Corona virus, Port and the AFL.

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On the French numbers, read earlier they’d only counted hospitalised deaths in their reporting but have now recognised deaths in nursing homes. Hence the large spike today with all previous nursing home deaths added today.

edit - 844 previously uncounted deaths added today. Still s**t.

UK aren't recognising people who've either died at home or in nursing homes, or probably those living on the streets either. Wouldn't be surprised if the US is like that as well.
 
We aren't going to see Globilisation disappear. However if this results in 'on-shoring' jobs or even just largely automated factories out of China back to the West it's good. If China comes out of this with no longer 'easy money and hence Power' from everything out-sourced there, as countries (people) are willing to pay a bit more to not be at their mercy (either from political pressure or due to a situation like this), it bodes well for the world's security across the next few decades.

It'd be nice to think that this pandemic prompts a rethink... Globalisation has some excellent positives but it's been pretty shithouse on some fronts.
 

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Latest reports are that the Federal Government is considering the Virgin offer of a bail out and stake in Virgin if the loan is not repaid. This will go against the grain for many in the Government who are ideologically oppsed to Government ownership but it may be the only way to ensure competition and prevent a Qantas monopoly.

All government bailouts should provide a piece of the company in return, as with any investment. It’s farcical that the taxpayer rescues these gigantic entities and has f**k all to show for it while the CEO’s pay themselves huge bonuses and buy back stock with the proceeds.
 
Serious questions,

Do we think treatments will appear before the end of winter? HIV drugs etc.... to me that's a relatively first step in treating the seriously ill.

and... no vaccine for 18months... Whats the reality of no football next year out of interest?
 
Have not disappeared - just busy with other things. A lot of what I have said contrary to the main view at the time that "We will be Italy in two weeks" has come to pass.
1) We are not Italy, the slowdown I predicted after the fly-ins from overseas stopped has happened (also my commentary on how demographics, typical social behaviour and weather impacting transmission and toxity of the virus appear to be playing out when you compare different countries and/ or different regions within countries).
2) Test, track and trace - and Australia's leading testing regime which I have been going on about for weeks with respect to % of cases captured vs others countries is now at the fore of public and media discourse, coupled with the fact we went a lot earlier and harder than most people realised at the time because of the fixation on 'infections detected' when comparing us to countries like italy has put us in a great position (limited community transmission so far).

What I would like to see now that we can be generally confident that we are identifying and locking down 'hot spots' as they arise and have limited community transmission, is a smarter way of containing the disease vs blanket universal bans via expanded fast testing and app tracking and alerts which could allow us to open up more quickly.

Still very much concerned around the lack of appropriate representation in the advisory Council at the Federal level (good to see this issue finally getting some air-time as well from jurnos and the opposition) and the suspension of civil liberties and increased powers of enforcement without appropriate sunset clauses in all instances.

Most concerned about secondary and unintended consequences of the world's actions to try and fight this via draconian lock downs, with the movement of food being the big one, as well as the viability of an ever expanding list of countries whose governments and/ or civil societies do not look like they will make it to the other end of this and what that means for both regional and global stability, as well as trade and recovery.
 

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Brett Sutton is Victoria's Chief Health Officer. He's an impressive speaker. A straight shooter who's butted heads with Australia's Chief Medical Officer in national hook-ups. He would like to see the federal government release its coronavirus modelling to the public and scientific community but that hasn't happened yet.

He said that a lot of the modelling done about a month ago was predicting gloomier outlooks than what we're seeing now. He sees that as a good sign - maybe we'll avoid the very big peaks predicted earlier. Still zero reason to take the foot off the brake.

I wanted to make this point the other day when I saw a post about the modelling. Things are changing so quickly that we basically need the models to be updated with new data daily. Enough time has passed now that the data should be more Australian based with less input from overseas cases.

It would be great if we able to see what inputs and assumptions the modelling is making and how this has changed over time with respect to severity of cases, development of treatments, earlier identification, hospital loading, etc.
 
That is not expanding the test regime it is contracting it.

You can be COVID-19 positive and contagious without exhibiting symtoms.
Nah, therewould be more people exhibiting symptoms than people still coming back from overseas
 
One of my sisters, imports high end dancewear apparel from a small Canadian manufacturer - the owner was a prima ballerina in Canada's national dance company and decided to make stuff better than the cheap imported junk that was on the market. My sister the other day saw something and thought maybe her Canadian manufacturer could make surgical masks, as a few days earlier they had a conversation and her friend was in tears because she thought she would have to liquidate the business as she hadn't had any sales in 3 weeks.

So my sister calls her up to make the suggestion and her friend says that 2 or 3 of them had just been in a meeting and thought the same thing and visited a Canadian government website that was set up to link up businesses so the government listed what they needed to purchase and businesses could then apply to which item(s) they could produce and the bureaucrats contacted the businesses to set up arrangements.

I hope our federal and state governments have set up something that simple and straightforward as in Canada. The manufacturer of Hockey masks and helmets for NHL teams and lower grades has swapped over to make masks and other PPE items for health services workers.


 
Have not disappeared - just busy with other things. A lot of what I have said contrary to the main view at the time that "We will be Italy in two weeks" has come to pass.
1) We are not Italy, the slowdown I predicted after the fly-ins from overseas stopped has happened (also my commentary on how demographics, typical social behaviour and weather impacting transmission and toxity of the virus appear to be playing out when you compare different countries and/ or different regions within countries).
2) Test, track and trace - and Australia's leading testing regime which I have been going on about for weeks with respect to % of cases captured vs others countries is now at the fore of public and media discourse, coupled with the fact we went a lot earlier and harder than most people realised at the time because of the fixation on 'infections detected' when comparing us to countries like italy has put us in a great position (limited community transmission so far).

What I would like to see now that we can be generally confident that we are identifying and locking down 'hot spots' as they arise and have limited community transmission, is a smarter way of containing the disease vs blanket universal bans via expanded fast testing and app tracking and alerts which could allow us to open up more quickly.

Still very much concerned around the lack of appropriate representation in the advisory Council at the Federal level (good to see this issue finally getting some air-time as well from jurnos and the opposition) and the suspension of civil liberties and increased powers of enforcement without appropriate sunset clauses in all instances.

Most concerned about secondary and unintended consequences of the world's actions to try and fight this via draconian lock downs, with the movement of food being the big one, as well as the viability of an ever expanding list of countries whose governments and/ or civil societies do not look like they will make it to the other end of this and what that means for both regional and global stability, as well as trade and recovery.


Not a single person in this thread said we would be "Italy in two weeks"

What was said was, if we didn't introduce tougher restrictions then this had the potential to get much worse.

You took issue with the tougher restrictions, saying they outweighed the benefit, but are now claiming some intellectual victory on calling the low results, which have been a direct result of the tough restrictions put in place. The same restrictions you refer to above as 'draconian'.
 
I wanted to make this point the other day when I saw a post about the modelling. Things are changing so quickly that we basically need the models to be updated with new data daily. Enough time has passed now that the data should be more Australian based with less input from overseas cases.

It would be great if we able to see what inputs and assumptions the modelling is making and how this has changed over time with respect to severity of cases, development of treatments, earlier identification, hospital loading, etc.
I saw part of Morrison's press conference today. He hinted that the government's modelling could be released as early as next week. It's being revised now in light of Australia's recent experience.

The public needs to have a better understanding of why the government is taking such strong action, especially now when things aren't dire. Quoting the number of predicted hospitalisations and deaths would help. We need to follow the lead of countries like New Zealand the USA.
 
Anybody watch 60 minutes on Sunday and the story about the virus and how China, covered it up, then lied how many cases there was, that deaths happen and then stuffed up President Xi Jinping let 5 million people leave Wuhan over 12 days from January 7th before they shut up shop??

They interviewed science journalist Laurie Garrett who is an emerging diseases expert and has reported on outbreak of SARS and Ebola and other emerging pandemics and epidemic threats . Got a degree in biology was doing graduate work in Bacteriology and Immunology, but started doing science reporting, never got her PHD and became a science journo.

Then by definition, she's not an expert. Journalists are trained to simplify very complex systems without the need to understand them. Often, most of the nuance and context is lost in this process which is why the current level of investigative journalism is trash.

She blames Xi for cover up and Trump for saying China did a top job with footage of him at Davos World Economic Forum said under control, only 1 person coming in from China and gonna be just fine, and also this tweet on 24th January, 25th China time and they already had around 2,000 reported cases and 50 deaths, but who knows how many really.



Why single out Trump when it has been established that China downplayed the severity of the outbreak and influenced the WHO to provide false information. Governments from all around the world had a terrible response to the outbreak because the early information was compromised by China.

She talks about being one of 3 scientific advisers for the 2011 movie Contagion, they did a lot of thinking about what to put in the move, but reckons now this is so far beyond what anybody imagined. They didn't have the whole world economy collapsing.

Gets asked - So in your imaginings is your government responding the way you imagined the way it would, the way it should??

Laughs - almost snorts - says "I'm sorry. You know we made a big mistake with that movie, because we never imagined an incompetent American government. So in all of our plotting the government was actually the hero. It was intervening to save the people and that's just not the way it's worked out. We've now had the president say openly more than on one occasion, that he's weighing in the balance, the future of the stock market, against dead bodies, in this country."

Government bureaucracies suffer incompetence on a scale that can't be appreciated unless you have worked in the system. It doesn't matter which political party is in charge.

At this point she's basically an anti-Trump hack. If there's evidence of Trump ignoring expert advice, withholding resources or similar, I'd like to see it.

Gets asked about Oz and says - "what you're experiencing right now is not the major assault in Australia. That will come with July and August. So when you go into your winter that's when Covid will really hit you."

She says we are still going to get hit, can't avoid it. "You are taking reasonable steps but not had the brunt end of this, and that's yet to come."

But Australia doesn't have the American government so why would we get it bad? (Her own logic).

This could of been avoided?? "Absolutely! Absolutely! And China knows it. Which is why they they are working so hard to create a different narrative that doesn't put the blame on Beijing."

This could well be the beginning of the end of China being the world's manufacturing hub.

The US and likely other developed economies will repatriate at least the more critical pharmaceuticals and health related products

 
One of my sisters, imports high end dancewear apparel from a small Canadian manufacturer - the owner was a prima ballerina in Canada's national dance company and decided to make stuff better than the cheap imported junk that was on the market. My sister the other day saw something and thought maybe her Canadian manufacturer could make surgical masks, as a few days earlier they had a conversation and her friend was in tears because she thought she would have to liquidate the business as she hadn't had any sales in 3 weeks.

So my sister calls her up to make the suggestion and her friend says that 2 or 3 of them had just been in a meeting and thought the same thing and visited a Canadian government website that was set up to link up businesses so the government listed what they needed to purchase and businesses could then apply to which item(s) they could produce and the bureaucrats contacted the businesses to set up arrangements.

I hope our federal and state governments have set up something that simple and straightforward as in Canada. The manufacturer of Hockey masks and helmets for NHL teams and lower grades has swapped over to make masks and other PPE items for health services workers.




According to Berejiklian this morning the NSW Government has something similar up and running. She was talking about hundreds of small manufacturers coming on board but I didn't catch it all. In SA we have seen Detmold switching from fast food packaging to making 140 million surgical masks. We have also seen a couple of distilleries switch to making alcohol based hand sanitiser.

The thing we really need to manufacture in this country, if we can, are test kits.
 
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