Coronavirus/COVID-19

[Old_Dog]

Okay I have given the original post a quick read and this is my summary:

Covid19 has been staged by Donald Trump as an excuse to get everyone into lockdown. But here's the thing: he's doing it for our own good. While we are in lockdown he is taking the opportunity to secretly take down every pedophile ring, drug cartel and basically all powerful forms of organised crime. He's waging a secret war on the evil elite which presumably wouldn't have been possible if we weren't in lockdown. We will come out of this on the other side no longer being enslaved to the financial elites and Trump will be unveiled as our saviour. Also, there is something going on with the British royal family. Pedophiles, Reptillians...perhaps both?

'Yeah nah'

 

[NBates]

Day 4 of the quarantine, was just too much for the cat.

 

[Optimistic Dog]

Unfortunately we won’t be offered either option. 2020 AFL season is over. They were bat s**t crazy to play round 1.

I am a simple man. Can someone explain to me if we keep getting less numbers each day and get down to zero. Then have no new cases for 28 days, let nobody in the country except returned aussies who are quarantined how is the corona going to spread. I must be missing something or the government are hiding something because most are saying we have not reached the peak yet and there is worst to come.

 

[NBates]

I am a simple man. Can someone explain to me if we keep getting less numbers each day and get down to zero. Then have no new cases for 28 days, let nobody in the country except returned aussies who are quarantined how is the corona going to spread. I must be missing something or the government are hiding something because most are saying we have not reached the peak yet and there is worst to come.

I think the same about all you've said. They'll probably extend it past 28 days for no new cases to make sure. Think they are too scared to say they've reached the peak yet in case it goes up again, but it looks like it's calming down. Might be an up and down thing over a week or 2. The only thing I think hasn't been made clear is how there may be carriers out there that don't show any signs - I guess that's why we're all in lock down. Hopefully these ppl who don't know they have it don't spread it if they do. My guess is after about 3 months from now we'll start opening up state by state until the nation can join together again. When we connect with the rest of the world tho, well....who knows. I'd say we're waiting for a vaccination for that and god know how long that will take. Overseas travel won't be happening until people going out of the country will be vaccinated. Who knows what will happen with ppl wanting to come into the country - will that only be allowed if they prove they've had a vaccination, or will it be when all Australians have been vaccinated?

 

[Hard Ball Get]

I am a simple man. Can someone explain to me if we keep getting less numbers each day and get down to zero. Then have no new cases for 28 days, let nobody in the country except returned aussies who are quarantined how is the corona going to spread. I must be missing something or the government are hiding something because most are saying we have not reached the peak yet and there is worst to come.

Ask Mattwa, apparently we're about to find out.

 

[dogwatch]

I am a simple man. Can someone explain to me if we keep getting less numbers each day and get down to zero. Then have no new cases for 28 days, let nobody in the country except returned aussies who are quarantined how is the corona going to spread. I must be missing something or the government are hiding something because most are saying we have not reached the peak yet and there is worst to come.

It's a simple and legitimate question but not easy to provide a very simple answer.

The first thing you need to understand is that SARS2/Covid19 is not going away. Not just any time soon, but ever. It's conceivable (but highly unlikely) that if we did everything perfectly we could see the virus disappear from the Australian population. I'd rate the likelihood of that at about 0.01% ie one in a million. But even if we did, it will still exist elsewhere in the world and will spring back into prominence as soon as local restrictions are eased or as it mutates (a bit like the flu never really goes away, it just mutates).

We will not get back to any sense of normality until two things happen (1) a vaccine is developed, produced in mass volumes and given to large numbers of people throughout Australia (2) there is herd immunity of at least 60%, preferably >75%. The first of these is expected to take 12-24 months although some optimists have suggested < 6 months. The second will take even longer unless there is a huge spike in infections (steepening of the curve, lots of deaths) which is exactly what we have bet the economy on NOT happening. The delivery of a mass vaccination program will help create herd immunity so mass vaccination may be a sufficient measure in itself.

The big concern is that the real number of cases is far more than we are measuring, even in Australia where the testing regime has been pretty good. The CMO Brendan Murphy has admitted as much himself. Up to now we have been testing only the more likely cases, i.e. people with classic COVID19 symptoms and/or with exposure to known cases. What is feared is that there are a lot of people who aren't even aware they have the virus and they are going about their normal daily life, even if it's somewhat circumscribed by social distancing measures. These people will inevitably infect others because there is a lower sense of risk. They are not in quarantine for a start. Thus community transmission will continue and probably grow although not to the extent that has happened in Italy, Spain and NY state as long as we maintain our social distancing measures.

It's that last clause - maintaining the social distancing - that is the key. That means most definitely no crowds, and almost certainly no footy in empty stadiums either (like we saw in Rd 1 this year).

Consider what we have lost in trying to get this pandemic under control. When

• you put the nation into an extra $200+ billion debt to flatten the curve,
• those measures will cause many businesses to fold and many millions of Australians to live in straitened circumstances,
• it will take severe austerity measures and higher taxes to pay off the debt
• those measures will have to last for maybe a decade,
• possibly thousands of people have already died,

you DO NOT readily say it's OK to go back to the footy again.

You probably wait until condition (1) has been met - ie the availability of an effective mass vaccine. When the governments are finally ready to ease restrictions slightly (anywhere from 3-12 months) their highest priority will be on getting the maximum number of people back to work safely rather than watching a game of footy. AFL is one of the least safe businesses that can resume so it won't be at the top of any government's priorities.

Will we have a period of 28 days without any new cases? Sorry mate, it's just not going to happen this year. Maybe late 2021 if we're lucky, but I doubt it.

 

[Dogs_r_barking]

I don’t know how any well adjusted individual from Australia can defend Sharia Law. It flies in the face of the most fundamental values we all take for granted.

There is a vast leap from defending a Muslim individual’s good character to defending an archaic set of laws.

I would not wish to live anywhere where blasphemy is a crime.

Not sure that you read the whole article that i put the link up for, but like Islam, Christianity has been perverted so often to reflect the power structure of the religious leaders. Let's not forget some of the sects all based on some form of Christianity, some have lead to mass suicides and murder. Some like the Catholic Church took on pagan rites i.e. with burning incense, Christmas trees, and tortured people to death who did not completely adopt their view of Christianity.

We have had bitter wars across Europe for centuries over variations in the form of Christianity, one of the most recent in Ireland based on Protestants and Catholics, two different forms of Christianity, the Crusades attacked and ransacked countries that were in fact Christian such as Constantinople. Some forms of Christianity won't accept gays in the church, other's have gay ministers. Christianity works under the 10 Commandments as decreed by god. What is the difference between that and Sharia law? It is a guide to living well and doing the right thing such as giving welfare etc think of it as a guideline.

And in case you haven't bothered to read all the article which I suspect, it goes on to say that some countries like Saudi Arabia follow a very old archaic form of Sharia Law, no surprise Obama Bin laden was a Saudi. Haj, allows Muslims to adapt to modern day worlds and most Muslim countries have. (Saudi Arabia doesn't get criticised by the Western world as much as it should because of the economic ties America and Australia has with it).

 

[Optimistic Dog]

It's a simple and legitimate question but not easy to provide a very simple answer.

The first thing you need to understand is that SARS2/Covid19 is not going away. Not just any time soon, but ever. It's conceivable (but highly unlikely) that if we did everything perfectly we could see the virus disappear from the Australian population. I'd rate the likelihood of that at about 0.01% ie one in a million. But even if we did, it will still exist elsewhere in the world and will spring back into prominence as soon as local restrictions are eased or as it mutates (a bit like the flu never really goes away, it just mutates).

We will not get back to any sense of normality until two things happen (1) a vaccine is developed, produced in mass volumes and given to large numbers of people throughout Australia (2) there is herd immunity of at least 60%, preferably >75%. The first of these is expected to take 12-24 months although some optimists have suggested < 6 months. The second will take even longer unless there is a huge spike in infections (steepening of the curve, lots of deaths) which is exactly what we have bet the economy on NOT happening. The delivery of a mass vaccination program will help create herd immunity so mass vaccination may be a sufficient measure in itself.

The big concern is that the real number of cases is far more than we are measuring, even in Australia where the testing regime has been pretty good. The CMO Brendan Murphy has admitted as much himself. Up to now we have been testing only the more likely cases, i.e. people with classic COVID19 symptoms and/or with exposure to known cases. What is feared is that there are a lot of people who aren't even aware they have the virus and they are going about their normal daily life, even if it's somewhat circumscribed by social distancing measures. These people will inevitably infect others because there is a lower sense of risk. They are not in quarantine for a start. Thus community transmission will continue and probably grow although not to the extent that has happened in Italy, Spain and NY state as long as we maintain our social distancing measures.

It's that last clause - maintaining the social distancing - that is the key. That means most definitely no crowds, and almost certainly no footy in empty stadiums either (like we saw in Rd 1 this year).

Consider what we have lost in trying to get this pandemic under control. When

• you put the nation into an extra $200+ billion debt to flatten the curve,
• those measures will cause many businesses to fold and many millions of Australians to live in straitened circumstances,
• it will take severe austerity measures and higher taxes to pay off the debt
• those measures will have to last for maybe a decade,
• possibly thousands of people have already died,

you DO NOT readily say it's OK to go back to the footy again.

You probably wait until condition (1) has been met - ie the availability of an effective mass vaccine. When the governments are finally ready to ease restrictions slightly (anywhere from 3-12 months) their highest priority will be on getting the maximum number of people back to work safely rather than watching a game of footy. AFL is one of the least safe businesses that can resume so it won't be at the top of any government's priorities.

Will we have a period of 28 days without any new cases? Sorry mate, it's just not going to happen this year. Maybe late 2021 if we're lucky, but I doubt it.

So simply put we are stuffed until we get a vaccine that can be supplied in bulk and the best case of going to the footy again 2021 but could be 2022.

 

[dogwatch]

So simply put we are stuffed until we get a vaccine that can be supplied in bulk and the best case of going to the footy again 2021 but could be 2022.

No, I wouldn't say that's the best case. I think some form of footy this year is still a chance but if it happened it'd be heavily compromised. I understand why the AFL and all its stakeholders want to salvage something from this year but I think a not-quite-normal 2021 is the most likely outcome.

Yes, worst case is 2022 but I think that's very unlikely.

I'll post some thoughts later today/tonight on the footy thread for COVID19. This one is more for general discussion of COVID19. The other one is for more footy specific matters.

Opinion - What will footy look like after Covid-19?

Seemed like this was a topic that warranted its own thread. As Rohan Connolly remarked in an article this morning there is an army of under-utilised footy journos and TV-based ex-players (presumably sticking to TV because they are only semi-literate) who have nothing to write about. So they're...

www.bigfooty.com

 

[D Mitchell]

....We have had bitter wars across Europe for centuries over variations in the form of Christianity, one of the most recent in Ireland based on Protestants and Catholics, two different forms of Christianity, the Crusades attacked and ransacked countries that were in fact Christian such as Constantinople. ...).

Religious wars aren't about religion at all, religion is a badge, an element of tribe, like football jumpers. The "war", if you can call it that, in Northern Ireland, what the locals called the "Troubles", developed out of a civil rights movement in the 1960s. It was about jobs, housing, discrimination and political power. The Crusades were essentially about territory, a stand against invading Turks. That's about as simplistic as I can make it.

 

[Mattdougie]

It's a simple and legitimate question but not easy to provide a very simple answer.

The first thing you need to understand is that SARS2/Covid19 is not going away. Not just any time soon, but ever. It's conceivable (but highly unlikely) that if we did everything perfectly we could see the virus disappear from the Australian population. I'd rate the likelihood of that at about 0.01% ie one in a million. But even if we did, it will still exist elsewhere in the world and will spring back into prominence as soon as local restrictions are eased or as it mutates (a bit like the flu never really goes away, it just mutates).

We will not get back to any sense of normality until two things happen (1) a vaccine is developed, produced in mass volumes and given to large numbers of people throughout Australia (2) there is herd immunity of at least 60%, preferably >75%. The first of these is expected to take 12-24 months although some optimists have suggested < 6 months. The second will take even longer unless there is a huge spike in infections (steepening of the curve, lots of deaths) which is exactly what we have bet the economy on NOT happening. The delivery of a mass vaccination program will help create herd immunity so mass vaccination may be a sufficient measure in itself.

The big concern is that the real number of cases is far more than we are measuring, even in Australia where the testing regime has been pretty good. The CMO Brendan Murphy has admitted as much himself. Up to now we have been testing only the more likely cases, i.e. people with classic COVID19 symptoms and/or with exposure to known cases. What is feared is that there are a lot of people who aren't even aware they have the virus and they are going about their normal daily life, even if it's somewhat circumscribed by social distancing measures. These people will inevitably infect others because there is a lower sense of risk. They are not in quarantine for a start. Thus community transmission will continue and probably grow although not to the extent that has happened in Italy, Spain and NY state as long as we maintain our social distancing measures.

It's that last clause - maintaining the social distancing - that is the key. That means most definitely no crowds, and almost certainly no footy in empty stadiums either (like we saw in Rd 1 this year).

Consider what we have lost in trying to get this pandemic under control. When

• you put the nation into an extra $200+ billion debt to flatten the curve,
• those measures will cause many businesses to fold and many millions of Australians to live in straitened circumstances,
• it will take severe austerity measures and higher taxes to pay off the debt
• those measures will have to last for maybe a decade,
• possibly thousands of people have already died,

you DO NOT readily say it's OK to go back to the footy again.

You probably wait until condition (1) has been met - ie the availability of an effective mass vaccine. When the governments are finally ready to ease restrictions slightly (anywhere from 3-12 months) their highest priority will be on getting the maximum number of people back to work safely rather than watching a game of footy. AFL is one of the least safe businesses that can resume so it won't be at the top of any government's priorities.

Will we have a period of 28 days without any new cases? Sorry mate, it's just not going to happen this year. Maybe late 2021 if we're lucky, but I doubt it.

Sorry all this doom and gloom a lot of blokes have put on here since day one proves to be so far off as every day passes.

I won’t name names by apparently we were going to be worse than Italy and have hundreds of thousands of cases and blah blah blah.

I Expect this year to mainly be a right off but I’d be surprised if things aren’t back to a form of normality in early 2021 at latest in Australia.

Human trials for a vaccine are being fast tracked and could be available in early 2021 or even faster, the time span seems to shorten every week.

Add to that if we are still in this lockdown period all of next year we will have a lot more issues than the virus to deal with

 

[NBates]

I find it strange that most people who have died from the virus are virtually being hidden (bar one or two). I get that people need their privacy, but I think that if we saw the faces of those that have lost their lives it might make it 'real' for idiots who don't give a F. Maybe it's that some people who have had it and survived have been ostracised and have copped anger from their community (not that some don't deserve it).

 

[dogwatch]

Sorry all this doom and gloom a lot of blokes have put on here since day one proves to be so far off as every day passes.

I won’t name names by apparently we were going to be worse than Italy and have hundreds of thousands of cases and blah blah blah.

I Expect this year to mainly be a right off but I’d be surprised if things aren’t back to a form of normality in early 2021 at latest in Australia.

Human trials for a vaccine are being fast tracked and could be available in early 2021 or even faster, the time span seems to shorten every week.

Add to that if we are still in this lockdown period all of next year we will have a lot more issues than the virus to deal with

You appear to be contradicting yourself MD. You're saying that the "doom and gloom ... proves to be so far off" yet you say that you expect this year will be a write-off and that things will return to some form of normality in 2021. Well that's what the so-called doom and gloom people are saying.

I can't recall anyone here saying we're going to be worse off than Italy.
I can't recall anyone here saying we're going to be in lockdown all of next year.
If anyone has said that here they would be a small minority. Most are echoing what the authorities are suggesting - around 6 months of the current level of restrictions.

The numbers lately have been good. That's fantastic but all we've done is flatten the curve. (So far ... fingers crossed it stays that way.) The federal and state governments have been saying since day one that if we succeed in flattening the curve it'll save lives but it means the pandemic and the measures to control it will go on for longer. Nothing in that has changed.

 

[Mattdougie]

You appear to be contradicting yourself MD. You're saying that the "doom and gloom ... proves to be so far off" yet you say that you expect this year will be a write-off and that things will return to some form of normality in 2021. Well that's what the so-called doom and gloom people are saying.

I can't recall anyone here saying we're going to be worse off than Italy.
I can't recall anyone here saying we're going to be in lockdown all of next year.
If anyone has said that here they would be a small minority. Most are echoing what the authorities are suggesting - around 6 months of the current level of restrictions.

The numbers lately have been good. That's fantastic but all we've done is flatten the curve. (So far ... fingers crossed it stays that way.) The federal and state governments have been saying since day one that if we succeed in flattening the curve it'll save lives but it means the pandemic and the measures to control it will go on for longer. Nothing in that has changed.

Go back and have a look then, several people said we will have tens of thousands of infections and get to Italy levels. Unlike others I won’t troll back to point things out but it was said and said by a few

My meaning was I think this FOOTY year is cooked because I can’t see it starting before July at the very earliest. I see a huge amount of morons out this long weekend which will add to the length of isolation. Everyday there are more people out yay don’t need to be so there is no way they are staying home over a 4 day weekend.

They will take conservative Steps to unwind these isolation levels so that will also take longer than probably necessary to stay on the safe side. And I said early 2021 but some have mentioned 2022 while prefacing that’s worst case(doom and gloom)

We are no where near what the some of the people at the start said we would get to and that’s great for us and let’s hope it continues

 

[maddog37]

It’s the ultimate version of things are never as good or as bad as they seem.

 

[NBates]

Religious wars aren't about religion at all, religion is a badge, an element of tribe, like football jumpers. The "war", if you can call it that, in Northern Ireland, what the locals called the "Troubles", developed out of a civil rights movement in the 1960s. It was about jobs, housing, discrimination and political power. The Crusades were essentially about territory, a stand against invading Turks. That's about as simplistic as I can make it.

Religion is also interpreted into what suits ulterior motives at the time.

C of E - out of RC's because it didn't suit Henry XIII (divorce). I've forgotten my next example. Long story. Bored. 2 vino's in.

I don't know anything about Mohammed, but JC was actually a rebel. I've got a lot of respect for him as a person, but he'd be mortified at the catholic church. Look at their riches. Plus he hung around with a prostitute which should mortify the RC's, but you never hear about that...

If you'd read my past post (which I assume most skip, lol!) you realise I'm from strict Catholic descent.

I need amusement tonight - if anyone can oblige I would be eternally grateful.

 

[ossie_21]

Why is everything always a competition between who is (apparently) right or wrong? Always got to be a he said she said thing going on, despite very few people if any said it would be worse than Italy.

A few people said we don’t want to go down that path, with all these restrictions & more time on our side once it was known what the world was dealing with, it doesn’t appear we will but this is something not going away any time soon.

 

[dogwatch]

Go back and have a look then, several people said we will have tens of thousands of infections and get to Italy levels. Unlike others I won’t troll back to point things out but it was said and said by a few

My meaning was I think this FOOTY year is cooked because I can’t see it starting before July at the very earliest. I see a huge amount of morons out this long weekend which will add to the length of isolation. Everyday there are more people out yay don’t need to be so there is no way they are staying home over a 4 day weekend.

They will take conservative Steps to unwind these isolation levels so that will also take longer than probably necessary to stay on the safe side. And I said early 2021 but some have mentioned 2022 while prefacing that’s worst case(doom and gloom)

We are no where near what the some of the people at the start said we would get to and that’s great for us and let’s hope it continues

No I think the onus is on you to go back and find them since you made the claim. I’m happy to be proved wrong. I could believe there might have been a small number, but as I said I can’t recall any.

As for footy not starting until 2022, were you referring to my above post? If so, yes when specifically asked I said 2022 would be a worst case because I couldn’t completely rule it out but I’d be very surprised. My expectation for a near normal season (2021) is the same as yours. You also didn’t mention my best case which is a compromised 2020. Same as yours.

Or was it somebody else whose genuine expectation is no footy until 2022?

Incidentally I was just listening to some news discussion of vaccine development. The bottom line is they are still saying 12 months from now. My hope is there will be unprecedented international collaboration on this and we may be able to beat that ... 6-8 months would be a brilliant result but it still has to be produced in vast numbers - at least 15-20 million doses in Australia alone. Then it has to get out and be administered to every recipient. All that takes many weeks and probably months.

 

[Mattdougie]

No I think the onus is on you to go back and find them since you made the claim. I’m happy to be proved wrong. I could believe there might have been a small number, but as I said I can’t recall any.

As for footy not starting until 2022, were you referring to my above post? If so, yes when specifically asked I said 2022 would be a worst case because I couldn’t completely rule it out but I’d be very surprised. My expectation for a near normal season (2021) is the same as yours. You also didn’t mention my best case which is a compromised 2020. Same as yours.

Or was it somebody else whose genuine expectation is no footy until 2022?

Incidentally I was just listening to some news discussion of vaccine development. The bottom line is they are still saying 12 months from now. My hope is there will be unprecedented international collaboration on this and we may be able to beat that ... 6-8 months would be a brilliant result but it still has to be produced in vast numbers - at least 15-20 million doses in Australia alone. Then it has to get out and be administered to every recipient. All that takes many weeks and probably months.

Lol of course it is

Stay safe I can’t be bothered going round in circles or spending hours in a d!ck measuring contest to prove I’m right or wrong

In fact one of the people that liked one of your comments was pulled up for EXACTLY what I said

Anyway stay safe

 

[Sentinel]

Lol of course it is

Stay safe I can’t be bothered going round in circles or spending hours in a d!ck measuring contest to prove I’m right or wrong

In fact one of the people that liked one of your comments was pulled up for EXACTLY what I said

Anyway stay safe

Presuming you're referring to me - please, quote me where I said 10s of thousands of infections (which we may still get to) or as bad as Italy. I'd love to see it.

 

[D Mitchell]

Religion is also interpreted into what suits ulterior motives at the time.

C of E - out of RC's because it didn't suit Henry XIII (divorce). I've forgotten my next example. Long story. Bored. 2 vino's in.

I don't know anything about Mohammed, but JC was actually a rebel. ...

"Render unto Caesar the things that are Caesar's and to God the things that are Gods." Matthew 22:21. He didn't lead a rebellion against the Roman Empire. He submitted to Pilate. I'd have thought Visionary rather than a rebel.

 

[wayniac]

Australia never vaccinated routinely for smallpox. I was in the UK when we had some quite severe outbreaks in the early 60's. The disease was re-introduced by Pakistani migrants and the UK government quickly move to vaccinate.

It is interesting to read how smallpox was eradicated, the last few cases the result of lab accidents. In the wide world, the last case was I believe in Bangladesh.

The reason Australia never vaccinated was its relative isolation and strict quarantine regulations. There were no outbreaks here, although the British tried to kill off some indigenous people in NSW in the 19th century using pox infected goods.

The history of smallpox vaccination dates back to the 10th century where the Chinese would vaccinate using cowpox or monkey pox which stimulate the immune response against smallpoc variola virus.

The strategy our authorities are pursuing is similar, although we have a lot more tavel than the 50's and 60's when smallpox affected most of the world.

Infected people had a 30% mortality with smallpox. Horrific.

 

[NBates]

"Render unto Caesar the things that are Caesar's and to God the things that are Gods." Matthew 22:21. He didn't lead a rebellion against the Roman Empire. He submitted to Pilate. I'd have thought Visionary rather than a rebel.

Can you put that in basic person speak? Not being a smartarse!

I'm free tonight. Having a few bevvies and listening to best Sports vinyl ever.

Underrated- like moi!

Sent from my SM-A505YN using Tapatalk

 

[Draft Pick]

Lol of course it is

Stay safe I can’t be bothered going round in circles or spending hours in a d!ck measuring contest to prove I’m right or wrong

In fact one of the people that liked one of your comments was pulled up for EXACTLY what I said

Anyway stay safe

Perhaps the authorities here have done a good job in ensuring we didn’t become like Italy. Just because it hasn’t panned out that way dose not meant that it wasn’t a possibility a few weeks ago when those posts were written.

 

[Sentinel]

Perhaps the authorities here have done a good job in ensuring we didn’t become like Italy. Just because it hasn’t panned out that way dose not meant that it wasn’t a possibility a few weeks ago when those posts were written.

One thing that's for sure is whoever so confidently said the fatality rate of COVID-19 was below the flu, and that the best way of dealing with this is to lock up the sick and elderly and let everyone else carry on like normal, was wrong.

And is in no position to be telling lies and exaggerations about what others have said in this thread to try and prove a point.