AFL 2020 - AFL Round 6

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Placed a reasonable sized futures bet with a bookie yesterday and they’ve since banned me. Everytime I try place a bet, no matter the sport, I receive a message saying “Bet rejected. Exceeding liability limit.” Funny thing was they accepted a deposit shortly before I began receiving the messages...
 

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First match of the round brings us the highest predicted total. Happy to keep it nice and simple.

Dangerfield 4/5 this year
Ablett 3/5
Neale 4/5

2.5u Dangerfield AGS $1.88 (BE)
2.5u Ablett AGS $1.87 (lads)
2.5u Neale AGS $2 (BE)
 
Zac Bailey playing more of a small forward role this year. Kicked a goal in the last 3 games
AGS $2.80 on 365
 
What are people’s thoughts on GEEvBRIS tomorrow? Most and 3rd most attacking teams and they are conceding plenty too which makes me think we are in for a high scoring game tomorrow.

My Hail Marys >

Rohan, Miers, Dangerfield AGS $6.27 (Lads)
Happened 3/5 times this season

Rohan, Miers, Dangerfield, Duncan, Dahlhaus, Ablett AGS $59.21 (Lads)
*Laugh at me but it’s already happened 2/5 times this season
I'd guess in winning sides.
 

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Been up all night doing this? Half time during epl matches?
Love your work buddy!!!

On SM-G930F using BigFooty.com mobile app

EPL matches are a nightmare at times, the number of goals scored during the last 10mins turns good winning bets into losing ones.

I also seem to get screwed the longer the injury time is too, lol. But I digress.
 
Obviously a degree of bias but Geelong blowing out to $2.40 feels overs.
That should be the odds at the Gabba not a neutral venue.
A degree of (anti)bias here too but 1.70 for Richmond makes me want to come out of betting hiatus and unload. Sydney's injury list is comparably bad (no talls) and are just a much, much worse team.
 
Placed a reasonable sized futures bet with a bookie yesterday and they’ve since banned me. Everytime I try place a bet, no matter the sport, I receive a message saying “Bet rejected. Exceeding liability limit.” Funny thing was they accepted a deposit shortly before I began receiving the messages...
Betfair alternative? The corps ban winning punters, they'll happily often take big bets though so maybe they've flagged you as a dangerous account for them
 
Why are people fixated on the 10 disposal market. Its 1.01-1.08 odds ffs, hardly worth looking at let alone adding to SGM

Probably because at those odds, they want to add 10 legs of 1.08 to make ~$2 bet.
 
A degree of (anti)bias here too but 1.70 for Richmond makes me want to come out of betting hiatus and unload. Sydney's injury list is comparably bad (no talls) and are just a much, much worse team.
Proceed with caution.

No Lynch, Astbury, Houli, Edwards, Prestia, Cotchin, Nankervis at a minimum. That's probably 5 of our best 10 and our number 1 ruckman.
Secondly, the group has been flat all year and I don't see them loving going into the hub and that might take some time to adjust. Since the COVID break, we have struggled to score even in Melbourne.

Not saying we won't win, but you might want to gather some data of how we handle the hub before putting a big bet on.
 
TAB Todays Offers

Danger, Neale both 20+ disposals @3.50.
Max bet $50.

Dont mind this

On SM-G930F using BigFooty.com mobile app
I usually stay away from these type of specials as some are just the ultimate suck in, but that's decent odds for those very reliable and long term consistent players and I'll nibble with a small bet.
 
Proceed with caution.

No Lynch, Astbury, Houli, Edwards, Prestia, Cotchin, Nankervis at a minimum. That's probably 5 of our best 10 and our number 1 ruckman.
Secondly, the group has been flat all year and I don't see them loving going into the hub and that might take some time to adjust. Since the COVID break, we have struggled to score even in Melbourne.

Not saying we won't win, but you might want to gather some data of how we handle the hub before putting a big bet on.
Yep given the environment I find it hard to justify smashing any market even if they look enticing

Way too many variables to factor in this year
 

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