Time to land the next big fish

Just wanted to have a bit of a look at this to see if it is correct.

So I will look at each draft 2005-2015 to see where the best mids are coming from. I will make my criteria that you have to be recognised as being around the level of best 2-3 mids in a top 6 type team for at least about 5 seasons, or look a near certainty to do so in order to make the cut. This way we sort of match your probably loosely applied statement of “generational midfielder." I will split these guys into top 10 picks, later first round picks, and lower round picks.

Top 10 picks: Marc Murphy, Dale Thomas, Scott Pendlebury, Bryce Gibbs, Travis Boak, Joel Selwood, Trent Cotchin, Patrick Dangerfield, Tom Scully, Dustin Martin, Ben Cunnington, David Swallow, Andrew Gaff, Dyson Heppell, Dion Prestia, Stephen Coniglio, Lachie Whitfield, Jake Stringer, Jack Macrae, Ollie Wines, Josh Kelly, Jack Billings, Marcus Bontempelli, Chris Petracca, Angus Brayshaw, Jordan De Goey, Clayton Oliver, Jacob Hopper

Later first round picks(11-20 I will make this): Shaun Higgins, Callan Ward, Steele Sidebottom, Luke Shuey, Nathan Fyfe, Isaac Smith, Patrick Cripps, Isaac Heeney(academy)

Lower round picks: Josh Kennedy(f/s) Jack Steven, Dayne Beams, Dan Hannebery, Rory Sloane, Michael Walters, Mitch Duncan, Luke Parker, Tom Liberatore(f/s) Toby Greene, Tom Mitchell(f/s) Brad Hill, Lachie Neale, Jack Viney(f/s) Zach Merrett, Jack Steele, Touk Miller, Josh Dunkley

Rookie or other draft picks: Michael Barlow, Kane Lambert

So it is roughly a 50-50 split, 28 taken top 10 and 29 thereafter, but when you consider that several of those who were father/sons and academy players would be top 10 now, it could probably be more like a 32 top 10 and 25 non-top 10 split. By the time you get past pick 20 it gets pretty sparse and then once you hit the rookie draft it is virtually crickets.

Then you consider the quality of those taken top 10 versus those outside.

If I picked the top ten top 10 picks it might be Pendlebury, Dangerfield, Martin, Cotchin, Whitfield, Kelly, Bontempelli, Petracca, De Goey, Selwood.

The top 10 from outside the top 10 not including academy or f/s selections: Fyfe, Sidebottom, Higgins, Cripps, Walters, Greene, Neale, Ward, Smith, Hill.

I would say it is fair to say at least slightly the better midfielder are coming from inside the top 10 compared to lower picks. But on average, there are maybe 2 guys per draft taken outside the top 10 who go on to get roughly to the level of best 2-3 mids in a top 6 team for at least 5 years.

Richmond has done exceptionally well from its top 10 picks invested in mids in that time. Cotchin Martin Prestia Conca Vlastuin were probably all attempts to get a gun mid from a top 10 pick. We draft 2 Brownlow Medallists Cotchin, Martin, traded in Premiership year B & F winner Prestia, got a brilliant backman in Vlastuin and fell below expectations but still got an ok player in Conca.

Our non top 10 picks have produced Lambert, Edwards and now Bolton who have been around that level or in Bolton’s case look near certs to get to that level as mids as well.

Would I trade away say picks 15 and 20 to get inside the top 10, probably gets you around pick 9 or 10 to try to get a gun mid in the draft? Probably not, as most of the nailed on gun mids seem to be gone in the top 5 picks. Would I maybe package a useful player, picks 15 and 20 to get to around pick 5 or 6? So trading out Coleman-Jones for pick 20, package that with say Nankervis and our first rounder to get to maybe pick 5 or 6? I might consider that but you would want to be avoiding heavily compromised drafts, which 2020 looks like being.

We are doing really well with our drafting, but I do agree the club should be trying to figure out how to get the next gun mid in the door. Not easy though.


To paraphrase the genuine obvious top players tend to go very early, then it slowly drops off. So unless you're inside top 5 or so there's a trade off of number of picks and quality of picks. i.e. would you be better with pick 10 or say picks 18 and 20? Trading 18 and 20 might get you 10. But in terms of likelihood of getting stars you probably aren't better off.

So getting a top 5 pick is worth gold for A grade talent. After that you really need to make some careful calculations.
 
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Oliver would burn in a club right Richmond. He's the one i would take.
Gaddy would burst a pooper valve.

The debate about big midfielders is interesting .None of Ports midfielders on the weekend were bigger t han 187 cm .
We had the biggest midfielder on the ground in Dusty .
Boak ,Wines ,and Rockliff smaller and lighter only Powell Pepper is the same weight as Dusty .

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Yeah but our second-biggest mid was Shai.

Wines is fatter than Dusty btw

The Dogs love him to bits and rightfully so.

He'd be tough to extract, Bevo needs good examples and he's not the sort of coach to willingly go into 'rebuild' mode.
He's still in build mode. We won't get anyone good from there. They're young, they think than can win another flag. Bont's only 25.

The mid who might get shaken out of the kennel is Neckbrace Maclean. But I don't want him.

Gonna go out on a limb and say Dow will be elite. RCD probably your Hugh Greenwood type. I reckon we chase a promising early twenties type struggling for opportunities rather than a Reel Big Fish.
We could do with a Hugh Greenwood type. Why didn't we get Hugh Greenwood?

I wouldn't be going for a wines/crouch type, CCJ will almost certainly leave in my opinion so we should be looking at packaging up the pick we get for him with our first rounder to get into the top 10 and get our next guy that can carry the midfield for 10 years. Guys like Ross, Collier Dawkins, Dow can be very good players but generally speaking your generational mids come from the top 10.
That's probably the right strategy if he does leave, if we have a target in mind.

Treloar like 😀
He’s classy but very outside and will be asking big $$
Treloar's as classy as a Collingwood smile.
 

Charlie Pannam

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Gaddy would burst a pooper valve.


Yeah but our second-biggest mid was Shai.

Wines is fatter than Dusty btw


He's still in build mode. We won't get anyone good from there. They're young, they think than can win another flag. Bont's only 25.

The mid who might get shaken out of the kennel is Neckbrace Maclean. But I don't want him.


We could do with a Hugh Greenwood type. Why didn't we get Hugh Greenwood?


That's probably the right strategy if he does leave, if we have a target in mind.


Treloar's as classy as a Collingwood smile.
Classy Kelly
 

Barnard

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Just wanted to have a bit of a look at this to see if it is correct.

So I will look at each draft 2005-2015 to see where the best mids are coming from. I will make my criteria that you have to be recognised as being around the level of best 2-3 mids in a top 6 type team for at least about 5 seasons, or look a near certainty to do so in order to make the cut. This way we sort of match your probably loosely applied statement of “generational midfielder." I will split these guys into top 10 picks, later first round picks, and lower round picks.

Top 10 picks: Marc Murphy, Dale Thomas, Scott Pendlebury, Bryce Gibbs, Travis Boak, Joel Selwood, Trent Cotchin, Patrick Dangerfield, Tom Scully, Dustin Martin, Ben Cunnington, David Swallow, Andrew Gaff, Dyson Heppell, Dion Prestia, Stephen Coniglio, Lachie Whitfield, Jake Stringer, Jack Macrae, Ollie Wines, Josh Kelly, Jack Billings, Marcus Bontempelli, Chris Petracca, Angus Brayshaw, Jordan De Goey, Clayton Oliver, Jacob Hopper

Later first round picks(11-20 I will make this): Shaun Higgins, Callan Ward, Steele Sidebottom, Luke Shuey, Nathan Fyfe, Isaac Smith, Patrick Cripps, Isaac Heeney(academy)

Lower round picks: Josh Kennedy(f/s) Jack Steven, Dayne Beams, Dan Hannebery, Rory Sloane, Michael Walters, Mitch Duncan, Luke Parker, Tom Liberatore(f/s) Toby Greene, Tom Mitchell(f/s) Brad Hill, Lachie Neale, Jack Viney(f/s) Zach Merrett, Jack Steele, Touk Miller, Josh Dunkley

Rookie or other draft picks: Michael Barlow, Kane Lambert

So it is roughly a 50-50 split, 28 taken top 10 and 29 thereafter, but when you consider that several of those who were father/sons and academy players would be top 10 now, it could probably be more like a 32 top 10 and 25 non-top 10 split. By the time you get past pick 20 it gets pretty sparse and then once you hit the rookie draft it is virtually crickets.

Then you consider the quality of those taken top 10 versus those outside.

If I picked the top ten top 10 picks it might be Pendlebury, Dangerfield, Martin, Cotchin, Whitfield, Kelly, Bontempelli, Petracca, De Goey, Selwood.

The top 10 from outside the top 10 not including academy or f/s selections: Fyfe, Sidebottom, Higgins, Cripps, Walters, Greene, Neale, Ward, Smith, Hill.

I would say it is fair to say at least slightly the better midfielder are coming from inside the top 10 compared to lower picks. But on average, there are maybe 2 guys per draft taken outside the top 10 who go on to get roughly to the level of best 2-3 mids in a top 6 team for at least 5 years.

Richmond has done exceptionally well from its top 10 picks invested in mids in that time. Cotchin Martin Prestia Conca Vlastuin were probably all attempts to get a gun mid from a top 10 pick. We draft 2 Brownlow Medallists Cotchin, Martin, traded in Premiership year B & F winner Prestia, got a brilliant backman in Vlastuin and fell below expectations but still got an ok player in Conca.

Our non top 10 picks have produced Lambert, Edwards and now Bolton who have been around that level or in Bolton’s case look near certs to get to that level as mids as well.

Would I trade away say picks 15 and 20 to get inside the top 10, probably gets you around pick 9 or 10 to try to get a gun mid in the draft? Probably not, as most of the nailed on gun mids seem to be gone in the top 5 picks. Would I maybe package a useful player, picks 15 and 20 to get to around pick 5 or 6? So trading out Coleman-Jones for pick 20, package that with say Nankervis and our first rounder to get to maybe pick 5 or 6? I might consider that but you would want to be avoiding heavily compromised drafts, which 2020 looks like being.

We are doing really well with our drafting, but I do agree the club should be trying to figure out how to get the next gun mid in the door. Not easy though.
Yeah mate, I didn't have the time to go into that much detail, but I think you pretty much got where I was coming from, for me I would rather be going to try and find our next dusty/Cotch type guys that will carry us for a decade, your always going to have your other star players but these guys have that something extra special and with Trent it's more about his leadership the last 4-5 years that's made him an all time great. Rance and Riewoldt are the 2 other guys I put in the same category with Balta showing traits he could one day get somewhere near that level.
 

Dr Awkward

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I agree, we have shown that we can draft great value players but at some point we will need the next superstar for the transition from the loss of Rance, Riewoldt and Cotchin.

Our young guys of the likes of Ross, RCD, Higgins etc are players that can be components of a winning team but you need to start with 3 or 4 superstars usually.
 

Damo80

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If there's one good thing about filling that inside wrecking ball role, it's that you don't necessarily need the most talented player (think Tuck, Jackson in years gone by). Certainly doesn't hurt though, if they've got some pace and disposal skills!

I actually think Ross has the potential to play a Cotchin style role. Not expecting to a Cotchin level, but play the role.

How do we envisage guys like Dow and Will Martyn developing? Dow has sounded somewhat promising based on reserves/scratch match performances

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I agree, we have shown that we can draft great value players but at some point we will need the next superstar for the transition from the loss of Rance, Riewoldt and Cotchin.

Our young guys of the likes of Ross, RCD, Higgins etc are players that can be components of a winning team but you need to start with 3 or 4 superstars usually.
Agree.
 
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Bolton Balta and CJ are all contracted until 21 Chol I’m not sure.

But I reckon it’d be smart to extend their contracts prior to chasing any big names.

You don’t want to get to the situation next year where you are struggling to re-sign one or more of them due to cap pressure

Bolton and Balta in particular may be better than anything else up for offer. Always look after your homegrown talent first imo
Chol is too
 

Dr Awkward

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Chol is one if he continues an upward trajectory could break into top 5 - 10 big men in the comp.

His ruckwork is a bit average, I'd be interested to see how he goes as a permanent forward if Riewoldt or Lynch are out for a game
 
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Would I trade away say picks 15 and 20 to get inside the top 10, probably gets you around pick 9 or 10 to try to get a gun mid in the draft? Probably not, as most of the nailed on gun mids seem to be gone in the top 5 picks. Would I maybe package a useful player, picks 15 and 20 to get to around pick 5 or 6? So trading out Coleman-Jones for pick 20, package that with say Nankervis and our first rounder to get to maybe pick 5 or 6? I might consider that but you would want to be avoiding heavily compromised drafts, which 2020 looks like being.

We are doing really well with our drafting, but I do agree the club should be trying to figure out how to get the next gun mid in the door. Not easy though.

Great analysis mate. :thumbsu:

The bolded line is my issue with trading a lot away to get into a top pick, so tough to line them up this year with no junior footy to go on, but I'll back our judgement if there is someone we are keen on.

Seems like a known commodity is the far safer play.
 

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We’re looking to trade out - if we can.
Unfortunately I think the end for Cotchin may Sadly be closer than most think. Once your hamstrings start going on you reoccurringly it’s a pretty bad sign.
I hope I’m wrong. I love the blokes game.
 
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Stack is honestly one that has such a high ceiling, when he first came onto the scene I thought he could an andrew mcleod type. Hope he can develop like most our players do.
Im Gonna go with stack and Rossy have plenty of improvement left in them, watched Freo last night Brayshaw and cerra starred , 12m ago they weren’t doing fa ,with many looking sideways at the Brayshaw pick
I’m keen to get a look at rcd and Dow, not expecting a lot , just gimme something , ,,,anything
 
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