List Mgmt. 2020 Draft and Trade Hypotheticals

[dosser]

Looked it up and he has 17, massive numbers in the 2014 Grannie, 7 disposals.

Shorter quarters this year. If it was a normal year he would have been on target for a much more respectable 7 possessions again.

 

[SGBeach]

Thank f**k Dangerfields season is over.. back to melbourne tomorrow, meet with Geelong footy department early next week and finalise their ideal list size. Should know list sizes by the end of the week.

 

[caesar88]

Phillips not a good kick or inconsistent and weaker on non-dominant foot? Is that the read.

Sent from my SM-G965F using Tapatalk

He is an above average kick for an inside mid.

 

[caesar88]

******* hell, poor Gaz. ☹

Which Gaz? The bible basher or the one who dragged us in the media for daring to trade him after years of him doing SFA?

 

[Tesla Tenet]

He is an above average kick for an inside mid.

Thanks, I should have read it properly.

Sent from my SM-G965F using Tapatalk

 

[RUNVS]

I still really want Phillips most of all but I would not be against us getting DGB. Both fill a need, though I think Phillips fills a much more pressing need.

 

[Kapers]

Originally in another board, but I this is the best argument for trading pick 3 to improve next year.

On the topic of Dusty, I think he is a cautionary tale on how to develop players, and what to expect of them at certain times in their career. (I've insulted the use of Brownlows, and I'm only using them as a metric since I can't remember dustys season at all from 2014-2016)

Dusty at 23 is stock standard imo, doesn't really feature on the Brownlows.
24 he gets his first pretty good year and gets 7th.
25 he's shown glimpses but hasn't put it together. Tallys 3rd in the votes, behind Parker, but is probably less consistent with higher highs.
26 he explodes on to the scene and has an incredible year.

27, 28, 29, imo doesn't remain as consistent in the home and away, but is the best player currently in finals.

Isaac Heeney

5

Isaac Heeney

Age

27

Ht

185cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.2

5star

K

10.4

4star

HB

7.7

5star

M

4.9

5star

T

4.1

5star

G

1.0

4star

D

14.3

3star

K

8.8

4star

HB

5.5

3star

M

4.8

4star

T

2.5

3star

G

1.2

5star

D

10.4

3star

K

7.2

3star

HB

3.2

3star

M

2.8

3star

T

2.4

4star

G

1.0

4star

is 24 and was never given a chance to have this year, Mills is 23, these two blokes still haven't fully developed, and although I'm pretty confident they won't be dusty, the fact that we are judging them as worthy/not worthy already is laughable.

It also shows, that even though I think we are closer to the top than a lot of others think, we also have to wait for a lot of our blokes to reach that 24-26 mark before they can consistently impact games.
Expecting Blakey to put it all together next year and be the player he can is only setting yourself up for disappointment.

IMO pick 3 will only set us back longer, having another part of our future team be 6-8 years from reaching their peak.

If we really want to be better next year we have to hit the trade table, but if all we get next year is pick 3, Campbell, and Gulden, we are going to be struggling to get close to the 8 next year.

 

[RUNVS]

No sense trying to force the team into the 8 when the team isn't really ready. Keep hitting the trade table and letting the kids develop.

 

[Cadsky]

Originally in another board, but I this is the best argument for trading pick 3 to improve next year.

On the topic of Dusty, I think he is a cautionary tale on how to develop players, and what to expect of them at certain times in their career. (I've insulted the use of Brownlows, and I'm only using them as a metric since I can't remember dustys season at all from 2014-2016)

Dusty at 23 is stock standard imo, doesn't really feature on the Brownlows.
24 he gets his first pretty good year and gets 7th.
25 he's shown glimpses but hasn't put it together. Tallys 3rd in the votes, behind Parker, but is probably less consistent with higher highs.
26 he explodes on to the scene and has an incredible year.

27, 28, 29, imo doesn't remain as consistent in the home and away, but is the best player currently in finals.

Isaac Heeney

5

Isaac Heeney

Age

27

Ht

185cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.2

5star

K

10.4

4star

HB

7.7

5star

M

4.9

5star

T

4.1

5star

G

1.0

4star

D

14.3

3star

K

8.8

4star

HB

5.5

3star

M

4.8

4star

T

2.5

3star

G

1.2

5star

D

10.4

3star

K

7.2

3star

HB

3.2

3star

M

2.8

3star

T

2.4

4star

G

1.0

4star

is 24 and was never given a chance to have this year, Mills is 23, these two blokes still haven't fully developed, and although I'm pretty confident they won't be dusty, the fact that we are judging them as worthy/not worthy already is laughable.

It also shows, that even though I think we are closer to the top than a lot of others think, we also have to wait for a lot of our blokes to reach that 24-26 mark before they can consistently impact games.
Expecting Blakey to put it all together next year and be the player he can is only setting yourself up for disappointment.

IMO pick 3 will only set us back longer, having another part of our future team be 6-8 years from reaching their peak.

If we really want to be better next year we have to hit the trade table, but if all we get next year is pick 3, Campbell, and Gulden, we are going to be struggling to get close to the 8 next year.

That's all well and good but players need to want to come here. Hypothetically if you chase Zach Merritt that's great but if he only wants to play in Vic then we have to go to the draft.

 

[Kapers]

That's all well and good but players need to want to come here. Hypothetically if you chase Zach Merritt that's great but if he only wants to play in Vic then we have to go to the draft.

I understand completely, was just saying it was an argument for trading in players.
Theres plenty of arguments against, including the one you just stated, we are currently unable to attract the talent we need.

I'm not saying one option is 100% right, I'm more pointing out that if we do keep going to the draft any expectations of getting much better next year are misguided.

 

[CowFos]

I still really want Phillips most of all but I would not be against us getting DGB. Both fill a need, though I think Phillips fills a much more pressing need.

If Hollands was still there at our pick would you prefer him over Phillips?

 

[Cadsky]

I understand completely, was just saying it was an argument for trading in players.
Theres plenty of arguments against, including the one you just stated, we are currently unable to attract the talent we need.

I'm not saying one option is 100% right, I'm more pointing out that if we do keep going to the draft any expectations of getting much better next year are misguided.

I don't think anyone here expects top 8 next season. But bottom 4 is an epic fail no matter which way we go. I'd be aiming for 10-12 next season with a push into the 8 in 2022

 

[swanssince2002]

I think it would be a 2003-level of surprise to make the top 8 next year, but I think we have to at least show some progress. Don't want to get stuck in a rut and be bottom 4 again. We were sold on a rebuild for sure and we have sort of accepted it, but we need to see some wins and not just some moral losses.

Need to see more progress on players like Blakey, Rowbottom, Florent and JMac. They all showed good things here and there but it needs to turn into consistent performances.

 

[Kapers]

No sense trying to force the team into the 8 when the team isn't really ready. Keep hitting the trade table and letting the kids develop.

I agree with this, but do you agree there is a breaking point? How long can we keep hitting the trade table before another Zac Jones happens?

Let's say we go to the draft this year, and are bottom 4 team again, and then maybe a bottom 8 team after that.
Why would players like Rowbottom want to stay with us if we just don't look like making it to the 8?

If we were simply a machine I would 100% agree, keep going to draft to get talent. But we're not. We have to keep team morale up, we have to sell them a story of what we are. Making the 8 next year would do WAY more for our team, their morale, belief, and commitment than another top draft pick.

 

[SGBeach]

Originally in another board, but I this is the best argument for trading pick 3 to improve next year.

On the topic of Dusty, I think he is a cautionary tale on how to develop players, and what to expect of them at certain times in their career. (I've insulted the use of Brownlows, and I'm only using them as a metric since I can't remember dustys season at all from 2014-2016)

Dusty at 23 is stock standard imo, doesn't really feature on the Brownlows.
24 he gets his first pretty good year and gets 7th.
25 he's shown glimpses but hasn't put it together. Tallys 3rd in the votes, behind Parker, but is probably less consistent with higher highs.
26 he explodes on to the scene and has an incredible year.

27, 28, 29, imo doesn't remain as consistent in the home and away, but is the best player currently in finals.

Isaac Heeney

5

Isaac Heeney

Age

27

Ht

185cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.2

5star

K

10.4

4star

HB

7.7

5star

M

4.9

5star

T

4.1

5star

G

1.0

4star

D

14.3

3star

K

8.8

4star

HB

5.5

3star

M

4.8

4star

T

2.5

3star

G

1.2

5star

D

10.4

3star

K

7.2

3star

HB

3.2

3star

M

2.8

3star

T

2.4

4star

G

1.0

4star

is 24 and was never given a chance to have this year, Mills is 23, these two blokes still haven't fully developed, and although I'm pretty confident they won't be dusty, the fact that we are judging them as worthy/not worthy already is laughable.

It also shows, that even though I think we are closer to the top than a lot of others think, we also have to wait for a lot of our blokes to reach that 24-26 mark before they can consistently impact games.
Expecting Blakey to put it all together next year and be the player he can is only setting yourself up for disappointment.

IMO pick 3 will only set us back longer, having another part of our future team be 6-8 years from reaching their peak.

If we really want to be better next year we have to hit the trade table, but if all we get next year is pick 3, Campbell, and Gulden, we are going to be struggling to get close to the 8 next year.

I agree with all you've said except trading p3
we've an opportunity to draft 3 x top talents
we've an opportunity to trade in a potential future top end ruck, or at least a good one that can develop with this team. thats the trade we should focus on
we've an opportunity to trade (gamble) a full forward - P McCartin and/or Hogan - We've time to take gambles. If it comes off then great, if it doesn't, then we've time to recover
Buddys contract means we start trading expensive players in 2021/22, by then we should have a better idea of where our list is and where to improve.
Heeney, Paps, Hewett are just entering their prime years
Mills, Dawson, Florent, Rowbum, Stephens etc are 1-4 years behind
Having a playing group that is aged between 21/22 - 28/29 is perfect for a 5 year crack at the flag

 

[Kapers]

I don't think anyone here expects top 8 next season. But bottom 4 is an epic fail no matter which way we go. I'd be aiming for 10-12 next season with a push into the 8 in 2022

This legit what I'm saying, I think even 10-12 is misguided to some extent. What are you expecting to change next year? We'll probably beat North, but every other bottom team will be tough for us to beat.

How exactly are we going to 4 spots? And although we could of been 13th this year with 2 more flukey wins (Geelong and Carlton), our percentage firmly places us in the bottom 4.

I wouldn't be surprised if we're bottom 4 again, and would almost expect it if all we add are 3 draft picks.

 

[Kapers]

I agree with all you've said except trading p3
we've an opportunity to draft 3 x top talents
we've an opportunity to trade in a potential future top end ruck, or at least a good one that can develop with this team. thats the trade we should focus on
we've an opportunity to trade (gamble) a full forward - P McCartin and/or Hogan - We've time to take gambles. If it comes off then great, if it doesn't, then we've time to recover
Buddys contract means we start trading expensive players in 2021/22, by then we should have a better idea of where our list is and where to improve.
Heeney, Paps, Hewett are just entering their prime years
Mills, Dawson, Florent, Rowbum, Stephens etc are 1-4 years behind
Having a playing group that is aged between 21/22 - 28/29 is perfect for a 5 year crack at the flag

As stated earlier, by the end of 2022, if we haven't don't anything meaningful, why would players like Dawson, Robottom, McInerney, McCartin, or hell, even Stephens stick around. Can't just keep them and say we'll be good next year.

 

[SGBeach]

I agree with this, but do you agree there is a breaking point? How long can we keep hitting the trade table before another Zac Jones happens?

Let's say we go to the draft this year, and are bottom 4 team again, and then maybe a bottom 8 team after that.
Why would players like Rowbottom want to stay with us if we just don't look like making it to the 8?

If we were simply a machine I would 100% agree, keep going to draft to get talent. But we're not. We have to keep team morale up, we have to sell them a story of what we are. Making the 8 next year would do WAY more for our team, their morale, belief, and commitment than another top draft pick.

as long as we improve, and Im pretty confident we will
Its pretty easy for all the young crew to see where we are headed, I get the impression they're Swans for the long haul

 

[McRobie]

Gary Rohan

23

Gary Rohan

Age

32

Ht

189cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.6

2star

K

6.6

3star

HB

3.0

3star

M

3.3

3star

T

2.5

4star

G

1.0

4star

D

8.8

2star

K

6.0

2star

HB

2.8

2star

M

3.4

3star

T

2.3

3star

G

1.0

4star

D

9.8

3star

K

6.8

3star

HB

3.0

3star

M

2.2

3star

T

4.2

5star

G

1.2

4star

confirming he’s mentally weak. Glad we punted him.

 

[SeanM]

I would rather go the draft with pick 3. Although there is always a risk that the player turns out to be a bust or wants to leave. The top 5 look pretty good so we look to be well positioned.

I think I would only be trading pick 3
- If we were a top 4 side in our premiership window looking to add another quality player for short term success
- As a rebuilding side if there was a structural hole in the list that desperately needed to be fixed
- If an exceptional mid 20s player became available who we felt we had to take the opportunity to sign

 

[SGBeach]

This legit what I'm saying, I think even 10-12 is misguided to some extent. What are you expecting to change next year? We'll probably beat North, but every other bottom team will be tough for us to beat.

How exactly are we going to 4 spots? And although we could of been 13th this year with 2 more flukey wins (Geelong and Carlton), our percentage firmly places us in the bottom 4.

I wouldn't be surprised if we're bottom 4 again, and would almost expect it if all we add are 3 draft picks.

As stated earlier, by the end of 2022, if we haven't don't anything meaningful, why would players like Dawson, Robottom, McInerney, McCartin, or hell, even Stephens stick around. Can't just keep them and say we'll be good next year.

absolutely disagree.
don't forget the injuries this year
Buddy, Reid, Naismith, Melican, Brand + many of the reserve talls.
Heeney, JPK, Hewett, Rampe
All out for extended periods if not all season
not an excuse, just fact. Take those players out of any team and that team loses

 

[Cadsky]

This legit what I'm saying, I think even 10-12 is misguided to some extent. What are you expecting to change next year? We'll probably beat North, but every other bottom team will be tough for us to beat.

How exactly are we going to 4 spots? And although we could of been 13th this year with 2 more flukey wins (Geelong and Carlton), our percentage firmly places us in the bottom 4.

I wouldn't be surprised if we're bottom 4 again, and would almost expect it if all we add are 3 draft picks.

You can still take pick 3 to the draft and make other trades that help take us up the ladder and net us 2-3 more wins next season.

Trading aliir for a ruck will be a vast improvement. We can cover his loss for an area we desperately need. Bringing in mccartin or Hogan again will be a vast improvement in our forward line. If buddy plays half a season next year he probably nets us 1 or 2 wins on his own. Heeney and rampe back vastly improve our team and then you have general improvement from our young players. Imo there's 3-4 wins to get us to the 10-12 position.

 

[FreeAgent1]

Honestly if we got hogan and ladhams/Hayes I would be happy enough with the trade period.

 

[Cadsky]

Honestly if we got hogan and ladhams/Hayes I would be happy enough with the trade period.

Because that would be an improvement in our list

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

Continually finishing bottom 4 is how you lose your 24-25yr olds looking for success.