News Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread III - L6ckdown

[7577969923]

What do we think this means?

Does Dan come out at the press conference today and say we can now progress to easing restrictions immediately? Whatever he does a strong message around the capability we now have in place to detect and manage outbreaks and clusters in the context of having society open and functioning would be a good move. Especially given that pretty much all of the outbreaks over the past two weeks involve an element of failure from the DHHS. This may be difficult because of the corner he has painted himself into.

 

[gokangas]

He would be delighted and relieved. There is not a single real reason to believe otherwise, and nor a single real interest of his served by not being able to move on as quickly as they believe is possible.

On the northern suburbs outbreak, The Age has the family sharing their email from DHHS and also adding that only one member of the family is not fluent in English. All reminded me of my interactions with Centrelink over the years, and the number of times I’ve wondered how people who don’t have strong language skills and are not tertiary educated manage, because they confused me.

Just listening to the latest contact tracing blunders on radio including the fugg up with this cluster. Mikakos's tweet was spot on..

 

[gokangas]

What do we think this means?

Does Dan come out at the press conference today and say we can now progress to easing restrictions immediately? Whatever he does a strong message around the capability we now have in place to detect and manage outbreaks and clusters in the context of having society open and functioning would be a good move. Especially given that pretty much all of the outbreaks over the past two weeks involve an element of failure from the DHHS. This may be difficult because of the corner he has painted himself into.

He has to let go a little today. No excuses now. I'm guessing a slow reopening of shopping centres with numbers limited from Thursday but he will be keen to avoid big BBQs on Melb Cup Day so I'm guessing he will maintain the limits re indoor home gatherings for a week or two more.

 

[Hearts to hearts]

What do we think this means?

Does Dan come out at the press conference today and say we can now progress to easing restrictions immediately? Whatever he does a strong message around the capability we now have in place to detect and manage outbreaks and clusters in the context of having society open and functioning would be a good move. Especially given that pretty much all of the outbreaks over the past two weeks involve an element of failure from the DHHS. This may be difficult because of the corner he has painted himself into.

If they have cleared all the northern suburbs tests there is no reason not to announce whatever he was going to say yesterday. Contact tracing is not going to be better or worse.

Maybe it’s just me and maybe I’m confused. I thought the govt already announced most of the metro easing would be from 1/11, and yesterday was about the touted possibility it might be brought forward earlier than that being pushed back again - maybe by just one day - by a specific circumstance. It was a let down and they shouldn’t have been so publicly optimistic - but I didn’t really understand or expect the level of devastation I saw.

 

[Hearts to hearts]

Just listening to the latest contact tracing blunders on radio including the fugg up with this cluster. Mikakos's tweet was spot on..

If only she had been in a position to make DHHS operate more effectively.

 

[gokangas]

If only she had been in a position to make DHHS operate more effectively.

Yep - but it is still a nightmare - he shoulders the blame now for not being able to get this right over 7 months. The head of DHHS, Sutton and Andrews are all dead man/woman walking. Just time and they will go.

 

[Tas]

He would be delighted and relieved. There is not a single real reason to believe otherwise, and nor a single real interest of his served by not being able to move on as quickly as they believe is possible.

On the northern suburbs outbreak, The Age has the family sharing their email from DHHS and also adding that only one member of the family is not fluent in English. All reminded me of my interactions with Centrelink over the years, and the number of times I’ve wondered how people who don’t have strong language skills and are not tertiary educated manage, because they confused me.

Centrelink:

My parents are pensioners and receive their pension. They are also not in the system because they have no form of photographic identification and are now in the position where they can't get any because their ones had expired like drivers licenses, passports, etc. They are in Centrelink limbo, they still receive a pension but if they would need to access any different services they couldn't, because their identification isn't in the system... despite them having done so in the old system and them having access to their old identification which was valid at the time.

Centrelink is really the epitome of bureaucracy and it is probably the closest we will ever get to getting a window into what the world will look like in a socialist utopia.

 

[7577969923]

If they have cleared all the northern suburbs tests there is no reason not to announce whatever he was going to say yesterday. Contact tracing is not going to be better or worse.

Maybe it’s just me and maybe I’m confused. I thought the govt already announced most of the metro easing would be from 1/11, and yesterday was about the touted possibility it might be brought forward earlier than that being pushed back again - maybe by just one day - by a specific circumstance. It was a let down and they shouldn’t have been so publicly optimistic - but I didn’t really understand or expect the level of devastation I saw.

I think the problem with yesterday was more about what it potentially meant than perhaps the actuality. Dan had actually given indications that opening up would be bought forward much more significantly than you suggest and businesses had started "tooling up" and ordering in stock and lining up staff. We then had two days where we had 12 cases in from the Northern suburbs in two days and the premier blinked and we were plunged into uncertainty again. We have spent the past 4 months in the harshest and longest lockdown anywhere in the Western world and that was supposed to have two purposes; Control the second wave which had clearly got out of control and provide time for the Government to improve the resources, capabilities, systems etc we have in place to respond to the pandemic and that would allow us to function with an open society that is not completely virus free. His actions and communications yesterday caused everybody to doubt that they had made any progress on the second part at all. For a guy that is normally a good communicator and is obsessive about the political optics of everything he does, he has had a really bad week. With the Cox Plate debacle and then this has thrown very mixed messages out there.

Zero cases today is fantastic. We should not overreact to it though, in the same way, we shouldn't have overreacted yesterday when we had six cases. That will be our lives for a while yet. Good days and flare-ups. We need to be able to have confidence that we can deal with all of those days and open up our society.

 

[Mr_Nyah]

If they have cleared all the northern suburbs tests there is no reason not to announce whatever he was going to say yesterday. Contact tracing is not going to be better or worse.

Maybe it’s just me and maybe I’m confused. I thought the govt already announced most of the metro easing would be from 1/11, and yesterday was about the touted possibility it might be brought forward earlier than that being pushed back again - maybe by just one day - by a specific circumstance. It was a let down and they shouldn’t have been so publicly optimistic - but I didn’t really understand or expect the level of devastation I saw.

The problem was that Dan new he hadn't given people what they wanted a few weeks ago in delaying it to the 1st of November, so he sold that he would likely bring it forward - and he sold it very hard all week. It was another case of over promise, under deliver. If he hadn't have mentioned bringing it forward, there wouldn't have been people so upset. But he mentioned it over and over again, and then by Wednesday-Friday, was using words like "significant". To use that wording and then deliver nothing, despite being below the rolling 5 average, was a cruel body blow. He sold it all week for the positive press it would bring him, and then backed out. That is why there was such devastation.

 

[7577969923]

If only she had been in a position to make DHHS operate more effectively.

I get the impression that the DHHS secretary treated her like a mushroom. Kept in the dark and fed on sh*t!

 

[7577969923]

The problem was that Dan new he hadn't given people what they wanted a few weeks ago in delaying it to the 1st of November, so he sold that he would likely bring it forward - and he sold it very hard all week. It was another case of over promise, under deliver. If he hadn't have mentioned bringing it forward, there wouldn't have been people so upset. But he mentioned it over and over again, and then by Wednesday-Friday, was using words like "significant". To use that wording and then deliver nothing, despite being below the rolling 5 average, was a cruel body blow. He sold it all week for the positive press it would bring him, and then backed out. That is why there was such devastation.

To an audience that I frustrated as hell and has bourne the economic brunt of the lockdown more than any other. Business hates uncertainty and snatched away any certainty they had. People might think they overreacted but remember they are on the absolute end of their tether and frustrated as hell. Anyone in that frame of mind will blow up based on the flimsiest of triggers. We have seen that kind of behaviour from Dan himself a bit over the past few weeks.

 

[year of the roo]

Dan must be shattered.

You must be shattered. What are you going to whine about now?

 

[Muscles Thommo]

To an audience that I frustrated as hell and has bourne the economic brunt of the lockdown more than any other. Business hates uncertainty and snatched away any certainty they had. People might think they overreacted but remember they are on the absolute end of their tether and frustrated as hell. Anyone in that frame of mind will blow up based on the flimsiest of triggers. We have seen that kind of behaviour from Dan himself a bit over the past few weeks.

Ol' Dic Dan didnt take too well to the reporters line of questioning about Mikakos's tweet... The anger on his face was palpable... maybe he now knows how people feel about his draconian lockdown!

 

[LuvtheKangas]

I get the impression that the DHHS secretary treated her like a mushroom. Kept in the dark and fed on sh*t!

Surely that's at least partly her fault.

Bottom line is, she just wasn't right for the job.

 

[Mr_Nyah]

Surely that's at least partly her fault.

Bottom line is, she just wasn't right for the job.

That someone who was Health Minister during a bungled response to a global health pandemic can think to point the finger at anyone else is beyond me. Either she mucked up, or she was incompetent and given the role because of croneyism - take your pick, but she should be keeping her head down regardless.

 

[LuvtheKangas]

That someone who was Health Minister during a bungled response to a global health pandemic can think to point the finger at anyone else is beyond me. Either she mucked up, or she was incompetent and given the role because of croneyism - take your pick, but she should be keeping her head down regardless.

Absolutely she should keep her head down. It's completely tone deaf for her to think she is entitled to contribute to the conversation now.

Upside is that it has clearly rattled Dan. If only some current cabinet members would stand up to him.

 

[Forever North]

Given the near empty hospitals, extremely low case numbers, low rolling average etc, Andrews procrastination over opening up says everything about his lack of trust and the absolute incompetence of the DHHS. A complete shambles of an organization as you could ever find. His government is only good for screwing things up, he is so petrified because of the past * ups of this dept. Meanwhile the economic, social and mental health costs keep skyrocketing every single day completely disproportionate to the costs of opening up. Andrews is a ******* lunatic completely paralysed by fear now.

 

[Mr_Nyah]

Absolutely she should keep her head down. It's completely tone deaf for her to think she is entitled to contribute to the conversation now.

Upside is that it has clearly rattled Dan. If only some current cabinet members would stand up to him.

She's playing politics, trying to save her brand by playing off the frustration people have towards Dan. Not sure why, as I doubt we'll ever see her anywhere near public office again. Probably out of ego I suspect.

No-one will stand up for Dan because I still maintain that he is a dead-man walking here to play bad cop. He will ease restrictions slowly with the view to having us in only very light lockdowns by Christmas. He will then step down in late January or February, and his replacement will have a clean slate and a full 18 months to build towards the next election. I don't think it's at all out of the realms of possibility that Labour win the next election in Victoria, from a purely timing standpoint it was far enough away from the next election to give them a chance to save face. An election in 2021 would have been disastrous.

 

[ferball]

Centrelink:

My parents are pensioners and receive their pension. They are also not in the system because they have no form of photographic identification and are now in the position where they can't get any because their ones had expired like drivers licenses, passports, etc. They are in Centrelink limbo, they still receive a pension but if they would need to access any different services they couldn't, because their identification isn't in the system... despite them having done so in the old system and them having access to their old identification which was valid at the time.

Centrelink is really the epitome of bureaucracy and it is probably the closest we will ever get to getting a window into what the world will look like in a socialist utopia.

The reason the bureaucracy is so mental at Centrelink is that for as long as I can remember we hate welfare recipients. Dole bludgers and single mums are destroying the country.

From what I understand of the dole it's an impossible nightmare and only because for decades it's used as a political footy. What does a socialist utopia have to do with Robodebt and vulnerable people killing themselves?

 

[The acurate one]

The reason the bureaucracy is so mental at Centrelink is that for as long as I can remember we hate welfare recipients. Dole bludgers and single mums are destroying the country.

From what I understand of the dole it's an impossible nightmare and only because for decades it's used as a political footy. What does a socialist utopia have to do with Robodebt and vulnerable people killing themselves?

Not just single mums and dole blungers, bloody foreigners and their bloody foreign food, habits and the like has us on our knees.

 

[LuvtheKangas]

Not just single mums and dole blungers, bloody foreigners and their bloody foreign food, habits and the like has us on our knees.

They come here and take all our jobs, too.

 

[Themanbun]

The reason the bureaucracy is so mental at Centrelink is that for as long as I can remember we hate welfare recipients. Dole bludgers and single mums are destroying the country.

From what I understand of the dole it's an impossible nightmare and only because for decades it's used as a political footy. What does a socialist utopia have to do with Robodebt and vulnerable people killing themselves?

Exactly right. All of the administrative hurdles and bureaucratic nightmares we experience at Centrelink are all put in place to stop people from getting the dole. It's the conditionality principles (as opposed to universalism advocated by say, guaranteed income or universal income theorists) that cost truckloads of time and money to administer.

 

[7577969923]

Surely that's at least partly her fault.

Bottom line is, she just wasn't right for the job.

She's not Robinson Crusoe on that measure though. I could list another 5 to 10 involved in this quite easily.

 

[7577969923]

The reason the bureaucracy is so mental at Centrelink is that for as long as I can remember we hate welfare recipients. Dole bludgers and single mums are destroying the country.

From what I understand of the dole it's an impossible nightmare and only because for decades it's used as a political footy. What does a socialist utopia have to do with Robodebt and vulnerable people killing themselves?

I feel like this is the third rail discussion of this thread. There is no answer or position that won't be disagreed with.

Walking backwards slowly....

 

[Hearts to hearts]

I think the problem with yesterday was more about what it potentially meant than perhaps the actuality. Dan had actually given indications that opening up would be bought forward much more significantly than you suggest and businesses had started "tooling up" and ordering in stock and lining up staff. We then had two days where we had 12 cases in from the Northern suburbs in two days and the premier blinked and we were plunged into uncertainty again. We have spent the past 4 months in the harshest and longest lockdown anywhere in the Western world and that was supposed to have two purposes; Control the second wave which had clearly got out of control and provide time for the Government to improve the resources, capabilities, systems etc we have in place to respond to the pandemic and that would allow us to function with an open society that is not completely virus free. His actions and communications yesterday caused everybody to doubt that they had made any progress on the second part at all. For a guy that is normally a good communicator and is obsessive about the political optics of everything he does, he has had a really bad week. With the Cox Plate debacle and then this has thrown very mixed messages out there.

Zero cases today is fantastic. We should not overreact to it though, in the same way, we shouldn't have overreacted yesterday when we had six cases. That will be our lives for a while yet. Good days and flare-ups. We need to be able to have confidence that we can deal with all of those days and open up our society.

Thanks, that does help me understand it. I tune out a lot of what gets said day to day now - I have work and it will continue be done at home for the foreseeable future, and I don’t really need a lot of what has been restricted (except school) - but I appreciate that every day does matter, and the uncertainty and being pulled around by mangled messages of hope and caution is very difficult when you are trying to plan reopening, manage staff and stock and everything.