BigFooty Official 2021 OFFICIAL BIGFOOTY PHANTOM DRAFT

[PMBangers]

IF YOU WANT TO READ THROUGH THE THREAD AND ONLY SEE THE SELECTIONS RATHER THAN COMMENTARY FROM NON-DRAFTERS, CLICK 'READER MODE' NEXT TO YOUR 'WATCH' BUTTON

Pick 1 - North Melbourne - Jason Horne-Francis
Pick 2 - Western Bulldogs MATCHED BID - Sam Darcy
Pick 3 - Collingwood MATCHED BID - Nick Daicos
Pick 4 - GWS - Josh Gibcus
Pick 5 - Gold Coast Suns - Neil Erasmus
Pick 6 - Adelaide - Finn Callaghan
Pick 7 - Hawthorn - Ben Hobbs
Pick 8 - Fremantle - Josh Rachele
Pick 9 - Richmond - Josh Ward
Pick 10 - Fremantle - Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera
Pick 11 - St Kilda - Matthew Johnson
Pick 12 - West Coast - Josh Goater
Pick 13 - Essendon - Tyler Sonsie
Pick 14 - Port Adelaide - Josh Sinn
Pick 15 - GWS - Mac Andrew
Pick 16 - Brisbane - Jye Amiss
Pick 17 - Richmond - Jacob Van Rooyen
Pick 18 - Sydney - Darcy Wilmot
Pick 19 - Melbourne - Campbell Chesser
Pick 20 - Brisbane - Mitch Owens

Pick 21 - Fremantle - Mitch Knevitt

Pick 22 - North Melbourne - Tom Brown
Pick 23 - Hawthorn - Rhett Bazzo
Pick 24 - GWS Giants MATCHED BID - Josh Fahey
Pick 25 - Geelong - Arlo Draper
Pick 26 - Hawthorn - Conor Macdonald
Pick 27 - Carlton - Angus Sheldrick
Pick 28 - Richmond - Zac Taylor
Pick 29 - Richmond - Cooper Murley

Pick 30 - Richmond - Blake Howes
Pick 31 - West Coast Eagles - Toby Conway
Pick 32 - Geelong - Sam Butler

Multiple players found. Use birthday to differentiate. eg [PLAYERCARD="23/11/1962"]Joe Smith[/PLAYERCARD]

Pick 33 - Sydney - Ned Long
Pick 34 - Geelong - Leek Alleer
Pick 35 - Adelaide - Matty Roberts
Pick 36 - Geelong - Brady Hough
Pick 37 - West Coast Eagles - Jesse Motlop

Pick 38 - Melbourne - Judson Clarke
Pick 39 - Sydney - Paul Curtis

Pick 40 - Brisbane - Alastair Lord
Pick 41 - North Melbourne - Jack Williams
Pick 42 - North Melbourne - Arthur Jones
Pick 43 - Melbourne - Charlie Molan
Pick 44 - Collingwood - Kai Lohmann
Pick 45 - Geelong - Kade Dittmar
Pick 46 - Essendon - Shay Linke
Pick 47 - Brisbane - Hugh Jackson
Pick 48 - Collingwood - Taj Woewodin
Pick 49 - Essendon - Corey Warner
Pick 50 - Melbourne - Youseph Dib
Pick 51 - Collingwood - Lachlan Rankin

Pick 52 - Hawthorn - Joshua Browne
Pick 53 - Brisbane - Miller Bergman
Pick 54 - Fremantle - Anthony Caminiti
Pick 55 - St Kilda - Bailey Rogers
Pick 56 - Port Adelaide - Sam Breuer
Pick 57 - Carlton - Luke Polson
Pick 58 - Western Bulldogs (Darcy bid residual points) - Morgan Ferres
Pick 59 - Hawthorn - Jake Soligo
Pick 60 - St Kilda - Jack Avery
Pick 61 - St Kilda - Charlie Dean
Pick 62 - West Coast - James Tunstill
Pick 63 - Fremantle - Eric Benning
Pick 64 - Sydney - Justin Davies

Justin Davies

Age

40

Ht

184cm

Wt

80kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.4

2star

K

4.6

2star

HB

3.8

3star

M

2.2

2star

T

2.0

4star

No current season stats available

D

9.8

3star

K

4.0

2star

HB

5.8

4star

M

3.2

4star

T

2.8

5star

Pick 65 - North Melbourne - Sam Banks
Pick 66 - Port Adelaide - Harvey Harrison
Pick 67 - Port Adelaide - Oscar Adams
Pick 68 - Adelaide - Jordan Lukac
Pick 69 - Brisbane - Marcus Windhager

(Selections to meet minimum of 3 criteria) note: this is for the phantom only, in the real draft rookie upgrades and such will happen to meet the minimum criteria

Pick 70 - Gold Coast Suns - Jase Burgoyne
Pick 71 - Carlton - Isaac Birt
Pick 72 - Gold Coast Suns - Ethan Regan
Pick 73 - Western Bulldogs (Darcy bid residual pick) - Luke Nankervis
Pick 74 - Western Bulldogs (Darcy bid residual pick) - Hugh Stagg
Pick 75 - Western Bulldogs (Darcy bid residual pick) - Dante Visentini
Pick 78 - GWS (list spots left after Fahey bid) - Ronald Fejo Jnr

Rookie Draft (1 Round for fun xx)
RD Pick 1 - North Melbourne - Jahmal Stretch
RD Pick 2 - Collingwood - Lukas Cooke
RD Pick 3 - Gold Coast Suns - Max Chipper
RD Pick 4 - Adelaide - James Willis
RD Pick 5 - Hawthorn - Toby Murray
RD Pick 6 - Carlton - Mani Liddy
RD Pick 7 - Richmond - Lewis Rayson
RD Pick 8 - Fremantle - Luca Whitelum
RD Pick 9 - St Kilda - Blake Schlensog
RD Pick 10 - West Coast Eagles - Lochie Paton
RD Pick 11 - Essendon - Dylan Landt
RD Pick 12 - Sydney
RD Pick 13 - GWS - Corey Preston
RD Pick 14 - Brisbane - Oscar Morrison
RD Pick 15 - Geelong - Kaden Harbour
RD Pick 16 - Port Adelaide - Zavier Maher
RD Pick 17 - Western Bulldogs - Zac Becker
RD Pick 18 - Melbourne - Jamieson Ballantyne

Bids in more detail
Pick 2 - GWS bid on Sam Darcy - (Requires 2014 points to match, Dogs use 23, 43, 44, 45, 52. Gain 2, 60)
Pick 3 - GWS bid on Nick Daicos - (Requires 1787 to match, Pies use 36, 38, 40, 43. Gain 3 [pretty sure this is about bang on])
Pick 24 - Geelong bid on Josh Fahey - (Requires 690 to match, GWS use 46 and 65. Gain 24. 200-odd point deficit)

 

[Warhorse]

Some players I rate yet to be drafted. This draft has some real depth

 

[ModernArtillery]

Pick 53 - Brisbane - Miller Bergman
188cm/65kg
Dandenong Stingrays

Bergman is a mobile, athletic type who covers the ground really easily and can impact the game aerially. He willingly and quite courageously flies for marks and competes to either take the grab himself or bring it to ground. He's a classy user by foot and a good finisher in front of goal so there are weapons there that make him desirable. He's got the versatility to find a role at half forward, on a wing or as an interceptor and user across half back and that flexibility will give him plenty of opportunities to find a role at AFL level.

I was choosing between Bergman and another half back but favoured Bergman's versatility.

Chris25

 

[eDPS]

Pick 53 - Brisbane - Miller Bergman

Write up to come.

Chris25

That’s my pick if I don’t take Dib

 

[PMBangers]

Pick 51 - Lachlan Rankin (Oakleigh Chargers/Vic Metro)

I’ll write the full profile up later, but I took him in the BF PD podcast and I was planning on taking him here. Plus PMBangers threatened me if I didn’t.

The main reason is I feel like we need another red head on the team... but seriously great skills and athleticism, damaging around goals, just has high X-factor, high ceiling, someone who can really build and become something special. Teaming up with Daicos again adds to it, so very happy to welcome him in. Rankin fits a need of being able to hit targets.

Davo-27

YA JOKING SHOULDA BEEN HIGHER

 

[Giant Strides]

YA JOKING SHOULDA BEEN HIGHER

 

[LemmingMaster]

Hope to see Carltons pick tonight

 

[Monocle]

Hope to see Carltons pick tonight

You have got to like optimism.

 

[Chris25]

#54 Fremantle - Anthony Caminiti (196cm, 83kg, Vic Metro)

Edited in the write up...

It's not a complete shot in the dark, but the room certainly is dimly lit. I'm not going to pretend I've seen a lot of Caminiti, I saw about one and a half games of his this year, although to be fair he only played the 3 NAB League matches having mostly played at Carey. I've seen a lot more of the SA boys and strongly considered them here - the production of Ferres, the potential of Cook and the athleticism of Lukac.

But I'm going with Caminiti, who did receive a Combine invite off the back of his handful of games. It's not a draft stacked full of tall talent, so it feels like a team could take a punt on a high upside guy like Caminiti - whether it's late in the national draft or as a rookie. At the very least, I wouldn't be surprised to see his name pop up again next year if he returns to the U18s.

The reason I've gone with him is just that the overall package is appealing. He has above average athleticism and quickness for a tall, and is particularly good on the lead. In the games I saw, he consistently got away from his defender on the lead and has a long reach. Marking looked solid, and should only improve as he gets stronger - provided he can get stronger and build on his frame. I think he has potential to play either as a deep leading target or as a more mobile CHF type. For Fremantle specifically, he has a touch more speed than Taberner and would provide a good mix with the strength of Treacy.

Obviously all of that is said with the caveat being that it's based off limited viewing. But when does that stop BigFooty.

 

[Knightmare]

#54 Fremantle - Anthony Caminiti (196cm, 83kg, Vic Metro)

I’ll do a write up tomorrow. Strongly considered the three SA tall forwards, but why not take a chance.

Knightmare

I'm going to continue my commitment to building St Kilda a competitive midfield and I'm excited to be adding someone at this point who can walk into the Saints best-22 in round one.

#55 St Kilda - Bailey Rogers

Taken from one of my weekly wraps 15/9 to give a feel for his game:

Earning back-to-back selection across half-back in the 2019 and 2020 WAFL Team of the Year, Bailey Rogers has taken his game up a gear this season and transformed into one of the competition's premier midfielders who can push forward. A Sandover Medal contender as one of the WAFL's best this season, Rogers is an AFL ready, 24-year-old who has not only been finding and winning plenty of the football, but also heavily influencing games.

Through the midfield for Claremont in their one-point loss to South Fremantle, Rogers displayed his first possession winning capabilities, won ground balls off the bounce on the move and showed class with his ball use by hand and foot. While his acceleration is only average, he displayed good agility and a high work rate.

It was forward of centre where Rogers looked most dangerous. Rogers felt like he would hit the scoreboard any time the ball was in his area. He felt dangerous at stoppages around goal, on the lead, one-on-one and when the ball came to ground. While Rogers kicked two goals, if felt like he could have kicked six, missing two gettable opportunities, while another two shots on goal were smothered. It's not unusual for Rogers to hit the scoreboard heavily, kicking seven goals over his past three games.

While Rogers had his lowest output game in a while, with just 18 disposals, his first sub 25 disposal performance in his past eight games, his impact per possession was very high. With Haiden Schloithe and teammate Jye Bolton both playing in the same game and being the measuring sticks in the WAFL for midfield play outside the AFL, Rogers this season has joined them in that top tier of midfielders outside the AFL.

With a style of game baring some similarities to Sydney's Luke Parker, as a well-rounded midfielder who can push forward and provide a threat, Rogers is a plug and play component who would suit an AFL midfield requiring additional versatility and class.

Additional notes: Sandover Medalist and most appealing state league midfielder. 4 game stretch kicking 9 goals at the end of the season. Being that damaging forward of centre and being a legit good midfielder, Rogers is from my perspective a walkup start for the Saints as a rotational mid/fwd who splits his time and impacts games in both positions. Unlucky in his draft year not to get picked, he has persisted, kept improving year on year and with a role where he was more featured this year he has become a problem.


Macca19 you're next.

 

[PMBangers]

#54 Fremantle - Anthony Caminiti (196cm, 83kg, Vic Metro)

I’ll do a write up tomorrow. Strongly considered the three SA tall forwards, but why not take a chance.

Knightmare

Thats not very nice at all

 

[Swiggy]

Thats not very nice at all

Rate him??

 

[Macca19]

Pick 56 - Port Adelaide

Sam Breuer - GWV Rebels

183cm, 80kg Midfielder/Defender

Sam is a versatile small who has shown he can play a variety of roles for GWV Rebels this year. Whether its as a shutdown defender, or as a centre square midfielder, there have been a few constants with his game that show he has some AFL traits, those being toughness, pace, endurance and commitment to his role.

Sam has a good AFL pedigree behind him. His dad is 125-game Shayne Breuer who played in 2 grand finals for Geelong and was part of the inaugural Port Adelaide AFL squad, kicking the first goal for Port Adelaide at AFL level. Shayne was an elite runner and skillful user of the ball who also played a variety of roles at AFL level and Sam has picked up a lot of his traits.

Whilst he played the majority of the season in the backline, there were 3 games where he was moved into the midfield and really showed a lot of intent with his chances of getting drafted. He had 30 disposals, 7 tackles, 6 inside 50s and a goal against Gippsland in Round 8, backing that up with 35 disposals, 12 tackles, 4 inside 50s and a goal in Round 9 as well. There was also another match against Sandringham later in the season where whilst he didn't get a lot of the ball, he was one of the best on ground with strong ball use and good defensive play through the midfield.

The midfield is where I see his future. He is tough at the ball, sets his eyes on it and often wins it and can show good burst speed out of a pack. He has the ability to run all day and makes sure his opponent doesn't win the football. He has a long kick but does need to work on his accuracy at times. The fact he can also play as that shutdown small defender who can create off half back, or as an outside midfielder shows that there are a couple of options that can be developed once in the system.

Arr0w you are up

 

[Arr0w]

Pick 57 - Carlton - Luke Polson 196 94 WA Warnbro Swans JFC (KPP Swingman)

Write up later

Wizard17 you are up

 

[PMBangers]

Pick 57 - Carlton - Luke Polson 196 94 WA Warnbro Swans JFC (KPP Swingman)

Write up later

Davo-27 you are up

almost, Wizard17 gets his first pick

 

[BrutThough]

I'm going to continue my commitment to building St Kilda a competitive midfield and I'm excited to be adding someone at this point who can walk into the Saints best-22 in round one.

#55 St Kilda - Bailey Rogers

Taken from one of my weekly wraps 15/9 to give a feel for his game:

Earning back-to-back selection across half-back in the 2019 and 2020 WAFL Team of the Year, Bailey Rogers has taken his game up a gear this season and transformed into one of the competition's premier midfielders who can push forward. A Sandover Medal contender as one of the WAFL's best this season, Rogers is an AFL ready, 24-year-old who has not only been finding and winning plenty of the football, but also heavily influencing games.

Through the midfield for Claremont in their one-point loss to South Fremantle, Rogers displayed his first possession winning capabilities, won ground balls off the bounce on the move and showed class with his ball use by hand and foot. While his acceleration is only average, he displayed good agility and a high work rate.

It was forward of centre where Rogers looked most dangerous. Rogers felt like he would hit the scoreboard any time the ball was in his area. He felt dangerous at stoppages around goal, on the lead, one-on-one and when the ball came to ground. While Rogers kicked two goals, if felt like he could have kicked six, missing two gettable opportunities, while another two shots on goal were smothered. It's not unusual for Rogers to hit the scoreboard heavily, kicking seven goals over his past three games.

While Rogers had his lowest output game in a while, with just 18 disposals, his first sub 25 disposal performance in his past eight games, his impact per possession was very high. With Haiden Schloithe and teammate Jye Bolton both playing in the same game and being the measuring sticks in the WAFL for midfield play outside the AFL, Rogers this season has joined them in that top tier of midfielders outside the AFL.

With a style of game baring some similarities to Sydney's Luke Parker, as a well-rounded midfielder who can push forward and provide a threat, Rogers is a plug and play component who would suit an AFL midfield requiring additional versatility and class.

Additional notes: Sandover Medalist and most appealing state league midfielder. 4 game stretch kicking 9 goals at the end of the season. Being that damaging forward of centre and being a legit good midfielder, Rogers is from my perspective a walkup start for the Saints as a rotational mid/fwd who splits his time and impacts games in both positions. Unlucky in his draft year not to get picked, he has persisted, kept improving year on year and with a role where he was more featured this year he has become a problem.


Macca19 you're next.

That would be a terrible selection for St Kilda. Last thing we need is another mid 20s inside mid with average acceleration.

Plenty of those types of mids already.

 

[Chris25]

Thats not very nice at all

Shouldn’t have given me Fremantle.

 

[PMBangers]

Shouldn’t have given me Fremantle.

you'll be getting Brisbane next year, that's if we haven't forced someone like Lore to run it instead

 

[Knightmare]

That would be a terrible selection for St Kilda. Last thing we need is another mid 20s inside mid with average acceleration.

Plenty of those types of mids already.

Rogers isn't slow. As per my comments. Agility good. Work rate good. He covers the ground well. And wins it regularly on the move, he isn't one of those stagnant ball winners who feels too slow.

 

[BrutThough]

Rogers isn't slow. As per my comments. Agility good. Work rate good. He covers the ground well. And wins it regularly on the move, he isn't one of those stagnant ball winners who feels too slow.

He'a also more of what we have in an age bracket we dont need anymore of.

 

[Chris25]

#54 Fremantle - Anthony Caminiti (196cm, 83kg, Vic Metro)

I’ll do a write up tomorrow. Strongly considered the three SA tall forwards, but why not take a chance.

Knightmare

It's not a complete shot in the dark, but the room certainly is dimly lit. I'm not going to pretend I've seen a lot of Caminiti, I saw about one and a half games of his this year, although to be fair he only played the 3 NAB League matches having mostly played at Carey. I've seen a lot more of the SA boys and strongly considered them here - the production of Ferres, the potential of Cook and the athleticism of Lukac.

But I'm going with Caminiti, who did receive a Combine invite off the back of his handful of games. It's not a draft stacked full of tall talent, so it feels like a team could take a punt on a high upside guy like Caminiti - whether it's late in the national draft or as a rookie. At the very least, I wouldn't be surprised to see his name pop up again next year if he returns to the U18s.

The reason I've gone with him is just that the overall package is appealing. He has above average athleticism and quickness for a tall, and is particularly good on the lead. In the games I saw, he consistently got away from his defender on the lead and has a long reach. Marking looked solid, and should only improve as he gets stronger - provided he can get stronger and build on his frame. I think he has potential to play either as a deep leading target or as a more mobile CHF type. For Fremantle specifically, he has a touch more speed than Taberner and would provide a good mix with the strength of Treacy.

Obviously all of that is said with the caveat being that it's based off limited viewing. But when does that stop BigFooty.

 

[AsterixTheGaul]

Shouldn’t have given me Fremantle.

Hold firm Chris, the Freo recruiters would be proud of you. Despite there being some excellent WA tall prospects available at your picks, you have stayed loyal to the purple and gone for silky skills and prioritised your midfield.


No surprise with your last pick or rookie draft to address the need for talls

That is what O’Brien does with our need for midfielders.

 

[Wizard17]

Pick 58 - Western Bulldogs - Morgan Ferres (190cm, 80kg Forward via Sturt)

Will do write up a bit later, busy right now.

 

[Davo-27]

pick 59 - Hawthorn - Jake Soligo - Eastern - 179cm 79kg

i was tossing up between Banks and Soligo, but i think Soligo plays a more contested brand of footy(which helps acclimatise to AFL footy) and more so mid/wing than Banks who is hbf/wing, his Vic Metro Game was the deciding factor in the end(as well as Banks having a wrist injury), he was one of the top 6 players for Vic Metro in their win over Vic Country and i value the state performances highly(the other 5 VM guys got taken early Goater, Ward, Daicos, Owens and Curtis), it shows that he can perform under pressure and against the best talent in their age group.

he is a running mid, to add some speed and quality to our mids, as i picked a few accumulators over athletes early, so i went for some speed in the midfield here, i was also looking at Ferres, but he went to the Dogs in the prior pick

Knightmare you're up

 

[weltschmerz]

Pick 58 - Western Bulldogs - Morgan Ferres (190cm, 80kg Forward via Sturt)

Will do write up a bit later, busy right now.

Another Bedendo?

 

[Knightmare]

He'a also more of what we have in an age bracket we dont need anymore of.

If I can get a 30 year old Dustin Martin, I'm taking a 30 year old Dustin Martin. I'd have a team of 30 year olds if they're going to win me a premiership. I'd be entirely comfortable in Geelong's list situation even with the jokes and all about being a retirement village. If they keep drafting mature agers they can remain up as they have sustained since that 2007 flag.

I can't imagine the Saints would have been complaining had Tim Kelly been drafted in 2017 instead of Nick Coffield. Or Tom Stewart in 2016 instead of Ben Long or Josh Battle.

That's how irrelevant age brackets are. In the draft, you draft the best player, regardless of age and regardless of position if they're of a level where they're either going straight into the best-22 or look highly likely to develop into a best-22 player.

What are the odds at pick 55 of securing a long term piece? Dominic Bedendo, Trey Ruscoe, Noah Answerth, Connor Nutting, Jacob Allison, Sam Collins (later delisted by Fremantle), Dean Gore, Orazio Fantasia, Tim Sumner, Matthew Arnot. How many good players taken? Collins was good in his second stint but of those only Fantasia is a success. So you're not expecting someone who will make it. It's a bonus at this stage if you find a long term piece. You might have a 1/5 chance of success based on those numbers from the past 10 years.

What can we observe about mature agers? On average, they outperform the pick they're taken based on career outcome. Look through any draft, look at those drafted as mature agers and you'll see that pattern time and time again.

I've identified a mature ager I'd back to win round 1 selection. That's scoring above that 1/5 chance expectation at this pick this late in the draft.

Age brackets are not just irrelevant, they're entirely irrelevant. It's one of the most blatantly embarrassing misconceptions almost all recruiting departments hold that they need x number of players in a particular age bracket. They talk about it all the time, they'll draft kids out of the u18s, and few from those numbers will be successes.

Any single list focus that isn't on improving your best-22 is counterproductive to building a list. Have that focus, and you're going to be adding the right youth and ignoring the youth who don't genuinely believe will be there in the long run.