AFL 2022 AFL Round 21

[bulletride]

bring Jeka in? is he still around?

Jeka already played last week but is being used as a defender now. Scrimshaw went forward and kicked a couple last week but I guess they probably just bring in Callow.

 

[Suncraze]

3U Gold Coast ML @ $1.95 (Max Play)
Don't get how this is a pick em. Think Gold Coast should be clear favs

1U Melb/GC/Sydney/Bris ML

 

[X_box_X]

3U Gold Coast ML @ $1.95 (Max Play)
Don't get how this is a pick em. Think Gold Coast should be clear favs

1U Melb/GC/Sydney/Bris ML

Hawks have been in better form than Gold Coast.

Hawks seem to be replicating their impressive end of season form from last year. At their home away from home where they are tough to beat, for their captain's 250th game, Hawks should be favourite and should be too good for the Suns.

 

[Geead]

Hawks have been in better form than Gold Coast.

Hawks seem to be replicating their impressive end of season form from last year. At their home away from home where they are tough to beat, for their captain's 250th game, Hawks should be favourite and should be too good for the Suns.

As a Hawks supporter I wouldn't be too sure of this one, our recent 3 straight wins were against Adelaide, WCE, North, I actually kinda like Gold Coast in this one personally (also beat us by nearly 70pts early this year)

 

[NYRB]

Ill take on the Dockers to beat the Bulldogs at the Docklands @ 2.84 on the Smarkets Betting Exchange. Think even a fair price is anything above 2.50+ ish.


Think the Dockers will be up for this one, knowing that a win here could very well secure them that Top 4 spot, with the latter 2 games of the season being almost bankers for them.

 

[GROTTO]

Ill take on the Dockers to beat the Bulldogs at the Docklands @ 2.84 on the Smarkets Betting Exchange. Think even a fair price is anything above 2.50+ ish.


Think the Dockers will be up for this one, knowing that a win here could very well secure them that Top 4 spot, with the latter 2 games of the season being almost bankers for them.

Literally an elimination final for the Dogs, lose and they might not make finals.

Funnily enough Freo in a similar position have the Derby to follow but a soft game v GWS albeit an away trip which adds some hassle.

 

[NYRB]

Literally an elimination final for the Dogs, lose and they might not make finals.

Funnily enough Freo in a similar position have the Derby to follow but a soft game v GWS albeit an away trip which adds some hassle.

Dogs deserve the favourite but given what the Dockers dished up against Richmond a couple of weeks back, i dont see it being a free flowing sort of game. Would love to see it , but given the stakes involved its unlikely to happen. (To all goalscorer bettors, i hope the goalscorers come in through for you )

The current line for the match is Unders/Overs 163.5 pts pick em.

 

[X_box_X]

T English o14.5 disposals at $1.60 w TAB

Last week's low possession count was an anomaly. He has cleared 20 in 9/12 games so to get $1.60 for 15+ is very attractive.

He should have no drama getting 15 at Marvel as the sole ruckman.

This same bet is paying $1.20 w Neds & $1.27 w Pointsbet. It was paying $1.30 last week w TAB.

 

[_ASP3X]

Ill take on the Dockers to beat the Bulldogs at the Docklands @ 2.84 on the Smarkets Betting Exchange. Think even a fair price is anything above 2.50+ ish.


Think the Dockers will be up for this one, knowing that a win here could very well secure them that Top 4 spot, with the latter 2 games of the season being almost bankers for them.

I notice you mention Smarkets quite a bit? Are they regulated in Aus, or do you need to use a VPN or third party account to access it? Any reason you have a preference for Smarkets over Betfair?

 

[fpm84]

With Marshall in H&S protocols I've just taken a hail mary at:

Georgiades 2+
Finlayson 2+ (expecting Teakle to ruck and Fin fwd in place of Marshall)
Bolton 2+
SPP AGS
Cumberland AGS
Dixon AGS
Gray AGS

@105 SB boosted

 

[dontlimitme]

taking a spec on finalyson with marshall out, hopefully they bring in a ruck and play him forward more, odds should come in if they do

3/4/5 @ 10.5/34/101

 

[NYRB]

I notice you mention Smarkets quite a bit? Are they regulated in Aus, or do you need to use a VPN or third party account to access it? Any reason you have a preference for Smarkets over Betfair?

Its 2% commission for all sports and I have a New Zealand address. Liquidity is decent for main sports: soccer, tennis , golf. Pre-Game its just like the other exchanges in terms of Starting Price. I have been travelling to and from New Zealand a few years back. If you read the Betfair exchange community forums, people aren't happy with their product as well. ( eg UK gambling proof of income Ive been reading on their football forums the last week, premium charges, their trial of Australian/UK wallets just to name a few things)

Betfair customer service I must admit not that great. (The Australian side that is) I personally think their staff, think they are better than their customers. Just a bit of lack of empathy from my side. I once got warned from their customer service for doing 'trap betting', warned in betting live betting in Australia going back a few years. Just little nagging things like that.

Smarkets doesn't work with an Australian IP address , you have to be based in the allowed countries. Have tried placing bets from Australia and it comes up with a warning and that bets can't get accepted.

People have scoffed at the suggestions, that having multiple betting exchanges could not work in Australia. I believe more competition is better. Going back 10 years ago, Australian users could pretty much access the majority of overseas, European , some key North American agencies. You will get less monopolistic behaviour from the exchanges for using and doing whatever they think they can do.

Anyway if your after the most competitive prices for : Head to head, Lines, Totals they would be the first thing to use in Australia. If you can get access to the other Betting Exchanges : Betdaq, Matchbook, Smarkets and now in America I heard they have launched their own Sporting betting Exchange in Prophet Exchange.

 

[ippxss]

Finlayson is paying 2.1 anytime goalscorer right now on TAB. Also 1.91 on bet365 but on Sportsbet he's 1.37, Ladbrokes 1.45.

Update: Finlayson now 1.35 on TAB. Anyone with bet365 might wanna get on his AGS soon, still 1.91

 

[bulletride]

Finlayson is paying 2.1 Anytime Goalscorer right now on TAB. Also 1.91 on BET365 but on Sportsbet he's 1.37, Ladbrokes 1.45.

The second I clicked on it lmao

 

[The Brownlow Guru]

Fantasia 3.2 in the SANFL, surely a chance to come in now also worth considering.

 

[ippxss]

Bont is paying 4.25 for 2 goals on TAB, 2.45 on Sportsbet/betright/lads

 

[bulletride]

Anyone else noticed SB have removed most of the markets for multiples for players at longer odds? Is this the death of the SGM trick?

 

[Leeroy Brown 15]

Oh lads I think I found something. Himmel was swung back forward and kicked the first goal of the game last game before they moved him down back again as they were getting smashed badly down back. McVeigh just came out in presser and said this:



Some big prices on TAB for Himmelberg goals especially if they play him forward again which is every chance according to above tweet and like his chances against the Dons at home

2, 3, 4 goals at $4, $15, $31 on TAB (2.45, 6.00, 20.00 on Bet 365)

 

[Sausage Legs]

Oh lads I think I found something. Himmel was swung back forward and kicked the first goal of the game last game before they moved him down back again as they were getting smashed badly down back. McVeigh just came out in presser and said this:



Some big prices on TAB for Himmelberg goals especially if they play him forward again which is every chance according to above tweet and like his chances against the Dons at home

2, 3, 4 goals at $4, $15, $31 on TAB (2.45, 6.00, 20.00 on Bet 365)

Brb, I ain't missing this one

 

[_ASP3X]

Its 2% commission for all sports and I have a New Zealand address. Liquidity is decent for main sports: soccer, tennis , golf. Pre-Game its just like the other exchanges in terms of Starting Price. I have been travelling to and from New Zealand a few years back. If you read the Betfair exchange community forums, people aren't happy with their product as well. ( eg UK gambling proof of income Ive been reading on their football forums the last week, premium charges, their trial of Australian/UK wallets just to name a few things)

Betfair customer service I must admit not that great. (The Australian side that is) I personally think their staff, think they are better than their customers. Just a bit of lack of empathy from my side. I once got warned from their customer service for doing 'trap betting', warned in betting live betting in Australia going back a few years. Just little nagging things like that.

Smarkets doesn't work with an Australian IP address , you have to be based in the allowed countries. Have tried placing bets from Australia and it comes up with a warning and that bets can't get accepted.

People have scoffed at the suggestions, that having multiple betting exchanges could not work in Australia. I believe more competition is better. Going back 10 years ago, Australian users could pretty much access the majority of overseas, European , some key North American agencies. You will get less monopolistic behaviour from the exchanges for using and doing whatever they think they can do.

Anyway if your after the most competitive prices for : Head to head, Lines, Totals they would be the first thing to use in Australia. If you can get access to the other Betting Exchanges : Betdaq, Matchbook, Smarkets and now in America I heard they have launched their own Sporting betting Exchange in Prophet Exchange.

Interesting. Don’t think I’ll be able to use it then, I prefer to just use the regulated options in Australia. I do understand the gripes with Betfair though.

I do wonder if Australia will bring in the proof of income for betting like the UK has. I think if that happened a number of books would just leave Australia. So many people wouldn’t be able to bet anymore and with the amount of tax they already pay, you’d wonder if it would be worth it.

 

[bulletride]

Oh lads I think I found something. Himmel was swung back forward and kicked the first goal of the game last game before they moved him down back again as they were getting smashed badly down back. McVeigh just came out in presser and said this:



Some big prices on TAB for Himmelberg goals especially if they play him forward again which is every chance according to above tweet and like his chances against the Dons at home

2, 3, 4 goals at $4, $15, $31 on TAB (2.45, 6.00, 20.00 on Bet 365)

Got on this earlier in the week (someone posted it earlier in the thread too), my only concern is McVeigh has made similar vague comments about his position every single week since they moved him down back. They also spent a good month naming him forward every week yet playing him down back so who knows what they'll actually do. For the sake of my supercoach side I hope he stays down back but the odds are too good to pass up if he doesn't.

 

[ippxss]

anyone know when Topsport typically releases player disposal/goal scorer markets?

 

[Johanpetro]

anyone know when Topsport typically releases player disposal/goal scorer markets?

For Friday and Saturday games after teams are announced tonight they SLOWLY filter through. Then for Sundays games, Friday night when teams are finalised

 

[NYRB]

anyone know when Topsport typically releases player disposal/goal scorer markets?

I found their goalscorer markets , they usually release about the day before.

They are the slowest in terms of releasing compared to the other 6 I compare weekly.

 

[mozz23]

anyone know when Topsport typically releases player disposal/goal scorer markets?

thursday night around 6pm