Fixture The Fixture analysed- Cat Xmas

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May 5, 2016
43,480
48,514
AFL Club
Geelong
More to the point Plugger last Saturday your team had the perfect chance to actually show they have at least more spine than an earthworm playing a Cats team that was missing a heap of players and had late withdrawals, who were all but locked into a top two spot and due for a down week.

All you could do was piss and moan about umpiring that wasn’t even against you.

If all Saints fans were like you it’s no wonder they’ve played barely more finals in their existence than Michael Tuck did in his career: why would you push yourself for a fan base who excuses every failure you have and blames it on someone else?
 

Duskfire

Norm Smith Medallist
Jun 30, 2007
7,746
7,357
Perth
AFL Club
Geelong
Would it make that much difference if Geelong had a harder draw? They still get the same amount of home games, so instead of say West Coast at GHMBA, they would play Collingwood there then? Or Carlton? Richmond? Geelong would still beat them there. They have a good record at the Gabba against Brisbane as well, and I would back them in to beat Melbourne at the MCG currently (that may change in the future). Two of the teams Geelong have lost to aren't even in the 8, and they struggled to beat West Coast at Optus, so I am not sure if a harder draw would make a difference.

Geelong have typically had decent records against top 8 teams (until the finals of course). The ones us Cats fans are usually worried about are the ones they should win :p
 
Sep 27, 2008
135,220
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AFL Club
St Kilda
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Chelsea, Black Caps, Subiaco
More to the point Plugger last Saturday your team had the perfect chance to actually show they have at least more spine than an earthworm playing a Cats team that was missing a heap of players and had late withdrawals, who were all but locked into a top two spot and due for a down week.

All you could do was piss and moan about umpiring that wasn’t even against you.

If all Saints fans were like you it’s no wonder they’ve played barely more finals in their existence than Michael Tuck did in his career: why would you push yourself for a fan base who excuses every failure you have and blames it on someone else?

We've been missing a number of players with injuries too which is one of the reasons we have dropped off since beating Geelong earlier in the season.

It's also common knowledge that Geelong get a favourable run with the umpires at their home ground, better than the one we get at our home ground, it wasn't the reason we lost last Saturday night as Geelong were clearly the better team but it can still be a factor in you winning so many games there.

Would it make that much difference if Geelong had a harder draw? They still get the same amount of home games, so instead of say West Coast at GHMBA, they would play Collingwood there then? Or Carlton? Richmond? Geelong would still beat them there. They have a good record at the Gabba against Brisbane as well, and I would back them in to beat Melbourne at the MCG currently (that may change in the future). Two of the teams Geelong have lost to aren't even in the 8, and they struggled to beat West Coast at Optus, so I am not sure if a harder draw would make a difference.

Geelong have typically had decent records against top 8 teams (until the finals of course). The ones us Cats fans are usually worried about are the ones they should win :p

As if Collingwood would ever play at your home ground, that's another problem with the fixture, only certain clubs have to play Geelong in Geelong.
 

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Would it make that much difference if Geelong had a harder draw? They still get the same amount of home games, so instead of say West Coast at GHMBA, they would play Collingwood there then? Or Carlton? Richmond? Geelong would still beat them there. They have a good record at the Gabba against Brisbane as well, and I would back them in to beat Melbourne at the MCG currently (that may change in the future). Two of the teams Geelong have lost to aren't even in the 8, and they struggled to beat West Coast at Optus, so I am not sure if a harder draw would make a difference.

Geelong have typically had decent records against top 8 teams (until the finals of course). The ones us Cats fans are usually worried about are the ones they should win :p

Would it make a difference if you played Brisbane in Brisbane and Freo in Perth instead of West Coast and North a second time?
Yeah, I think it would.
 

Duskfire

Norm Smith Medallist
Jun 30, 2007
7,746
7,357
Perth
AFL Club
Geelong
As if Collingwood would ever play at your home ground, that's another problem with the fixture, only certain clubs have to play Geelong in Geelong.

That I agree with, but being that Geelong still has an extremely high winning percentage at their home ground, chances are regardless of who they are playing they probably win. So sure, swap out some of the lesser placed teams and put in Collingwood and Carlton there, I don't think it changes much?
 
Also, Geelongs form interstate this year has actually been just ok. Got by Port and West Coast, lost to the Swans and smacked a pretty woeful GWS.

If the Suns are on this week, will be interesting to see how they go.

I dont think anyone could have predicted Geelongs fixture would be easy before the year. But it is easy. Very easy.
 
May 5, 2016
43,480
48,514
AFL Club
Geelong
We've been missing a number of players with injuries too which is one of the reasons we have dropped off since beating Geelong earlier in the season.

It's also common knowledge that Geelong get a favourable run with the umpires at their home ground, better than the one we get at our home ground, it wasn't the reason we lost last Saturday night as Geelong were clearly the better team but it can still be a factor in you winning so many games there.



As if Collingwood would ever play at your home ground, that's another problem with the fixture, only certain clubs have to play Geelong in Geelong.


Didn’t seem like very common knowledge to the umpires themselves who at one point had St Kilda with a +9 free kick differential in a game we were dominating in virtually every facet.

Did they not get the memo?

And wow - imagine a home crowd having an impact on umpiring. You’d almost think that in the corresponding game at your home ground in your home city the umpires might have been influenced too…..

But you know what? I’d tend to think that it was probably more a case of St Kilda playing better football than us. Like any normal person would.

Take that up with Collingwood perhaps, rather than us - the club who requests that all our home games are at home.

Keep writing off every misstep of your club as someone else’s fault mate. It’s great.
 
Sep 7, 2005
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Geelong's fixture has been easier than some of their fellow finalists, but this is primarily due to the Bulldogs and Port (who they've both played twice) being worse than expected. Virtually no-one would have predicted one - or potentially both - of those teams would have missed the 8.

This. When the fixture was released, nobody thought double ups against Port or the Bulldogs were easy.
In fact, I wrote off Dogs at Marvel and Port at AO as probably losses.

It's not Geelong's fault neither team has lived up to expectation this season, and in any case, the Dogs were in the top eight when we beat them a fortnight ago.

Getting North twice was obviously a bonus, but WCE were not meant to be a basket case (9th last season) and St Kilda were always going to be a 7th-10th type team IMO.
 
You can only play who is in front of you.

Geelong's double ups with 2021 finishing position:
North Melbourne 18th, St Kilda 10th, Port Adelaide 4th, West Coast Eagles 9th, Western Bulldogs 2nd

Now looking at those sides, you'd have assumed going into 2022 that North would be about the same, Saints should challenge for finals, Port will be top 4 again, West Coast might slide into the bottom 4 and the Bulldogs would be top 4. Meaning they would have:
2x Top 4
1x Top8
2x Bottom 4

Which isn't a dream but also isn't the worst. But you can't predict the future and that actually turns into:
0x Top 8
3x Middle 6
2x Bottom 4 (bottom 2 in reality)

Geelong may have gotten a benefit that teams that were supposed to improve or hold their ladder position, fell down. If at the end of last season they had Collingwood twice instead of the Eagles, people would say their draw was even easier but we wouldn't be here in this thread now.

Until the fixture is every team twice, once at home, once away some teams will always benefit from it. It usually sorts itself out in finals though, one way or another
 

FreddyTwoShoes

All Australian
May 1, 2012
934
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Also, Geelongs form interstate this year has actually been just ok. Got by Port and West Coast, lost to the Swans and smacked a pretty woeful GWS.

If the Suns are on this week, will be interesting to see how they go.

I dont think anyone could have predicted Geelongs fixture would be easy before the year. But it is easy. Very easy.

lol. 75% is "just okay".
How would you describe a 100% record? "fairly good"?
 

russ

Team Captain
Sep 15, 2003
582
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back in town
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West Coast
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So after finishing 9th last year the AFL should have known they’d go 2-18.

Right.

Is there literally any other excuse you could make for your own team not being as good as others. Like literally anything.
Regardless of where WC are on the ladder, we are easybeats @ KP. Such an easy game to finish the year for you guys, and after a GC trip to boot.
 
May 5, 2016
43,480
48,514
AFL Club
Geelong
Regardless of where WC are on the ladder, we are easybeats @ KP. Such an easy game to finish the year for you guys, and after a GC trip to boot.


And if you guys were flying we’d be accused of being kissed on the dick because we have an early rehearsal to harden us for finals before the general bye.

That’s how this works.
 

russ

Team Captain
Sep 15, 2003
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back in town
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And if you guys were flying we’d be accused of being kissed on the dick because we have an early rehearsal to harden us for finals before the general bye.

That’s how this works.
So you honestly don't pencil that fixture in for a 6+ goal win for you guys every time it comes round? Cos I (and probably about 95% of WC and AFL supporters) certainly pencil it in as a 6+ goal loss for us.
 

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FreddyTwoShoes

All Australian
May 1, 2012
934
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Geelong
So you honestly don't pencil that fixture in for a 6+ goal win for you guys every time it comes round? Cos I (and probably about 95% of WC and AFL supporters) certainly pencil it in as a 6+ goal loss for us.
Nope - I always remember that time 20 odd years ago where you came back from 40 points down to beat us at KP. Still gives me the shakes.
 
Apr 3, 2006
33,469
11,826
AFL Club
Geelong
Yes, and West Coast being massively worse than expected too.

Meanwhile a team like St Kilda was disadvantaged because one of their double opponents unexpectedly rose up the ladder- Fremantle. Another, Sydney, were a top 6 Home and Away team and everyone expected would be a top 6 team again, but were rated middle 6 after finishing 15-7 and losing an elimination final by a point to the 11-1-10 GWS.

Basically Geelong got very lucky with double up opponents and St Kilda got very unlucky. Giving Geelong, essentially a 2 win head start on St Kilda based purely on opponents faced.

And of course, having 9 games at KP while St Kilda has less advantage at Marvel and sells a home game to Cairns (which they lost by a point after kicking 4.18 in humid conditions) means Geelong has about another 1-2 wins advantage based on home ground advantage. So Geelong will probably finish 6 wins ahead of St Kilda but statistically you can reasonably attribute 3 or 4 wins to playing easier opposition and the Kardinia Park advantage.

This easy fixture and the KP advantage, along with Geelong's long-standing poor finals record are the reasons I don't agree with the bookies assessment of them as short priced favourites.

Unless the AFL brings in a floating fixture and determines double opponents a few weeks before the final 5 rounds, these discrepancies with double opponents will always occur. But that's probably not a pragmatic suggestion and unlikely to happen.
I think St Kilda's problem, more than who Geelong plays twice, is it's inability to beat the Ports, Bulldogs and Essendons of the competition. Even the easier opposition are not so easy when you're talking about St Kilda.
 
May 5, 2016
43,480
48,514
AFL Club
Geelong
So you honestly don't pencil that fixture in for a 6+ goal win for you guys every time it comes round? Cos I (and probably about 95% of WC and AFL supporters) certainly pencil it in as a 6+ goal loss for us.


Who cares. Should the AFL start fixturing based on other side’s inabilities to win at certain venues now.

Other teams always have the option of, you know, playing better.

We have won matches in seasons with the hardest fixture, with mediocre fixtures, away, at home, with father sons, without them, with free agents, without them, with low draft picks, mature age recruits, rookies, the works.

Imagine if we’d actually won any trophies in the last decade. The bitterness would be off the charts.
 

russ

Team Captain
Sep 15, 2003
582
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back in town
AFL Club
West Coast
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Liverpool
Who cares. Should the AFL start fixturing based on other side’s inabilities to win at certain venues now.

Other teams always have the option of, you know, playing better.

We have won matches in seasons with the hardest fixture, with mediocre fixtures, away, at home, with father sons, without them, with free agents, without them, with low draft picks, mature age recruits, rookies, the works.

Imagine if we’d actually won any trophies in the last decade. The bitterness would be off the charts.
Who cares? It's the point we're arguing. KP is an eagle graveyard and it's the easiest game you could possibly ask for to finish the season regardless of where WC are at.
 
May 5, 2016
43,480
48,514
AFL Club
Geelong
Who cares? It's the point we're arguing. KP is an eagle graveyard and it's the easiest game you could possibly ask for to finish the season regardless of where WC are at.
And the one I’m arguing back is that the game’s governing body shouldn’t be fixturing teams because ‘they don’t win there.’

Imagine if the NRL started giving NSW 2 games every year at Homebush because they lost 10 out of 11 series’ against Queensland.

Hell, Australian cricket fans blew their stack because Cricket Australia changed the opening Test of the summer from the Gabba where Australia traditionally blows the visiting team off the paddock every year.

Rightly it was argued that it’s not Australia’s fault if the other team isn’t good enough
 

tonygeeks

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 11, 2016
7,545
11,152
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Fremantle
So what do you do about it? 18 clubs does not go into a 22 game season which means some teams are going to play moree against finalist than others and no-one knows who those teams may be

What about teams pick their own fixture for a bit of entertainment value

Everyone plays each other = 17

Everyone has a rival = 18

Everyone plays 2 in the same 6 team bracket they finish = 20

Everyone plays 1 from the other brackets = 22

North has first pick of the ‘spare’ 4 games and so on in draft order till the fixture is set

Might be fun , bit of strategy to it with profit vs performance pressures affecting teams motivations
 
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Jackington

Back Flank Battler
Sep 23, 2021
336
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Geelong
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East Fremantle
Fremantle didn't make finals last year and Brisbane failed to qualify for a prelim, so the AFL weren't really factoring those sides into "tough fixtures," - plus they lost to Fremantle at home anyway.

Geelong played two of last year's final four twice (Port and Bulldogs), 10th placed St Kilda twice and 9th placed West Coast twice, but you're complaining they didn't play 11th placed Fremantle, 12th placed Richmond, 13th placed Carlton or 17th placed Collingwood twice?
 

Jackington

Back Flank Battler
Sep 23, 2021
336
681
State of Constant Anxiety
AFL Club
Geelong
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East Fremantle
Who cares? It's the point we're arguing. KP is an eagle graveyard and it's the easiest game you could possibly ask for to finish the season regardless of where WC are at.
Geelong have been cursed in recent seasons by easy runs home, thanks to the AFL cramming in all of the KP home games into the last five or six weeks, leaving them sorely unprepared for a fellow top four side in a Qualifying Final. Looking just as bad this year, despite the fact the Doggies and Saints are fighting for a finals berth.
 

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