Fixture The Fixture analysed- Cat Xmas

Remove this Banner Ad

Oct 16, 2006
7,790
7,445
Melbourne
AFL Club
Geelong
We have an easy fixture no doubt but the problem is it works against the true good sides. We haven’t been tested regularly enough and will go into finals with easy games.
Every chance we put up 200 vs WCE in Geelong for Paddy’s 300th.

We get a bye and will likely start poorly like every other year. I just hope we lose a close one so we get another match to harden ourselves before a preliminary final.

Of the 12 qualifying final winners since a bye was introduced only 5 have won the preliminary finals and 3 of them were against us btw.

So 2 other qualifying final winners out of 9 have gone on to make a grand final.
We beat up Brisbane having lost week 1 at the Gabba and got smacked by Sydney at the G the only time we won a qualifying final.

I hate byes and soft lead ins to finals.
 

Jackington

Back Flank Battler
Sep 23, 2021
336
681
State of Constant Anxiety
AFL Club
Geelong
Other Teams
East Fremantle
I've gone to way too much effort for a thread on bigfooty, but here it is:

The 2022 Fixture ranked for fairness, based on the 2021 AFL season:

PosGroupTeamG1G2G3Rating
1​
G1Melbourne (P)
3​
1​
1​
Hard
2​
G1Western Bulldogs
3​
1​
1​
Hard
3​
G1Port Adelaide
2​
2​
1​
Fair
4​
G1Geelong
2​
2​
1​
Fair
5​
G1Brisbane Lions
2​
2​
1​
Fair
6​
G1Greater Western Sydney
2​
2​
1​
Fair
7​
G2Sydney
2​
2​
1​
Fair
8​
G2Essendon
2​
2​
1​
Fair
9​
G2West Coast
1​
2​
2​
Fair
10​
G2St Kilda
2​
2​
1​
Fair
11​
G2Fremantle
2​
2​
1​
Fair
12​
G2Richmond
1​
2​
2​
Fair
13​
G3Carlton
1​
2​
2​
Fair
14​
G3Hawthorn
1​
2​
2​
Fair
15​
G3Adelaide
1​
1​
3​
Easy
16​
G3Gold Coast
1​
1​
3​
Easy
17​
G3Collingwood
1​
1​
3​
Easy
18​
G3North Melbourne
1​
1​
3​
Easy

Almost like someone at the fixturing department thought about this beforehand, and only gave the Grand Finalists marginally harder fixtures, and the bottom four marginally easier fixtures...
 

Log in to remove this ad.

Dude, I've done no additional gymnastics than you. I simply put a different finalist in (Bulldogs replacing Carlton), and also corrected your stats - with how many more finalists Melbourne play, and that playing West Coast twice hasn't happened yet, so may have no impact at all on the season.

How the hell do you expect the fixture creators to get all this stuff in (interstate finalists)?

You realize how many combinations there are for 8 out of 18 teams?

My maths tell me there's over 40k possible combinations (without repetition), though I likely have messed that up. Either way, you get the point - there's a lot. And that's without considering home ground.

As it is, the outcome if the Bulldogs make it, is pretty damn amazing I think - even changing the fixture on the fly could struggle to make it that even. I'd like to see if any previous seasons have worked out that even.
The other hilarious thing is if you put the Dogs in, the only side they p
I've gone to way too much effort for a thread on bigfooty, but here it is:

The 2022 Fixture ranked for fairness, based on the 2021 AFL season:

PosGroupTeamG1G2G3Rating
1​
G1Melbourne (P)
3​
1​
1​
Hard
2​
G1Western Bulldogs
3​
1​
1​
Hard
3​
G1Port Adelaide
2​
2​
1​
Fair
4​
G1Geelong
2​
2​
1​
Fair
5​
G1Brisbane Lions
2​
2​
1​
Fair
6​
G1Greater Western Sydney
2​
2​
1​
Fair
7​
G2Sydney
2​
2​
1​
Fair
8​
G2Essendon
2​
2​
1​
Fair
9​
G2West Coast
1​
2​
2​
Fair
10​
G2St Kilda
2​
2​
1​
Fair
11​
G2Fremantle
2​
2​
1​
Fair
12​
G2Richmond
1​
2​
2​
Fair
13​
G3Carlton
1​
2​
2​
Fair
14​
G3Hawthorn
1​
2​
2​
Fair
15​
G3Adelaide
1​
1​
3​
Easy
16​
G3Gold Coast
1​
1​
3​
Easy
17​
G3Collingwood
1​
1​
3​
Easy
18​
G3North Melbourne
1​
1​
3​
Easy

Almost like someone at the fixturing department thought about this beforehand, and only gave the Grand Finalists marginally harder fixtures, and the bottom four marginally easier fixtures...

I never said that it was rigged for the Cats to get an easy draw. All I have said is that they have had an easy draw. It's the way it has turned out. Melbourne has had a hard draw, despite people thinking it was easy at the start of the year. So the gap between the likely two best teams will be greater on the ladder due to the fixture.
 

Gazza Greatness

Premium Platinum
Oct 11, 2008
633
1,118
Werribee
AFL Club
Geelong
The other hilarious thing is if you put the Dogs in, the only side they p


I never said that it was rigged for the Cats to get an easy draw. All I have said is that they have had an easy draw. It's the way it has turned out. Melbourne has had a hard draw, despite people thinking it was easy at the start of the year. So the gap between the likely two best teams will be greater on the ladder due to the fixture.
What makes you think if Geelong played Collingwood & Melbourne the last 2 games instead of Gold Coast & The Eagles (to balance the figures) that there would be any difference. there would be no difference, still finish on top of ladder whether we win both games or none. Most Geelong supporters don't even want out current fixture for last 2 games to be Gold Coast and The Eagles, it doesn't help us going into finals. Geelong is in a powerful position on the ladder because they have played a consistent high level of football for a large chunk of games, something not even a most biased Geelong supporter would have thought possible going back 12 games ago when St Kilda beat the Cats at Marvel Stadium.
 

lordbob

Team Captain
Aug 21, 2009
504
632
AFL Club
Hawthorn
I really want us to win the flag because it’s my team.

But the main reason I want us to win is to see what the next whinge will be about why it happened.

I’ve narrowed it down to a few reasons just to prep myself.

- we have better photos of the MCG ground dimensions than whoever we play against

- our coffee on the morning of the GF was warmer

- our perennially Pick 15+ draft hand was unfair because we’ve told players we scouted to deliberately be worse at junior level so other clubs would miss them

- Mark Blicavs is too fit

- Josh Kennedy was paid to retire two weeks early so we wouldn’t lose Sam De Mining’s run of form in the lead up to finals

- Steven Hocking was wearing an invisible suit and between quarters would widen the goals at whichever end Geelong was kicking to

- the resin on Tom Hawkins’ shorts was sourced by Stephen Dank

- We are playing with 19 men on the field but because half a dozen are blonde with headbands no one can do a proper headcount
- because hawthorn didnt make the GF :D
 

Angus Young

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 3, 2008
7,392
7,872
AFL Club
Hawthorn
So I guess the biggest discrepancy here is Melbourne play 3 more games against finalists than Geelong and the Cats get 2 extra games against the easy beats. Not saying the cats are phonies, but that is an unbelievable advantage over a 22 game season which I have heard pretty much nothing about. Wouldn't be ruling the Dees out yet.

Dees are right in it.

Cats or Dees for me.
 

My_Username

Club Legend
Jun 23, 2022
1,570
1,324
AFL Club
Gold Coast
Problem with this sort of after the fact analysis is that is can get cause and effect mixed up.

Team A plays and beats team B twice.

Team B just misses finals.

Did team A have an easy draw because they played a non finalist twice, or did their draw seem easier because they caused team B to miss finals by beating them twice?
 

Nicho50

Club Legend
Apr 20, 2022
2,664
3,029
AFL Club
Richmond
Who cares , they have been the best team across the season regardless of fixture but lets see how it goes in finals. This team has probably been the worst finals performer over the last decade and haven't been able to mentally handle it. This year they seem to have a better style that is actually good to watch and have a good squad which has been helped big time with the additions of De Koning, Stengle and Atkins moving to the middle. Regardless of who they played and where they deserve to be sitting top and flag favourites.
 

JohnZ

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 10, 2016
7,757
11,594
AFL Club
Geelong
Not sure how they got one of the easiest fixtures when they played in a prelim while we got one of the hardest fixtures and we missed the finals.

Just look at the last 2 rounds, they get two pretty easy games against the Gold Coast and West Coast while we play top 8 teams in Brisbane and Sydney
If I were you, I'd be more concerned by why your club has struggled to win a game since beating us at Marvel and figuring out what's gone wrong. Was absolutely flying and a lock for top 8, beat quality opponents too (like Geelong and Freo)
 

Ricketz

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 2, 2011
7,742
9,528
Wagga Wagga
AFL Club
Geelong
We have an easy fixture no doubt but the problem is it works against the true good sides. We haven’t been tested regularly enough and will go into finals with easy games.
Every chance we put up 200 vs WCE in Geelong for Paddy’s 300th.

We get a bye and will likely start poorly like every other year. I just hope we lose a close one so we get another match to harden ourselves before a preliminary final.

Of the 12 qualifying final winners since a bye was introduced only 5 have won the preliminary finals and 3 of them were against us btw.

So 2 other qualifying final winners out of 9 have gone on to make a grand final.
We beat up Brisbane having lost week 1 at the Gabba and got smacked by Sydney at the G the only time we won a qualifying final.

I hate byes and soft lead ins to finals.
It's funny how fear can fog the mind and make one choose irrational options.

There is no benefit to losing.
 

Ricketz

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 2, 2011
7,742
9,528
Wagga Wagga
AFL Club
Geelong
I've gone to way too much effort for a thread on bigfooty, but here it is:

The 2022 Fixture ranked for fairness, based on the 2021 AFL season:

PosGroupTeamG1G2G3Rating
1​
G1Melbourne (P)
3​
1​
1​
Hard
2​
G1Western Bulldogs
3​
1​
1​
Hard
3​
G1Port Adelaide
2​
2​
1​
Fair
4​
G1Geelong
2​
2​
1​
Fair
5​
G1Brisbane Lions
2​
2​
1​
Fair
6​
G1Greater Western Sydney
2​
2​
1​
Fair
7​
G2Sydney
2​
2​
1​
Fair
8​
G2Essendon
2​
2​
1​
Fair
9​
G2West Coast
1​
2​
2​
Fair
10​
G2St Kilda
2​
2​
1​
Fair
11​
G2Fremantle
2​
2​
1​
Fair
12​
G2Richmond
1​
2​
2​
Fair
13​
G3Carlton
1​
2​
2​
Fair
14​
G3Hawthorn
1​
2​
2​
Fair
15​
G3Adelaide
1​
1​
3​
Easy
16​
G3Gold Coast
1​
1​
3​
Easy
17​
G3Collingwood
1​
1​
3​
Easy
18​
G3North Melbourne
1​
1​
3​
Easy

Almost like someone at the fixturing department thought about this beforehand, and only gave the Grand Finalists marginally harder fixtures, and the bottom four marginally easier fixtures...
Nice work. Won't suit the narrative, but it's clear as day what the intentions were.
 

nineteen eighty

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 18, 2003
7,084
7,396
Sydney
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
TIGERS
I really want us to win the flag because it’s my team.

But the main reason I want us to win is to see what the next whinge will be about why it happened.

I’ve narrowed it down to a few reasons just to prep myself.

- we have better photos of the MCG ground dimensions than whoever we play against

- our coffee on the morning of the GF was warmer

- our perennially Pick 15+ draft hand was unfair because we’ve told players we scouted to deliberately be worse at junior level so other clubs would miss them

- Mark Blicavs is too fit

- Josh Kennedy was paid to retire two weeks early so we wouldn’t lose Sam De Mining’s run of form in the lead up to finals

- Steven Hocking was wearing an invisible suit and between quarters would widen the goals at whichever end Geelong was kicking to

- the resin on Tom Hawkins’ shorts was sourced by Stephen Dank

- We are playing with 19 men on the field but because half a dozen are blonde with headbands no one can do a proper headcount

- because Dusty didn't tear our soft c0cks a new one!
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

nineteen eighty

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 18, 2003
7,084
7,396
Sydney
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
TIGERS
Who cares , they have been the best team across the season regardless of fixture but lets see how it goes in finals. This team has probably been the worst finals performer over the last decade and haven't been able to mentally handle it. This year they seem to have a better style that is actually good to watch and have a good squad which has been helped big time with the additions of De Koning, Stengle and Atkins moving to the middle. Regardless of who they played and where they deserve to be sitting top and flag favourites.

Pretty much sums up my thinking. It's obvious that they have improved...addition of players in key spots, change of game plan etc...

I'm still not sold that the Cats midfield can hold up in a big game on the MCG but that's just one man's opinion. Time will tell but absolutely deserved favourites going into September.
 
May 5, 2016
43,480
48,513
AFL Club
Geelong
Pretty much sums up my thinking. It's obvious that they have improved...addition of players in key spots, change of game plan etc...

I'm still not sold that the Cats midfield can hold up in a big game on the MCG but that's just one man's opinion. Time will tell but absolutely deserved favourites going into September.

The key factor will be this:
Let’s say Melbourne for example get going through the middle.

I believe the level that Atkins, Holmes, Guthrie, Blicavs, Stanley, Parfitt, Duncan when he’s been in the middle etc have played at for the last, say, 6 weeks, can match that. They haven’t had the careers of the Melbourne players but their immediate form has been excellent.

1. Can those relatively underrated players maintain that ‘above themselves’ level in a big final against a good opponent

2. Pending the first point, if they don’t maintain that level, can Selwood and Dangerfield go up a notch and make up the shortfall. Selwood’s days of 28, 16 contested and 8 tackles are gone but he’s still our most reliable player when it gets tough to get in and funnel out the ball. Dangerfield is still our hardest body in the middle.

If those factors fall in our favour I think our defence and attack are steady enough to do what they need to do
 
Oct 20, 2004
17,109
20,898
Brisbane
AFL Club
Geelong
Other Teams
Pompey
This is just luck, good or bad. Some teams rise with it and others fall.

If we’re sticking with 18 teams and 22 games then I think all teams need to play each other first. The final five games fixtured mathematically based on the ladder at that point. Have the bye after round 17 to help. Maybe extrapolate the ladder after round 15 to give more time for planning.
I do get the argument, but it is a bit painful for interstate or travelling supporters.
 

My_Username

Club Legend
Jun 23, 2022
1,570
1,324
AFL Club
Gold Coast
This is just luck, good or bad. Some teams rise with it and others fall.

If we’re sticking with 18 teams and 22 games then I think all teams need to play each other first. The final five games fixtured mathematically based on the ladder at that point. Have the bye after round 17 to help. Maybe extrapolate the ladder after round 15 to give more time for planning.

So after 17 rounds, the team placed 8th gets a tougher draw than the team placed 9th, due to a 0.1% difference, and ends up missing finals as a result.

ummm....


Or we could just accept that it's never going to be completely fair and even, and accept the issues that come with it as just another quirk of the game.
 

Square Peg

Cancelled
Fremantle Poster of the Year Fremantle Board Tipping Champion
Jul 20, 2014
8,194
18,414
AFL Club
Fremantle
So after 17 rounds, the team placed 8th gets a tougher draw than the team placed 9th, due to a 0.1% difference, and ends up missing finals as a result.

ummm....


Or we could just accept that it's never going to be completely fair and even, and accept the issues that come with it as just another quirk of the game.
Teams placed 8th and 9th after 17 rounds are in the same tier of teams 7-12 and would get the same type of fixture
I repeat, just because we can't get the only truly fair draw (34 round, play each team H&A) doesn't mean we can't make the current fixturing better
 

nineteen eighty

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 18, 2003
7,084
7,396
Sydney
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
TIGERS
The key factor will be this:
Let’s say Melbourne for example get going through the middle.

I believe the level that Atkins, Holmes, Guthrie, Blicavs, Stanley, Parfitt, Duncan when he’s been in the middle etc have played at for the last, say, 6 weeks, can match that. They haven’t had the careers of the Melbourne players but their immediate form has been excellent.

1. Can those relatively underrated players maintain that ‘above themselves’ level in a big final against a good opponent

2. Pending the first point, if they don’t maintain that level, can Selwood and Dangerfield go up a notch and make up the shortfall. Selwood’s days of 28, 16 contested and 8 tackles are gone but he’s still our most reliable player when it gets tough to get in and funnel out the ball. Dangerfield is still our hardest body in the middle.

If those factors fall in our favour I think our defence and attack are steady enough to do what they need to do

Personally, I don't believe in players playing "above themselves". I do think they play to their level and can then be enhanced / look better based on game plan. Cats are certainly playing to optimum level and game plan suits them.

Two questions:

1/ can they improve further in September in the big games? Unknown...we'll find out soon enough.
2/ do they have the pace to cover the bigger ground (MCG)? Again, to be determined. You did run over the Pies earlier this year so maybe the team does have the pace required.
 
May 5, 2016
43,480
48,513
AFL Club
Geelong
Personally, I don't believe in players playing "above themselves". I do think they play to their level and can then be enhanced / look better based on game plan. Cats are certainly playing to optimum level and game plan suits them.

Two questions:

1/ can they improve further in September in the big games? Unknown...we'll find out soon enough.
2/ do they have the pace to cover the bigger ground (MCG)? Again, to be determined. You did run over the Pies earlier this year so maybe the team does have the pace required.


I don’t think pace is or was as big an issue as what we copped for a long time. We’ve never been a dynamite side but we’ve never been especially slow either. Our game style was because playing a fast game style would have been unsustainable for four quarters.
We copped it a lot for our chipping style - ‘why don’t you attack why are you so safe?’ The coaches we had believed it was the best way that particular group could give itself the best chance to win. It didn’t work, I have no problem with that.

We HAVE added some extra pace, no argument there - Holmes, close, Stengle, Miers, they’ve all made the average speed of our team a bit quicker but what is noticeable is how sustainable it’s been.

Stanley is exceptionally quick for a big guy, Danger is still very fast, Cameron is an athlete and has size, Rohan is still quick, Blicavs is fast but all of them seem to be able to keep it going for long periods and it has meant that those examples of sides beating us with a burst at the start of the year like fremantle, Hawthorn, st Kilda, and Collingwood for a while (that was Jeremy Cameron beating them in the fourth term, not Geelong IMO) can’t just blow us off the paddock and then hold us. They know we will keep coming. An example of that was the tigers - they played awesome footy from midway through the second term till midway through the fourth but we were still coming at them and when we did get the game on our terms again we still had enough left to get the lead back.

Every side bangs on about ‘the toughest pre season ever’ etc but fitness plays more of a part in this game now than ever I reckon
 
Plus the cats fail to play Brisbane in Brisbane or Fremantle in Perth this season. Luckiest fixture ever.
idk, Adelaide 2012 was pretty damn lucky.....
 
May 30, 2006
17,525
10,295
Canberra
AFL Club
North Melbourne
There will be easier and harder fixtures, no matter what. Even if everyone played each other twice, when you play (six day break against an eight day break) and where makes (not playing Geelong at Kardinia, playing Hawthorn at York Park, etc) some difference.
For the most part it only really impacts the middle of the table. A team not quite as good gets a bonus elimination final loss. Other than eight being too many finalists, what difference does it make.
At the very top of the table, where likely premiers are more likely to sit, even making a one win difference is probably rare. Geelong will beat most teams in most circumstances, North will lose to all teams in most circumstances.

And 22 rounds into 18 teams doesn't go. 17 rounds would leave some teams with 9 home games, others with 8.

What I would change:
  • Make the double-ups basically random to avoid the (appearance of?) favourtism. Ensure the non-Vic teams play their derbies twice to reduce the travel issue a little, and the rest just shove into a hat and draw the double-ups. It might result in uneven fixturing, but so does everything else and at least its an open process
  • Try to swap the home and away match-ups as much as possible so there aren't long gaps of one team hosting another
  • No back-to-back away interstate travel, if a home game is interstate that's is that club's choice
  • Get rid of the pre-finals bye, we know why it was there but it seems to cause more issues than it solves
  • After a mid-season bye, play against another team coming off the mid-season bye. Ideally, pre-bye play against a team also heading into the bye.
 

Remove this Banner Ad

Back