List Mgmt. 2022 Draft and Trade Hypotheticals: Kinnear & Dalrymple - we march to no drum but our own!
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- May 18, 2021
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My current preferences for our first pick: Jefferson, Busslinger, Allan, Barnett, Hustwaite in roughly that order. I've been influenced by Hustwaite sliding so far in Cal Twomey's latest power rankings. Jefferson and Busslinger are first because they are our greatest needs. If our recruiters deem Jefferson worthy of selection and we get him, I'll be delighted because suddenly the future up forward with Logan is looking like it might be in hand.
If we got any of those players, or Keeler, or a mid like George or Hewett at our second pick I'll be pretty happy with that.
There are an awful lot of players who show some promise that could be around at our third pick. If we took Van Es I'd be happy with that. I'd be even happier with Munkara but doubt we'll get him there.
Still hoping for a ruck with either a fourth pick or (more likely) in the rookie draft: e.g. Broadbent, Knobel, Boyd.
Still hoping we take Bradtke as our Cat B rookie.
****
A few words about Cal Twomey, most of which I've said before but which I think are often overlooked and so I will dare to repeat them.
1. There is a very important distinction to be made between Twomey's draft 'power rankings' v his 'phantom draft'. The second is what he excels at but the former is what we spend more time talking about.
2. The power ranking are Cal's own attempt at doing what we do and putting an order to the various potential draftees. I suspect his rankings are largely informed by the substantial inside mail he is privy to. So, his opinions count for a lot more than mine. I think his rankings are partly but not so much based on his own ability to assess who's good and who's not (unlike, say, Kin Beatson or Kevin Sheahan, who are shrewd judges of footy talent and form their own assessments (still based partly on the reports of others but informed by their own expertise to a greater degree).
3. The phantom draft is entirely based on the intel Cal picks up here there and everywhere. It is in this domain that he excels - especially in the first round. Cal has an exceptional record at predicting the first 10-20 of the draft. HOWEVER, there are a couple of important caveats:
a) he is only able to release this phantom draft on the eve of the actual draft (no doubt because the situation is so fluid etc.)
b) his track record at predicting our club's first round picks is much worse than for most other clubs. As already pointed out he's only succeeded with our Academy picks.
My point is that: the power rankings that Cal publishes in the months preceding the draft are not the basis of his deserved good reputation and are nowhere near as accurate as his phantom draft published on the eve of the draft.
I read what Cal Twomey writes with interest - not so much because I think he's necessarily the most astute judge of young talent but because he has a lot of connections to those who are, and because he works really hard at his craft. It would be a major exercise to gather together a consensus of drafts 'revisited' lists and then compare them to the draft rankings published by Cal and other draft pundits each year. I don't think that Cal would especially stand out more than the others for his rankings - but I have no idea who (if anybody) would.
What I'd personally be much more interested in is to see our recruiters' rankings lists from years gone by!
If we got any of those players, or Keeler, or a mid like George or Hewett at our second pick I'll be pretty happy with that.
There are an awful lot of players who show some promise that could be around at our third pick. If we took Van Es I'd be happy with that. I'd be even happier with Munkara but doubt we'll get him there.
Still hoping for a ruck with either a fourth pick or (more likely) in the rookie draft: e.g. Broadbent, Knobel, Boyd.
Still hoping we take Bradtke as our Cat B rookie.
****
A few words about Cal Twomey, most of which I've said before but which I think are often overlooked and so I will dare to repeat them.
1. There is a very important distinction to be made between Twomey's draft 'power rankings' v his 'phantom draft'. The second is what he excels at but the former is what we spend more time talking about.
2. The power ranking are Cal's own attempt at doing what we do and putting an order to the various potential draftees. I suspect his rankings are largely informed by the substantial inside mail he is privy to. So, his opinions count for a lot more than mine. I think his rankings are partly but not so much based on his own ability to assess who's good and who's not (unlike, say, Kin Beatson or Kevin Sheahan, who are shrewd judges of footy talent and form their own assessments (still based partly on the reports of others but informed by their own expertise to a greater degree).
3. The phantom draft is entirely based on the intel Cal picks up here there and everywhere. It is in this domain that he excels - especially in the first round. Cal has an exceptional record at predicting the first 10-20 of the draft. HOWEVER, there are a couple of important caveats:
a) he is only able to release this phantom draft on the eve of the actual draft (no doubt because the situation is so fluid etc.)
b) his track record at predicting our club's first round picks is much worse than for most other clubs. As already pointed out he's only succeeded with our Academy picks.
My point is that: the power rankings that Cal publishes in the months preceding the draft are not the basis of his deserved good reputation and are nowhere near as accurate as his phantom draft published on the eve of the draft.
I read what Cal Twomey writes with interest - not so much because I think he's necessarily the most astute judge of young talent but because he has a lot of connections to those who are, and because he works really hard at his craft. It would be a major exercise to gather together a consensus of drafts 'revisited' lists and then compare them to the draft rankings published by Cal and other draft pundits each year. I don't think that Cal would especially stand out more than the others for his rankings - but I have no idea who (if anybody) would.
What I'd personally be much more interested in is to see our recruiters' rankings lists from years gone by!
Dubai Quacker
Wily Old Campaigner
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DQ’s phantom* Swans draft (Nov 20 edition):
14: Allan
17: Weddle
42: Hagan
* phantom draft = dream draft
Busslinger and Sam Gilbey would also be perfectly acceptable. And Elijah Hewett is firming as a sneaky chance.
14: Allan
17: Weddle
42: Hagan
* phantom draft = dream draft
Busslinger and Sam Gilbey would also be perfectly acceptable. And Elijah Hewett is firming as a sneaky chance.
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Kapers
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I think also, as a team, we don't fall into the trap of recruiting for a big midfield. We obviously have focused on a dynamic midfield and have drafted for said midfield.
As much as I'm disappointed in the grand final, I'm just so excited to see where this club can go.
- Feb 5, 2012
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Excellent article and reporting on AFL.com about the upcoming draft has us linked to every player bar the top 4. Journos earning their money at the moment.
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Normally I am a mess about our Round 1 draft bolter selection and justifiably lose my mind. But this year though I have a total different feel to it. Now there will be two first round bolters.
caesar88
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- Apr 26, 2016
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I might be losing it so someone please correct me if I'm thinking of the wrong person, but was Elijah Hewett not the guy who got a bit of a scoulding from recruiters for kneeing Sheldrick in the ribs when he was down in a juniors match?
- Oct 17, 2016
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2022 NAB League Boys
Watch full-match replays of every match from the 2022 NAB League, as 13 teams of next-generation talent from Victoria and Tasmania clash in this Under-19 competition.
AFL website seems to have replays of the NAB league without commentary. So I watched the round 5 Murray Bushrangers vs GWV match where Brayden George kicks 6.
He looks a good medium forward. He was taking marks above his head and on the lead. Also composed when the ball hit the ground.
Cautious about getting carried away with 1 Nab game. But I would not mind taking a long term gamble on him. Having a medium forward who can beat his man and get multiple shots on goal fits in with how we play. Our attack looked at its best when Heeney. Hayward and Papley were getting into space in the forward line.
Though I think the ACL would be a psychological challenge for a first year player. If he is moving to a new state and club knowing that he is going to be hanging around the rehab facilities for the season rather than being excited about training and playing with an AFL club.
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- Oct 17, 2016
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Also watched the WA v SA game to have a look at Ed Allan. He was playing on the wing and did not really get a chance to show off his speed and size.
His best moments were when he got the ball on the outside and had a few effective long flat kicks on the run that created chances.
He might be viewed by recruiters as more of a raw talent with really high upside.
His best moments were when he got the ball on the outside and had a few effective long flat kicks on the run that created chances.
He might be viewed by recruiters as more of a raw talent with really high upside.
Wolftone
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Not sure if it has been previously mentioned but Foxsports indicates Will Edwards is our only Academy nomination and that Indhi Kirk has been nominated as a potential F/S selection.
www.foxsports.com.au
PS I assume the above is correct but I notice Isaac Keeler is listed as an NGA nomination for Adelaide, however it has been reported the Crows have chosen not to do so as they anticipate he will be long gone by Pick 41 (which is the earliest the NGA players are available to their 'home' club).
Big edge for Vics as top prospects ‘can’t be picked’; why Pick 5 will swing AFL draft: Talking Pts
Big edge for Vics as top prospects ‘can’t be picked’; why Pick 5 will swing AFL draft: Talking Pts
www.foxsports.com.au
PS I assume the above is correct but I notice Isaac Keeler is listed as an NGA nomination for Adelaide, however it has been reported the Crows have chosen not to do so as they anticipate he will be long gone by Pick 41 (which is the earliest the NGA players are available to their 'home' club).
Dubai Quacker
Wily Old Campaigner
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If we’re true to form - the bolter we select this year at pick 17 will be Sam Gilbey.
Was considered one of WA’s top talents & likened to Jordan Dawson before he broke a leg and then copped a bout of glandular fever this year. Beautiful left foot & a rebounding defender.
And he’s a Claremont boy, which earns a big tick!
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- Oct 2, 2016
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Swans are interested in McDonald's younger brother, along with Eagles, GWS and Melbourne
- Nov 11, 2012
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West coast will grab him to try lure Logan back
Bonz
🤺🤺🤺
Honestly not too concerned about Logan leaving.
Not sure recruiting someone just to try and pach someone else is a good idea, they probably see something else in him.
Dubai Quacker
Wily Old Campaigner
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I have friends with kids at Aquinas & by all reports, Connor is one of the best kids you’ll ever come across.
If character & work ethic counts for anything, he’d be an asset to any team.
- Oct 2, 2016
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If we go tall with our first 2 selections I imagine we'll take him with our 3rd. The fact his friend Corey Warner and Brother are both at the Swans, plus his ability all make him sound like a good fit.
His Sydney connections and the value of that while should be considered should not be the only or primary reason for drafting him.
If we can’t keep a player because his brother plays somewhere else - then that’s a huge concern and says a lot about the organisation, culture and the ability of our player rentention and player support teams particularly.
If their is no one better than him for a rookie role than he could be considered
But to give someone a spot simply because they happen to be the brother of someone else sounds a lot like nepotism to me.
If we can’t keep a player because his brother plays somewhere else - then that’s a huge concern and says a lot about the organisation, culture and the ability of our player rentention and player support teams particularly.
If their is no one better than him for a rookie role than he could be considered
But to give someone a spot simply because they happen to be the brother of someone else sounds a lot like nepotism to me.
We got rid of 8 players
Aaron came in so now it’s 7 spots to fill (ideally)
We have 4 picks in ND but only expected to take 3
Who many rookie, Cat B and Mid reason picks do we have ?
I would suggest we have 2 rookie pics
1 cat B
And keep a spot for mid season draft
I really hope we use a cat B or rookie for Bradtke
Aaron came in so now it’s 7 spots to fill (ideally)
We have 4 picks in ND but only expected to take 3
Who many rookie, Cat B and Mid reason picks do we have ?
I would suggest we have 2 rookie pics
1 cat B
And keep a spot for mid season draft
I really hope we use a cat B or rookie for Bradtke
Maximumlnsanity
All Australian
2022 NAB League Boys
Watch full-match replays of every match from the 2022 NAB League, as 13 teams of next-generation talent from Victoria and Tasmania clash in this Under-19 competition.www.afl.com.au
AFL website seems to have replays of the NAB league without commentary. So I watched the round 5 Murray Bushrangers vs GWV match where Brayden George kicks 6.
He looks a good medium forward. He was taking marks above his head and on the lead. Also composed when the ball hit the ground.
Cautious about getting carried away with 1 Nab game. But I would not mind taking a long term gamble on him. Having a medium forward who can beat his man and get multiple shots on goal fits in with how we play. Our attack looked at its best when Heeney. Hayward and Papley were getting into space in the forward line.
Though I think the ACL would be a psychological challenge for a first year player. If he is moving to a new state and club knowing that he is going to be hanging around the rehab facilities for the season rather than being excited about training and playing with an AFL club.
Yes, more people on the Brayden George bandwagon!
Maximumlnsanity
All Australian
That's not how it works anymore, you just upgrade them without using picks
We've been running at max list size, we might decide not to for $$ reasons. According to our contracts page, we have 4 senior spots left (one of which I think has to be taken by McLean as an upgrade) and 2 rookie spots (1 Cat A, 1 Cat B). Maybe that becomes 2 once McLean is upgraded. I'm not sure of any Cat B rookies we have our eye on, but I think we are able to take Edwards at least as Cat B (like we did with Sheather). Bradtke I'm not sure of because while he's from NSW, and played a little VFL for us, I don't think he's in the academy. Although maybe we can just select him because he's from NSW, it's not clear.
So if we assume we can pick up one of those guys with the Cat B, Edwards more likely (he's definitely eligible):
3 x National Draft
1 or 2 x Cat A Rookie
If we aren't sold on someone for that Cat A, or 2nd Cat A (if we have one), in the rookie draft, I'd be fine with waiting for the SSP, can see how our list is going injury wise over summer, get a bit more time to see how some players are recovering from injury (that didn't get drafted because of it) etc.
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It's still indicative of how many spots you have though, you can't use the pick AND upgrade a player.
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