Vic The joke that is the Victorian Liberal Party.

[Jascave]

We know the number of seats the Liberals need to win the election in Victoria (18), but what sort of swing would be required for a change of government in 2026?

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Victorian Liberals perform better political when led by someone from a middle/upper class background. In the last six state elections won by the Liberal Party, they were led by MPs from the inner East.

And in the state elections where they have lost, where have their leaders come from?

 

[Bombermania]

And in the state elections where they have lost, where have their leaders come from?

Jeff - Burwood
Napthine - South West Coast
Thompson - Malvern
Doyle - Malvern
Guy - Bulleen
Baillieu - Hawthorn

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Jeff - Burwood
Napthine - South West Coast
Thompson - Malvern
Doyle - Malvern
Guy - Bulleen
Baillieu - Hawthorn

So plenty of losses from leaders in the inner east too.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

She's already leading preferred Premier. Battin managed the same against Allan, but otherwise it would just about be unprecedented for a LotO.

If the weirdo's in the party can either shut-up for a year, or swan-off to One Nation, then all the precursors are there for them to win. The Vic ALP campaign machine is formidable once it spins up, but I think they have a much harder time demonising her than Battin.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

She's already leading preferred Premier. Battin managed the same against Allan, but otherwise it would just about be unprecedented for a LotO.

If the weirdo's in the party can either shut-up for a year, or swan-off to One Nation, then all the precursors are there for them to win. The Vic ALP campaign machine is formidable once it spins up, but I think they have a much harder time demonising her than Battin.

Which is a bit ridiculous seeing as she's been there 5 minutes, has not detailed a concrete plan to win over voters nor who she is personally and what she believes in. The drumming up of crime as some sort of apocalypse by the media has alot to do with it. "The anybody is better than Jacinta" sentiment which is prevalent from the electorate as well. 12 months is a long time and there's alot that will be happening between now and than, major projects opening like MRRT and hospitals etc. It will also be enough time for the new crime laws to start to take effect too if they follow through with it legislatively in the courts.

 

[The Punter]

We know the number of seats the Liberals need to win the election in Victoria (18), but what sort of swing would be required for a change of government in 2026?

BTW, it's 16. Coalition currently on 29, need to get to 45.

 

[Saint]

Which is a bit ridiculous seeing as she's been there 5 minutes, has not detailed a concrete plan to win over voters nor who she is personally and what she believes in. The drumming up of crime as some sort of apocalypse by the media has alot to do with it. "The anybody is better than Jacinta" sentiment which is prevalent from the electorate as well. 12 months is a long time and there's alot that will be happening between now and than, major projects opening like MRRT and hospitals etc. It will also be enough time for the new crime laws to start to take effect too if they follow through with it legislatively in the courts.

We've had 12 years of Labor (by the election) and they barely bother to explain themselves any more or show any long term plan other than some shiny new infrastructure. Seems like they're out of good ideas and just spend all their time trying to balance a budget that they continually downgrade.

Will the completed infrastructure projects get them over the line, or will their hubris and free spending catch up with them?

The wildcard is if the Liberals can come up with any policies to win the election. Playing not to lose doesn't work as well in Victoria, but it depends how badly the ALP are doing. I don't think Law and Order will do it. And if they say they'll improve the budget, they're going to have to say how.

If the budget early in 2026 shows a better financial position than 2025 projections, that'll take a lot of the wind out of the Liberal sails.

 

[Sttew]

Which is a bit ridiculous seeing as she's been there 5 minutes, has not detailed a concrete plan to win over voters nor who she is personally and what she believes in.

Reflects the fact Victorians are desperate for an alternative and that Jacinta is massively on the nose.

What exactly is Jacinta's plan? She boasts that her record on the economy is the best in the nation. Who believes that? Seriously. She claims a Jess Wilson government will just be all about cuts. How is Jacinta proposing to deal with the state's record debt? By accessing super funds? Taxing the home?

 

[Demonic Ascent]

And if they say they'll improve the budget, they're going to have to say how.

By cutting property taxes apparently.

Jess Wilson is 35 and she's making the most of it in her pitch for premier

First-term MP and new opposition leader Jess Wilson is making a pitch specifically at young Victorians ahead of next year's state election, promising to remove barriers to home ownership.

www.abc.net.au

"We're going to have a look at all the taxes that sit on property, and think, where can we pull levers with a single goal of 'how do we make homes more affordable', particularly to first home buyers and younger Victorians," she said.

Without having any details, I wonder how that will impact property investors. If it's across the board I struggle to see how it will do anything to make home ownership more affordable for owner/occupiers.

 

[Ice-Wolf]

Seven and Nine are going to kill her with overexposure.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Reflects the fact Victorians are desperate for an alternative and that Jacinta is massively on the nose.

What exactly is Jacinta's plan? She boasts that her record on the economy is the best in the nation. Who believes that? Seriously. She claims a Jess Wilson government will just be all about cuts. How is Jacinta proposing to deal with the state's record debt? By accessing super funds? Taxing the home?

Thats not what I'm asking though is it, the job of the opposition is to come up with viable policies of their own if they want to win the election and they had 12 years to do it. Labor has its faults not denying that but I fail to see how somebody who's been in the job a week is the better option when you don't really know what she stands for yet. That's a recipe for disaster.

 

[Sttew]

Thats not what I'm asking though is it, the job of the opposition is to come up with viable policies of their own if they want to win the election and they had 12 years to do it. Labor has its faults not denying that but I fail to see how somebody who's been in the job a week is the better option when you don't really know what she stands for yet. That's a recipe for disaster.

Wilson has made clear some of her policy positions - tackling the debt; pausing SRL, removing 5 taxes. Give her a chance to develop the policies.

And remember, Oppositions rarely get voted in; Governments get ousted. As long as Wilson articulates a plan, which she will do, and as long as she keeps pressure on the government (and not just focus on crime, like Batten did), she will be a chance. The fact that the government is fiercely attacking Wilson tells me they are worried.

As for the last comment, "I fail to see how somebody who's been in the job a week is the better option when you don't really know what she stands for yet", its a bit rich to say she's been in a week and should have announced all her policies by now.

Labor is a tired government that has run out of ideas and money. Jacinta Allan is now a reactionary leader, but the problem is she is waiting too long or really doing nothing, e.g., her stance on crime and her stance in relation to the CFMEU and corruption within Big Build projects. QLD has a Royal Commission into the CFMEU. Everyone will tell you the CFMEU is at its most corrupt in Victoria yet Jacinta refuses to have a Royal Commission and the corruption continues.

 

[Saint]

Wilson has made clear some of her policy positions - tackling the debt; pausing SRL, removing 5 taxes. Give her a chance to develop the policies.

And remember, Oppositions rarely get voted in; Governments get ousted. As long as Wilson articulates a plan, which she will do, and as long as she keeps pressure on the government (and not just focus on crime, like Batten did), she will be a chance. The fact that the government is fiercely attacking Wilson tells me they are worried.

As for the last comment, "I fail to see how somebody who's been in the job a week is the better option when you don't really know what she stands for yet", its a bit rich to say she's been in a week and should have announced all her policies by now.

Labor is a tired government that has run out of ideas and money. Jacinta Allan is now a reactionary leader, but the problem is she is waiting too long or really doing nothing, e.g., her stance on crime and her stance in relation to the CFMEU and corruption within Big Build projects. QLD has a Royal Commission into the CFMEU. Everyone will tell you the CFMEU is at its most corrupt in Victoria yet Jacinta refuses to have a Royal Commission and the corruption continues.

The problem for Wilson is that when the campaigns begin, it will be around 6 months after WGTP and Metro Tunnel have opened.

So, far from the current doom and gloom, there will be shiny new stations and traffic eased across the Western suburbs (and worse in the CBD). If Metro opens well, cutting another PT project (even though it's not a PT project) and saying she'll cut taxes while also balancing the budget will mean she'll probably need to do more than just hope the ALP is tracking as badly as it is right now.

I agree they won't release policies until mid next year, why would they? But she'll want to have established some credibility and profile by then.

 

[Pakenhamsaint]

pausing SRL

Basically can't happen now. The TBMs will be in the ground digging by November.

 

[Sttew]

Basically can't happen now. The TBMs will be in the ground digging by November.

Yes she can. Wilson's argument is that she will pause everything to do with SRL until she has a firm handle on our financial commitments, contract details etc. Arguably a prudent thing to say and do given that if she becomes Premier she will have zero current critical information about SRL.

Even the Victorian Auditor General's Office has come out today criticising the government for its lack of financial transparency in respect to debt accumulation.

All the government has to do is be honest with us and tell us how much it will cost. It is after all the biggest infrastructure project in Victoria's history and one of the biggest in Australia. Yet all we are told is Stage 1 will cost about $34.5B, a figure from 2021...

What happens, if for example, the true cost of Stage 1 is really $50B, $60B or even $70B?

 

[Theseventhhamster]

Whatever happens, they'll build the first section. South East always gets the shiny stuff.

 

[Pakenhamsaint]

Yes she can.

Of course she can. Just she will end up costing taxpayers more money than needed if she does. Paying contractors to sit around not doing anything is not a wise usage of money.

All the government has to do is be honest with us and tell us how much it will cost. It is after all the biggest infrastructure project in Victoria's history and one of the biggest in Australia. Yet all we are told is Stage 1 will cost about $34.5B, a figure from 2021...

What happens, if for example, the true cost of Stage 1 is really $50B, $60B or even $70B?

No one will know what it really costs. It will like every other construction project on planet earth have cost overruns.

 

[Sttew]

Of course she can. Just she will end up costing taxpayers more money than needed if she does. Paying contractors to sit around not doing anything is not a wise usage of money.


No one will know what it really costs. It will like every other construction project on planet earth have cost overruns.

This is the thing I don't get and why I despise this government who have become masters of treating us like mushrooms.

No one knows what it really costs? A good start would be to tell us what the revised cost is 12 months out from an election, wouldn't you think? Another good thing would be to give us a proper business plan, one that stacks up in the eyes of the experts like Infrastructure Australia.

Any contractor about to sign deals with this government must have rocks in their heads given we really have no idea how the project will be funded.

Is it any wonder Jacinta Allan is now sowing the seeds to gain access to Super funds.

Jacinta Allan wants to tap super for next wave of government projects

The Victorian premier says the $4.3 trillion superannuation sector is based on workers’ money, and they should get the benefits of more schools and hospitals.

www.afr.com

 

[Pakenhamsaint]

No one knows what it really costs? A good start would be to tell us what the revised cost is 12 months out from an election, wouldn't you think? Another good thing would be to give us a proper business plan, one that stacks up in the eyes of the experts like Infrastructure Australia.

All it will be is a boring estimate that you'll no doubt crack the shits over and then when it runs over budget you'll crack the shits over that.

Labor could have the cure to cancer and you'd find something to complain about.

The reality is you've got blind hatred for labor and it clouds your thinking.

Any contractor about to sign deals with this government must have rocks in their heads given we really have no idea how the project will be funded.

Contractors will know a lot more than you and I. They would have information that's commercial in confidence.

 

[Sphynx]

Teal aligned moderate LNP leader.

This will be the blueprint the LNP will follow at federal level once they see it crush the ALP in Victoria.

 

[Ice-Wolf]

Teal aligned moderate LNP leader.

lol she aligned with the nutters to get the top job.

 

[The Punter]

Just she will end up costing taxpayers more money than needed if she does.

Like replacing the AWU in civil construction in Victoria with the CFMEU.

 

[Pakenhamsaint]

Like replacing the AWU in civil construction in Victoria with the CFMEU.

Will it? Or will it end up costing more because theyre less skilled?

Looks good on paper vs reality. Should get of the office once in a while

 

[The Punter]

Will it? Or will it end up costing more because theyre less skilled?

Looks good on paper vs reality. Should get of the office once in a while

If there is an issue with AWU quality work, perhaps one could take that up with the numerous ALP MPs who are AWU or the other ALP state governments who continue to have no issue with their work.

I'll try to get of the office.