The war against renewable energy

[nut]

Oh look, more evidence batteries are destroying gas…

 

[nut]

The largest costs to wholesale prices occur when the gas turbines are turned on. This dictates the price and sets what the retailers can charge.
Because of batteries the wholes price is dropping and retailers are making killing.
Retailers will have to lower prices soon.

 

[nut]

Over 138,000 home batteries have been installed since July 1.
The average size of a battery is about 18KWH … that’s 2.484 GWH.
At a cost to the government of about $930million so far.
The $2.3 billion fund will be exhausted in 6months.
This will have an enormous effect on the grid.
The success of this program and the benefits will surely see it continued.
Home batteries will help bring down the wholesale prices.
It’s a win win win.

By the time this program is finished Australia will have close to 4.5 million homes with solar and a half a million home batteries. Amazing.

 

[nut]

Home batteries are helping stabilise grid and stabilise prices….

Who would have thought storage is the key….

Households on track to add five "biggest batteries" in six months, as rebate installs rocket towards 175,000

Federal Labor's Cheaper Home Batteries rebate is expected to have received a whopping 175,000 applications by the end of 2025.

reneweconomy.com.au

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Oh look, more evidence batteries are destroying gas…


View attachment 2489463

More to do with the availability/price of gas .

If you look at a day's use on AEMO.

https://www.aemo.com.au/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/data-nem/data-dashboard-nem

Select the last 24 hours perior.

Shows yesterday. ( which was kind of good weather for both solar and wind here in Victoria ).
From 5PM to 6PM (solar starting to reduce).1% battery , 2% gas, 5% Hydro , 22% Solar, 18%WInd , 52% Coal

From 6PM to 7PM 9% battery. 1% Gas , 10% Hydro, 5% Solar, 14% wind, 58% coal.
So they are avoiding gas which in favour of battery, and hydro, fast response, but also chasing demand with coal .

From 7PM to 8PM 10% battery, 4% gas, 12% Hydro, 0% Solar, 15% Wind, 60% coal.

From 8PM to 9PM 5% battery, 4% gas, 13% Hydro, 0% Solar, 16% Wind, 62% coal.

From 9PM to 10PM. 2% battery, 4% gas, 12% Hydro , 0% Solar, 17% Wind, 65% coal.

They are chasing demand with the slow reacting coal stations, because gas right now is too expensive . It would be far better for the environment, and easier to manage if they used gas instead of that coal.

Don't forget when batteries are charged, its normally from the grid , so even at peak solar times, the grid has around 50% coal generated electricity.

 

[nut]

More to do with the availability/price of gas .

If you look at a day's use on AEMO.

https://www.aemo.com.au/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/data-nem/data-dashboard-nem

Select the last 24 hours perior.

Shows yesterday. ( which was kind of good weather for both solar and wind here in Victoria ).
From 5PM to 6PM (solar starting to reduce).1% battery , 2% gas, 5% Hydro , 22% Solar, 18%WInd , 52% Coal

From 6PM to 7PM 9% battery. 1% Gas , 10% Hydro, 5% Solar, 14% wind, 58% coal.
So they are avoiding gas which in favour of battery, and hydro, fast response, but also chasing demand with coal .

From 7PM to 8PM 10% battery, 4% gas, 12% Hydro, 0% Solar, 15% Wind, 60% coal.

From 8PM to 9PM 5% battery, 4% gas, 13% Hydro, 0% Solar, 16% Wind, 62% coal.

From 9PM to 10PM. 2% battery, 4% gas, 12% Hydro , 0% Solar, 17% Wind, 65% coal.

They are chasing demand with the slow reacting coal stations, because gas right now is too expensive . It would be far better for the environment, and easier to manage if they used gas instead of that coal.

Don't forget when batteries are charged, its normally from the grid , so even at peak solar times, the grid has around 50% coal generated electricity.

Yep… batteries will force gas prices down.
Gas currently sets the price. More Batteries less gas is bringing wholesale prices down.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Yep… batteries will force gas prices down.
Gas currently sets the price. More Batteries less gas is bringing wholesale prices down.

You invest megabucks in a huge battery installation.

Your business plan is to charge it for as little as you can, gluts in solar are perfect.
You aim to discharge whatever is in it , at times when you can maximize your price.
You have to come in cheaper than gas , and quicker than coal, otherwise you don't have a chance.

 

[nut]

You invest megabucks in a huge battery installation.

Your business plan is to charge it for as little as you can, gluts in solar are perfect.
You aim to discharge whatever is in it , at times when you can maximize your price.
You have to come in cheaper than gas , and quicker than coal, otherwise you don't have a chance.

It’s going to be interesting to see what happens this evening.
First true prolonged spike period I’ve seen forecast for 5 months.

Edit - it’s already gone.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

It’s going to be interesting to see what happens this evening.
First true prolonged spike period I’ve seen forecast for 5 months.

Edit - it’s already gone.

Low Solar day = low battery in the evening.

We need to get people to invest in solar panels that won' t pay them back. The glut needs to be huge to work on overcast days.

 

[nut]

Low Solar day = low battery in the evening.

We need to get people to invest in solar panels that won' t pay them back. The glut needs to be huge to work on overcast days.

For residential properties, solar panels will always “pay them back” … add a battery and they payback period decreases further.

By the way the spike never happened and I assume that’s because of batteries.

 

[PiCkLeJuiCe]

…. Again it doesn’t take much research to find good quality Solar panels without those ridiculous conditions you mentioned… Also there is a thing called consumer rights in this country.
Most panels above a certain pitch are considered self cleaning.

Those ridiculous conditions I listed are LONGi panels.

 

[nut]

Those ridiculous conditions I listed are LONGi panels.

Of course performance warranties are dependant on how clean the panels are. Do you expect them to work efficiently with moss on them?
Once they are cleaned then the performance can be tested.

Structural integrity of panels is what sets panels apart. LONGi is one panel that have long lasting panels backed by warranty.

 

[PiCkLeJuiCe]

The largest costs to wholesale prices occur when the gas turbines are turned on. This dictates the price and sets what the retailers can charge.
Because of batteries the wholes price is dropping and retailers are making killing.
Retailers will have to lower prices soon.

AEMO predict prices will fall by 5% through to 2030 with more renewables. Then prices are predicted to rise by 13% as coal plants are decommissioned and renewables fail to satisfy demand.

 

[nut]

AEMO predict prices will fall by 5% through to 2030 with more renewables. Then prices are predicted to rise by 13% as coal plants are decommissioned and renewables fail to satisfy demand.

And there was always going to be a cost transitioning.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Most people will never have the opportunity to disconnect from the grid.
So "if" usage prices do plummet , connection fees ( the entire suite of network charges ) will continue to rise. They won't lose.

 

[PiCkLeJuiCe]

Most people will never have the opportunity to disconnect from the grid.
So "if" usage prices do plummet , connection fees ( the entire suite of network charges ) will continue to rise. They won't lose.

Predicted higher demand, insufficient supply will see power prices will only increase and increase further as they build new transmission lines. We're electrifying everything plus encouraging data centre investment which are predicted to need 12-15% of our future electricity (they use 2-5% now).

 

[Sphynx]

The real interesting era of renewables, particularly solar and everyone’s push towards batteries is about to begin and it’s likely knock on effect to inflation.

Particularly in this country.

It’s about to fuel plenty of face level inflation over the next decade.

Insurance premiums, shipping (and as such, virtually everything at the counter), retail rents, medium rise domestic rents etc

We are right at the bottom of the mountain in this regard with legislation pushing to keep up and some of these costs on at their very infancy of being passed through.


It will be very interesting how batteries and battery storage is viewed in 10-15 years from now.

EPS, PE Core Cladding, Silica, Asbestos… is this decade/s catastrophic issue Lithium?

 

[PiCkLeJuiCe]

The real interesting era of renewables, particularly solar and everyone’s push towards batteries is about to begin and it’s likely knock on effect to inflation.

Particularly in this country.

It’s about to fuel plenty of face level inflation over the next decade.

Insurance premiums, shipping (and as such, virtually everything at the counter), retail rents, medium rise domestic rents etc

We are right at the bottom of the mountain in this regard with legislation pushing to keep up and some of these costs on at their very infancy of being passed through.


It will be very interesting how batteries and battery storage is viewed in 10-15 years from now.

EPS, PE Core Cladding, Silica, Asbestos… is this decade/s catastrophic issue Lithium?

There is a potential of inferior products being sourced and fly-by-night installers popping up. It's more a pink batts problem than a silica / asbestos one. We might see a few houses burn down.

 

[Sydney Kicker]

The real interesting era of renewables, particularly solar and everyone’s push towards batteries is about to begin and it’s likely knock on effect to inflation.

Particularly in this country.

It’s about to fuel plenty of face level inflation over the next decade.

Insurance premiums, shipping (and as such, virtually everything at the counter), retail rents, medium rise domestic rents etc

We are right at the bottom of the mountain in this regard with legislation pushing to keep up and some of these costs on at their very infancy of being passed through.


It will be very interesting how batteries and battery storage is viewed in 10-15 years from now.

EPS, PE Core Cladding, Silica, Asbestos… is this decade/s catastrophic issue Lithium?

Your argument is flawed

Why will renewables impact inflation any more than fossil fuels will?

Two points:
1. Cost of production for renewables v fossil fuel has already tipped in favour of renewables https://www.irena.org/News/pressrel...ts-Now-Cheaper-Than-Fossil-Fuels-Alternatives

2. Over the last half a century, automotive fuel has been a major driver of inflation in Australia.

Automotive fuel in the CPI

Automotive fuel series in the CPI and important events affecting fuel prices and inflation

www.abs.gov.au

To me the evidence suggests transitioning to renewables will reduce the rate of inflation.

Battery safety is a completely different (and legitimate) concern, however global warming has a far more catastrophic global impact than a few insulation fires and mesothelioma.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

There is a potential of inferior products being sourced and fly-by-night installers popping up. It's more a pink batts problem than a silica / asbestos one. We might see a few houses burn down.

Pink Batts was a total failure of Authorities to enforce existing building codes and workplace health and safety. ( which they happily threw back at Peter Garratt ).
I agree with your analogy , but we may also need some new standards that are specific to safe installation of certain types of batteries.
Whether insurance charge more, its totally up to them. I wonder if they charge more for people who store petrol.
I'd say it depends how many home fires actually are caused , or exacerbated by the batteries in future.

 

[PiCkLeJuiCe]

Your argument is flawed

Why will renewables impact inflation any more than fossil fuels will?

Two points:
1. Cost of production for renewables v fossil fuel has already tipped in favour of renewables https://www.irena.org/News/pressrel...ts-Now-Cheaper-Than-Fossil-Fuels-Alternatives

2. Over the last half a century, automotive fuel has been a major driver of inflation in Australia.

Automotive fuel in the CPI

Automotive fuel series in the CPI and important events affecting fuel prices and inflation

www.abs.gov.au

View attachment 2494043

To me the evidence suggests transitioning to renewables will reduce the rate of inflation.

Battery safety is a completely different (and legitimate) concern, however global warming has a far more catastrophic global impact than a few insulation fires and mesothelioma.

Your logic might be a little flawed too. You can't just consider cost of production. Electricity isn't consumed where it's produced. You have to factor in cost of transmission - notice how the ALP don't talk about the escalating costs of required transmission lines needed to achieve net zero. Then, with renewables, you must have storage. Snowy 2 is already a $20b plus project. Batteries cost about $75,000-$120,000/MWh for utility sized storage.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Your argument is flawed

Why will renewables impact inflation any more than fossil fuels will?

Two points:
1. Cost of production for renewables v fossil fuel has already tipped in favour of renewables https://www.irena.org/News/pressrel...ts-Now-Cheaper-Than-Fossil-Fuels-Alternatives

2. Over the last half a century, automotive fuel has been a major driver of inflation in Australia.

Automotive fuel in the CPI

Automotive fuel series in the CPI and important events affecting fuel prices and inflation

www.abs.gov.au

View attachment 2494043

To me the evidence suggests transitioning to renewables will reduce the rate of inflation.

Battery safety is a completely different (and legitimate) concern, however global warming has a far more catastrophic global impact than a few insulation fires and mesothelioma.

OK So its a report by IRINA , an organization who promote renewables, so hardly impartial.

Cost relies a lot on initial capital, and the useful life, and i could only see very broad assumptions in their report ( bloody hell its a fat report though, will take a while to take more of it in. ).
Return on investment is a huge part of the equation.
For example, wind power will be more likely to provide electricity at times when there is not a glut of solar, ( so they can charge more ) .

 

[Sydney Kicker]

Your logic might be a little flawed too. You can't just consider cost of production. Electricity isn't consumed where it's produced. You have to factor in cost of transmission - notice how the ALP don't talk about the escalating costs of required transmission lines needed to achieve net zero. Then, with renewables, you must have storage. Snowy 2 is already a $20b plus project. Batteries cost about $75,000-$120,000/MWh for utility sized storage.

Factoring in costs beyond production torpedoes your own argument.

Oil and coal aren't consumed where they are produced. How about the cost of shipping a tanker load of crude to Australia from the Middle East plus refining it and storing it until use and then transporting it to the petrol station? Meanwhile my solar panels have to shift most of the electricity our household consumes from the roof to our appliances and in the future our electric car. I wonder what costs more per unit?

Reputable sources all say the same thing - renewables will get cheaper and cheaper to produce and deliver as production scales up and infrastructure is built - leaving oil and coal in the dust. Even with an unfair comparison that doesn't count the past cost of building power stations, oil rigs and supertankers, renewables will easily come out on top in the long run.

Fossil fuel producers should be thankful they still own the politicians. If we brought Environmental Economic Accounting into the System of National Accounts (i.e placing a cost on environmental degradation/depletion) the cost argument for fossil fuel would be even worse than it is now.

 

[PiCkLeJuiCe]

Factoring in costs beyond production torpedoes your own argument.

Oil and coal aren't consumed where they are produced. How about the cost of shipping a tanker load of crude to Australia from the Middle East plus refining it and storing it until use and then transporting it to the petrol station? Meanwhile my solar panels have to shift most of the electricity our household consumes from the roof to our appliances and in the future our electric car. I wonder what costs more per unit?

Reputable sources all say the same thing - renewables will get cheaper and cheaper to produce and deliver as production scales up and infrastructure is built - leaving oil and coal in the dust. Even with an unfair comparison that doesn't count the past cost of building power stations, oil rigs and supertankers, renewables will easily come out on top in the long run.

Fossil fuel producers should be thankful they still own the politicians. If we brought Environmental Economic Accounting into the System of National Accounts (i.e placing a cost on environmental degradation/depletion) the cost argument for fossil fuel would be even worse than it is now.

Your solar panels are the most expensive way to generate electricity. Scale up the price you paid for your panels to the 25,000 MWh currently in demand.

 

[Sydney Kicker]

Your solar panels are the most expensive way to generate electricity. Scale up the price you paid for your panels to the 25,000 MWh currently in demand.

Your comment bears little relevance to the previous posts which were all about the cost of transporting energy. I don't even understand what you're saying in the second sentence. And how the hell would you know enough about me and my solar panels to claim they are "the most expensive". Given I know my usage and my install costs and the price I pay for electricity from the grid, I'm pretty sure my rooftop solar will easily pay for itself by the time I have to replace it.