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  1. Dylan82

    Play Nice Australia Day messages from Clubs

    People tie themselves in knots over this issue when it could be addressed relatively easily. Create a national public holiday 'Federation Day' on Jan 1 (in addition to the existing New Year's Day holiday). Retain the national holiday on Jan 26 but re-brand it as 'Landing Day', 'Fleet Day'...
  2. Dylan82

    Play Nice Australia Day messages from Clubs

    West Coast absent again thus far. Disappointing after the embarrassment of being the only club not to act for AFLW Pride Week. Dropping the ball off the field as well as onfield of late.
  3. Dylan82

    Analysis Rolling All-Australian team for 2021

    Fair point, the current minimum was originally applied for club selection and hasn't been revisited since expanding across all. Will up the minimum requirement on the All Competition and State of Origin squads.
  4. Dylan82

    Analysis Rolling All-Australian team for 2021

    Good pick-up - lowered the threshold ratio on the overall Best 22 squad for positioning (ie even though Macrae should have been positioned in the squad as an outside mid, his superior rating as an inside mid by more than 25% was keeping him on the interchange rather than above Duncan on the...
  5. Dylan82

    Analysis Rolling All-Australian team for 2021

    Agreed, it's a reflection on the current low standard of non-key forwards we currently have across the competition. The closest I have with those squads is 23 & Under, as could be expected Rising Stars are unlikely to make an appearance. At some point I will probably add a Rising Star entry to...
  6. Dylan82

    Analysis Rolling All-Australian team for 2021

    Thanks. Bontempelli currently comes in on half forward in all competition as Petracca, Parish and Oliver currently outrank him as inside mids, but he is leading all players in the midfield forward category. In the line-up for Bulldogs alone, he appears as an inside mid. Dale and Daniel are...
  7. Dylan82

    Analysis Rolling All-Australian team for 2021

    System works based on the following (from previous posted over on Eagles board): As for Lever, he only just misses out here - as you can see he is currently included in the second team.
  8. Dylan82

    Analysis Rolling All-Australian team for 2021

    FYI current rolling Best 22 coming into Round 22, under ratings system of own making. Best 22 Squads
  9. Dylan82

    Analysis A metric for Midfield Impact Factor

    Nicely done. Definitely is identifying those who are having the most impact upon the competition. FYI - over on the West Coast pages there are a couple of threads in a similar vein that have been going on for a while. Assessing the Midfield - "Basic" ranking that only utilises just three...
  10. Dylan82

    VFL/East Coast Competition Updates

    Confirmed. https://www.afl.com.au/news/544933/vfl-season-details-three-states-22-clubs-april-start Does seem disingenuous to keep the name as the VFL with more than 25% of the teams playing coming from outside Victoria.
  11. Dylan82

    How is your team going to manage the next month

    Quite well from the look of it. No travel and no 4-5 day breaks. Makes me wonder what grief is coming for us in the next wave of fixturing.
  12. Dylan82

    Ultimate AFL Fixture Guide - Season 2016 Release

    The steak knives are scheduled for next year's version. ;)
  13. Dylan82

    Ultimate AFL Fixture Guide - Season 2016 Release

    The 2016 Season release is finally here! Better yet, due to the ongoing fire sale of the economy whilst our "honest" representatives fiddle playing pin the dildo on the ideological butt-pirate, I’ve had more time to put this year’s edition together whilst still getting paid – thanks guys...
  14. Dylan82

    2016 Ladder Predictions

    Recent form in this case for the model refers to the last six matches played. As can be expected, a major blowout result for or against could skew results markedly in a sample size of six - hence why it then gets output from a ratio compared to the last 22 matches played. There is currently no...
  15. Dylan82

    Winners and Losers of 2016 Fixture

    I don't believe that will affect your position on the ladder this coming season.
  16. Dylan82

    Winners and Losers of 2016 Fixture

    and points... lots of them.
  17. Dylan82

    Winners and Losers of 2016 Fixture

    No problem, understand you're not having a go at all - more a case of thinking aloud as it were and floating possible solutions. Agree "familiarity" or whatever term of reference is used (ie how often a team has played at a venue over a defined period of time) might be a way of getting some...
  18. Dylan82

    2016 Ladder Predictions

    Looking through the individual matches for Richmond it has 5 of those 10 losses by less than a goal which means it becomes terribly variable as soon as you tweak a few inputs. A slight change in the weighting towards recent rather than longer term form changes it to 14-8 and easily within the...
  19. Dylan82

    Winners and Losers of 2016 Fixture

    I agree there are other factors involved, but still maintain that travel is worth considering (maybe less than 1:1.5 as posted [it can be scaled to any figure on the sheet]) It was quiet at work today so was able to do some further refining on this - am currently adding factors for home crowd...
  20. Dylan82

    Winners and Losers of 2016 Fixture

    Second column list of red numbers is purely opposition strength rankings - ie stats without the travel factor involved. The sheet itself can be weighted between 0 & 100% for opposition strength and travel.
  21. Dylan82

    Winners and Losers of 2016 Fixture

    The result is completely independent of who I support, the same methods are applied against all. West Coast finished 2nd in 2015, they (as to be expected) have a tougher fixture in 2016.
  22. Dylan82

    Winners and Losers of 2016 Fixture

    I agree it is subjective and home ground (crowd) advantage is something I have been working on but is actually a lot more complex to scale without it making outputs completely unrealistic. I expect to have it sorted by this time next year. From what I've uncovered from the data, travel is as...
  23. Dylan82

    2016 Ladder Predictions

    To cut through a heap of statistical nerdery it basically works via scoring averages (Team 1 For + Team 2 Against etc) and then modulating them with a factor for a set of common available stats (disposals, In50s etc...), and then using that against opposition strength and travel weightings...
  24. Dylan82

    2016 Ladder Predictions

    Forecast model output extracted from the 2016 update to the ultimate fixture sheet: Some caveats regarding this output: Forecast is based on statistical probability so fails to predict "upsets" and thus skews towards top teams winning more games than actual end of season result, however...
  25. Dylan82

    Winners and Losers of 2016 Fixture

    Extracted from the 2016 update to the ultimate fixture sheet: Default weighting of 1.5:1.0 ratio for opposition strength verus travel distance. Opposition Strength weighted according to 2015 finishing position (1st +20%,... 18th -20%) Travel is weighted according to distance - for example...
  26. Dylan82

    18 teams are too many.

    Empower the state leagues into legitimate secondary divisions, then it no longer matters where teams are based from. At the end of the season, the bottom placed AFL gets relegated back into its representative state division. The premiers of each state league then play off in a knock-out...
  27. Dylan82

    Frees for and frees against

    One could make the observation that the majority of the time the player that gets to the ball first tends to get the benefit of the doubt and favour of the umpire. The thing that sets West Coast apart from others is the dominance of the ruck over the years through Gardiner, Cox and more...
  28. Dylan82

    Kangas started Cats dynasty, did they just end it?

    No. Cats had a brusing finals-type intensity match against the Hawks last week. North had a stroll in the park against GWS. Great to see that GWS is continuing to compromise the competition in ways we haven't even considered.
  29. Dylan82

    Karmichael Hunt

    In the last quarter he ran 100m to provide Ablett with a shepherd on Watson and then ran another 100m to get to the contest in the forward half. Considering players were looking spent all over the field, it's as good a case of gut-running as there was by anyone else during the game and it...
  30. Dylan82

    Why can some clubs develop players better than others?

    +1 One of the most effective ways to learn is to observe and emulate those who are already capable. A young player constantly in the presence of professionals with elite ability will see what it really takes to achieve that level of greatness and the amount of discipine and hard work that is...

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