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  1. PattyKwasagun

    Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) 2020

    Just to check this particular point, I think it's really important to note that almost every leading epidemiologist says that the only realistic path out of this pandemic is a vaccine. I have no idea where you're getting 5-8 years from - I have googled that and can't find anything - and the...
  2. PattyKwasagun

    Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) 2020

    I remember in January (when most of the vaccine teams started their work) all the experts were saying the best case scenario timeline for a vaccine is 12-18 months - we're now 7 months into that timeline, so nothing is being drastically rushed at all (except some of the reports in India and...
  3. PattyKwasagun

    Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) 2020

    Some really promising vaccine news in recent weeks. The Oxford candidate seems to be a world leader and is likely to have a final answer as to its safety and effectiveness within 5-6 weeks, the Flinders one if it comes off could have vaccines available widely across Australia by Christmas, and...
  4. PattyKwasagun

    Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) 2020

    I’m a big believer in the sentiment that cynicism always comes dressed as realism. I know your belief is that you have a realistic perspective on the situation and where we’re going, but it seems way out of step with every expert opinion & every nation’s approach.
  5. PattyKwasagun

    Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) 2020

    Sure, by initial training - but he's an immunologist (and quite a good one it is fair to say - not many end up with an immunology centre named after them). What about Ian Frazer's comments in that article? You can hardly discredit him when it comes to vaccines. I know there has been a great...
  6. PattyKwasagun

    Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) 2020

    Also, the current UQ vaccine effort has produced more antibodies than recovered patients even have in their blood - so immunity would be higher than it is for recovered patients, which is already looking very high. UQ COVID-19 vaccine shown to induce potent protective response in pre-clinical...
  7. PattyKwasagun

    Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) 2020

    Saucery & briztoon, have a look at this article from last weekend - it certainly seems to paint a different picture: One Shot To Change The World Few tweets from Peter Doherty on the matter too: And re: the comment about not having a vaccine against the common cold yet, this seems to be...
  8. PattyKwasagun

    Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) 2020

    Yep, I think that does seem likely - although the good news is that I think it's almost certain they will be epidemics rather than pandemics for the next fifty years or so at least. Would think that all countries will overreact at anything that even has a hint of this about it in future. For...
  9. PattyKwasagun

    Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) 2020

    I don't think that's their strategy though - while a number of the vaccine groups seem increasingly confident they'll have a vaccine and sounding more and more likely it will be before the end of 2020 too, I think the government still has to work on the assumption that one won't be found seeing...
  10. PattyKwasagun

    Opinion Brisbane Olympics

    It was reported that their current thinking is to, yes.
  11. PattyKwasagun

    Opinion Brisbane Olympics

    It was in the paper a few days ago and on the radio too. As a whisper though, so doesn't seem to be something they've written a full story about.
  12. PattyKwasagun

    Opinion Brisbane Olympics

    Few reports around this week that the state government is going to double down on the Olympics bid because of this pandemic. Supposedly they see it as a way to rebuild Queensland's economy over the next decade coming out of this - through more jobs, infrastructure, and funding from the federal...
  13. PattyKwasagun

    Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) 2020

    That's true, but there are also fewer than there were only a couple of days ago. I've been pretty doubtful of crowds returning before round 1 next year myself (how could it happen without a vaccine if the virus is still around?) - but when the deputy chief medical officer is saying we are 'on...
  14. PattyKwasagun

    Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) 2020

    Yep. Would probably have the added bonus of being great for our economy too. Although I imagine if NZ was in a similar situation, both us and them would probably open borders to each other - for the sake of tourism and airlines etc. But we'd both be shut off to the rest of the world until a...
  15. PattyKwasagun

    Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) 2020

    Super hopeful tone from the Deputy CMO today. Sounds like eradication could be on the cards again. We'll all know more in a few weeks, but if we're able to pull that off and the disease dies off in Australia (which would seem possible by late May/early June on those forecasts), we can resume...
  16. PattyKwasagun

    Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) 2020

    I can’t remember exactly, but I think he was just talking from an Australian context rather than a global one.
  17. PattyKwasagun

    Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) 2020

    One of the leaders of that project (also head of infectious diseases at the Mater) said on the ABC yesterday that the UQ vaccine will almost certainly be developed by the end of this year with full rollout across Australia by Feb/March next year. He also said that he thinks this will all mostly...
  18. PattyKwasagun

    Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) 2020

    Fascinating press conference right now. Morrison just essentially conceded that waiting for a vaccine is not an option. He said they've taken significant measures to prop up the economy in the short term (6 months max), and they can't consider any options that would require a longer wait and...
  19. PattyKwasagun

    Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) 2020

    Good news you would think is that cold & flu season will be very minimal this year around with everybody living very isolated lives.
  20. PattyKwasagun

    Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) 2020

    Speaking of South Korea, sport is re-starting there which is comforting - still without crowds, but a positive nonetheless.
  21. PattyKwasagun

    Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) 2020

    This is very encouraging too:
  22. PattyKwasagun

    Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) 2020

    I guess the hard thing is just the uncertainty. This thing could go in so many different directions. Let's say we lock down and have essentially eradicated the disease by June (unlikely with current measures but who knows) - then things will re-start (albeit not international travel) and jobs...
  23. PattyKwasagun

    Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) 2020

    I think the league and the 18 clubs will be fine for this season. Plenty of staff will go and the AFL will need a considerable loan, but we could see no football this year and still have all 18 clubs ready to go for the start of season 2021. If next year was still impacted by the virus or...
  24. PattyKwasagun

    Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) 2020

    I thought you were talking about Indooroopilly there and was very confused. But yes - and it isn't something the West can wash their hands of either. If this virus spreads rapidly in less developed countries without any prohibition, it could mutate into something worse that we won't be able to...
  25. PattyKwasagun

    Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) 2020

    I think that's probably pretty unlikely. I think stats still show that most burglaries happen during the day when people are at work, so with most of the country at home over the next period of time I think that's going to have a big impact. Especially when you consider how many neighbours will...
  26. PattyKwasagun

    Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) 2020

    That's a medical perspective, and it's very valid. But the point remains that - and it is shocking to say this - but it would be undeniably better for the economy long term to see a scenario where the health system is completely overrun and the fatalities are rising to heartbreaking numbers...
  27. PattyKwasagun

    Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) 2020

    Yep, that's true - although I wonder how attitudes may shift (in either direction) between now and then. Will the fear and trepidation last that long? Or will it just become a new normal that people slowly seem less shocked by? Not suggesting people will no longer care about their health or...
  28. PattyKwasagun

    Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) 2020

    As one of the people who has echoed a sentiment along these lines (although not in those words), just some clarification - I don't believe things will be 'normal' by June, however I do believe that they will be much more normal. I think we will have crowds at games, flights coming and going as...
  29. PattyKwasagun

    Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) 2020

    I think a really important point though is that this is all the protocol of the containment period - once it's widespread (assuming that happens), there won't be any reason to cancel flights/games etc. I expect that at most we'll see 3-4 rounds seriously impacted, but no more than that.
  30. PattyKwasagun

    Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) 2020

    I think it is relatively likely that a multi-week lockdown for larger metropolitan areas is on the cards, probably in mid-late April going off what the current information is suggesting. As much as it would maybe be the most effective option, I can't imagine that will happen at the same time...

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