This is going to sound like an old man whinge...but I am an old man, so forgive my whinge:
Triple J as a publicly funded broadcaster needs to be a little bit careful about what it is becoming. The top twenty yesterday sounds and reads like a Nova playlist, and I'm not convinced we need to spend...
First Class (in 2022) is the logical guide for Loving on Me. Loving on Me has been number one on the ARIA chart for most of the voting period - I'm assuming it's comfortably in the top ten.
For those of us keen to have a punt on this - I wanted to highlight the Warm Tuna results from last year. Below are his five songs that he tallied with the most votes, and in brackets are the actual results:
1. Gang of Youths (887 votes) - finished 9th
2. Ball Park Music (807 votes) - finished...
I'm interested in the thoughts of others regarding this head-to-head matchup - Kill Bill vs Not Strong Enough. NSE has drifted out to $2.85.
Full disclosure - I can't place bets into these markets, but I like keeping my eye on them.
I talked about this somewhere. He has changed his methodology with regards to data collection this year (which is why he has a larger sample size). I wondered if this change would be problematic. It's early days, but it's looking less accurate this year.
A couple of other possibilities for the "two massive records"
Hilltop Hoods to go past Powderfinger and the Foo Fighters (they would need both their songs to make the 100)
most Like a Versions ever
FYI
Warm Tunas has introduced a Machine Learning algorithm to his results and updated his list. There is also a very detailed article explaining how the ML algorithm works. If you're interested in this stuff it's definitely worth a read.
I agree with your Kendrick assessment. Top ten wouldn't surprise me, and $8 is good shopping.
I'm giving God is a Freak by Peach some hope of a top ten finish at odds. It was $4.50 but is a bit shorter now.
Tik Tok is not for me, but it's a Tik Tok song.
I requested No King Stingray in the top 20....so we are on the same wavelength there.
There's a few BYO markets up now. Nothing that gets me interested (not that they will let me bet regardless).
Updated - they have put this market up and I was surprised at the odds offered ($4.75). I think...
That's interesting. I haven't voted yet. I use WT to help me work out what I'm going to vote for (ie I'm old and don't get to listen to JJJ much during the year...so spend January catching up on what I've missed).
To be honest, I'm not sure. This is something he hasn't done before. It's possible it's more accurate, but I (for a sample size of one) just uploaded any old random instagram screenshot from someone else so I could see the WT details. I'm included in his results, and I know mine are false. I...
Note that head to head betting is now available, along with a range of other slightly more interesting markets. I've backed a few in head to heads that I thought were mis-priced, but I could easily be wrong.
I have less faith in warm tunas than previous years. I fear the change to the way he is...
I think there will me more than one LAV
Ocean Alley, Tame Impala and Something for Kate could all make it and not surprise me....even Tim Minchin wouldn't stun me
This holds up every year - Warm Tunas puts these songs too high
This year thus far WAAX, Nothing But Thieves, Northlane, and Royal Blood all around 100 spots lower than predicted.
Very quick rough count....if you include some of the decade events and what not I get The Wombats to 14
Not sure who else it could be - I have Kanye at 17 so he's out
Ball Park Music are at 12
Lorde is at 12 (if you count Disclosure)
Billie Eilish is at 13
Looks like Wombats, Lorde and Billie...
Doesn't work for me either....I assumed it's because my account is tagged with a big "do not accept bets from this account" flag
I like your $6 bet and agree it looks value. I think Wet Leg could surprise and do well but I expect the others will underperform.
Regarding the Like a Versions - I expect Ruel (It aint over til its over) to make the 100.
Warm Tunas has a history (a short history to be fair) of undercounting his vote:
2020 - As long as you care was 45 (predicted at 78)
2019 - Painkiller was 22 (predicted at 48)
2019 - Face to face was 38...
I take your point - the triple j audience has a history of kicking crossover artists to the kerb....but:
two of his main challengers this year are a Disney artist and a childrens band.....we live in unsual times :-)
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