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  1. mattsea

    News Swans Talk In The Media 2017 (footy talk only, please)

    thanks! (that's my site)
  2. mattsea

    Victorian AFL fans may not be aware of this but...

    Have a look at the first graph in this post https://thearcfooty.com/2016/08/28/matthew-pavlich-has-travelled-further-than-any-other-player-in-aflvfl-history/
  3. mattsea

    Opinion "Help me out where I need faith!" - The Statistical Data Thread

    1) A higher rating doesn't necessarily entail a prediction that a team will make it further in the finals. 2) If Adelaide makes it further in the finals than Geelong, I won't regard that as vindication of my ratings system, and if Geelong makes it further than Adelaide I won't regard that as a...
  4. mattsea

    Opinion "Help me out where I need faith!" - The Statistical Data Thread

    Not sure this take has held up super well
  5. mattsea

    Certified Legendary Thread Squiggle 2017

    Cheers! Yeah I plan to do a lot more work on this when I get the time. As you said, the results with just using Fantasy points are pretty encouraging. There are a lot of stats (eg. cont poss, goal assists) that are publicly available but not incorporated in Fantasy numbers; my next step is to...
  6. mattsea

    2017 Non Crows AFL Discussion Thread

    but... the projection also thinks Melbourne will make the 8 (53% chance)
  7. mattsea

    Putting Dusty's game in perspective

    The purpose was to compare Dustin Martin's R1 2017 game to every other game by an AFL player since 1990 and show that very, very few have had more disposals and more goals in a game. What would you omit from the chart to make the point more clearly?
  8. mattsea

    Putting Dusty's game in perspective

    But... the most did say it was an impressive game! It specifically said that!
  9. mattsea

    Mega Thread Port Forum 'General AFL Talk' Thread Part 3

    The reigning Premier has won their first match of the season 67.1% of the time in AFL/VFL history. If we just look at the AFL (1990-present), it's 66.7%; since 2000 it's 64.7%.
  10. mattsea

    Putting Dusty's game in perspective

    there's not a significant difference in the average disposals per game in R1 compared to later rounds
  11. mattsea

    Putting Dusty's game in perspective

    damn, that's me told
  12. mattsea

    Mega Thread Port Forum 'General AFL Talk' Thread Part 3

    yep, hope you like it!
  13. mattsea

    Mega Thread Port Forum 'General AFL Talk' Thread Part 3

    nah no worries, thanks for posting!
  14. mattsea

    Putting Dusty's game in perspective

    https://thearcfooty.com/2017/03/23/impressive-dustys-game/ https://thearcfooty.com/2017/03/23/impressive-dustys-game/
  15. mattsea

    Mega Thread Port Forum 'General AFL Talk' Thread Part 3

    thanks for sharing my stuff, I guess!
  16. mattsea

    History of AFL elo ratings

    The page explaining the Elo ratings has a whole bit about ASADA specifically and list changes more generally..
  17. mattsea

    Think Tank Norf - statistically the most boring, vanilla team of the AFL era.

    damn, that's me told. Might as well delete thearcfooty.com right now
  18. mattsea

    History of AFL elo ratings

    Yes. The ratings are explained here: https://thearcfooty.com/2016/12/29/introducing-the-arcs-ratings-system/ The key bit: DOES YOUR MODEL KNOW ABOUT ASADA? Nope! The Elo system is oblivious to changes in personnel. This means that if a key player gets injured, or returns to the side, this will...
  19. mattsea

    History of AFL elo ratings

    also: if I were just interested in the Eagles era I'd have started in 1987
  20. mattsea

    History of AFL elo ratings

    actually my Elo ratings start in 1897, but when I put them all on the one graph it's too hard to see anything interesting. Thanks for your constructive criticism!
  21. mattsea

    History of AFL elo ratings

    New post on this: https://thearcfooty.com/2017/01/28/the-best-and-worst-teams-of-the-afl-era/
  22. mattsea

    History of AFL elo ratings

    Before each game, we calculate an expected result, based on each team’s pre-game rating and the size of the home-ground advantage. After the game, teams’ ratings rise if they did better than expected and fall if they did worse. The average rating is 1500. Winning by bigger margins boosts Elo...
  23. mattsea

    History of AFL elo ratings

    thanks!
  24. mattsea

    History of AFL elo ratings

    Hope it's not out of order to spruik your own stuff, but I thought some people here might be interested in this: https://thearcfooty.com/2017/01/28/a-complete-history-of-the-afl/
  25. mattsea

    Who will finish higher - Adelaide, Geelong or West Coast?

    I'm running a comp to tip which teams will make the finals, some of you might be interested: https://thearcfooty.com/2017/01/21/projecting-finalists-challenge/
  26. mattsea

    2017 Ladder Predictions

    I'm running a comp to pick the 2017 finalists: https://thearcfooty.com/2017/01/21/projecting-finalists-challenge/ Enter! All you have to do is assign a probability (between 0-100) of each team making the finals
  27. mattsea

    2017 Elo rating predictions

    Anyone who finds my estimates of teams' probability of making the finals implausible should enter this competition! https://thearcfooty.com/2017/01/21/projecting-finalists-challenge/
  28. mattsea

    thearcfooty.com

    thearcfooty.com
    • mattsea
    • Profile post
  29. mattsea

    2017 Elo rating predictions

    Yep. There are a few challenging issues with this, such as: 1) How should we measure player quality? 2) What's the relationship between player quality and team quality? 3) How much should project player quality to improve or deterioriate between seasons (ie. how much worse will old players get...
  30. mattsea

    2017 Elo rating predictions

    Yes, I've read Tony's piece. My finals probability calculations do take into account all the components of schedule strength. I'm guessing that what you'd like is for me to explicitly disaggregate the components of schedule strength? In which case nah, I can't improve on Tony's.

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