History says this referendum will fail. The 'NO' side has the lead nationally and in the majority of states according to the latest Newspoll.
National = Yes 43, No 47, Undecided 10
NSW = Yes 46, No 41, Undecided 13
VIC = Yes 48, No 41, Undecided 11
QLD = Yes 40, No 54, Undecided 6
WA = Yes 39...
My early analysis based on the trends and data we've witnessed.
The Liberals went backwards in the middle class eastern suburbs, in electorates such as Ringwood, Box Hill, Glen Waverley and Ashwood. These were seats they were hoping to win but lost further ground in.
The Teals fail to...
Latest Newspoll published in The Australian this evening:
Labor = 37 (-4)
Coalition = 37 (+1)
Greens = 13 (0)
Other = 13 (+3)
Labor = 54 (-2)
Coalition = 46 (+2)
The poll was conducted from Monday to Thursday this week.
Daniel Andrews performance
51% satisfied. A fall of 3% since August...
I’m in Balwyn and this is a good analysis of the situation.
Ryan’s support was strongest in the Hawthorn area, which has more renters and is a younger population.
As a starting point, attempt to win back as many seats it won in 2014, but lost in 2018.
Bass
Bayswater
Box Hill
Burwood
Hawthorn
Morwell
Mount Waverley (split into new seats of Ashwood and Glen Waverley)
Nepean
Ringwood
South Barwon
Kooyong's demographics have changed significantly in the past decade or so.
There's 6,000 more women than men in the electorate.
Younger population is increasing.
Increased number of renters, particularly in the Hawthorn area which skewed heavily for Ryan.
Ryan performed best in the Hawthorn...
I assume it was similar at the 2022 Federal Election, but in 2019, 82% of Greens preferences flowed back to Labor.
In comparison, about 60% of One Nation votes flowed back to the Coalition from memory.
About time this was looked into.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/ombudsman-to-probe-alleged-politicisation-of-victoria-s-public-service-20220403-p5aai2.html
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