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  1. Wandering Hawk

    2016 Ladder Predictions

    See I thought they currently were still nursing the recovery of a heap of players from last season with modified programs. Disrupted preseasons would spell a likely difficulty in running out the season.
  2. Wandering Hawk

    The AFL In 10-Years Time

    That too, but later. I fear that it would feel like punishment for no flags, whereas the Eagles both have a proud history and aren't nominally a one town team. And yeah I'd be happy to split the Hawks to help Tassie get started, although a Tas team is doubtless not viable at present and is...
  3. Wandering Hawk

    Scharenberg ACL

    I've smashed a shoulder repeatedly. I'd smash the bad one again a million times over the good one. I imagine that might translate to knees.
  4. Wandering Hawk

    Scharenberg ACL

    I reckon you always won't trust a knee that snapped, especially as they only get back to about 80% strength and you just snapped the good one at 100%. About 40% of reconstructions snap in the next few years. You've now got that on both sides. Also rehab would be nuts. You've gotta stop your...
  5. Wandering Hawk

    2016 Ladder Predictions

    Hey, why do people keep putting Sydney so far up the list? Not hating, just asking to see if I'm missing something. It seems to me they have a mass of injuries in the midfield with most players on altered training regimes with limited depth right when rotations are being limited, plus an...
  6. Wandering Hawk

    AFL crisis response

    Next thread : Volunteer which team should be on the plane. Include a eulogy.
  7. Wandering Hawk

    The AFL In 10-Years Time

    Yeah. It's just a pity that we have these fellow football mad states that only get a game or two a week. People talking about reducing the number of teams in places like Melbourne are foolish imho. It's so hard to start something up, and in fifty to a hundred years we would kill for more teams...
  8. Wandering Hawk

    The AFL In 10-Years Time

    Extra teams in WA and Adelaide seem possible. Especially once membership in the current local teams no longer gets you a seat at games and hits a functional cap. Extra teams means more home games in the state. Instead of 2 derbies per year you get 6. Stadiums get used for afl more than once a...
  9. Wandering Hawk

    Scharenberg ACL

    Poor lad. And the good knee too. This one will have a worse rehab as the other is injured and it's already deconditioned before the injury. I bet he's in a black place. One acl you could hope was just a normal accident, two I reckon you feel really like a victim. Hope all goes well for the...
  10. Wandering Hawk

    Your Clubs Best Triple Premiership 22

    What about 2 flags then, or does that make the field too broad?
  11. Wandering Hawk

    Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

    I'm enjoying this thread too much for it to descend into merely flaming other clubs. Oh, wait, you're paying out $ydney. My bad. Carry on.
  12. Wandering Hawk

    Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

    Reminiscent of the Hawks on 1989. How scary were the Cats that year? Outstanding side in an era of many outstanding sides. Good footy days.
  13. Wandering Hawk

    Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

    Although, if they did kick 960 in a match I must admit I'd have to rethink everything I thought I knew about football, and probably would consider them a strong finals possibility if not a flag contender. Think of the percentage.
  14. Wandering Hawk

    Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

    Hey any chance of getting the current team Off/Def values as a table as well as a graphic? I'd write up the predictions for y'all, but I would just be estimating values off the graph. Or are they already somewhere and I'm just a full *?
  15. Wandering Hawk

    Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

    Nah mate just an inclusive use of we. You me and Final Siren all use this value...
  16. Wandering Hawk

    Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

    Let's now do the loser team. It was on 50 offence and 50 defence. It was expected to kick 85 and did exactly that. So we know the offence will not change. When we take 91% of the old offence and add 9% of what offence it needed to kick what it did, we get the same value, an offence of...
  17. Wandering Hawk

    Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

    Yes mate. Each game we use 90% of the old values plus ten percent of the values that would have produced this week's score. Worked example. You have two teams playing, both with fifty offence and defence ratings. I will call them winner and loser. The expected result is a draw, kicking...
  18. Wandering Hawk

    Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

    Awwws :-( I seriously doubt that everyone fully follows the smoothing moving averages you are using. New Offence = 0.91X + 0.09(Y - Z)*A/85 Where X =old offence Y = your score Z = the ground modifier A = their defence You justify your selection of parameters and formula by appealing to...
  19. Wandering Hawk

    Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

    You assume the probabilities are independent, that there is no path dependence. ;-) You might lose because of critical injuries and then lose again because they are still out. Nitpick Nitpick. When you model your score distribution about an expected score, why not use a binomial...
  20. Wandering Hawk

    Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

    Final Siren - I don't hugely want a predictor with randomness generated, because it detracts from the data analysis. Unless of course for fun you used a stochastic model (?jump diffusions) to model the chance of deviating enough from the expected margin to reverse the result. Wild guessing is...
  21. Wandering Hawk

    Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

    Love this thread guys. Just as we can calculate a team specific modifier for individual grounds, have we tried team specific modifiers vs other teams? Eg Cats better and Hawks worse head to head? Does this help the model at all, especially when combined with team specific ground modifiers?
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