See I thought they currently were still nursing the recovery of a heap of players from last season with modified programs. Disrupted preseasons would spell a likely difficulty in running out the season.
That too, but later. I fear that it would feel like punishment for no flags, whereas the Eagles both have a proud history and aren't nominally a one town team.
And yeah I'd be happy to split the Hawks to help Tassie get started, although a Tas team is doubtless not viable at present and is...
I reckon you always won't trust a knee that snapped, especially as they only get back to about 80% strength and you just snapped the good one at 100%. About 40% of reconstructions snap in the next few years. You've now got that on both sides.
Also rehab would be nuts. You've gotta stop your...
Hey, why do people keep putting Sydney so far up the list? Not hating, just asking to see if I'm missing something.
It seems to me they have a mass of injuries in the midfield with most players on altered training regimes with limited depth right when rotations are being limited, plus an...
Yeah. It's just a pity that we have these fellow football mad states that only get a game or two a week.
People talking about reducing the number of teams in places like Melbourne are foolish imho. It's so hard to start something up, and in fifty to a hundred years we would kill for more teams...
Extra teams in WA and Adelaide seem possible. Especially once membership in the current local teams no longer gets you a seat at games and hits a functional cap.
Extra teams means more home games in the state. Instead of 2 derbies per year you get 6. Stadiums get used for afl more than once a...
Poor lad. And the good knee too. This one will have a worse rehab as the other is injured and it's already deconditioned before the injury.
I bet he's in a black place. One acl you could hope was just a normal accident, two I reckon you feel really like a victim.
Hope all goes well for the...
Although, if they did kick 960 in a match I must admit I'd have to rethink everything I thought I knew about football, and probably would consider them a strong finals possibility if not a flag contender.
Think of the percentage.
Hey any chance of getting the current team Off/Def values as a table as well as a graphic?
I'd write up the predictions for y'all, but I would just be estimating values off the graph.
Or are they already somewhere and I'm just a full *?
Let's now do the loser team.
It was on 50 offence and 50 defence.
It was expected to kick 85 and did exactly that. So we know the offence will not change. When we take 91% of the old offence and add 9% of what offence it needed to kick what it did, we get the same value, an offence of...
Yes mate.
Each game we use 90% of the old values plus ten percent of the values that would have produced this week's score.
Worked example.
You have two teams playing, both with fifty offence and defence ratings. I will call them winner and loser.
The expected result is a draw, kicking...
Awwws :-(
I seriously doubt that everyone fully follows the smoothing moving averages you are using.
New Offence = 0.91X + 0.09(Y - Z)*A/85
Where X =old offence
Y = your score
Z = the ground modifier
A = their defence
You justify your selection of parameters and formula by appealing to...
You assume the probabilities are independent, that there is no path dependence. ;-)
You might lose because of critical injuries and then lose again because they are still out. Nitpick Nitpick.
When you model your score distribution about an expected score, why not use a binomial...
Final Siren - I don't hugely want a predictor with randomness generated, because it detracts from the data analysis.
Unless of course for fun you used a stochastic model (?jump diffusions) to model the chance of deviating enough from the expected margin to reverse the result. Wild guessing is...
Love this thread guys.
Just as we can calculate a team specific modifier for individual grounds, have we tried team specific modifiers vs other teams? Eg Cats better and Hawks worse head to head? Does this help the model at all, especially when combined with team specific ground modifiers?
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