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  1. calyam

    Fyfe vs Dusty

    If Richmond traded Martin for Fyfe I'm not convinced they'd be any worse. Just a little different. If Freo traded Fyfe for Martin I'm pretty sure they'd be worse. Martin and Fyfe have similar levels of production, according to most metrics, but Fyfe offers a certain level of leadership that...
  2. calyam

    A 100 goal season & Joe Daniher: is he overwhelmingly the most capable player of achieving it again?

    Good point but already addressed in the analysis. Based on his kicking last season there is a 22% chance that he is really just a trash goalkicker who merely got lucky. So no there is not a compelling argument that last year was an exception, rather than the rule. On a statistical note, the...
  3. calyam

    A 100 goal season & Joe Daniher: is he overwhelmingly the most capable player of achieving it again?

    A detailed analysis of goalkicking released last year indicated that Daniher was a more accurate and reliable kick for goal than Buddy, Kennedy and Riewoldt. And a step behind the best KPFs in Cameron, Taylor and Brown. He was judged as above average given the shots that he takes. Daniher...
  4. calyam

    A 100 goal season & Joe Daniher: is he overwhelmingly the most capable player of achieving it again?

    In his last 22 games he has kicked 60 goals and averaged 15 disposals per game. He is playing mainly as a centre half forward that spends some time in the ruck. I'd expect him to keep playing that role and I'd view his current 22 game stats as being the floor during his prime. Potentially he...
  5. calyam

    A 100 goal season & Joe Daniher: is he overwhelmingly the most capable player of achieving it again?

    He doesn't even have that this season. I noted earlier in the thread that Cameron has the best chance of kicking 100 goals in a season due to a combination of superior accuracy, a better team and more finals.
  6. calyam

    A 100 goal season & Joe Daniher: is he overwhelmingly the most capable player of achieving it again?

    The answer to the question 'who is the most likely player in the league to kick 100 goals' is now, as it has been for some seasons, Jeremy Cameron. 1. He has the capacity to generate a lot of opportunities (5.4 shots on goal in 2017 so far). 2. He is an accurate kick for goal (65 per cent...
  7. calyam

    Moved Thread Is Paddy McCartin ahead of Tom Boyd?

    Boyd (3rd season): 11.2 disposals; 3 marks; 0.8 goals; 7.1 hitouts; 53.4 SC McCartin (2nd season): 7.0 disposals; 4.4 marks; 1.3 goals; 44.2 SC Moore (2nd season): 9.1 disposals; 4.5 marks; 1.4 goals; 57.5 SC Wright (2nd season): 11.5 disposals; 4.9 marks; 1.6 goals; 72.2 SC Hawkins (3rd...
  8. calyam

    Moved Thread Is Paddy McCartin ahead of Tom Boyd?

    Everyone is ahead of Tom Boyd.
  9. calyam

    Zach Merrett vs. Jack Billings

    I love Merrett. He is a gun. But Bontempelli will not only be the best player from that draft class but also the best player in the league within three to five seasons.
  10. calyam

    Marcus Bontempelli Vs Patrick Cripps

    Cripps first season is fairly similar to Bontempelli's first season. He gets a lot more of the ball but he also tends to handball a lot which limits his impact on the contest. Bontempelli's first season wasn't particularly amazing compared with a number of first year players - it's been the...
  11. calyam

    Marcus Bontempelli Vs Patrick Cripps

    He's a top 20 player in the league and he's a teenager. It's as impressive as it sounds.
  12. calyam

    Marcus Bontempelli Vs Patrick Cripps

    The AFL Player Ratings are based on a formula derived by Champion Data. They incorporate a range of factors that are not captured by other advanced metrics such as those used for SuperCoach. By comparison, with the AFL Player Ratings I'm not even sure I'd consider the likes of SuperCoach to be...
  13. calyam

    Marcus Bontempelli Vs Patrick Cripps

    Bontempelli is ranked 20th in the league across the past two seasons; Cripps is ranked 353rd. The rankings incorporate the last two seasons so Cripps is disadvantaged by virtue of not really playing last year. That said Bontempelli's rise is without precedent - he's made the top 20 two years...
  14. calyam

    Jack Watts or Michael Hurley

  15. calyam

    Who should have been All Australian Ruck?

    I would've gone: 1. Cox 2. Maric 3. Naitanui 4. Jacobs Personally I saw the first three as a cut above Jacobs. I would've started Cox in the ruck (allowing Pavlich to take his rightful place in the forward line) and then had Maric sitting on the pine.
  16. calyam

    Conca Vs Heppell

    That is a phenomenally stupid argument. As a poster has already pointed out, Dustin Martin was Richmond's third best player last year. So not only is your argument phenomenally stupid, it is also poorly researched. Well done.:thumbsu:
  17. calyam

    Conca Vs Heppell

    Ok, lets take bias out of consideration. According to ChampionData, in 2012 Heppell has had an almost 30 per cent larger impact on the games he has played than Conca has. That's fairly sizable. I will give Conca this though, last season the difference between the two was almost 50 per cent so...
  18. calyam

    Conca Vs Heppell

    Joel Bowden became underrated throughout his career and I was always surprised that a contender didn't think it was worthwhile to give him a shot when he fell out of favour at Richmond. While I can understand the similarities, I think Heppell will ultimately play as a midfielder throughout most...
  19. calyam

    Best AFL career?

    So far it'd have to be Hird. Obviously a great playing career and so far he has not put a foot wrong as coach. Voss has yet to prove himself a good coach and given some highly questionable recruiting was perhaps a little lucky to still be at the helm. Most of the coaches had solid playing...
  20. calyam

    Conca Vs Heppell

    No matter how one-sided a game, players from the losing team will always gather decent sound stats. Someone will graph 30 possessions, plenty will touch the ball 20 or more times. But the raw numbers are not as important as what you do with it and when you do it. For example, a number of GWS...
  21. calyam

    Conca Vs Heppell

    I'm not saying that Conca isn't a good player. He's had some very good games and he will be an excellent player for the Tigers for the next ten years. I'm just saying that the game against Collingwood probably was not one of them since there tends to be a lot of empty stats in one-sided games...
  22. calyam

    Conca Vs Heppell

    Richmond lost that game by 71 points. Did you seriously just use a game that was over in the first quarter, where Collingwood dominated the midfield, as an example of a great game by Conca? Really? Furthermore, using raw, simple statistics is not a great way to prove the point. Advanced...
  23. calyam

    Conca Vs Heppell

    The only one would be Conca's game against Melbourne this year.
  24. calyam

    Which player is closer to 'elite'

    This thread would have been more interesting had it been made prior to the 2010. Thomas was damn good in 2010 and performed excellently in 2011. He may very well be Collingwood's best player over the three grand finals in the past two years. Anyone who saw the first half of Watson's season...
  25. calyam

    Hurley vs Martin

    I'm not going to delve into the broader debate but I generally agree with this. Elite midfielders are a dime a dozen - they really are and they just are not as valuable as a genuine dominate forward. It did not surprise me that when the Herald Sun surveyed a whole bunch of footballers last year...
  26. calyam

    How Many Disposals will Swan get Tonight??

    How many will hit their intended target? I've got my fingers crossed for at least 10.
  27. calyam

    Nathan Fyfe vs Dustin Martin vs Luke Shuey

    Fyfe looks like a one of a kind type of footballer and he's already in the top dozen players in the league.
  28. calyam

    The bigger Brownlow story: Judd or Ablett?

    Judd's third would be the bigger story simply because of the players he joins. However, Ablett winning would be a massive achievement given most would consider a player winning from the bottom team practically impossible.
  29. calyam

    The HOF Inductees - Who is the greatest?

    So you never watch the Anzac Day clash? I hear Hird went pretty good in those.
  30. calyam

    Right now- Hardingham or Barlow?

    Provided there was no permanent damage to Barlow's leg he should win pretty easily. He had the best debut season we have seen for a very, very long time.
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