Preview GWS v Brisbane Lions

I wrote a preview for the Lions board for this game so I'll throw it up here as well to kick off this week's preview thread. Disclaimer: Lions board, so "we" and "our" is Lions.

Preview:

After a couple of tough weeks, I know plenty of people on this board having us losing to GWS after very average games against Essendon and Collingwood. I'll state straight off that I've seen all the games for both teams save for our Geelong game, and I don't think this one is in danger.

Almost without fail our games have gone as expected. We've beaten those we should and lost to those who should beat us. The only massive disappointment has been the uncompetitive game against Essendon and first quarter against Collingwood.

GWS has shown pluck, and has been willing to pounce on teams that ease up for a quarter or two (or three... hey, Carlton!). However it's only really last week where they put three quarters of their own together to beat the kids down the road. Overall I think they may be able to give us a scare, but hopefully it will be more like our game against the GC. After the loss to GC last year we're not the kind of team to take a game against GWS lightly, which is the circumstance in which I see us losing. GWS's win against GC will only reinforce that.

GWS's forward line is very "unpredictable" (to borrow a phrase). Those playing as key positions include Cameron, a Sam Reid-like player with better goal sense who can take a speccy, Giles when resting as a strong ruckman, Folau and occasionally Davis. Personally I think we match up really well, with Maguire on Giles, Patfull on Cameron and Drummond on Folau with the ability to run off. Golby will go to Smith. I'm assuming Merrett will remain forward as the second ruck, though I hope Hudson comes back in and we move Longer up to the forward line (Merrett moving down back).

Our own forward line is pretty much dysfunctional at the moment. Brown looks like he's at 3/4s of what he used to be, which is still better than most around. Merrett and Longer are tokens up forward. Ace should come back in, and used in conjunction with Brown and Karnesis. Realistically I think this will be a wash, as GWS has Davis, Cornes, Mohr, Bugg and Kennedy all capable of good run with roles, with most capable of providing run out of the defensive 50 as well.

Midfield should be a win for us - Rich, Redden and Rockliff (etc) will have the body advantage over most of the GWS kids. Even Ward, Scully and Palmer are of similar size. GWS's big advantage (much like GC) is their ability to win the ball. Both recruited well for this, but once they have it they can be taken advantage of with their overuse of the ball (much like us from time to time) or just inexperienced kicks booting it to players under pressure.

Overall we should be getting up by 40-ish points. Our backline should be able to defuse attacking forays, and our forward line and mids drifting forward should be just good enough to put up more than enough points.

Basically I think that Brisbane know they could lose to GWS if they come in with a Carlton-type mindset, so they won't. They had their loss to GC last year to let them know not to take these games lightly, and we see the results in the following two games against the GC.

dlanod with that write up some might say your showing your true colours

From a GWS point of view it will be interesting to see how GWS come up after the emotion of having there first win.
That said I would like to think that from the confidence that GWS will get from that win will give them the self belief to really ask major questions of Brisbane and with a bit luck I give GWS a very good chance to go back to back.

As far as outs go I see Sumner going out, and most likely Mcdonald back in unless we want to hold him back for one more week so he has fresh legs when we face the bombers

Oh, for this game to be played in Western Sydney. Brisbane are ripe, they are not playing well and we're on a roll. But it's in Brisbane and that's .... unfortunate. I know every game is a test, but some tests are more.

We've had a win - we have to travel (again)

I'll be very interested to see how they handle it.

Brisbane have the worst kicking efficiency at 69% and the highest number of clangers in the competition, averaging 56, as versus our 71% and 46.

They get slightly less clearances than we do, at 38 to 39.

They average 8 contested marks, to our 11.

Their best clearance player, the legendary Simon Black, is under an injury cloud.

If we smash them in the clearances, they dont have enough skill by hand and foot to destroy us with rebound footy, the way good sides have.

As well, our forward line of Cameron, Folau and a Giles resting forward will give them much greater matchup problems than we will have at the other end, where its a case of No Brown, No Lions.

If we play Giants footy, we'll win.

Bear in mind that Brisbane's last three games have been Geelong, Essendon and Collingwood. While it's generaly held that you shouldn't overrate teams because of their opponents (see Brisbane, post-round 1), it's also true that you shouldn't underrate them if they've had a tough run.

captainMyCaptain said:

dlanod with that write up some might say your showing your true colours

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I would have thought the lack of a complete switch of the team supported would have been the give away. Didn't stop me dancing around the living room or pumping the fist after those last four goals in the fourth though.

There is a deluded Lion on here. As a spectator at Manuka oval, your assessment of the Giants is a very narrow one. Yes Giles played a blinder, but it was the desire, run and drive of the midfield types who kept the Giants coming. As for deriding the Blues effort against the Giants, I believe we weren't that far off our game, they were super competitive. Do not underestimate the effort of the Giants. They are also benefitting from a rotational policy, their youngies and oldies are getting a regular rotation. All of the stink about Juddy resting was amusing, Giants rotate 3 or more every week, with success. Unlike the Suns of last year they are holding, if not building form and fitness, they are avoiding the fatigue factor. I have a lot of time for the Suns, but don't kid yourself, the Giants are harder than the Suns of 2011 and 2012. Certainly if bringing the Blues in to your assessment, the comparisons will favour the Giants over the Lions. Not saying Lions can't win, but bring your A game or prepare for the consequences

Coona Blues said:

Not saying Lions can't win, but bring your A game or prepare for the consequences

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That was exactly my point - They can't afford to be complacent otherwise they will lose, but the Lions know they need to bring their A game after losing to GC last year for exactly that reason.

As for being deluded, hardly. Realistic would be the term I'd use.

Bringing up Carlton, they weren't attacking the ball hard enough for most of the game. I agree that the kerfuffle about Judd being rested was just an irrelevant sideshow.

Anyone of you (GWS fans) coming up for this game? Always wanted to meet a GWS fan

Anyway if we don't win this we officially suck and I will rage.

GO LIONS!

The Dlanod Cup! Can't wait!

TheBrownDog said:

The Dlanod Cup! Can't wait!

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Actually this should be called the Luke Power Cup!

I don't know how relevant this is, but I vividly remember what happenned to the Suns the week after their maiden win..

They travelled down to Etihad and all their newfound confidence didn't stop the switched on home team kicking a record first quarter score against them.

If the Giants are not fully committed to the contest there is a chance the Lions could take the early advantage and get a 5 goal break by the first quarter, which they should be able to maintain.

However the Giats should show more confidence than the Lions, and when you're confidence is high things just kinda go your way.. Very interesting match, Lions by 12 points..

UrLordUnbeliever said:

I don't know how relevant this is, but I vividly remember what happenned to the Suns the week after their maiden win..

They travelled down to Etihad and all their newfound confidence didn't stop the switched on home team kicking a record first quarter score against them.

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I really hope this happens to the Giants this weekend...

Everton said:

Actually this should be called the Luke Power Cup!

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I went 6 on my Giants jumper for a reason.

(My Lions jumpers have 21 (21st birthday present, not due to an affinity for Merrett) and Harwood's 26 (prize from last year's BF sponsorship) so it was nice to pick a meaningful one for a change.)

captainMyCaptain said:

dlanod with that write up some might say your showing your true colours

From a GWS point of view it will be interesting to see how GWS come up after the emotion of having there first win.
That said I would like to think that from the confidence that GWS will get from that win will give them the self belief to really ask major questions of Brisbane and with a bit luck I give GWS a very good chance to go back to back.

As far as outs go I see Sumner going out, and most likely Mcdonald back in unless we want to hold him back for one more week so he has fresh legs when we face the bombers

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i can see a second win for GWS. the lions are toothless, clawless, and clueless. GWS are coming off a confidence boosting win and a great coaching staff to guide their emotions to the best effect.

good luck GWS. it will make our loss to you blokes that bit easier to take if you nail the lions.

.

tigernova said:

i can see a second win for GWS. the lions are toothless, clawless, and clueless.
.

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People said the same thing the week we played you this year. We were coming off a bad loss, you had pushed Essendon hard... what happened again?

UrLordUnbeliever said:

They travelled down to Etihad and all their newfound confidence didn't stop the switched on home team kicking a record first quarter score against them.

If the Giants are not fully committed to the contest there is a chance the Lions could take the early advantage and get a 5 goal break by the first quarter, which they should be able to maintain.

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I can't help but think the best thing that happened for Brisbane's chances is GWS winning against GCS. Means Brisbane will take it seriously, even at a subconscious level, and GWS could go in with the wrong attitude.

Though surely Sheedy and Choco can keep that in check appropriately.

TheBrownDog said:

People said the same thing the week we played you this year. We were coming off a bad loss, you had pushed Essendon hard... what happened again?

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the difference between the GC and GWS is the coaching staff. GC are novices. GWS have a legend. sheedy will know how to prepare the young side after a big win. thats what makes him such a great, proven, winning coach. he has time and again proven his competence over many years, he is an elite coach.

the GC coach on the other hand have unknown quantity, and an inexperienced coach. he didnt have the experience to draw from last year when they won.

for the life of me, i cant understand why a young franchise went for an unproven coach. the GWS got the model right. GC should pull out all stops to get malthouse.

im tipping GWS to have a close win this week. all through great coaching.

THe GC loss to Essendon last year after a win v Port is a complete furphy as GC lost Bock for the Bombers game, and couldn't replace him or reshuffle the decks. TBD Besides, GC probably did celebrate generously, as did their coach, but if any Lions fans believe that GWS will do the same this week, and assume that GWS are not going to have a red hot crack at a mentally fragile Lions outfit, then yes deluded-ness is correct.

As much as GWS has sent GC off to the loony ward (their next two games are must wins) a GWS win against LIons will cause the sacking of coach Voss. Thats how much is riding on this game.

I consider it sheer hubris that a Lions supporter should start this thread on this Board. The very definition of arrogance and self delusion (there you go TBD - get in a cheap shot).

Dlanod, your postulate premise that Lions have Giants covered in the match-ups so should be 40 pts the better is beyond belief. Did those same matchups have any bearing on the capitulations these last three weekends ? Games are won on guts and intensity, not necessarily on the Game Board. Respect is not gained by playing your best defender in a languishing FF role.

Regarding match-ups, will 18 yr old Longer be going up against Brogan, Giles or Phillips or all three ? Pleeeeeeeeeeez. JBrown can be double teamed and SBlack given a hard tag. Where are the other avenues of attack?

GWS (Sheeds and Williams & 5 flags) will be looking at this game as a pearler, as another win will set up their Skoda baptism beautifully. Don't think for a minute its just another scheduled game for them. They are both ruthless scheming wolves, working in tandem no less.

Chairman Angus Johnson has announced yesterday that players heads will roll at end of season ie our situation is dire. So what does a Lions supporter do - he waves a red flag at the newbie Giants. Its all symptomatic of the inanity that has gripped the club since Lethal the Magnificent left the Lions, and I mean that in a good way Leigh.

Wow, nice emotionally charged rant. Serious business.

Kinda neutered though by the fact that the guy who started the thread is also a GWS member...

Heh well Black Falcon kindly reminded me why he's already on my ignore list.

I'm sure the Giants are following what everyone posts on message boards about them. Especially considered analysis that's backed up with reasoning from someone who's a member, supporter and watcher of both clubs involved. How will they sleep at night, knowing I tipped the Lions. How will the Lions club sleep at night, knowing I'm out here taunting teams with previews that apparently represents the views of the club. My god, how do any of us sleep at night? The horror! THE HORROR!

Black Falcon said:

GWS (Sheeds and Williams & 5 flags) will be looking at this game as a pearler, as another win will set up their Skoda baptism beautifully. Don't think for a minute its just another scheduled game for them. They are both ruthless scheming wolves, working in tandem no less.

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exactly. game on. lions have a real determined, confident team coming for them, with a genius general plotting their demise.

i hope the lions take this easy. you were 40 behind in the 1st quarter last weekend. it could happen again. GWS did it to the GC, in the last quarter after defending on their own goal square for 10 minutes. one slip and the GC conceded 5 goals before the kettle boiled...

lions vs GWS. great game. i cant wait. even though im a qlder, i like an underdog. no malice against the lions. i just think GWS are being taken too lightly..

tigernova said:

exactly. game on. lions have a real determined, confident team coming for them, with a genius general plotting their demise.

i hope the lions take this easy. you were 40 behind in the 1st quarter last weekend. it could happen again. GWS did it to the GC, in the last quarter after defending on their own goal square for 10 minutes. one slip and the GC conceded 5 goals before the kettle boiled...

lions vs GWS. great game. i cant wait. even though im a qlder, i like an underdog. no malice against the lions. i just think GWS are being taken too lightly..

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I think we'll put a hard tag on Black, with the same Shiel-Scully tag team tag that worked on Ablett, and we'll smash them in the clearances. I think their awful kicking and handpassing will lead to turnovers, and we'll turn those turnovers into goals.

I think Mohr and Cornes will double-team Brown.

I think Cameron is due for another bag of goals.

tigernova said:

no malice against the lions

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I don't believe you.

tigernova said:

the lions are toothless, clawless, and clueless.

good luck GWS. it will make our loss to you blokes that bit easier to take if you nail the lions.

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I think that after the baking that our young boys got from our chairman and from Chris Johnson today, they will be looking to make some amends against a team that isn't Geelong, Collingwood or Essendon. GWS are showing that they are not a team to be taken lightly, and after GC's loss last week, in addition to the Lions loss to GC last year, our boys should be on guard.

I'm looking forward to seeing this one, I just hope that the boys can arrest thir poor form and confidence slump. I shall be there cheering Lukey on as well, although I might use my quiet voice for that one

IanHaso84 said:

I'm looking forward to seeing this one, I just hope that the boys can arrest thir poor form and confidence slump. I shall be there cheering Lukey on as well, although I might use my quiet voice for that one

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I'll be cheering Lukey on too. Would've done the same for Bradshaw as well. But I'll give it to Mitch Clark when the Dees come up.