Round 4: Lions v Suns (Q-Clash 3)

Date:

Saturday, 21 April

Time:

2.40pm local time

Venue:

Gabba

Ticket Info:

here

TV and Radio Coverage:

All Areas: Live on FoxFooty from 7.30pm
Queensland: Live on 7mate from 7.30pm

Social Media:

TBA

Last time they met:

Lions by 62 points (Round 21, 2011)

Betting Odds

TBA

Weather Report

A few showers, possible storm. Min 17 Max 27

Re: Round 4 - Lions v Suns (Q-Clash 3)

Preview by bry gram

Q-Clash time again!

As disliked as the name is, the clash itself isn’t. Everyone loves a good rivalry and whilst it’s no Carlton-Collingwood hate-fest, it’s better than the appointed “rivalry” we previously had with Sydney. This match is a free ticket for us to bust out all the anti-Gold-Coast slurs we can muster instead of allowing the boost in AFL presence and funds they’ve brought to QLD to reason with our logic. It also gives us the delightful opportunity to hang sh$t on Brennan and Riska (more so Brennan) – and seriously, who doesn’t love that?!

This game can go either two ways. It can be a display of ugly ugly football (word repetition intended!) or it can be a great advertisement for both the young and established talent both teams have. Here’s hoping it’s the latter.

In writing this and attempting to reflect on the last times we’ve played the Suns to give me a starting and reference point – it’s occurred to me that I don’t have the best recollection of direct form against each other.

The first ever Q-Clash was one of the Lions worst performances of 2011 so has subsequently been blocked from my memory. The second Q-Clash was wiped from my memory through no fault of my own – it was Chopperduck's. It was his birthday so I was forced to drink to celebrate, so we were both a little inebriated…that may be a slight understatement. All I remember is there was a lot of Ablett heckling suggesting Nathan was a better player. Then the pre-season match this year was a write off given the weather. If it was raining – it was raining that heavy you couldn’t actually see the play; and if it wasn’t, it was that wet that any realistic person would know not to take anything from form in that game.
So please bare with me if this Match Preview is more facts based than ‘history dictates’ based.

The Season Thus Far & Form
Brisbane:
The Lions season has been hit and miss so far to say the least. If we can win over the Suns, we’d be 2 for 2 which on paper, is what would have been viewed as realistic for the start of the season for us.
There have been some ‘hits’ for us (Rich ‘standing up’, the continuation of emergence of players like Polec and Lester, FINALLY accomplishing the strongest defensive line up we’ve had in a while * touch wood *, the capability of our playing style as shown when we matched it with Carlton in the first quarter) and of course there have been some misses. The biggest ‘miss’ for us seems to be our stamina. By the time the 4th quarter rolls around, the boys are looking tired – both mentally and physically. This then means players aren’t going for the ball as much, and when they do chance upon a possession the disposal is wasted and the other team mops its up and runs it straight into their forward.

You would assume that the lack of stamina would be largely contributed by the fact the Lions are a young team and simply don’t yet have the fitness. Whilst our fitness was greatly improved over the pre-season, it still isn’t enough to match it with the top teams. This said, with Gold Coast being a young team as well, their stamina and fitness would also be on par to ours so our stamina problem shouldn’t be an issue as much.

Gold Coast:
Credit where credit is due – if the Gold Coast took us on how they took on the Dons, we would be in trouble. There has been a lot of questions thrown out about whether the Gold Coast have/will progress enough in 2012, but at the end of the day, they’re still only in their 2nd year of the competition and have a very young side. Their game against Essendon showed they do have the talent to be a contender – but a few years down the track when they can consistently hold that form.

The season thus far has shown they lack defensive discipline, which, with our current defensive line up and players like McGrath, Drummond and Adcock and their ability to run it off the back through the centre, this could potentially be an area that proves very dangerous.

On the other hand, their midfield is still full of young talent and our mids need to ensure they’re given the respect they deserve. And Ablett – well, he’s Ablett.

Possible Teams
Brisbane:
Obviously there’s one obvious player to be omitted from the team – Bergs. As much as reports are playing down his injury, I just can’t see him pulling up for next week.

In terms of any player not keeping their spot based on performance, to select any one player would be like finding a needle in a haystack – they were all lacking skills and execution. The only changes that may be done would be reward those playing well in the reserves and perhaps inject some “fresher” legs into the team. But as there aren’t any obvious changes, this is how I’d imagine the team would look:
(Note: clearly they’re not going to line up like this – it’s for all intents and purposes only)

B: Drummond Merrett McGrath
HB: Maguire Patfull Golby
C: Adcock Raines Hanley
HF: O’Brien Brown Beams
F: Banfield Hudson Lester
Foll: Longer Polkas Redden
I’Change: Rich Rockliff Harwood Polec

In: Hudson
Out: Bergs

Gold Coast:

After the ‘run for their money’ the Suns gave Essendon on Saturday, it’s hard to see them changing their team at all. The only two inclusions that could be in the mix are Iles and Dixon. After Dixon’s BOG form against Morningside on the weekend, bagging 4 goals, you would imagine he could provide another big tall forward option for the Suns. However as I said – I don’t imagine Suns will be changing their team so their could look something like….

B: Brennan Warnock Tape
HB: Harbrow Bock Shaw
C: Riska Prestia Caddy
HF: Russell Lynch Bennell
F: Fraser Day Hall
Foll: Smith Swallow Ablett
I’Change: Weller Hunt Matera McKenzie

No Change.

Key Match-Ups

Brown vs ???
With Bock playing as a main forward for the Suns lately, Gold Coast don’t have an experienced FB/CHB who would be automatically ear-marked to take on big name and big stature forwards like Brown. Fortunately for the Suns, Browny showed on the weekend that he’s still under-done with his fitness. This would allow the possibility of a player like Hutchins to reasonably take on the big man. However, should Browny out-play Hutchins and prove to be too dangerous, the Suns would have to consider relinquishing Bock at FF/CHF in order to shut him down.

Smith vs Hudson/Longer
With the omission of Bergs, this ruck dual has been made more interesting. Had Bergs been playing and taking on the ruck, he would have won this dual easily. Whilst Zac Smith is a great young ruck, Bergs is essentially the more experienced, bigger bodied version of Smith – and experience and size will always win out. However, after this weekend it’s a different story. The Lions would rotate Hudson and Longer through the ruck and the forward line as has been the case with our ruck combo. Longer shows enough to be able to simply match Smith in the ruck, whereas Hudson and Smith are booth different styles of ruck so this would prove to be an interesting dual. Having Hudson being a more ‘robust’ ruckman, his assistance with the midfield could possibly be the support that’s needed to win the pending midfield battle.

Midfield vs Midfield
Both sides have midfielders who will be the stars of the future, with the inclusion of an absolute all-star player. In the Suns case, they have Ablett, unfortunately for us – ours is the injured Blacky. The Suns core midfield consists mainly of Ablett, Swallow and Riska with players like Thunder Thighs (Hunt), McKenzie and Matera rotating through. For the Lions it will be the 3 R’s (Rockliff, Redden and Rich) with players like Polkas and Harwood rotating through.

Gone are the days when teams had traditional taggers who would automatically be assigned to the likes of Ablett. So instead, the battle of the midfield will come down to simply – whoever wins the ball the most and gets it effectively into their forward line the most frequently. Both sides have a great young midfield and this duel will only continue to get better with time.

The Winning Factor for Each Team

For both teams, it will come down to the midfield. Both teams don’t have a super strong forward line (given Brown is underdone), so the balance of the game will be reliant on which team has a midfield that can not only clear the centre, but support the forward line and score a few goals amongst them.

And of course, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention Brown again. After Saturdays game against Freo, I’m unsure if Brown will even take the field. I’m uncertain what the Gabba’s policy is on golf-carts on the field prior to the game. It’s possible we may not even see the great man if the Gabba groundsmen don’t allow Brown to be chauffeured to the centre square for the coin toss!

In all seriousness though - if Brown is on his game, he will most likely draw Bock out of their forward line which of course takes away their main forward focal point. Throw Merrett into the mix in our forward line as well and we become very hard to match up on for the younger-bodied Suns.

I’ll tell you one area neither team wins in – the mascot stakes. If Bernie gets off his segue long enough to ‘channel’ some Oba and challenge Sunny-Ray, I fear their battle will turn into a disco-dance-off with the look of them both.

Summary and Prediction

For the sake of Queensland footy promotion, I can only hope we see the good side of both teams. As for the Lions – one would assume this would be the case given our biggest issue is our stamina, and against the Suns this shouldn’t be an issue.

Whilst the Suns will be riding high with confidence, I believe our slightly more experienced team, home ground advantage and pride will get us over the line.

My tip: Lions by 27 points.

Foot note: Apologies for the length of this. I’m naturally long-winded and if I could have hidden it by ‘beautifying’ the preview I would have. Unfortunately, adding an emoticon is the extent of ‘picture-inserting’ I know how to do.

Re: Round 4 - Lions v Suns (Q-Clash 3)

Thanks bry gram for a rippa preview!

Great read!

The only thing I would mention is that Matty Warnock will get the job on Brown, much like he did when we met in the NAB Cup. If he is getting absolutely obliterated, May will probably move onto him. Warnock is in pretty decent form, keeping Hurley very honest last week. Though he'll never be AA quality, I'd back him to do a serviceable job on Brownie right now.

Bock switches back and forth all game, from defense to forward. I counted some 7-8 times he made the switch against Essendon. However, it would have to be some serious destruction for him to move into the back-line for the whole game.

Got my tickets for this match. Looking forward to seeing the Lions get their second win of the season.

Sunny_ said:

Great read!

The only thing I would mention is that Matty Warnock will get the job on Brown, much like he did when we met in the NAB Cup. If he is getting absolutely obliterated, May will probably move onto him. Warnock is in pretty decent form, keeping Hurley very honest last week. Though he'll never be AA quality, I'd back him to do a serviceable job on Brownie right now.

Click to expand...

Ohhh Warnock! Of course!! I was actually talking about him with Chopperduck last Thursday when I was using him as a sounding-board for my thoughts but we got stuck on whether it was Matthew or Robert that played for the Sun and it then went amiss.

If you think that's long winded bry I think you're in for a rude awakening when it's my turn again!!

Thanks for a good preview read! I particularly enjoyed the Brownie golf cart reference and the "Nathan is the better Ablett" references

Fantastic preview Bry gram!

My tip: Lions by 5 or 6 goals.

I'm personally at the stage where I'm genuinely worried about the development of Polkinghorne. I'm a huge fan of his when he has the ball, as I feel he's a solid user who usually makes the right decision, and knows very well whether he has the skills to execute various options.

Unfortunately he is just nowhere near the ball. If someone could watch him closely this weekend to see whether it's a matter of him not getting to contests or playing different roles that would be good.
Unfortunately I can't make the game this weekend, but hopefully it is a good spectacle for everyone.


On a side note, I very much miss the way we used to try and own the corridor up the middle of the ground. It seems to me we are more scared about being scored against on the rebound than giving our forwards the amount of supply needed to win games of football.
I'm aware that the tactics employed against Freo were designed for that game and not our permanent game plan, but I still feel we're on a path which is giving our forward line both little supply, and supply that is much too slow to ever really worry defences.

Nice preview bry_gram. Particularly enjoyed the revelations about Chopperduck's forced drinking birthday celebration policy. Am hoping to score an invite to this year's forced drinking party myself.

Raines to Ablett - if he holds gazza to < 40 possies = WIN!!!!

Reckon this may come down to who burns their delivery the least - hopefully Redden and Hanley have gotten the pineapples out of the system, so regular service can resume this week.

The Ashcroft/Chopper medal to Rocky - just so we can all get some lulz reading Hammo's match report the next day.

What a great read,am I right in thinking the first preview by a woman?
Very well done.
I am sure you are never short of footy conversations in your house.

Before last weekend the Lions would have been very confident coming into this game but an inept offensive performance against Freo and a very good GC performance against Essendon and everyone is much more jittery. Lets hope for a return of the GC side we saw in the first two weeks.

Some game plan ideas for Vossy for the weekend:

1. If pressured kicking it into 50 aim to kick it to Brennan. He has been a turnover machine so far this year and the odds are good we would get it back in a very good spot.

2. When Bock goes forward Merrett should go back and when Bock goes back Merrett should go forward. Bock is pretty good at both ends and that match up at both ends would be very entertaining.

3. Have Raines start outside the square at the centre bounces and have our three best clearances guys in there chasing the ball. Raines can pick up GAJ very soon after the bounce but we need to get our hands on the ball first more often. GC are good in this area and we need to give ourselves the best opportunities.

4. Prior to last week GC were nowhere defensively through the middle of the ground. We need to have the likes of Rocky, Redden, Hanley and Polec moving through there to present and establish our game early. More importantly this is Rich’s chance to run without a tag (of a very inexperienced one if they use someone like Weller on him) and he should be primed to get a heap of it. If he can we are a good chance to win its as simple as that.

5. The smalls need to keep out of the leading lanes of the talls. They need to arrive at pace as the ball does and not be standing around in the road.

6. The midfielders also need to work from the backside into the forward 50 to pick up some easy marks and goals. Our mids are still not a big enough goal scoring threat.

7. GAJ has been in superb form in the first 3 rounds. If we can hold him we are well on the way to winning. Raines needs to go out there and run his guts out particularly when GAJ is sneaking a little one two at the attacking 50. Polkinghorne started on Fyfe last week and he should be the back up tagger to swap onto GAJ for a while to give Raines a break. These guys should tag team him.

8. GC have as many ordinary users of the ball as we do and if we should try and make sure we leave these guys as the option if there is a choice between the likes of Bennell and Weller say. Weller, Rischitelli, Brennan, Caddy, Russell, Warnock, Hunt, Fraser have all used the ball poorly when I have watched this year.

The key to beating the suns in my opinion is to treat them with respect. Just going out and playing to win without structures and a semi-defensive plan enables the Suns to get on a role. Unlike the first game, in the second game Voss did take it seriously and we ground out quite a convincing win in the end. The forward line need to function this week through...

Ceebee said:

What a great read,am I right in thinking the first preview by a woman?

Click to expand...

I never really considered it but I think you are right Ceebee.

Just found these Lions & Suns stats pages on the Curious Mail website. Thought they might be interesting reading this week considering we're playing each other on Saturday night.

If these stats are to be believed (it is the Curious Mail after all) then here's my thoughts:

• It's interesting to see us rank higher in clearances than them... a) because that is a known problem for us and b) that is where they smashed us in the first game last year
• In terms of contested footy & tackles we rank pretty closely so there's no clear winner there in the "tough stuff"
• Going inside 50 and scoring from inside 50s is also pretty much a tie but one would hope an in form Brown could help us there

Overall those stats look largely pretty close which is probably largely helped by the Suns good game last week. Before that I would have expected to see those numbers flatter us a bit more after the first 2 games... although we did get belted in most of those by the Blues.

Anyway just thought it'd make interesting reading and analysis for those interested.

Ceebee said:

What a great read,am I right in thinking the first preview by a woman?
Very well done.
I am sure you are never short of footy conversations in your house.

Click to expand...

POBT said:

I never really considered it but I think you are right Ceebee.

Click to expand...

Nah - I'd suggest young Warwick has beaten her to it, where is that raspberry lemonade sipper?

Well done bry_gram, as Dennis Cometti would say... word count perfect.

You suggested not knowing how to post a pic bry_gram, please allow me...

This was one booked pre-season to fly up for Blacky's 300th... and I will be lucky enough to be watching the game with John.

**A warning to Mr Hammo** - we'll be keep an eye out for you!!

If the teams are selected as bry gram suggested:

Brisbane
B: Drummond Merrett McGrath
HB: Maguire Patfull Golby
C: Adcock Raines Hanley
HF: O’Brien Brown Beams
F: Banfield Hudson Lester
Foll: Longer Polkas Redden
I’Change: Rich Rockliff Harwood Polec

Gold Coast
B: Brennan Warnock Tape
HB: Harbrow Bock Shaw
C: Riska Prestia Caddy
HF: Russell Lynch Bennell
F: Fraser Day Hall
Foll: Smith Swallow Ablett
I’Change: Weller Hunt Matera McKenzie

Click to expand...

Then overall the changes since the last time we met will be-

Brisbane
In: Brown, Merrett, Patfull, Rich, Hudson, Beams, Lester, Longer, O'Brien, Harwood, Polec
Out: Black, Power, Clark, Leuenberger, Staker, Stiller, Karnezis, Cornelius, McKeever, Hawksley, Sheldon

Gold Coast
In: Warnock, Caddy, Russell, Hall, Hunt, Matera, S.Day
Out: Iles, Stanley, Wilkinson, Krakeour, Dixon, May, J.Daye

Are we better or worse off? Half the team has changed

probably slightly better off I'd say

In the press conference the Lions just put up, McKenna mentioned playing Brennan on JB because he knew him well.

What are the odds on Browny kicking 5+?

PattyKisagun said:

In the press conference the Lions just put up, McKenna mentioned playing Brennan on JB because he knew him well.

What are the odds on Browny kicking 5+?

Click to expand...

It won't happen. Brennan playing on Brown, anyway. He's be in defense acting as a third man up type, not so much lock down defender. Might spend a bit of time on him, but cannot see it being much at all. Depending on where Brown plays, it will be either May(if he's playing) or Matty Warnock on the Lions Captain.

Considering how much it comes into our 50, Jars playing in defense keeps Brennan in the game too. I'm sure you all know how much he can disappear and re-appear if left in the midfield.

Hopefully Brennan plays as your loose man in the back, and we give you that to have Drummond as our loose man. Althought to be honest, i don't think McKenna is that silly. Stranger things have happened though, despite being probably the best 'QB' in the AFL, it is surprising how much space Drummond gets in some games.

whizkizz said:

Then overall the changes since the last time we met will be-

Brisbane
In: Brown, Merrett, Patfull, Rich, Hudson, Beams, Lester, Longer, O'Brien, Harwood, Polec
Out: Black, Power, Clark, Leuenberger, Staker, Stiller, Karnezis, Cornelius, McKeever, Hawksley, Sheldon

Are we better or worse off? Half the team has changed

Click to expand...

Shows just how unsettled our team is as to finding our best 22. So many changes in such a short amount of time. We are slowly starting to get there though.

Jorgo said:

If these stats are to be believed (it is the Curious Mail after all) then here's my thoughts:

• It's interesting to see us rank higher in clearances than them... a) because that is a known problem for us and b) that is where they smashed us in the first game last year
• In terms of contested footy & tackles we rank pretty closely so there's no clear winner there in the "tough stuff"
• Going inside 50 and scoring from inside 50s is also pretty much a tie but one would hope an in form Brown could help us there

Overall those stats look largely pretty close which is probably largely helped by the Suns good game last week. Before that I would have expected to see those numbers flatter us a bit more after the first 2 games... although we did get belted in most of those by the Blues.

Anyway just thought it'd make interesting reading and analysis for those interested.

Click to expand...

Agree. Suns had a good game, and we had a pretty ugly game, so i think those have brought the stats a bit closer together, however, it's only round 3, still hard to judge just how good some teams are going.

Really hope we can stamp ourselves on the game and show there is a gap between us and them. I'm sure the boys will be up for this one, we must be more proactive (not the skin care product) and less reactive. I think we still quickly fall back to bad habbits when we get challenged. Start worrying about opposition players, and start following in the midfield again instead of going for the ball. I know Melb were bad, but we played so differently in the first game. Full of confidence we did as we liked winning the ball.

Think Quigley mentioned earlier that he would like to see Raines start from outside the square, and i agree. I still like Raines as a tagger, and he has a good tank, but i just don't think we can afford to have a negative player at center bounces as 1 of our 3, especially when we lack players with the toe to go into the pack and come out the otherside with the ball. We are still lacking a tackle breaking midfielder, someone who can do well in traffic, basically a ball carrying version of Black. Where Black handballs out of congestion, we need someone who can take a few steps before having to dispose of it.

PattyKisagun said:

What are the odds on Browny kicking 5+?

Click to expand...

I don't like correcting people because it makes me sound condescending but I think you left out a 0 after the 5

blynd_freddie said:

Nah - I'd suggest young Warwick has beaten her to it, where is that raspberry lemonade sipper?

Well done bry_gram, as Dennis Cometti would say... word count perfect.

Click to expand...

blynd_freddie said:

You suggested not knowing how to post a pic bry_gram, please allow me...

This was one booked pre-season to fly up for Blacky's 300th... and I will be lucky enough to be watching the game with John.

**A warning to Mr Hammo** - we'll be keep an eye out for you!!

Click to expand...

Another classic from Cometti yesterday when he said of Chris Evert that, having married an Englishman, Australian and American all she needed was to marry a Frenchman and she had herself a Grand Slam.