Preview Rd 9 - North Melbourne v Brisbane Lions

Date:

Sunday, 27 May 2012

Time:

1.10pm local time

Venue:

Etihad Stadium

Ticket Info:

Here

TV and Radio Coverage:

All areas: Live on FoxFooty from 1.00pm
Queensland: Live on 7mate from 1.00pm

Social Media:

TBA

Last time they met:

North by 45

Betting Odds

North $1.28: Brisbane $3.95

Weather Report

Min 11 Max 15 A few showers.

Preview by Gibbo 88

This game was to be the battle of the rucks, I chose to do a preview of this game based on Leuenberger vs Goldstein and had the stats to prove Leuey is the superior ruck, which we already know...but Leuey got injured and Goldstein lost his form so now the ruck battle won't be the main event that I'd hoped for…

However!

The leap on Billy the kid has got me excited so it's worth a look.

It is amazing that a 1st year ruck has stacked on enough bulk to play at AFL level, I didn’t think we would see more than a handful of games over the whole season. If Longer stays in the team, it is a great opportunity for him to play against Goldstein who despite not playing at his best is one of the trickier rucks to play against, prefers to use his left hand for hit outs but is just as capable with his right. This has been Goldstein's advantage over his opponents and this works well for some reason against most rucks as they are predominantly right handed but our boy Billy is a lefty who can also use his right.

The battle of the ruck could look something like this

[YOUTUBE]FmcsBa27jug[/YOUTUBE]

Billy has had the 4 games for the year and is averaging 20.5 hit outs per game, however he clearly wasn't right against essendon and hardly played in the ruck so I'm going to ignore that game where he only had 7 hitouts and he is actually averaging 25 a game. Goldstein is also averaging 25 hit outs a game. Add Mcintosh (chance of returning from injury) and Hudson (on the assumption he will return) into the ruck battle and based on the hit out stats for the 4 rucks, we might just come out on top but Mcintosh is the only 1 of the 4 that has shown he is capable of going forward and is averaging a goal a game. Hit outs don't always = clearances though...

So far this season the Roo’s are averaging 40 clearances a game while we are averaging 38, not really statistically significant. Against GWS we broke even with the clearances, lost by 16 to the bombers, won by 4 against GC and won by 1 against Cats. North won by 13 clearances against GWS, lost by 14 to the bombers, won by 6 against GC, won by 11 against cats. Clearances don't = midfield dominance and contested possessions doesn't either as we have found out quite a few times.

Some other stats: Us: Them
145 contested possessions to 144
210 uncontested possessions to 231
54 clangers to 45
47 inside 50's to 59
60 1%'s to 50

After all my rambling and statistics, it just proves nothing but what we already know, we are capable of getting our hands on the ball but we turn the ball over more than any side in the comp.

Weaknesses: I think both sides have shown their biggest weakness over the last few weeks. We don't cope with being locked in our defensive 50, we rely on a ruck being able to take a contested mark to get us out of jail from kick ins and at this stage I don’t think Longer and Hudson offer that. If a side can sustain the energy on locking us in, we go into our shells. It's only the opposition dropping off the pressure that we're able to try and work our way back into the game. We are also the no. 1 team for clangers and we can’t afford to give the ball to North that much.

North’s weakness is their kick to handball ratio. They are the only side that is close to 50:50 and their game plan is all about playing on through handballing to try and cut through the midfield which is similar to the game plan the bombers had a few years ago. Pressure their midfield through players like Redden, Beams, Zorko and Green and we will see their run stop, they will start overusing the ball and they will just bomb it along the line in hope.

Who does Raines tag? Wells, Harvey and Swallow are the 3 we have to worry about. I think it has to be Wells, he has speed and if he isn't followed closely he will be cutting us up through the midfield. Harvey threw a forearm at a port player so won't be surprised to see him miss a week but he is down on form and at 34 it's probably his last season, still capable of a good game. If Beams comes in he should go to him and I think a few players will rotate on Swallow as he is smashing the clearances so far this year.

What the coaches said: Voss didn't have much to say at all, didn't expect much either after the game was over at quarter time. He mentioned that the focus was on the defensive part of the game and working on being predictable by going back to the basics. Perhaps our game plan (whatever that is???) was too complicated for where our list is at and until we have more experienced footballers we can’t play the way we want to. I think he was just relieved at the result and didn't take too much from the game.

Scott had an attention-grabbing press conference. Was extremely frustrated, looked like he wanted to throw a table over. "It was mental lapses, didn't handle the pressure, 60 inside 50's to 42, most bewildering game I’ve been apart of”. The last thing he said is pretty strong words so that may fire a few players up. I don’t think we will see many changes to the Roo’s, It was the final 10 minutes of the game that cost them when they were comfortably ahead for the other 110 minutes.

Whilst I don't think we got a lot out of the game against GWS, the positives were Merrett getting some confidence, Longer getting another game, but the best part was we clearly showed respect for them and didn't underestimate them at all. I am choosing to ignore our win against GWS because I think our players still owe us for the rubbish they served up against the Pies. Both sides have a very health injury list so there will be no excuses. Other then Polkinghorne, I'm not sure who should be dropped, I'd like to see Beams back in and think Longer definitely needs support from Hudson against Mcintosh and Goldstein.

All the pressure will be on North and there is no advantage to them over the break between games as they played in Adelaide. I think they will start off strongly, they will be fired up after the heartbreaking loss against Port and if we can stick with them through that then we are a good chance of coming out on top. I think North is capable of playing well when they have to and I think we will be a side they will take lightly. I think this is the game that Browny will show he has still got it to the whole competition by kicking 5. Simon Black to ‘throw’ the ball to Rich for the winning goal. Lions by 5 points.

I’d also like to add I think of North as BM (bowel motion) as I struggled last year to remember which Scott was coaching them

Thanks Gibbo for a great preview although the last sentence has got me confused!!!

Haha – the ol’ not going to an anticipated well laid out pre-planned plan…

But you’ve held onto your original theme and hit the ground running which might then segue to your last sentence and ‘Twos’ and Scott toilet paper?? I genuflect to your power of confusion Gibbo_88

Ins: Hudson and Beams, with Longer having a rest [totally with the ressies having a bye] – and if there was no bye I think Polec might have also gone from sub to the seconds – I wonder if Patfull coming off was for balance or in line for a break? [sorry to even suggest this Kezz – I can see myself being offered up for trade come the end of the season] and Raines to Harvey.

Merrett now following the old Petrie/Hale forward/ruck position? History will now ask the AFL to now finally get off his back re him kicking the first goal of the game again!

Hopefully the entire squad will be buzzing through all the training this week and be chomping at the bit and looking forward with anticipation to the trip to the Docklands for a change!

IMO.

Possible In(s): Beams, Hudson, Stiller, Bartlett, Ace, Retzlaff.

Possible Out(s): Polkinghorne, Green, Lester, Karnezis, Longer, Patfull.

As usual these aren't 1 for 1's, Just who I think has the highest chances of In's and Out's.

Some interesting selection issues for the Roos.

Greenwood, Atley, Macmillan, Harper and Cunnington are all a chance to have a rest in the reserves this week. McKenzie and Warren might get dropped. Anthony will almost certainly return. Garlett hasn’t been selected this season but apparently is going okay in the seconds. Mullett and Campbell are others who might come in.

Edwards missed last week with ‘soreness’ but that may have been code for being dropped. I assume he’ll play against us but they might bring in Lachie Hansen instead for his first game of 2012. One of Delaney or Pedersen will probably make way to give themselves another forward option.

Goldstein had another ordinary game, so it’s probably a 50/50 call whether he plays this week. On the one hand, neither he nor McIntosh can do much else other than ruck. On the other hand, Petrie is by far their best forward option and they’d rather keep him down there all game than have him go on the ball every so often. Either way I think we’re better off playing Hudson with Merrett spelling him. Tough ask for Longer to play three straight games as the lone ruckman.

Take out Wells and North have a very proletarian looking midfield. Lots of eager young players, not a lot of real damaging ball carriers. Harvey managed to get off from the MRP so Voss will have to decide who Raines runs with. My preference is Wells, as Harvey is likely to spend some time down forward.

Grima will go to Brown, and is likely to do a pretty good job on him. It’s lucky that Merrett picked last week to show he can be a genuine goal-kicking target because our mids will have to look for him a bit, I reckon. Delaney struggled badly against Schultz last week.

Maguire will go to Petrie. Petrie tore him apart last year but I’m pretty optimistic that Goose can do a better job this time round. Patfull to go to their second forward, whether it’s Hansen, Edwards, Pedersen or whoever.

The Roos will come out breathing fire early. The challenge for us will be to stay with them. They’re not the best ball users in the league (and hell, neither are we!) so it’s likely to be a pretty tight, scrappy game if it doesn’t blow out early. Given the way they’ve been finishing off their games lately we have to be a chance if it’s close in the last quarter.

I think we need to play both ruckmen this week.

I really hope we don't drop Green I want to see him get a run of games.

what sort of chance do people give us?

its interesting we have only played top or bottom sides up till now. this is our first chance to test ourselves against a middle of the ladder team

Well, with Beamstar17 and blynd_freddie off my Christmas card list and officially trade bait p), IMO the pressure isn't on us, it's on North, and that could be to our advantage.

We need wins against teams like North, who are in a similar place to us. I think our momentum and their headspace will work for us, so Lions by 6.

I reckon we should let Longerplay as many games as possible need to develop this kid asap.

Tiger G said:

I reckon we should let Longerplay as many games as possible need to develop this kid asap.

Click to expand...

We don't want another Charmo/Leuey situation, though. He will be managed to prevent long term injuries, which could occur if he plays too many games too soon.

Good chance this week to notch up 4 points against a struggling side. They're been very disappointing since their win over Geelong (which in hindsight wasn't as amazing as it seemed at the time).

They've lost to Port, and the Dogs, two teams who are around our level.

Did okay against West Coast (worth noting WC 17.18 to 15.5... 35 to 20 scoring shots).

They beat Gold Coast (only ~5 goals, at home)

And got beaten well enough by Sydney.


They're 1-4 from their last 5, with a solitary win against GC.

We're 2-3, with two thumping wins over GC, and GWS. We've suffered 3 thumping losses to Geelong, Collingwood, and Essendon (the Geelong game being a wet weather write off, where our accuracy up forward cost us any chance of staying in it...), though.


To summarise, neither of us have beaten anyone of note in the past 5 weeks, though when we are up, we have won in better fashion. We have shown we're not quite ready to take it up to the top sides, though against the lower placed sides we have performed quite well (though the only lower placed sides we've played are the bottom three dregs of the competition). If we can get on top early in this one, and get our tails up, I think we'll be good enough to run away with it.

Lions by 21, Browny to kick another 5 (hopefully).

Also, at $3.60, very good value.

BeamStar17 said:

IMO.

Possible In(s): Beams, Hudson, Stiller, Bartlett, Ace, Retzlaff.

Possible Out(s): Polkinghorne, Green, Lester, Karnezis, Longer, Patfull.

As usual these aren't 1 for 1's, Just who I think has the highest chances of In's and Out's.

Click to expand...

Is Bartlett as a possible in anything more than hopium?

Stranger things have happened, but I certainly wouldn't be promoting him on the strength of his last ressies game.

Notwithstanding unknown injuries, I think Huddo and Beams are the only likely Ins, while Retzy and Ace will need to bide their time.

whatboutbob said:

Is Bartlett as a possible in anything more than hopium?

Stranger things have happened, but I certainly wouldn't be promoting him on the strength of his last ressies game.

Notwithstanding unknown injuries, I think Huddo and Beams are the only likely Ins, while Retzy and Ace will need to bide their time.

Click to expand...

I have a suspicion that on a Monday or Tuesday coming up we'll see an article on the Lions website talking up Bartlett and then on the Thursday that week we'll see him named.

Browny loves playing vs North and has had a few field days against them. I am nowhere near as confident as you lot though, I wouldn't be surprised if North won by 10 goals.

Wish we were playing them a week earlier. They were ready to be beaten last week, but with all the pressure that this week has brought I can't see any scenario where they don't lift. I don't think we'll win this one, but very happy to be proven wrong.

Also the first Victorian game I'll be getting along to for the year, so very excited on that count.

It all does come down to the midfield again though. Win the clearances and we're a good chance. There were a few patches against GWS where they even topped us in that regard (I think over a five or ten minute period it was 5-1 to them at some stage), so that will be essential. Hopefully Beams can come in and add his class to get that done.

I’m not convinced by PK yet, is good for a couple of goals a game but not much else at the moment. Think Ace offers more.

Karnezis versus Cornelius
15 Games 17
5.9 Kicks Per Game 6.1
2.0 Handballs Per Game 2.3
7.9 Disposals Per Game 8.4
3.7 Marks Per Game 4.4
1.4 Goals Per Game 1.4
1.1 Behinds Per Game 0.8
1.4 Tackles Per Game 1.7
0 Hitouts Per Game 0.2
0.7 Frees For Per Game 0.5
0.5 Frees Against Per Game 0.6

I think Karnezis is better at ground level and more suited as the 3rd tall.

jackess said:

I think Karnezis is better at ground level and more suited as the 3rd tall.

Click to expand...

When Voss started to experiment a bit in the second half, it looked like he had Karnezis playing further up the ground, like he had done in the reserves.

I think that's a big advantage. With Brown and Merrett in the forwardline, sometimes you're best off just clearing out some space for them, so a third tall needs to do more than mark and kick goals.

I agree with weevil too, though. Not convinced he really adds much to the team right now. No perfect replacement unfortunately.

North to be 6 goals up after 10 minutes is my fear.

Cousin Jed said:

North to be 6 goals up after 10 minutes is my fear.

Click to expand...

Don't worry mate, if we are 6 goals up with 10 minutes to play it will be an even money ball game.

Also, if you have any soft midfielders that are playing in the ressies and need a stat & confidence boost i'd suggest telling Vossy to give them a game.

This current North team is the best in the league at making hacks look decent.

Out:
- Polec - his output had been declining anyway before getting only two possessions as the sub - so he could probably do with a rest;
- Longer - this is a real tough one. Held his own against Giles and gave a reasonable effort vs. Collingwood. But if we want to win this game, then the more experienced Hudson must come him. The only question is can we afford to keep Longer in the team at the same time? I don't think we have that luxury due to our lack of leg speed. Although if North bring in McIntosh, Longer may have to stay in the side.

In:
- Beams - seems to be the most obvious replacement for Polec after a couple of games back from injury in the reserves;
- Hudson - we need his experience to go against Goldstein and Petrie (and possibly McIntosh)

Very lucky:
- Polkinghorne - only 13 possessions in a romping win, coming after a very poor display against Collingwood. He could easily be omitted, but who would we replace him with? Sheldon would probably be the answer, so I am not sure if that would be a good thing or not. Polks still might have to be dropped to make way for Hudson if we decide to go tall.

With Merrett kicking 7 and Karnezis playing OK (although he could do better) I don't think ACorn or Retzlaff will be considered this week.

Polec playing as the sub might actually have been his "rest".

whatboutbob said:

Is Bartlett as a possible in anything more than hopium?

Stranger things have happened, but I certainly wouldn't be promoting him on the strength of his last ressies game.

Notwithstanding unknown injuries, I think Huddo and Beams are the only likely Ins, while Retzy and Ace will need to bide their time.

Click to expand...

Well he has been named in the bests a couple of times now.

Not exactly sure but hasn't he played almost every reserves game now?

I think he'd come under serious consideration this week as the sub.

Ace has a better chance to come in then Retzy but you have to play them eventually, After 7 goals each on the weekend you feel they might throw one into the senior team whilst they're on a high.

That is also why I only claim "Possible" and not certainty.

Kangas by 30. Hopefully we remain competitive for the whole game.

TomFC said:

When Voss started to experiment a bit in the second half, it looked like he had Karnezis playing further up the ground, like he had done in the reserves.

I think that's a big advantage. With Brown and Merrett in the forwardline, sometimes you're best off just clearing out some space for them, so a third tall needs to do more than mark and kick goals.

I agree with weevil too, though. Not convinced he really adds much to the team right now. No perfect replacement unfortunately.

Click to expand...

Yeah that is kinda why I was leaning towards Ace, with the idea of him playing up the ground.

It’s interesting how similar their stats are, yet PK is the golden boy and Ace is in and out of the side. Ace is a bit of a famine or a feast where as PK is pretty consistent.