Analysis “Hawthorn are middle of the road at best” discussion

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HODGEYROAD

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Sounds like you're dying to be right....instead of being happy.
Will your estimation take in any factors like injuries?
What if we finish in 4th with 14 wins as do the 4 teams below us, only separated by percentage...?

Wouldn't you prefer to allow your eyes tell you the story....
How about if we don't win the premiership, but beat the team that does on every occasion we play them through the year, as well as the other top 3 or 4 teams?
If you're good enough to beat the best teams, but flakey enough to lose to 'middle of the road teams', what are you? Aren't you just on road to somewhere, nowhere, or same same?

If we were to finish between 6th and 10th for 6 seasons in a row without showing much ability to do better, but never quite stinking it up, then I'd call us a middle of the road team.
I'd rather be wrong and have us win our 14th Premiership.

Obviously injuries play a part but I'd be judging this over a 4 year period.

Then you're middle of the road, as top teams are very consistent as that's what being a top team is all about.
 

HODGEYROAD

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Why do you keep crapping on about finals since 2015 like it means anything to 2019, or even next year?
Because it shows not surprisingly given the success we had that we've been off the pace for a significant period of time, not that I blame the club as it's nigh on impossible to stay at the top in this current climate. But I just think this board needs a dose of reality at times, rather than the we'll win Premierships because we're Hawthorn.
 

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The Chad and I

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Nov 13, 2018
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Richmond (system & form) & Giants (talent) clearly above everybody else.
We're in that group of 6 teams below, and their fortunes are all dependent on luck as much as anything else.

I expect a fair improvement in for us from Lewis, O'Brien and Patton.
Frost taking on KP defensive responsibility should help us become more attacking too.
Having Mitchell back and a full season from Wingard might help a bit too.

Buckle up and just enjoy the ride.
We've got a great team leading the charge to our next premiership, from the coaches down.
 

grumbleguts

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Aug 14, 2011
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Can't just pick and chose games to strengthen your argument. If we evaluate our 2019 season you take every game into account.

You can certainly mount a case that we'll be better in 2020, however.
What? Of course you can.

Imagine if every single best 22 player were injured, or sick or otherwise detained, and then came back and we won 11 lost 11, Won the latter half when the best 22 all returned simultaneously and lost the first half where the grand son of the lady who washes the jumpers lined up at full forward.

You should only measure the teams form on the latter half, because the first half isn't even the team. Here's the thing. Te thread title says AT BEST a middle of the road side, so pick the best five games in 2019 and tell me honestly you think AT BEST it's a middle of the road side. Because AT BEST we beat a bunch of very highly rated sides including a grand finalist twice. AND the personel in those games was quite dissimilar to those we played poorly in.
 

flinchfree

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Jan 30, 2014
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.............

Then you're middle of the road, as top teams are very consistent as that's what being a top team is all about.
You keep saying very sensible things, but the results don't support your thinking that Hawthorn - being inconsistent in our results, are in a wildly different situ than other clubs hoping to win it all..

West Coast
2014 -9th
2015 -2nd
2016 -6th
2017 -8th
2018 -2nd
2019 -5th

Sydney
2014 -1st
2015 -4th
2016 -1st
2017 -6th
2018 -6th
2019 -15th

GWS
2014 -16th
2015 -11th
2016 -4th
2017 -4th
2018 -7th
2019 -6th

Collingwood
2014 -11th
2015 -12th
2016 -12th
2017 -13th
2018 -3rd
2019 -4th

Hawthorn
2014 -2nd
2015 -3rd
2016 -2nd
2017 -12th
2018 -4th
2019 -9th

Geelong
2014 -3rd
2015 -10th
2016 -3rd
2017 -2nd
2018 -8th
2019 -1st

Footscray
2014 -14th
2015 -6th
2016 -7th
2017 -10th
2018 -13th
2019 -7th

Richmond
2014 -8th
2015 -5th
2016 -13th
2017 -3rd
2018 -1st
2019 -3rd

I mean, reading those end of season ladder results if you didn't know the game, hadn't watched it and given weight to injury and luck or lack of it, or perhaps ascending form and arrival of young talent that is changing a list, who would you think was consistently a top contending team if bouncing around the ladder was a qualifier that disqualified?

Richmond I guess is the closest to sustained consistency, tossing out 14' and 16'. Certainly not the Bullies, their pure finishing position looks like crap though most who know the game would count them a quality side who hasn't found a way - not a middle of the road team.
I reckon Geelong's bounces in 15' and 18' are every bit as poor as our own drop down the ladder. They can't be better than us, so also middle of the road?
GWS reads super middle of the road, talent be damned and recent playing style un-repeated, Collingwood perhaps on the rise but too soon to judge - no?
Sydney on the slide.
West Coast all over the joint.

So maybe it's about terminology, kinda like when Tige was suggesting we had very few A grade players and I in turn suggested that means that the vast majority of all players in the game are b grade and below save the superstars. That just doesn't sound right to me, I reckon the top players on most teams are A graders and probably make up at least 20-30% of the league.
You perhaps think anyone who isn't in the grandfinal/qualifying final every year as middle of the road..?
Whereas I don't see more than a couple teams of recent times who are going better than us, so that makes us pretty good with the upside of recent form against those winning/elite teams and kids who look like they're made of Hawthorn stuff.
The reason we win stuff, right? The Hawthorn way.
 
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Judd2Sewell

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Sounds like you're dying to be right....instead of being happy.
Will your estimation take in any factors like injuries?
What if we finish in 4th with 14 wins as do the 4 teams below us, only separated by percentage...?
Wouldn't you prefer to allow your eyes tell you the story....
How about if we don't win the premiership, but beat the team that does on every occasion we play them through the year, as well as the other top 3 or 4 teams?
If you're good enough to beat the best teams, but flakey enough to lose to 'middle of the road teams', what are you? Aren't you just on road to somewhere, nowhere, or same same?

If we were to finish between 6th and 10th for 6 seasons in a row without showing much ability to do better, but never quite stinking it up, then I'd call us a middle of the road team.
Why would we need to finish in that position for 6 years straight to be considered a middle of the road team? We finished 9th, outside of finals, in an 18 team competition - which is the very definition of middle of the road.

Now that just on face value, and doesn't factor in the critical injury to our best player. But based on last year we were a middle of the road team, there's no way around that fact.

Hopefully with the return of Mitchell (in some capacity), the new faces, the improvement from some younger players and some adjustments in game plan we will move ourselves out of being a middle of the road team and fight out for a top four spot. Some of our end of season wins were encouraging, so hopefully the club picks up where it left off.
 

Zack

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We probably ain't given the past 3 years, we are top 6 overall without winning finals. But agree finals is what it is about,

But yes we are rebuilding but not every team can be like Melbourne doing that. (I'll forgive GC 17 and just say GWS got it right apart from the GF last year.)

I am ok with where we are at, Not sure it will be an ultimate win next year, but we are thereabouts. Gillon hates us, but he hates all teams that don't shove a silver spoon up him and his brothers ass, so who cares... I guess we do come finals times when he gives umpire directives to go against us, but generally he's just a tall lieing incompetent dufus. Who makes Demetriou look like a genius.
 

Niles Crane

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Nov 6, 2016
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Because it shows not surprisingly given the success we had that we've been off the pace for a significant period of time, not that I blame the club as it's nigh on impossible to stay at the top in this current climate. But I just think this board needs a dose of reality at times, rather than the we'll win Premierships because we're Hawthorn.
Can you stop posting bad things about hawthorn?
 

Davo-27

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i think at the end of 2016 we saw a change from being a dominant team to a team that was middle of the road, from 2008-2016 every year bar an average 2009/10 we had a legitimate chance to push for premiership success because of the team and good off field set up that had been put in place in the big shake up at the end of the 2004 season which led to nearly every aspect of the club changing dramatically, every aspect for the better imo, mainly thanx to Jason Dunstall i believe with help from Dipper, Platts, Dermie and others showing interest and pushing for change.

in 2017 a big change happened from what i could tell, players we had relied on to drive our success had dropped off in form, retired or left to other clubs past their prime, our list was ageing and players form was reflecting that, some got long term injuries, some lost the passion to go on after achieving everything that they had ever dreamed, which is natural and happens every now and then, but the club was still in that mode of lets try and win everything now and at the same time trying to bring in players in their mid 20's to fit in with the ageing list, which had worked when we had a reliable leadership group leading the way, but which was obviously different now, without the inspirational leaders we couldn't just plug and play anymore, we had to develop internally with youth, which i believe we are finally committing to (i think its been the overwhelming success of Sicily, Hardwick, Worpel in recent years that has sold them on this concept).

i think we have traded and recruited recently very well and we are seeing the benefits of that with a midfield and back line that is strong and a forward line that is developing nicely, if everyone at the club work hard and make good decisions, im sure that we can get back into a position to challenge for more premiership glory sooner than later and wont that annoy the establishment.
 

threesixpio

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Jun 28, 2013
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I wonder how Richmond would have gone if they'd missed out on their best player for the entire season. Not just a few good ones, we missed those as well, but their best player donuts for the season.
Ok. Richmond had some massive injuries (Rance!) and still did pretty well. Cleary not only have a great list but very good depth.

That’s said, by best player you’re likely saying Dusty. Reckon they would have been more than ninth though

Our issue was the first half of the year and a schmozzle of a forward line.

Feel pretty confident that we are beginning to turn this around - but who knows
 

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