1/3 through the season..will we make the top 8?

top or bottom

  • Yes, we will finish top 8

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • No, we will finish bottom 10

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    0

mcuzzy

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Thread starter #1
try to think logically and realistically about this, don't let recent emotions get in the way of your decision.

my personal opinion is we will just miss out this year

i know it's early to call but i like hearing what everyone has to say

what does everybody else think?
 

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WATiger86

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#3
Always thought this year would be a stretch - if we'd one the close ones we'd be a real chance - probably need to win the next 2 to be any hope now... Looking a Monty for next season though
 

Barry_Badrinath

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#4
50/50 at this stage for me.

Win the next two and it's on.
Win 1, lose 1: Still a good chance form 4-6
Loss both: finish


Saints are beatable but losing Grimes right before the best key forward duo in the league will hurt.
 

TheProwler

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#5
First six:
WCE, Essendon, Carlton, Hawks, Collingwood, Sydney should all make the eight unless something absurd happens

Last two spots:
Adelaide & Norf both play GC & GWS twice so mark them down as eight points more than everyone else (although norf did capitulate yesty vs port:confused:)

Teams outside the eight that may challenge the top six:
Geelong, Freo and Saints.

Then there is us at 3&5 and two games out of the eight at present losing some games that we should have won.

Next week vs the hawks and the following vs the saints will play a big part as to our chances of making the eight. Cant afford any more narrow defeats against these positioned sides and just accept that beating bottom 10 sides will get us through.

If we lose the next two then its time to start getting games into players earmarked for certain roles for the next few year i.e. one of Vickery/Griff/Post/Astbury for Miller, Helbig/Arnott for King/Nahas etc
 
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#9
In fact if you look at every single ladder in the last 10 years 13 wins CLEARLY gets you in at least 8th spot no matter what. The ladder will change and if we win 13 games (which I think we will if you look at who we are playing for the rest of the year) WE WILL PLAY FINALS. This is barring injuries to key players of course.
 

Groupie_

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#10
In fact if you look at every single ladder in the last 10 years 13 wins CLEARLY gets you in at least 8th spot no matter what. The ladder will change and if we win 13 games (which I think we will if you look at who we are playing for the rest of the year) WE WILL PLAY FINALS. This is barring injuries to key players of course.
Being optimistic:

vs Hawks L
vs Saints W
vs Freo W
vs GWS W
vs Crows W
vs Melb W
vs Gold Coast W
vs North W
vs Carlton L
vs Brisbane W
vs Footscray W
vs Freo W
vs Essendon L
vs Port W

14 wins 8 losses. Can't see us only losing 3 more games.

Here is a more likely outcome:

vs Hawks L
vs Saints L
vs Freo W
vs GWS W
vs Crows L
vs Melb W
vs Gold Coast W
vs North W
vs Carlton L
vs Brisbane W
vs Footscray L
vs Freo L
vs Essendon L
vs Port W

10 wins 12 losses
 
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#11
Being optimistic:

vs Hawks L
vs Saints W
vs Freo W
vs GWS W
vs Crows W
vs Melb W
vs Gold Coast W
vs North W
vs Carlton L
vs Brisbane W
vs Footscray W
vs Freo W
vs Essendon L
vs Port W

14 wins 8 losses. Can't see us only losing 3 more games.

Here is a more likely outcome:

vs Hawks L
vs Saints w
vs Freo W
vs GWS W
vs Crows L
vs Melb W
vs Gold Coast W
vs North W
vs Carlton L
vs Brisbane W
vs Footscray W
vs Freo w
vs Essendon L
vs Port W

10 wins 12 losses
Sorry mate but we won't lose to the Dogs, Saints, and Freo no matter where we play them on current form. Therefore my 13 win prediction.
 

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Groupie_

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#12
Sorry mate but we won't lose to the Dogs, Saints, and Freo no matter where we play them on current form. Therefore my 13 win prediction.
We haven't beaten the Dogs for ages and I think they match up really well against us.. If this is a 'new Richmond' then I agree we should beat them.

As for the Saints, they beat Carlton and Grimes will be out plus the game is at Jihad stadium so I reckon we could lose.
 
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#14
I don't see how anyone can write us off yet given who we have to beat. All we have to do is cause one major upset to make it a 100% lock and this weekend we are a real chance. Who is also to say we cant beat Carlton next time around. Get a grip and don't be so pessimistic as we are a real chance to make it now.
 

hougie

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#15
This is always going to be a rose-tinted thread. Thus far there is no compelling evidence to suggest we're any better placed than North, Freo and St.Kilda. North have a good draw, Freo have home ground advantage and St.Kilda are still an unknown factor. Throw in Adelaide, Carlton, Collingwood, Essendon, Geelong, Hawthorn, Sydney and West Coast and we're in some serious trouble. We have beaten Melbourne, Port and an underwhelming Sydney; nothing to suggest that finals are on the horizon in 2012. Improvement yes; finals no.

Bear in mind that the addition of the 17th and 18th teams skew the ladder. No longer do 50% of teams make the finals and therefore 11 or 12 wins will probably not be enough. Strip down everything and the bare facts of the 18 team comp mean that this is the single toughest year ever to make the finals.

In summary, we've beaten those we should've beaten and lost to those we should've lost to. Compelling evidence we're in the area of the ladder we deserve to be.
 

Barnzy

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#16
Sadly another season without finals I think. Too hard now. I'll reasses if we somehow pull off a miracle win this weekend.
 
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#17
Sadly another season without finals I think. Too hard now. I'll reasses if we somehow pull off a miracle win this weekend.
Come on mate, I respect your opinion on here more than most. Surely you would think we are a good chance against Hawthorn. Essendon are in better form than them at the moment and we matched them. I see our weakness this weekend in our backline without Grimes however I dont see how their midfield and ruck division can match ours so we should keep it out of their 50 a fair bit.
 

Tigerbob

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#18
This is always going to be a rose-tinted thread. Thus far there is no compelling evidence to suggest we're any better placed than North, Freo and St.Kilda. North have a good draw, Freo have home ground advantage and St.Kilda are still an unknown factor. Throw in Adelaide, Carlton, Collingwood, Essendon, Geelong, Hawthorn, Sydney and West Coast and we're in some serious trouble. We have beaten Melbourne, Port and an underwhelming Sydney; nothing to suggest that finals are on the horizon in 2012. Improvement yes; finals no.

Bear in mind that the addition of the 17th and 18th teams skew the ladder. No longer do 50% of teams make the finals and therefore 11 or 12 wins will probably not be enough. Strip down everything and the bare facts of the 18 team comp mean that this is the single toughest year ever to make the finals.

In summary, we've beaten those we should've beaten and lost to those we should've lost to. Compelling evidence we're in the area of the ladder we deserve to be.
This....
 

The Goon

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#20
Correct and when added with little to no depth it spells for trouble for the back half of the season .
Yep. Had us down for 10-11 wins at the start of the season and don't see any reason to change that now. Had we shown more - finishing off against Geelong, WC or Ess (even just one of them) I might think we're coming on a bit faster than expected. But we didn't.
 

Livonski

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#21
This is always going to be a rose-tinted thread. Thus far there is no compelling evidence to suggest we're any better placed than North, Freo and St.Kilda. North have a good draw, Freo have home ground advantage and St.Kilda are still an unknown factor. Throw in Adelaide, Carlton, Collingwood, Essendon, Geelong, Hawthorn, Sydney and West Coast and we're in some serious trouble. We have beaten Melbourne, Port and an underwhelming Sydney; nothing to suggest that finals are on the horizon in 2012. Improvement yes; finals no.

Bear in mind that the addition of the 17th and 18th teams skew the ladder. No longer do 50% of teams make the finals and therefore 11 or 12 wins will probably not be enough. Strip down everything and the bare facts of the 18 team comp mean that this is the single toughest year ever to make the finals.

In summary, we've beaten those we should've beaten and lost to those we should've lost to. Compelling evidence we're in the area of the ladder we deserve to be.
Ahh Hougie, what's rose tinted about 82% voting against making the 8?

Can someone with the whiz bang ladder predictor tell how many wins it will take to make it, assuming a similar level of upset ratio as what's happening now? eg Geel, Carl, Norf all dropping lock in wins.

I've got a sneaking hope that maybe 12 or even 11 wins might get in this year.
 

The Goon

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#22
Surely 13 wins will be the minimum.

Every finals team should beat Melbourne, Port, GC and GWS = 4 wins minimum. You have to then win at least half of your remaining games = 9.

4+9=13. Simplistic I know, but seems to be the case.
 

tunksy

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#25
think we have also gone past north. we have a much better backline. we can beat them. ill be furious if we miss on percentage to them. but I dont think we will.

can def beat freo saints and the dogs, can even see us pushing the crows at home. can see us pushing carlton when we face them again. we are very much improved. sort out the forward line and we will outkick alot of a teams and restrict them.
 
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