- Sep 16, 2006
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If North beat freo (which they probably will as freo will likely send a B team to melbourne) we could potentially slide to 7th if we only win the Saints game.
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Prediction 1 non BLOWTORCH GAME TO GO edited
- Thread starter boondy
- Start date
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Squiggle....why hast thou forsaken us
MWPP
Flying High
If we lose 3 of the next 5 we deserve to drop out of the top 4
However, I still think we would sneak in to 4th (which, mind you, has been historically unsuccessful) as I don't think Richmond will win the rest of their games (they're likely to lose 1, most likely either Adelaide in Adelaide or North at Etihad. Even Collingwood is a slight danger game for them.
We will smash the dogs at home, and saints, so we just need to pinch the crows game and hopefully the derby.
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MWPP
Flying High
I'm slightly more confident about next week than the Derby but both are 50-50ish (even being optimistic). Nervous about the Crows game but I think it's more of a 60-40. I'll back us to maintain the 100% Adelaide Oval winning record (plus I'm flying over there for the game so I would love to see another win!).
Worse case we go 2-3 over the next five, which would likely see us finish 5th. So a win out of the other 3 games is crucial.
MWPP
Flying High
Actually, going 2-3 would still likely see us finish 4th (even though we wouldn't deserve it) because Richmond are more likely to lose a game (probably Adelaide in Adelaide or North in Etihad) than win 5-straight. Losing that many games would prove that we aren't good enough though (and would make this season irrelevant) .
In terms of history, 4th is pretty similar to 5th (no team from either position has ever won the premiership from this position) but I'd appreciate the extra finals experience that comes with 4th.
MWPP
Flying High
If anything, squiggle continues to overrate us (and underrrate freo) by predicting that we'll win the minor premiership and make the grand final. And the losing GF margin to Hawthorn isn't as bad as it was last week (because Hawthorn were even further off the squiggle predicted margin than we were!) .
- Oct 9, 2009
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If we lose to Hawks and Freo, beating Crows is absolutely crucial, that is unless Richmond doesn't win all 5 of their games.
WB and StK should be a given, but hopefully our players won't be going in with that mindset like we did last night. Every win needs to earnt, nobody will give us 4 points for free.
WB and StK should be a given, but hopefully our players won't be going in with that mindset like we did last night. Every win needs to earnt, nobody will give us 4 points for free.
MWPP
Flying High
Here are the top 5 teams' runs home with the estimated chance of winning in brackets
1) Freo- Saints (0.9), Eagles (0.55), North (0.55), Melbourne (0.9), Port (0.75) - Top spot is albeit out of reach, but I don't mind (I think 2nd is better than 1st because Hawthorn will most likely finish 3rd)
2) Eagles- Hawks (0.5), Freo (0.45), Bulldogs (0.75), Adelaide (0.6), Saints (0.9) - 2nd/3rd are the most likely finishing positions, and this suits us (for reasons I/other posters have outlined above).
3) Hawks- Eagles (0.5), Cats (0.8), Saints (0.95), Pies (0.85), Carlton (0.99). Winning this weekend would albeit seal a top 2 spot as it would give us a 2.5 game buffer over them. There's still a roughly 35% chance that Hawthorn will drop one of the other 4 games, which would be even handier.
4) Sydney- Cats (0.6), Pies (0.8), Giants (0.7), Saints (0.85), Suns (0.95)- despite being favourites in all of those games there's a roughly 73% chance they will lose at least one game. Practically speaking, this means that if we beat Hawthorn this week, we would most likely finish second even if we (unthinkably) then go on to lose 2 more games!
5) Richmond- Adelaide (0.6), Suns (0.95), Pies (0.8), Ess (0.85), North (0.55)- I think if anything, I've been generous towards Richmond! Even with these odds, they have a roughly 78% chance of losing at least one game.
TLDR- this weekend is crucial for our top 2 chances! Go Eagles!
1) Freo- Saints (0.9), Eagles (0.55), North (0.55), Melbourne (0.9), Port (0.75) - Top spot is albeit out of reach, but I don't mind (I think 2nd is better than 1st because Hawthorn will most likely finish 3rd)
2) Eagles- Hawks (0.5), Freo (0.45), Bulldogs (0.75), Adelaide (0.6), Saints (0.9) - 2nd/3rd are the most likely finishing positions, and this suits us (for reasons I/other posters have outlined above).
3) Hawks- Eagles (0.5), Cats (0.8), Saints (0.95), Pies (0.85), Carlton (0.99). Winning this weekend would albeit seal a top 2 spot as it would give us a 2.5 game buffer over them. There's still a roughly 35% chance that Hawthorn will drop one of the other 4 games, which would be even handier.
4) Sydney- Cats (0.6), Pies (0.8), Giants (0.7), Saints (0.85), Suns (0.95)- despite being favourites in all of those games there's a roughly 73% chance they will lose at least one game. Practically speaking, this means that if we beat Hawthorn this week, we would most likely finish second even if we (unthinkably) then go on to lose 2 more games!
5) Richmond- Adelaide (0.6), Suns (0.95), Pies (0.8), Ess (0.85), North (0.55)- I think if anything, I've been generous towards Richmond! Even with these odds, they have a roughly 78% chance of losing at least one game.
TLDR- this weekend is crucial for our top 2 chances! Go Eagles!
- Thread starter
- #161
i love your pessimism , the only way is up after that
MWPP
Flying High
If 7th/8th is the lowest we can finish at this stage of the season (every other team bar Freo could finish lower!) we're doing very well
#halffull
- Sep 16, 2006
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I'm working on it. Not being negative, just saying we *could* finish that low.
If Richmond were to win all their remaining 5 games, it means we can only afford to drop 2 more to hold a top 4 position.
Fremantle looked poised to finish 1st, so coming 4th is not a terrible result. Knock them off week 1 at home and get a home prelim vs Swans most likely.
More than likely will have to play freo in the finals at some point, whether it is week 1 or the prelim.
See how we go these next two weeks, our biggest two challenges for the season.
Fremantle looked poised to finish 1st, so coming 4th is not a terrible result. Knock them off week 1 at home and get a home prelim vs Swans most likely.
More than likely will have to play freo in the finals at some point, whether it is week 1 or the prelim.
See how we go these next two weeks, our biggest two challenges for the season.
I am bullish too. I don't think we will lose at Subi. I think we will win all our remaining games ... if the Gov is back and we replace a hack or two from the 22. Hutchings and Hill need to go out after yesterday's performance.
- Thread starter
- #166
The loss to Hawthorn and the Draw to Gold Coast mean in the next 4 games without our 2 ruckmen and lecras we are on shaky ground . Could finish season in 6th if we lose 3 of next 4 . I seriously doubt we will beat freo , bulldogs and Adelaide are looking shaky and I feel like ep2006 . That draw might have well have been a loss .
God I want freo to lose so badly this week. I am sick of seeing dipshits like Mayne and Danielle Pearce downhill ski their way to victory against us.
Are they in form? They had a shit patch for the last few weeks, but managed to account for just about every team.
Failmantle supporters are claiming that Ross Lyin' is teaching his players how to play tempo footy when out to a big lead. Anyone think this is true or bullshit??
How do we stop them from winning? What can simpson muster?
Are they in form? They had a shit patch for the last few weeks, but managed to account for just about every team.
Failmantle supporters are claiming that Ross Lyin' is teaching his players how to play tempo footy when out to a big lead. Anyone think this is true or bullshit??
How do we stop them from winning? What can simpson muster?
- Thread starter
- #168
just typical freo get us when we are on the bones of our a..se . yeah could do with a win keep the gooey hawk fans at bay another week too.
I've got us finishing 4th with wins over Doggies & Saints, based on Freo, Sydney, Hawks, Richmond and Doggies winning every game too (except the one the doggies lose vs us).
Gotta be happy with the position we've got ourselves into.
Gotta be happy with the position we've got ourselves into.
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Hardhat11
Premiership Player
- Jun 19, 2015
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- #170
I think
We go 2-2 ...win v bullies and saints
We lose freo ....crows game is 50-50 ...will have Nic Nat Ne McGovern back for that game and the Adelaide oval holds no fears ...that's a day game also and I think we are better day team than a night time in the slippery dew which Adelaide oval games are renowned for
I would prefer we finish 3rd and get crack at Hawks ...but need to beat crows ......no one will give us a hope v Hawks and I feel this would then create a prelim in Perth ....where we roll the dice on go hell for leather
We go 2-2 ...win v bullies and saints
We lose freo ....crows game is 50-50 ...will have Nic Nat Ne McGovern back for that game and the Adelaide oval holds no fears ...that's a day game also and I think we are better day team than a night time in the slippery dew which Adelaide oval games are renowned for
I would prefer we finish 3rd and get crack at Hawks ...but need to beat crows ......no one will give us a hope v Hawks and I feel this would then create a prelim in Perth ....where we roll the dice on go hell for leather
How about the extra home game that comes with finishing 4th?
Finish 4th
Week 1 - Freo @ Subi, lose
Week 2 - Elim final @ Subi
Finish 5th
Week 1 - V 8th @ Subi, win
Week 2 - v Hawks at MCG
Round 20
Sydney (win) v Collingwood
Hawthorn (win) v Geelong
Bulldogs (win) v Melbourne
West Coast (win) v Fremantle
1. Fremantle (68)
2. Hawthorn (56)
3. West Coast (58)
4. Bulldogs (52)
5. Sydney (52)
Round 21
Hawthorn (win) v Port
Sydney (win) v GWS
Fremantle (win) v North
Bulldogs (win) v West Coast
1. Fremantle (72)
2. Hawthorn (60)
3. West Coast (58)
4. Bulldogs (56)
5. Sydney (56)
Round 22
Hawthorn (win) v Lions
Bulldogs (win) v North
Adelaide (win) v West Coast
Sydney (win) v St Kilda
Fremantle (win) v Melbourne
1. Fremantle (76)
2. Hawthorn (64)
3. Bulldogs (60)
4. Sydney (60)
5. West Coast (58)
Round 23
Bulldogs (win) v Lions
Fremantle (win) v Port
Hawthorn (win) v Carlton
Sydney (win) v Gold Coast
West Coast (win) v StKilda
1. Fremantle (80)
2. Hawthorn (68)
3. Bulldogs (64)
4. Sydney (64)
5. West Coast (62)
So.. we would need to loose 3 out of 4 games for us to drop out of the top 4 with Bulldogs and Sydney winning all of there games. Bulldogs have a pretty good chance to win all of there games, especially if they are good enough to get over us here. Sydney are a good chance to at least drop 1 game the way there playing so even if they win 3/4 and we only win 1/4 we will still finish fourth.
Sydney (win) v Collingwood
Hawthorn (win) v Geelong
Bulldogs (win) v Melbourne
West Coast (win) v Fremantle
1. Fremantle (68)
2. Hawthorn (56)
3. West Coast (58)
4. Bulldogs (52)
5. Sydney (52)
Round 21
Hawthorn (win) v Port
Sydney (win) v GWS
Fremantle (win) v North
Bulldogs (win) v West Coast
1. Fremantle (72)
2. Hawthorn (60)
3. West Coast (58)
4. Bulldogs (56)
5. Sydney (56)
Round 22
Hawthorn (win) v Lions
Bulldogs (win) v North
Adelaide (win) v West Coast
Sydney (win) v St Kilda
Fremantle (win) v Melbourne
1. Fremantle (76)
2. Hawthorn (64)
3. Bulldogs (60)
4. Sydney (60)
5. West Coast (58)
Round 23
Bulldogs (win) v Lions
Fremantle (win) v Port
Hawthorn (win) v Carlton
Sydney (win) v Gold Coast
West Coast (win) v StKilda
1. Fremantle (80)
2. Hawthorn (68)
3. Bulldogs (64)
4. Sydney (64)
5. West Coast (62)
So.. we would need to loose 3 out of 4 games for us to drop out of the top 4 with Bulldogs and Sydney winning all of there games. Bulldogs have a pretty good chance to win all of there games, especially if they are good enough to get over us here. Sydney are a good chance to at least drop 1 game the way there playing so even if they win 3/4 and we only win 1/4 we will still finish fourth.
I just can't see the dogs beating us over here. They play well at etihad, in controlled conditions, and a ground that suits their fast style of play. They won't be able to replicate that at Subi, we won't let them. I'd be surprised if they get within 6 golas of us.
