Autopsy 15-2-27 When will the damn wall burst?

Carringbush2010

Premiership Player
Joined
Jun 6, 2016
Posts
4,800
Location
Perth
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Pines Football Club
Thread starter #1
If you're an ingrained Collingwood supporter you'll know what the thread title implies.

You can go through any period in the history of the VFL/AFL and see the regular contending of or dominance of premiership seasons only to fall over in the big dance. Sine the start of this century alone we have figured in 5 grand finals out of 19 for only 1 win. That's better than a 25% strike rate to reach all grand finals since 2000. Only Hawthorn have equaled that

The above is a damning stat!

  • Played 44 grand finals out of 124 contested- that's 1 GF we play every 2.8 GF's. The nearest rivals Ess and Carlton have played 15 less each
  • 15 wins including 4 in a row
  • 2 draws (when favourites both times)
  • 27 losses (when favourites I don't know how may times!)
We keep contending finals and ultimately contend GF's for a very poor record, of course while it's possible we'll continue on this path of taunt it's highly likely we'll win more than 1 in every 3 if we keep contending.

Given last year was largely unexpected it is evident that we should be contending this year as a result of a very difficult system to defeat coupled with an abundance of versatility of the list that suits the game style so well. So it is not out of the question that we'll contest the big dance again this year.

According to some in the media, our members on BF and even opposition supporters - we've already got the cup. Yeah seen that before too many times to have any confidence in anyone's opinion - regardless of credential.

15-2-27 When will the damn wall burst?
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

jonbe54

Brownlow Medallist
Joined
Sep 18, 2009
Posts
14,512
Location
Rural paradise
AFL Club
Collingwood
#3
Luck does seem to run against us in the big dance.

Two off the top of my head . . .

1970 have the Bluze at our mercy in the grand final - Tuddy cleans up Macca who was ripping the Bluze a new one.

1979 . . . . . Harmes . . . . Grrrrrrrr.

Generally speaking if something can go wrong it will - and even if it can't go wrong it will.

However . . . .

That doesn't cover it by a long way, a history of turning players into demi gods and a tendency to peak too early - which is really only poor fitness people in the long run.

No matter how much you acknowledge bad luck - and it has certainly played it's part with our club - the various administrations and the culture of the club over a long period have contributed significantly to our pain as supporters.
 

PicaBoo

Soldaat van Oranje
Joined
Jul 2, 2015
Posts
7,642
Location
Holden Shower Center
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
What other teams?
#4
If you're an ingrained Collingwood supporter you'll know what the thread title implies.

You can go through any period in the history of the VFL/AFL and see the regular contending of or dominance of premiership seasons only to fall over in the big dance. Sine the start of this century alone we have figured in 5 grand finals out of 19 for only 1 win. That's better than a 25% strike rate to reach all grand finals since 2000. Only Hawthorn have equaled that

The above is a damning stat!

  • Played 44 grand finals out of 124 contested- that's 1 GF we play every 2.8 GF's. The nearest rivals Ess and Carlton have played 15 less each
  • 15 wins including 4 in a row
  • 2 draws (when favourites both times)
  • 27 losses (when favourites I don't know how may times!)
We keep contending finals and ultimately contend GF's for a very poor record, of course while it's possible we'll continue on this path of taunt it's highly likely we'll win more than 1 in every 3 if we keep contending.

Given last year was largely unexpected it is evident that we should be contending this year as a result of a very difficult system to defeat coupled with an abundance of versatility of the list that suits the game style so well. So it is not out of the question that we'll contest the big dance again this year.

According to some in the media, our members on BF and even opposition supporters - we've already got the cup. Yeah seen that before too many times to have any confidence in anyone's opinion - regardless of credential.

15-2-27 When will the damn wall burst?
Well , if it comes chosing between a generation that hasn't seen a flag like the Tigers or us coming close every so often, I would take the latter.
The GF in itself is an experience not to be missed.
And on the road to the GF, we can destroy dreams of back to back or laugh at other clubs that didn't even make it.
Not to mention every non Collingwood Victorian living in fear for days that it might be us :)
Winning it is of course the ultimate but give me hope over obscurity every day and twice on GF day.
 

Scodog10

Brownlow Medallist
Joined
Jul 25, 2008
Posts
17,417
Location
The Linc
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Oakland Raiders
#6
The more people talk about it the more likely it is to effect the future.

It's the placebo effect
Placebo effect?..

IMO, it’s a club culture. Similar to Carlton’s being arrogance, St Kilda’s losing, North being the battler etc.

Changing what is essentially a 60 year ingrained culture is something I can’t even begin to comprehend, but I think it starts with your off-field leaders not accepting or tolerating anything except the highest standards and that trickles down to the players. Off-field staff can be there for lengthy periods of time, there’s at least 10 blokes on the list who weren’t alive when Kevin Rose was president, but players have a finite amount of time to leave an impact.

I know he’s copped a lot of **** for his commentary on it, but CFC2010 is right Hawthorn have it spot on. Whatever it is that’s sets the tone for their culture we need to be better at it, IMO. Only 6 and a bit years ago they were in the exact same spot as us after a heartbreaking GF loss. They went on to win the next 3. We have the talent to win one with this group and possibly more so let’s hope the collective want it enough!
 

Carringbush2010

Premiership Player
Joined
Jun 6, 2016
Posts
4,800
Location
Perth
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Pines Football Club
Thread starter #7
We have the talent to win one with this group and possibly more so let’s hope the collective want it enough!
I'd argue the want has always been there, it's as you and CFC2010 say it's the sub conscious culture of the collective. That comes down to guidance from the development.You could argue the sub conscious of stk and haw is different and over time is ingrained, like ours we're always there but only collect silverware by weight of numbers.

Surely at some point if we keep getting to the big dance in less than every 3 then change must come by weight of numbers. That's my hope anyway.
 

Kappa

Brownlow Medallist
Joined
Oct 7, 2014
Posts
14,589
AFL Club
Collingwood
#8
Placebo effect?..

IMO, it’s a club culture. Similar to Carlton’s being arrogance, St Kilda’s losing, North being the battler etc.

Changing what is essentially a 60 year ingrained culture is something I can’t even begin to comprehend, but I think it starts with your off-field leaders not accepting or tolerating anything except the highest standards and that trickles down to the players. Off-field staff can be there for lengthy periods of time, there’s at least 10 blokes on the list who weren’t alive when Kevin Rose was president, but players have a finite amount of time to leave an impact.

I know he’s copped a lot of **** for his commentary on it, but CFC2010 is right Hawthorn have it spot on. Whatever it is that’s sets the tone for their culture we need to be better at it, IMO. Only 6 and a bit years ago they were in the exact same spot as us after a heartbreaking GF loss. They went on to win the next 3. We have the talent to win one with this group and possibly more so let’s hope the collective want it enough!
Culture is a dynamic thing, it constantly changes depending on who you have at your club and who the leaders are. Our culture compared to 7-8 years ago when we had Didak Shaw Swan Thomas Wellingham Johnson ect ect is vastly different to what it is now. Buckley even changed the culture last year when he completely changed his coaching strategy and tried to make the club a much happier and enjoyable place. To sit here and try and say our culture is influenced by things that happened 30/40/50 years ago is rubbish.

There may of been a time in the past when Collingwood choked in grand finals, but it has no impact on our 2018/19 team, unless that is, people constantly tell them that Collingwood choke in grand finals, and then in their sub-conscious they make start to believe it... The placebo effect.

Also, if you assume Collingwood has a 50% chance at winning every Grand Final, going 15-27 certainty isn't that unlikely. There's no "culture" of losing grand finals. Have you ever thought "wow these Carlton players are so much more arrogant than other players!"... No, because that doesn't exist. It's a generic supporter stereotype, the players that take the field don't play more arrogantly than any other club.

(And yes, club culture is a real and important thing but it changes yearly, it's not based on the past)
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

ottoman

Norm Smith Medallist
Joined
May 13, 2014
Posts
6,676
Location
Istanbul
AFL Club
Collingwood
#12
The amount of grand finals we have made is extraordinary.
The amount we have lost is sadly even more extraordinary.
But here's the thing. We have made it to the grand final on so many occasions where no one expected us to. Last year is another example. We have to keep this in mind when we talk about our loses. In many of those years it was an incredible effort to just get there.
For me 2011 hurts. Such a dominant team. We ended the home and away season with a percentage of approximately 185. We were by far the best team, a dominant team, but alas. Still ****s me to this day. Last year I am already over. We performed admirably considering injuries etc. And let's be honest we were outplayed for 3 quarters. It was an achievement to be proud of despite not getting the cup.
2011...still ****s me.
 

jonbe54

Brownlow Medallist
Joined
Sep 18, 2009
Posts
14,512
Location
Rural paradise
AFL Club
Collingwood
#13
The amount of grand finals we have made is extraordinary.
The amount we have lost is sadly even more extraordinary.
But here's the thing. We have made it to the grand final on so many occasions where no one expected us to. Last year is another example. We have to keep this in mind when we talk about our loses. In many of those years it was an incredible effort to just get there.
For me 2011 hurts. Such a dominant team. We ended the home and away season with a percentage of approximately 185. We were by far the best team, a dominant team, but alas. Still ****s me to this day. Last year I am already over. We performed admirably considering injuries etc. And let's be honest we were outplayed for 3 quarters. It was an achievement to be proud of despite not getting the cup.
2011...still ****s me.
Agreed otto - there are lies . . . DAMN LIES . . . and statistics!!!!

'58 is a prime example of being in a GF we had no right to be in considering our squad - that one didn't get away.

Last year was another example of overperformance to the max. Deeply disappointed to have missed by so little but overpoweringly proud of the kids that got us there.

Those that aren't . . . . well it's not worth talking about.
 

noideaatall

Club Legend
Joined
May 14, 2011
Posts
2,088
Location
geeveston
AFL Club
Collingwood
#14
The amount of grand finals we have made is extraordinary.
The amount we have lost is sadly even more extraordinary.
But here's the thing. We have made it to the grand final on so many occasions where no one expected us to. Last year is another example. We have to keep this in mind when we talk about our loses. In many of those years it was an incredible effort to just get there.
For me 2011 hurts. Such a dominant team. We ended the home and away season with a percentage of approximately 185. We were by far the best team, a dominant team, but alas. Still ****s me to this day. Last year I am already over. We performed admirably considering injuries etc. And let's be honest we were outplayed for 3 quarters. It was an achievement to be proud of despite not getting the cup.
2011...still ****s me.
Spot on. I wonder if the journey to the grand final has taken too much out of us emotionally and physically in a number of series and, in reality, we were actually over performing to get there rather than under performing on gf day. Last year it looked to me like our gf was the prelim. 2011 the prelim remains one of the hardest games I have ever seen and I have no doubt it took its toll on gf day.
 

Saintly Viewed

bear time
Joined
Aug 10, 2015
Posts
44,905
AFL Club
Collingwood
#15
Let’s have a fun look at more recent grand finals lost and surmise about which we lost when we should have won on talent....

  • 2018 we more realistically the third best team behind WCE and Richmond (probably should have lost GF by 3 goals or so, might effort overall. (Great shame is we could have sneaked an unlikely flag.) We played Eagles three times in 2018 losing each time.
  • 2011 against the Geelong era; no doubt we were clear second best team but I’m a little different to others and go back to a simple view, we played them three times and lost each time, they bested us each time.
  • 2003 in my view Brisbane were far superior, unsure why we were notional favourites but weight of Collingwood money likely influencing the odds.
  • 2002 as per last year, just an incredible effort. Nathan Buckley almost carried us to the flag in an almighty GF game. A few if only... like last season, we were amazing to get there.
  • 1981 again we were battlers working as a team, all good till about 3/4 time. That horrible team too good.
  • 1980 amazing getting to GF from elimination final (final 5 system; still the best ever finals system) but Tigers way too powerful.
  • 1979 team of battlers playing as a team, almost pinched it, the rain and boggy ground helped us, great shame but again no way we were best side that year.
  • 1977 that draw. Carman. What did you do Carman, like an opera tragedy you tucked away yourself for a two games suspension. Yes a flag that we should have secured. Deserving of being called best team that year overall. This one was painful.
  • 1970 no talking about this one. Best team and poor kicking for goal, friendly fire and all that. Our most tragic ever game.
  • 1966 close game.... either or, shame but they were darn good too as I’m told.
  • 1964 another sad loss though Melbourne were stars.
Summation:

Really only two losses could be fairly viewed as thrown away flags.
Though other games could have been won as well, often we just didn’t have enough ammunition.


(1958 is the one flag we did snare against the grain.)
 

Drought Break

Senior List
Joined
May 5, 2015
Posts
222
AFL Club
Collingwood
#16
For some reason our better players seem to go missing in the Grand Finals . Pendles, Sidebottom, Treloar and Grundy chose the worse day of the year to have there "off" day. Swan played below his average in all his grand finals, Pendles not his best in 2011, etc etc. Maybe elevating our stars to Demi Gods by our supporter base could be playing a part.
 

Scodog10

Brownlow Medallist
Joined
Jul 25, 2008
Posts
17,417
Location
The Linc
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Oakland Raiders
#17
I'd argue the want has always been there, it's as you and CFC2010 say it's the sub conscious culture of the collective. That comes down to guidance from the development.You could argue the sub conscious of stk and haw is different and over time is ingrained, like ours we're always there but only collect silverware by weight of numbers.

Surely at some point if we keep getting to the big dance in less than every 3 then change must come by weight of numbers. That's my hope anyway.
I can’t agree or disagree that the want is there. All I’ll say is that I’m sure if you asked the squad mid 2011 whether it was there they’d have unanimously said yes, but afterwards a number admitted they weren’t as hungry. It’s only something you can gauge after the fact, IMO.

I think believing weight of numbers will mean the damn wall breaks eventually is a poor mindset. It’s when complacency creeps in.
 

Saintly Viewed

bear time
Joined
Aug 10, 2015
Posts
44,905
AFL Club
Collingwood
#18
For some reason our better players seem to go missing in the Grand Finals . Pendles, Sidebottom, Treloar and Grundy chose the worse day of the year to have there "off" day. Swan played below his average in all his grand finals, Pendles not his best in 2011, etc etc. Maybe elevating our stars to Demi Gods by our supporter base could be playing a part.
Elevating players... all sides do it.*
Not sure I buy into that.
Last season West Coast, to their credit, were adept at countering Grundy particularly and did great work on Sidebottom as an example. (Sidebottom usually slays them in finals so he was a big loss on the big day.)

Unfortunately our players who had off days didn’t manage to work their way back enough.


* back in the day when we had the social club at Victoria Park, there were a group of girls who just made beer lines to the players....

All clubs have their players elevated, people want to know them, tell them they are wonderful.... how they handle that and manage being smart about the adulation, goes a long way....
 

doppleganger

Brownlow Medallist
Joined
Jun 4, 2005
Posts
16,145
Location
Putney
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Collingwood
#19
Culture is just a load of sh1te.

Hawthorn dominated the 80s because they had an amazing team due to their advantageous zone.

Hawthorn in the 2010s then took advantage of the system, priority picks before first round, and smartly traded out of the compromised drafts to assemble teams that were better than the rest.

Same with Geelong, they drafted well and then lucked out with advantageous father son rules to further assert their advantage. Having the entire surf coast and Geelong region as their own also helps them retain players.

Since 1980 Collingwood haven’t lost any GFs due to a poor culture

1980, finished 5th and Richmond beat us in both H&A games including a touch up at VicPark. We did well to even make the GF.

1981 - missing out on minor premiership hurt us. Losing to Cats early meant we played finals every week whilst Carlton sat back and were fresh. That killed us in the last quarter when Carlton ran over the top...

2002 - a solid team that had a massive finals series, almost pinched one against a superstar team

2003 - when Rocca was rubbed out we were shot

2010 - the draw was horrific, wasted so many chances in Q2, which was pretty normal for us that year actually, but dig deep and held on once the momentum swung. If we had a poor culture we would have capitulated

2011 - best team all year except against Geelong. We limped to the line and scrapped through our finals where Geelong was smashing teams.

2018 - WC beat us at the G earlier in the year, found a way again in the QF and to be fair nobody gave us a chance to even get past Richmond in the PF

More often than not we quite simply haven’t been the best team, often not even in top2...we have done well to even qualify for the GF on many occasions.
 

Kappa

Brownlow Medallist
Joined
Oct 7, 2014
Posts
14,589
AFL Club
Collingwood
#20
The amount of grand finals we have made is extraordinary.
The amount we have lost is sadly even more extraordinary.
But here's the thing. We have made it to the grand final on so many occasions where no one expected us to. Last year is another example. We have to keep this in mind when we talk about our loses. In many of those years it was an incredible effort to just get there.
For me 2011 hurts. Such a dominant team. We ended the home and away season with a percentage of approximately 185. We were by far the best team, a dominant team, but alas. Still ****s me to this day. Last year I am already over. We performed admirably considering injuries etc. And let's be honest we were outplayed for 3 quarters. It was an achievement to be proud of despite not getting the cup.
2011...still ****s me.
There's nothing extraordinary about 15-27. If you flip a coin 42 times it's entirely within normal distribution to get results like that.
 

Mkcaptain

Norm Smith Medallist
Joined
Mar 2, 2011
Posts
8,352
Location
Melbourne
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Bushrangers
#21
Is there anything Buckley and the coaching group would have learnt from last year's Grand Final week and match that they'd do differently if we were to make the Grand Final this year. Did we embrace the hype of the week too much? Were some players emotionally spent before the game? Would they be more prepared to take a risk on a 50% fit player like Darcy Moore in 2019?

Tactically of course there are things we could have done differently during the match but I'm talking more about Grand Final specific lessons rather than general football improvements.
 

Saintly Viewed

bear time
Joined
Aug 10, 2015
Posts
44,905
AFL Club
Collingwood
#22
Culture is just a load of sh1te.

Hawthorn dominated the 80s because they had an amazing team due to their advantageous zone.

Hawthorn in the 2010s then took advantage of the system, priority picks before first round, and smartly traded out of the compromised drafts to assemble teams that were better than the rest.

Same with Geelong, they drafted well and then lucked out with advantageous father son rules to further assert their advantage. Having the entire surf coast and Geelong region as their own also helps them retain players.

Since 1980 Collingwood haven’t lost any GFs due to a poor culture

1980, finished 5th and Richmond beat us in both H&A games including a touch up at VicPark. We did well to even make the GF.

1981 - missing out on minor premiership hurt us. Losing to Cats early meant we played finals every week whilst Carlton sat back and were fresh. That killed us in the last quarter when Carlton ran over the top...

2002 - a solid team that had a massive finals series, almost pinched one against a superstar team

2003 - when Rocca was rubbed out we were shot

2010 - the draw was horrific, wasted so many chances in Q2, which was pretty normal for us that year actually, but dig deep and held on once the momentum swung. If we had a poor culture we would have capitulated

2011 - best team all year except against Geelong. We limped to the line and scrapped through our finals where Geelong was smashing teams.

2018 - WC beat us at the G earlier in the year, found a way again in the QF and to be fair nobody gave us a chance to even get past Richmond in the PF

More often than not we quite simply haven’t been the best team, often not even in top2...we have done well to even qualify for the GF on many occasions.
So well summed up.

Elite players, A grade players go a long long way to making a team the best and hence the most chance of being premiers. When they get that, amazing how good culture becomes.

That said, clubs have to have a degree of harmony and being well run, but that’s a side matter.

Win flags, culture becomes fantastic in my view.

Our big opportunity in the next few seasons is if our players quality remains and goes up to levels of A grade and beyond.

Grundy, De Goey, Pendlebury, Beames, Sidebottom, Stephenson, Treloar, a fit Elliott plus potentially others gives us some strong hope....

Up to them now.
 

Carringbush2010

Premiership Player
Joined
Jun 6, 2016
Posts
4,800
Location
Perth
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Pines Football Club
Thread starter #23
There's been a few mentions of us getting there when really we shouldn't have, fair call. Could say the say for WC 2018, Tigs 2017, Dogs 2016 difference is they won theirs when the chance arose.

Also, there's been a few dominant teams that got there that should've won but didn't

70
77
Fairly evens for 81 IMO
Possibly 66

But we lost all of those.

Logic will tell that the numbers will eventually force result, if we keep getting there the odds are we'll win eventually.

Like I said, there is a good chance we'll get there this year and we could be a dominant team. That will be the 45th appearance if we do, another chance to win it.
 

Quicky

Premium Platinum
Joined
May 27, 2008
Posts
19,746
Location
Wherever I May Roam
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Socceroos, Melbourne Victory
#24
Culture is just a load of sh1te.

Hawthorn dominated the 80s because they had an amazing team due to their advantageous zone.

Hawthorn in the 2010s then took advantage of the system, priority picks before first round, and smartly traded out of the compromised drafts to assemble teams that were better than the rest.

Same with Geelong, they drafted well and then lucked out with advantageous father son rules to further assert their advantage. Having the entire surf coast and Geelong region as their own also helps them retain players.

Since 1980 Collingwood haven’t lost any GFs due to a poor culture

1980, finished 5th and Richmond beat us in both H&A games including a touch up at VicPark. We did well to even make the GF.

1981 - missing out on minor premiership hurt us. Losing to Cats early meant we played finals every week whilst Carlton sat back and were fresh. That killed us in the last quarter when Carlton ran over the top...

2002 - a solid team that had a massive finals series, almost pinched one against a superstar team

2003 - when Rocca was rubbed out we were shot

2010 - the draw was horrific, wasted so many chances in Q2, which was pretty normal for us that year actually, but dig deep and held on once the momentum swung. If we had a poor culture we would have capitulated

2011 - best team all year except against Geelong. We limped to the line and scrapped through our finals where Geelong was smashing teams.

2018 - WC beat us at the G earlier in the year, found a way again in the QF and to be fair nobody gave us a chance to even get past Richmond in the PF

More often than not we quite simply haven’t been the best team, often not even in top2...we have done well to even qualify for the GF on many occasions.
The question would then be why are we not able to assemble the best team? How do we change that?

Two things that spring to mind to me are better injury management and key position recruitment.

We have had good teams that have had unfortunate injuries. Noting the administration has tried to address this, Davoren was given the flick, although you could argue whether enough has been done.

We have failed to focus enough attention on key position recruitment and when we have we have often gotten it wrong. This is easy to point out in retrospect of course but if we had made some different decisions we might be in a better position. There's calls like McLarty over B. Cox. Or failing to see value in Ben Brown. Sticking by incumbents like Cloke for too long. Or injury prone players. Get a few of those decisions going your way and the talent on our list might be elevated to a level where we arent failing because of a lack of talent in key areas.

There could be other areas to focus on too but those are the ones that stick out to me.
 

Kappa

Brownlow Medallist
Joined
Oct 7, 2014
Posts
14,589
AFL Club
Collingwood
#25
There's been a few mentions of us getting there when really we shouldn't have, fair call. Could say the say for WC 2018, Tigs 2017, Dogs 2016 difference is they won theirs when the chance arose.

Also, there's been a few dominant teams that got there that should've won but didn't

70
77
Fairly evens for 81 IMO
Possibly 66

But we lost all of those.

Logic will tell that the numbers will eventually force result, if we keep getting there the odds are we'll win eventually.

Like I said, there is a good chance we'll get there this year and we could be a dominant team. That will be the 45th appearance if we do, another chance to win it.
Worth remembering we only beat one top 8 side last year during the H&A and this year our fixture is significantly harder.

We're in the hunt for the top 4 along with 5-6 other top teams imo. Melbourne Richmond and WCE will be damn hard to beat
 
Top Bottom