Autopsy 15-2-27 When will the damn wall burst?

Kappa

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The question would then be why are we not able to assemble the best team? How do we change that?

Two things that spring to mind to me are better injury management and key position recruitment.

We have had good teams that have had unfortunate injuries. Noting the administration has tried to address this, Davoren was given the flick, although you could argue whether enough has been done.

We have failed to focus enough attention on key position recruitment and when we have we have often gotten it wrong. This is easy to point out in retrospect of course but if we had made some different decisions we might be in a better position. There's calls like McLarty over B. Cox. Or failing to see value in Ben Brown. Sticking by incumbents like Cloke for too long. Or injury prone players. Get a few of those decisions going your way and the talent on our list might be elevated to a level where we arent failing because of a lack of talent in key areas.

There could be other areas to focus on too but those are the ones that stick out to me.
Yep, we've focused way too heavily on recruiting/trading in midfielders and it's left us in a big hole KPP wise. We're extremely lucky Dunn played as good as he did and some of our other medium sized defenders stood up big time (Langdon) because if that didn't go our way our defence would've been ripped apart weekly. Now in 2019 we're basically relying on Dunn coming back from an ACL at 31 in good form, Cox becoming a consistent number 1 forward and Moore's body holding together. Bringing in Roughhead is another "oh **** we have no depth" moment.

If Dunn struggles post ACL (likely) and Moore has another injury prone year we probably have bottom 4 in terms of KPP players and an elite midfield trying to pull it all together
 

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Carringbush2010

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Worth remembering we only beat one top 8 side last year during the H&A and this year our fixture is significantly harder.

We're in the hunt for the top 4 along with 5-6 other top teams imo. Melbourne Richmond and WCE will be damn hard to beat
Also worth remembering that we beat form teams that had wins or were on streaks like Ess, Melb, North etc.

Just because a team is not top 8 at the time does not mean they're not in form - reaffirms the closeness of the comp IMO
 

Kappa

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Also worth remembering that we beat form teams that had wins or were on streaks like Ess, Melb, North etc.

Just because a team is not top 8 at the time does not mean they're not in form - reaffirms the closeness of the comp IMO
Beating Essendon and North in 2018 is not exactly something that impressive... We had a great finals campaign but most of 2018 we struggled against the good teams.
 

Carringbush2010

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Beating Essendon and North in 2018 is not exactly something that impressive... We had a great finals campaign but most of 2018 we struggled against the good teams.
We beat Ess when they were on top of the form ladder at the time, what else do you want? Think you're being a bit dismissive of the opposition we beat when we beat them.
 

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Beating Essendon and North in 2018 is not exactly something that impressive... We had a great finals campaign but most of 2018 we struggled against the good teams.
Not withstanding your optimism, I’m confused, we had a great finals series but we struggled against the good teams?

Beating Richmond, GWS and Melbourne during the year, and just losing to WCE twice doesn’t indicate struggle.

I Think it’s fair to say we were the third best side last year.

But regardless it all starts again. But we can certainly be comfortable that we are able to compete with anyone.
Just have to do the business now.
 

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We beat Ess when they were on top of the form ladder at the time, what else do you want? Think you're being a bit dismissive of the opposition we beat when we beat them.
I agree there; Essendon, Melbourne, (even Adelaide early on) were all carving them up that they were chunky.
We came, we destroyed them, we curtailed them.
 

Kappa

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Not withstanding your optimism, I’m confused, we had a great finals series but we struggled against the good teams?

Beating Richmond, GWS and Melbourne during the year, and just losing to WCE twice doesn’t indicate struggle.

I Think it’s fair to say we were the third best side last year.

But regardless it all starts again. But we can certainly be comfortable that we are able to compete with anyone.
Just have to do the business now.
As I said during the H&A season

Lost by 34 to Hawthorn
Lost by 26 to GWS
Lost by 43 to Richmond
Lost by 21 to Geelong
Beat Melbourne by 42
Lost by 35 to West Coast
Lost by 38 to Richmond
Lost by 2 to Sydney

(1-7 record against top 8 teams)

Finals:
Lost by 16 to West Coast
Beat GWS by 10
Beat Richmond by 39

Lost by 5 to West Coast

(2-2 record)

Overall its a 3-9 record against the top 8, so we certainly still have something to prove. No doubt we wouldn't of made the top 4 last year without an easy draw
 

doppleganger

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The question would then be why are we not able to assemble the best team? How do we change that?
Well since the VFL introduction of country zones in the 60s the ‘super’ teams have been the ones advantages by the league.

Hawthorn, Carlton, Richmond were the teams with the best country zones...unsurprisingly they won basically all the flags in the late 60s through to early 80s.

Throw in North who went hardest with the 10 year rule.

Late 80s it was still Hawthorn enjoying the spoils of the zones.

Then the 90s and along came WestCoast with their overly generous start up concessions.

North who lucked out in picking up Carey and Longmire.

It took clubs like Carlton and Essendon to revert to salary cap cheating to win, and a team with champions everywhere in Geelong kept losing GFs.

Then the 2000s started with the salary cap assisted Lions dominating and then finished with some priority picks and father son teams from Melbourne dominant (of which we were one!).

Culture is just bullsh1t.

Hawthorn were given a golden zone, Melbourne were shafted...it meant that from the mid 60s Melbourne were rubbish whilst Hawthorn flourished.

Pies getting Western Districts was a meh zone...but we continued to compete.

We have failed to focus enough attention on key position recruitment and when we have we have often gotten it wrong. This is easy to point out in retrospect of course but if we had made some different decisions we might be in a better position. There's calls like McLarty over B. Cox. Or failing to see value in Ben Brown. Sticking by incumbents like Cloke for too long. Or injury prone players. Get a few of those decisions going your way and the talent on our list might be elevated to a level where we arent failing because of a lack of talent in key areas.

There could be other areas to focus on too but those are the ones that stick out to me.
Yeah if you have top 10 picks but they end up busts like Freeman and Scharenberg, compared to a club getting Buddy and Roughy...of course you will battle.

But it is pretty simple...since the 60s, the league has rarely been a level playing field and it is the teams who enjoyed the better zones, start up concessions, priority pick and father son advantage or simply a larger salary cap that have tended to win flags.

Late 2000s, Pies benefiting from Priority Picks (Daisy and Pendles), getting Cloke on the cheap and we were spending more than basically all other clubs on our footy department...finally we had an advantage and we turned it into our big run from 07-12 where we were consistently back in top4.

But then the AFL introduces the footy department tax.

Pretty simple concept, if certain teams have greater access to the talented players they will do better....it ain’t dribble about a ‘winning culture’.
 

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Well since the VFL introduction of country zones in the 60s the ‘super’ teams have been the ones advantages by the league.

Hawthorn, Carlton, Richmond were the teams with the best country zones...unsurprisingly they won basically all the flags in the late 60s through to early 80s.

Throw in North who went hardest with the 10 year rule.

Late 80s it was still Hawthorn enjoying the spoils of the zones.

Then the 90s and along came WestCoast with their overly generous start up concessions.

North who lucked out in picking up Carey and Longmire.

It took clubs like Carlton and Essendon to revert to salary cap cheating to win, and a team with champions everywhere in Geelong kept losing GFs.

Then the 2000s started with the salary cap assisted Lions dominating and then finished with some priority picks and father son teams from Melbourne dominant (of which we were one!).

Culture is just bullsh1t.

Hawthorn were given a golden zone, Melbourne were shafted...it meant that from the mid 60s Melbourne were rubbish whilst Hawthorn flourished.

Pies getting Western Districts was a meh zone...but we continued to compete.


Yeah if you have top 10 picks but they end up busts like Freeman and Scharenberg, compared to a club getting Buddy and Roughy...of course you will battle.

But it is pretty simple...since the 60s, the league has rarely been a level playing field and it is the teams who enjoyed the better zones, start up concessions, priority pick and father son advantage or simply a larger salary cap that have tended to win flags.

Late 2000s, Pies benefiting from Priority Picks (Daisy and Pendles), getting Cloke on the cheap and we were spending more than basically all other clubs on our footy department...finally we had an advantage and we turned it into our big run from 07-12 where we were consistently back in top4.

But then the AFL introduces the footy department tax.

Pretty simple concept, if certain teams have greater access to the talented players they will do better....it ain’t dribble about a ‘winning culture’.
Nobody got as shafted as St Kilda with the zones.
 

35Daicos

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Overall its a 3-9 record against the top 8, so we certainly still have something to prove. No doubt we wouldn't of made the top 4 last year without an easy draw
I just don't know why you think this is worth bringing up again! We had to put up with hearing this most of the way through last season, but once we'd beaten GWS and dismantled Richmond in the finals I'd have thought most of the knockers would have gone quiet! We didn't quite get to take home the cup, but did a phenomenal job with an injury ravaged side. We kept going no matter what was thrown at us, and I'm confident that even with a "tougher draw" we'll do well in 2019.
 

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There's been a few mentions of us getting there when really we shouldn't have, fair call. Could say the say for WC 2018, Tigs 2017, Dogs 2016 difference is they won theirs when the chance arose.

Also, there's been a few dominant teams that got there that should've won but didn't

70
77
Fairly evens for 81 IMO
Possibly 66

But we lost all of those.

Logic will tell that the numbers will eventually force result, if we keep getting there the odds are we'll win eventually.

Like I said, there is a good chance we'll get there this year and we could be a dominant team. That will be the 45th appearance if we do, another chance to win it.
All the coaches and club can do is provide the framework, the players are the ammunition but the war is governed by 'moments' . . . win enough of those moments and you win the big dance.

Logic leads us to believe the more often you get to the big dance the more often you have the chance to seize those moments.

If the club has been guilty of anything over the long term it is a failure to convert enough of those moments into flags.

It's a chancy thing that operates in a time frame of millisecond decisions so using logic again leads me to believe that the side with more 'natural' footballers that have good football instincts has more chance of making those correct decisions.
 

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doppleganger

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Nobody got as shafted as St Kilda with the zones.
But yeah, they have a ‘losing’ culture and the Hawks a ‘winning’ culture.

Pahleaese, give the Saints Frankston to Morwell in Gippsland as their ‘zone’ and they too would have a ‘winning’ culture.

Throw the Hawks Western District league like the Pies got....and they ain’t playing in all those GFs in the 80s.
 

jonbe54

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But yeah, they have a ‘losing’ culture and the Hawks a ‘winning’ culture.

Pahleaese, give the Saints Frankston to Morwell in Gippsland as their ‘zone’ and they too would have a ‘winning’ culture.

Throw the Hawks Western District league like the Pies got....and they ain’t playing in all those GFs in the 80s.
Having finals matches played at Siberia park was also a huge advantage
 

35Daicos

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Played 44 grand finals out of 124 contested- that's 1 GF we play every 2.8 GF's. The nearest rivals Ess and Carlton have played 15 less each
  • 15 wins including 4 in a row
  • 2 draws (when favourites both times)
  • 27 losses (when favourites I don't know how may times!)
There's been 123 Grand Finals played (including the 3 GF Replays):
1548583551962.png
 

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But yeah, they have a ‘losing’ culture and the Hawks a ‘winning’ culture.

Pahleaese, give the Saints Frankston to Morwell in Gippsland as their ‘zone’ and they too would have a ‘winning’ culture.

Throw the Hawks Western District league like the Pies got....and they ain’t playing in all those GFs in the 80s.
Correct!

And hawthorn almost went down the gurgler that time with that merger time.
Culture got them to the precipice no doubt.
 

35Daicos

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These figures show the number of years in which clubs have played finals, played Grand Finals, won Grand Finals etc.:
1548585911936.png

Two of Essendon's premiership wins came in the years when no Grand Final was played (1897 & 1924).
 

Gone Critical

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Well since the VFL introduction of country zones in the 60s the ‘super’ teams have been the ones advantages by the league.

Hawthorn, Carlton, Richmond were the teams with the best country zones...unsurprisingly they won basically all the flags in the late 60s through to early 80s.

Throw in North who went hardest with the 10 year rule.

Late 80s it was still Hawthorn enjoying the spoils of the zones.

Then the 90s and along came WestCoast with their overly generous start up concessions.

North who lucked out in picking up Carey and Longmire.
It's an interesting thread but sometimes some of the truths around the VFL/AFL do grow legs. The influence of the country zones which ran from 68-86 fit that group.

I think there is no doubt Hawthorn in particular did well with the growth of the Mornington Peninsula population and their metro zone being the green leafy suburbs with all the private schools as well. Carlton also benefited from the Bendigo area but that alone goes nowhere near explaining their successes from 1968.

Country zoning came in in 1968 when the country leagues were divided into 12 zones and clubs picked a zone out of the premiership cup. They were meant to rotate after 3 seasons but this didn't happen. We had the Western border area which wasn't much of a zone but did give us Billy Picken. Someone above mentioned the Western District as our area which isn't correct, most of that area was in Fitzroy zone.

Richmonds flag success in 67,69, 73 and 74 had little to do with their zone. Even by 74 only Merve Keane and Daryl Cumming came from the Sunraysia area. In fact given it only came round at the end of 68 I think we can conclude it really had little to do with Carlton and Richmond winning all the flags between 67-74. You could argue Lee and Weightman helped Richmonds 80 flag but the Sunraysia wasn't a big advantage to the Tigers.

Hawks overall were the big winners.

As to North getting Carey and Longmire they were NSW players zoned to Sydney who Greg Millar at North was astute enough to trade for with giving little away. Nothing to do with the zones.
 
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Gone Critical

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Nobody got as shafted as St Kilda with the zones.
This is definitely a myth for their country zone. Ballarat would have had to be one of the better zones. Think of Joffa Cunningham, Gregg Burns, Danny Frawley and Plugger who used to car pool down from Ballarat to training in the 80s. Think of Ballarat locals who won B&Fs, Gellie, Kiel, Dunne as well as 3 of the car poolers. Malty also was a Ballarat boy who went to the Saints. Grea zone. They got squeezed a bit when country zoning came in with regards to the Mornington Peninsula but they still had good bayside suburbs. They got a great country zone so can't cry for them. Their problems are their own making.
 

Kappa

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I just don't know why you think this is worth bringing up again! We had to put up with hearing this most of the way through last season, but once we'd beaten GWS and dismantled Richmond in the finals I'd have thought most of the knockers would have gone quiet! We didn't quite get to take home the cup, but did a phenomenal job with an injury ravaged side. We kept going no matter what was thrown at us, and I'm confident that even with a "tougher draw" we'll do well in 2019.
We went 2 wins 2 losses in the finals, it won't go away until we beat those teams in 2019. Yes, the Richmond prelim was a fantastic victory, but overall our season wasn't that great against top 8 teams. That's just the facts
 
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This is definitely a myth for their country zone. Ballarat would have had to be one of the better zones. Think of Joffa Cunningham, Gregg Burns, Danny Frawley and Plugger who used to car pool down from Ballarat to training in the 80s. Think of Ballarat locals who won B&Fs, Gellie, Kiel, Dunne as well as 3 of the car poolers. Malty also was a Ballarat boy who went to the Saints. Grea zone. They got squeezed a bit when country zoning came in with regards to the Mornington Peninsula but they still had good bayside suburbs. They got a great country zone so can't cry for them. Their problems are their own making.
Obviously Lockett aside (all time elite superstar) the rest don’t fill a list of greats. Maybe Frawley was an extra good stopper and player, but not filling a forward with dread.
The rest seem nice players.
Malthouse just a good player really.
Gellie sorry very basic and even worse coach as I recall.
Be that as it may,
Every club in that era had terrific players, but Hawthorn seemed to have lots more.

True St Kilda were the least of professional clubs circa late 70s and 80s but when they had a litany of stars late 60s early 70s they did quite nicely, including 3 grand finals and that 1 win.
 

Gone Critical

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But yeah, they have a ‘losing’ culture and the Hawks a ‘winning’ culture.

Pahleaese, give the Saints Frankston to Morwell in Gippsland as their ‘zone’ and they too would have a ‘winning’ culture.

Throw the Hawks Western District league like the Pies got....and they ain’t playing in all those GFs in the 80s.
Nah. While the country zones were operating Saints had Ballarat boys win 9 B&Fs, they got Plugger, Frawley, Cunningham, Burns, Gellie, Malthouse, Dunne, Peter Keil at a minimum. Hawks go some good one but Saints did ok, clearly better than us.
 

Gone Critical

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Obviously Lockett aside (all time elite superstar) the rest don’t fill a list of greats. Maybe Frawley was an extra good stopper and player, but not filling a forward with dread.
The rest seem nice players.
Malthouse just a good player really.
Gellie sorry very basic and even worse coach as I recall.
Be that as it may,
Every club in that era had terrific players, but Hawthorn seemed to have lots more.

True St Kilda were the least of professional clubs circa late 70s and 80s but when they had a litany of stars late 60s early 70s they did quite nicely, including 3 grand finals and that 1 win.
Cmon Gregg Burns was very good, 2X B&F. Geoff Cunningham 200+ games on the wing tough and very good. Gellie won a B&F in his first season then did a knee and hardly played again. Jeff Dunne dual B&F, played for Victoria. Chuck in Robbie Muir also

If you reckon Saints got stitched up in country zones put up lists of players from other zones clearly better than that list. You will struggle to get more than a few. Collingwood would be a mile behind for a start.
 

Gone Critical

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My view on Collingwood over the seasons is bar 70 and 77 there are few of our losing GF side that should have won. If anything we have sides who give their all but have lacked enough elite talent so just fall short.

2018 was definitely of that ilk but also was one of the hardest to take. We had a real chance to pinch a flag when we were well off being the dominant team of the comp and it was nearly so sweet. I agree with Kappa in that we are still a bit off the top teams potentially. 2018 probably flattered us in the end when we made the most of a very kind draw. It has given us a base though if we can step up again. With this comp that remains a big if. We struggled with the better teams and still have a gap to bridge. Recent season have shown plenty of teams who go close but fall away quickly. Hopefully we won't but we need to get a fair bit better. Moore and Elliott give me hope and I also hope the seasons of Thomas, WHE and a few others were stepping stones not one offs. Hopefully we take the big steps in 2019
 

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My view on Collingwood over the seasons is bar 70 and 77 there are few of our losing GF side that should have won. If anything we have sides who give their all but have lacked enough elite talent so just fall short.

2018 was definitely of that ilk but also was one of the hardest to take. We had a real chance to pinch a flag when we were well off being the dominant team of the comp and it was nearly so sweet. I agree with Kappa in that we are still a bit off the top teams potentially. 2018 probably flattered us in the end when we made the most of a very kind draw. It has given us a base though if we can step up again. With this comp that remains a big if. We struggled with the better teams and still have a gap to bridge. Recent season have shown plenty of teams who go close but fall away quickly. Hopefully we won't but we need to get a fair bit better. Moore and Elliott give me hope and I also hope the seasons of Thomas, WHE and a few others were stepping stones not one offs. Hopefully we take the big steps in 2019


And in that final paragraph I think you've summarised why we all love the footy and keep turning up to support our great club. We have a base of young players to enjoy as they develop, we have some out and out champs who we'd love to see win a flag and we've got a couple of matchwinners coming back from injuries that just MIGHT make all the difference. Stats and draws and analysis aside (cos really....no-one knows who'll be available to play for any side on any given day which to me is far more poignant than "the draw") footy is all about hope and improvement and enjoying the moments.

Go Pies.
 
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