Delisted #15: Josh Green - will not be offered a contract for 2019 - 10/9

[BrunoV]

To be fair, in terms of his initial recruitment to us, some people would have had concerns based on his time at Brisbane where he was relegated to their 2s due to lack of pressure/fitness/work ethic.

Not sure he has dispelled too many of these concerns?

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Exactly. If I couldn't understand why we'd bring in an unathletic, unfit player who was never renowned for his work rate, defensive ability or his team oriented play, have I seen anything at his time with us that should cause me to change my mind?

I don't see the issue with marking 80 game 25 year olds harshly.

And DERO and Bunk Moreland, the difference between Green and Begley/Laverde/even Long is that we've seen the best of what Green can do and there is no reason to think it will ever get better. So once the novelty of having an annoying, redhead small forward wears off it seems to be the end of the line.

 

[DERO]

Exactly. If I couldn't understand why we'd bring in an unathletic, unfit player who was never renowned for his work rate, defensive ability or his team oriented play, have I seen anything at his time with us that should cause me to change my mind?

I don't see the issue with marking 80 game 25 year olds harshly.

And DERO and Bunk Moreland, the difference between Green and Begley/Laverde/even Long is that we've seen the best of what Green can do and there is no reason to think it will ever get better. So once the novelty of having an annoying, redhead small forward wears off it seems to be the end of the line.

Sorry Bruno, you know I generally love your work but I feel I need to pull you up as I am more of a bird in the hand kind of guy and I don't agree with some of what you have posted as fact...

Whilst I agree that it is important to be looking at younger players, Laverde has been played on potential and has shown very little, Long is lucky to be on the list after quite a few years of not showing much at all and Begley probably fits in the same category as Laverde but has been on the list a shorter amount of time and shown more. Laverde will have one more year to demonstrate that he can cut it AFL level after this year, Begley deserves opportunities and hopefully has some development in him and Long has managed to put together a handful of ok games at VFL level recently after 3 or 4 years in the reserves! You did not mention Baguley who has been being played up forward who has done little apart from a career saving game a few weeks ago.

Further to that, to say Green is unfit is inaccurate. To say he does not play his part defensively is also inaccurate. Before his injury, he was actually getting picking up kicks and laying tackles as far down as our back line. This was the result of being able to do the full pre-season this year. His work-rate is good. Now I know he was average last week but watch him closely for a bit. He never fumbles, he hits targets by hand and foot and he gets to good spots. Right here, right now purely on output, he is currently the best option in his position than any of the other names listed in this post. I guess that would be why he keeps getting played...

 

[Lore]

Yes he's opportunistic, a little selfish, short little legs and sometimes gets caught napping or does something silly. You'd be hard pressed to find more than a couple of small forwards in the entire league who are not those things.

I sometimes think we've been spoilt rotten with the likes of Fantasia, McKenna, Zachy Merrett playing up there, even Walla at his best is brilliant, and Joe would play small as much as tall. Now we seem to expect them all to play like superstars.

He's not a super star. He won't get a brownlow, a crichton or an AA jacket. But you'll rarely get a bad game out of him either. What he provides is consistency. 10 touches a game, half of them contested. His contested possession rate actually rates as elite for a small forward. Plenty of ground ball gets, wins frees, and has reasonably high tackle numbers particularly inside fifty. He averages two or three shots on goal, which he converts more often than not (61.5%, which is above average for the league and almost elite by Essendon standards of late). This is what a role player looks like.

Goal sense isn't the worst thing in the world and Green held down a spot in the most effective forward line in the league last year with it. Having the rest of that 2017 forward line injured, out of form, or playing at the other end of the ground, with a new line coach and whatever other s**t going on in the coaches' box has made the overall forward line dysfunctional as hell, but that's a collective issue, and it's unfair to lay that all on the one bloke that's still performing in the role and at the standard he did last year. He can certainly play a role under the right circumstances and play it well, which is all that should be expected of him.

 

[Lore]

Whilst I agree that it is important to be looking at younger players, Laverde has been played on potential and has shown very little, Long is lucky to be on the list after quite a few years of not showing much at all and Begley probably fits in the same category as Laverde but has been on the list a shorter amount of time and shown more. Laverde will have one more year to demonstrate that he can cut it AFL level after this year, Begley deserves opportunities and hopefully has some development in him and Long has managed to put together a handful of ok games at VFL level recently after 3 or 4 years in the reserves! You did not mention Baguley who has been being played up forward who has done little apart from a career saving game a few weeks ago.

Begley did his ACL

 

[Kakkle]

He's not a super star. He won't get a brownlow, a crichton or an AA jacket. But you'll rarely get a bad game out of him either. What he provides is consistency. 10 touches a game, half of them contested. His contested possession rate actually rates as elite for a small forward. Plenty of ground ball gets, wins frees, and has reasonably high tackle numbers particularly inside fifty. He averages two or three shots on goal, which he converts more often than not (61.5%, which is above average for the league and almost elite by Essendon standards of late). This is what a role player looks like.

What is he actually converting at while at Essendon? I doubt it'd even be above 50%.

 

[Lore]

What is he actually converting at while at Essendon? I doubt it'd even be above 50%.

61.5% this season. Don't have a stat for last season handy.

All the numbers I quoted are for this season. Although I took a look at last seasons stats as well for overall shots on goal average, possession average etc.

 

[DERO]

Begley did his ACL

He did but he did not set the world on fire prior to getting injured apart from one really good game last year. Deserves his opportunity though.

 

[Lore]

He did but he did not set the world on fire prior to getting injured apart from one really good game last year. Deserves his opportunity though.

He's a kid, still only 19. My point was more that I don't think Green is competing with him right at the moment anyway, so overall his inclusion in this discussion is moot. Until he proves he's better than Green, or someone else does, Green will have a spot on the list and probably also in the starting 22.

 

[Mr Mojo Risin]

Sorry Bruno, you know I generally love your work but I feel I need to pull you up as I am more of a bird in the hand kind of guy and I don't agree with some of what you have posted as fact...

Whilst I agree that it is important to be looking at younger players, Laverde has been played on potential and has shown very little, Long is lucky to be on the list after quite a few years of not showing much at all and Begley probably fits in the same category as Laverde but has been on the list a shorter amount of time and shown more. Laverde will have one more year to demonstrate that he can cut it AFL level after this year, Begley deserves opportunities and hopefully has some development in him and Long has managed to put together a handful of ok games at VFL level recently after 3 or 4 years in the reserves! You did not mention Baguley who has been being played up forward who has done little apart from a career saving game a few weeks ago.

Further to that, to say Green is unfit is inaccurate. To say he does not play his part defensively is also inaccurate. Before his injury, he was actually getting picking up kicks and laying tackles as far down as our back line. This was the result of being able to do the full pre-season this year. His work-rate is good. Now I know he was average last week but watch him closely for a bit. He never fumbles, he hits targets by hand and foot and he gets to good spots. Right here, right now purely on output, he is currently the best option in his position than any of the other names listed in this post. I guess that would be why he keeps getting played...

The main issue I have with that is Green doesn’t really perform better than Long at VFL level so why doesn’t Long get more of a chance at AFL level? Long is never going to be a high possession player but he can provide good pressure and has enough tricks that translate at AFL level. I’d rather see what he can do with an extended run rather that watch Green call for it like he’s a key position player.

 

[eth-dog]

What is he actually converting at while at Essendon? I doubt it'd even be above 50%.

Has kicked 25.26 here from 23 games.

 

[blitzer]

Green won't last on the list long term or in the seniors for very long. If Begley was still fit he wouldn't have even made it back to the seniors following his injury.

Green is an OK depth player that can play a role but lacks too much defensively for the small forward role in the current football era. I genuinely believe he tries defensively but he's just too bloody slow. You can't get away with that long term unless you are offensively a big threat like Dan Menzel. He ain't that much of a threat though.

I reckon by the start of 2020 he will have been delisted and will continue on as a state level player.

 

[Don35]

Slow cheat one trick pony. Shouldn’t be keeping a young bloke out of the side

 

[bjisgod9]

Slow cheat one trick pony. Shouldn’t be keeping a young bloke out of the side

Which young small fwd you talking about?

 

[DERO]

Which young small fwd you talking about?

EXACTLY

 

[Mr Mojo Risin]

Which young small fwd you talking about?

If you don’t already know, it would take too Long to explain that there is a player who has played there in the VFL with tricks and pressure and while he is playing wing at the moment, should be given a longer run at AFL level. We’re not going to win the premiership, may as well see what we have and quite frankly, don’t think he’d be worse than Green.

 

[BrunoV]

Which young small fwd you talking about?

Argument would work if Green was playing well and the team was playing well. It might have had some point last year. Even then, it's a spot as a the third small forward in a team that is struggling to develop players in the middle. So if there is a viable midfield option that is not getting a game that's ridiculous.

 

[bjisgod9]

Argument would work if Green was playing well and the team was playing well. It might have had some point last year. Even then, it's a spot as a the third small forward in a team that is struggling to develop players in the middle. So if there is a viable midfield option that is not getting a game that's ridiculous.

Agree with you to some point and if Walla and Fantasia were in better form things would be very different. I still think that we do require a 3rd small fwd in the setup we play and if we want to use Walla and Fantasia up the ground then we still need a capable, smart fwd player. I agree with some that Green hasn't been quite what we need/want, but he plays a role and even though he seems slow, I don't think his fwd half pressure is as bad as a lot are making it out to be.

 

[bjisgod9]

If you don’t already know, it would take too Long to explain that there is a player who has played there in the VFL with tricks and pressure and while he is playing wing at the moment, should be given a longer run at AFL level. We’re not going to win the premiership, may as well see what we have and quite frankly, don’t think he’d be worse than Green.

Yeah I take that point but has Long shown enough improvement to demand a spot in the side? I like Long and thought that he would get games last year but he just didn't kick on as I thought he would. Haven't seen many VFL games but I personally haven't seen much in his games to suggest he could cut it as a regular senior player.

 

[Mr Mojo Risin]

Yeah I take that point but has Long shown enough improvement to demand a spot in the side? I like Long and thought that he would get games last year but he just didn't kick on as I thought he would. Haven't seen many VFL games but I personally haven't seen much in his games to suggest he could cut it as a regular senior player.

I guess the point is Long has tricks, has defensive effort and has been on the list a few years. IMO he would be just as valuable to the team as Green and with continuity in the seniors, may show something. Worst case he isn’t as good as Green but we learn a valuable list management decision when we’re not going to win the premiership anyway.

 

[owen87]

I’m not sure any of our smalls outside Fantasia have the goal sense that Green does.

He’s flawed, and the kind of guy who’s never going to be more than a bottom 4 of the best 22 player, but he can find the goals when given a sniff, is reasonably clean at ground level and roves packs better than most.

I’d like to see Long given a run in his role, but I can easily see Green surviving another year if Long doesn’t show that ability to be a goal threat at ground level.

He is what he is, a fairly run of the mill small forward who can play his role OK within a team but won’t ever be a superstar, the kind of guy you’d prefer sitting as your VFL depth small but that you know will bob up for a goal or two most weeks in a functional team.

 

[bjisgod9]

I guess the point is Long has tricks, has defensive effort and has been on the list a few years. IMO he would be just as valuable to the team as Green and with continuity in the seniors, may show something. Worst case he isn’t as good as Green but we learn a valuable list management decision when we’re not going to win the premiership anyway.

Fair point, I'll admit that I was surprised by Green coming back in, would have preferred he earns his spot from the 2's, but I have liked most of what he has done for the last 2 years. I don't know how each of Long/Green played prior to last weeks game though, maybe he outperformed Long in a similar role and thats why he came in. I wouldn't argue with that, selection based on form and playing a role. I would not want to just play Long in the hope that he will provide something different than Green, he needs to show form that would indicate that he can outperform him.

 

[DERO]

I STILL BELIEVE

 

[yodellinhank]

I STILL BELIEVE

I STILL BELIEVE IN LONG

 

[yaco55]

Maybe so, but I also wouldn't play them both in the same team,

Absolutely both shouldn't be in the same team - Bear in mind that most have unrealistic expectations on how a small forward should perform - get 10 possessions, a goal and two or three tackles and you've performed your role.

 

[yaco55]

He’s not very good. Baguley any day, can mark, stronger, better tackler and probably even quicker.

But Baguley struggles between the two arcs which is an important role as a small forward - Even as a defender, Baguley struggled with this aspect of his game - I look at how a player fits into the team structure when I assess a player.