Player Watch #17: Daniel Rioli - 5 more years! (Contracted until 2027)

[db26]

While I agree his been down a bit this year has improved over the past month.Wouldn't be dropping him he goes up a notch in finals big time lifts and I think the inclusion of Edwards will help him.

 

[Stevi_Tigers]

Been looking at stats he’s never been the same player since breaking his foot against the crows in the 17 flag but has still found a way to contribute

Before the broken foot multiple goals in 11 out of 43 games highest amount 4 in a prelim

Since the broken foot multiple goals 8 out of a further 47 games with a highest of 3

31 games out of 90 with one goal

19 games out of 90 with at least 2 goals

40 games out of 90 with no goals kicked

Interesting enough he kicked

38 goals from 43 games before the broken foot

38 goals from 47 after it

 

[YeOldTiger]

Been looking at stats he’s never been the same player since breaking his foot against the crows in the 17 flag but has still found a way to contribute

Before the broken foot multiple goals in 11 out of 43 games highest amount 4 in a prelim

Since the broken foot multiple goals 8 out of a further 47 games with a highest of 3

31 games out of 90 with one goal

19 games out of 90 with at least 2 goals

40 games out of 90 with no goals kicked

Interesting enough he kicked

38 goals from 43 games before the broken foot

38 goals from 47 after it

It must be very hard for a player so reliant on twisting and turning (that amazing act of agility when he actually broke his foot is a prime example) to do so with a foot fracture. My wife broke the fifth metatarsal in her foot in Feb this and had a LOT of sleepless nights in the twelve week rehab. Then, the pain hadn't subsided after three months and they re scanned and found it hadn't healed correctly which is not uncommon. So another long wait and continuing rehab through winter and then finally an operation to insert a screw down the bone and another six weeks rehab. She's finally walking around and sleeping peacefully but she doesn't think it will ever feel the same or give her the mobility she used to have. Feet are so troublesome once you have a problem with them.

The fact that they've stuck with Daniel (despite dropping him a few times to gain some form) will hopefully reap a reward in finals as he looks to be getting back to his old self. Fingers crossed his curve keeps heading upwards because our small forwards have been all over the shop this year.

 

[Stevi_Tigers]

It must be very hard for a player so reliant on twisting and turning (that amazing act of agility when he actually broke his foot is a prime example) to do so with a foot fracture. My wife broke the fifth metatarsal in her foot in Feb this and had a LOT of sleepless nights in the twelve week rehab. Then, the pain hadn't subsided after three months and they re scanned and found it hadn't healed correctly which is not uncommon. So another long wait and continuing rehab through winter and then finally an operation to insert a screw down the bone and another six weeks rehab. She's finally walking around and sleeping peacefully but she doesn't think it will ever feel the same or give her the mobility she used to have. Feet are so troublesome once you have a problem with them.

The fact that they've stuck with Daniel (despite dropping him a few times to gain some form) will hopefully reap a reward in finals as he looks to be getting back to his old self. Fingers crossed his curve keeps heading upwards because our small forwards have been all over the shop this year.

Footy aside all the best to you and your wife on her recovery and hopefully it goes back to normal or as normal as possible

 

[tora tora tora]

hes only been getting a game because Prestia n Edwards have been unavailable these past 13 games ,those 2 come in and on form he doesnt push past
McIntosh,Baker or Aarts,theres no position for him now imo due to the roaring success thats is Bolton as a midfielder,nobody in theyre wildest dreams would of pre empted that,with Graham slowly building to career best form again and Bolton on the charge theres no spot on team balance as Astbury and or Broad will
return so Balta can be used as a Utility,anyway thats the way i see it,it dont matter much what i think,all those players ive mentioned defensive skills are far
superior than Picketts

Aarts will be squeezed out IMO. Caddy and Chol are slight concerns. I have Edwards, Markov and Chol all up forward this week. I've been impressed with the form of Aarts, Dan and George lately. But I feel Aarts will be first out.
I'd like a look at Chol as replacement for Lynch. See if he responds to being on the ground the whole game.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Aarts will be squeezed out IMO. Caddy and Chol are slight concerns. I have Edwards, Markov and Chol all up forward this week. I've been impressed with the form of Aarts, Dan and George lately. But I feel Aarts will be first out.
I'd like a look at Chol as replacement for Lynch. See if he responds to being on the ground the whole game.

The team is undoubtedly getting tough to pick, with Bolton, Lynch, Prestia looking likely to return.

But I am thinking Rioli, Castagna and Aarts are pretty much locked in. They seem to be providing very high energy right at the right point in the season.

V Crows between them:

35 disposals
6 clangers
9 tackles
4 goals 2 behinds
3 goal assists
7 inside 50’s
2 rebound 50’s
171 AFL Fantasy points.

That is a really decent haul for a trio of small forwards. Stengle, Jones, McAdam for the Crowsdid not get anywhere near matching that output.

V Cats - arguably stronger opposition , they got:

32 disposals
2 clangers
8 tackles
2 goals 3 behinds
0 goal assists(we kicked 7 and there were only 11 goals for the entire match)
4 inside 50’s
0 rebound 50’s
167 AFL Fantasy points.

Cats dropped most of their small forwards after that match, Close, Jarvis, Fogarty did not get near matching our boys either.

So across those two matches where admittedly the ball spent plenty of time in our forward half, our trio of small forwards have been really strong, and stats aside, just from watching, loads of energy and intent. As a group, their stats are nicely above season average over the last two matches, including goals + goals assists, and neither match was high scoring. I am not leaving any of these blokes out.

Defenders:

Grimes Astbury Balta
Houli Vlastuin Short Baker

Barring injury that back 7 looks locked in

Forwards

Riewoldt Lynch Martin
Castagna Rioli Aarts + Caddy/Chol

That forward 7 looks likely to me

Ruck

Nankervis

Inside mids

Cotchin Bolton Graham Edwards

Wingers

Pickett
Mcintosh
Lambert

Now if Prestia returns, that gets really difficult. You would have to be leaving out Aarts to accomodate him all things being equal. More likely I think Prestia is given the first final off and see what happens.

 

[mopsy]

Remains the most over hyped player we have. Reasonable games being lauded as very good ones.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Remains the most over hyped player we have. Reasonable games being lauded as very good ones.

Where is the hype? I haven’t seen any at all. Just people recognising Rioli seems to be making his annual shift from dubious form to decent form....right around when a true Richmond supporter might want that to be happening, ie leading into finals.

Challenge: can anyone locate any of the Daniel Rioli hype Mopsy refers to?

Challenge for Mopsy: can you find any of the Daniel Rioli hype you refer to?

 

[tora tora tora]

The team is undoubtedly getting tough to pick, with Bolton, Lynch, Prestia looking likely to return.

But I am thinking Rioli, Castagna and Aarts are pretty much locked in. They seem to be providing very high energy right at the right point in the season.

V Crows between them:

35 disposals
6 clangers
9 tackles
4 goals 2 behinds
3 goal assists
7 inside 50’s
2 rebound 50’s
171 AFL Fantasy points.

That is a really decent haul for a trio of small forwards. Stengle, Jones, McAdam for the Crowsdid not get anywhere near matching that output.

V Cats - arguably stronger opposition , they got:

32 disposals
2 clangers
8 tackles
2 goals 3 behinds
0 goal assists(we kicked 7 and there were only 11 goals for the entire match)
4 inside 50’s
0 rebound 50’s
167 AFL Fantasy points.

Cats dropped most of their small forwards after that match, Close, Jarvis, Fogarty did not get near matching our boys either.

So across those two matches where admittedly the ball spent plenty of time in our forward half, our trio of small forwards have been really strong, and stats aside, just from watching, loads of energy and intent. As a group, their stats are nicely above season average over the last two matches, including goals + goals assists, and neither match was high scoring. I am not leaving any of these blokes out.

Defenders:

Grimes Astbury Balta
Houli Vlastuin Short Baker

Barring injury that back 7 looks locked in

Forwards

Riewoldt Lynch Martin
Castagna Rioli Aarts + Caddy/Chol

That forward 7 looks likely to me

Ruck

Nankervis

Inside mids

Cotchin Bolton Graham Edwards

Wingers

Pickett
Mcintosh
Lambert

Now if Prestia returns, that gets really difficult. You would have to be leaving out Aarts to accomodate him all things being equal. More likely I think Prestia is given the first final off and see what happens.

Dimma sounded certain that Prestia would play. You'd have to leave out Caddy/Chol/small fwd And bring in Prestia. And use Balta, JR, Lynch as back up ruck.

 

[Grrr]

Remains the most over hyped player we have. Reasonable games being lauded as very good ones.

Who would you play in his place though. Aarts is no.1 at the moment, reckon Castagna is worse than Rioli the last 4 weeks, and there is nobody other than Edwards and Bolton who could take his place but they are too good up the ground. It is a difficult position to play, there are so few good small forwards around at the moment.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Who would you play in his place though. Aarts is no.1 at the moment, reckon Castagna is worse than Rioli the last 4 weeks, and there is nobody other than Edwards and Bolton who could take his place but they are too good up the ground. It is a difficult position to play, there are so few good small forwards around at the moment.

If by that Grrr you mean Rioli has been average or bad and Castagna worse....

Last 4 matches against a decent basket of opponents, Castagna averages:

13 disposals - well above what our small forwards have averaged the last 4 seasons with us flying

3 Goals 3 behinds - very close to the average of what our small forwards score in the last 4 seasons when adjusted to 2020 reduced minutes. The average total scoring of 108 points in those matches is well below the average scoring both this season but way below the average scoring i n our games over the last 4 seasons. So in relative terms, Castagna is hitting the scoreboard well in this period.

0.5 Goal assists - well above the average of our small forwards in recent seasons, esp when adjusted for 2020 time reduction.

1.25 clangers - low for Castagna and again well below what our small forwards average in recent seasons even when adjusted for 2020 time reductions.

3.25 tackles - Again well above average expectation when adjusted.

Same for inside 50’s, same for rebound 50’s.

He is also averaging 66 AfL Fantasy points the last 4 rounds. That would be 82 in full matches and that is very very high for his position.

So statistically he looks basically in career best form.

So I am unsure what has given rise to your assessment, I am intrigued....what am I missing? From where I sit our small forwards are suddenly humming along really nicely.

 

[Grrr]

If by that Grrr you mean Rioli has been average or bad and Castagna worse....

Last 4 matches against a decent basket of opponents, Castagna averages:

13 disposals - well above what our small forwards have averaged the last 4 seasons with us flying

3 Goals 3 behinds - very close to the average of what our small forwards score in the last 4 seasons when adjusted to 2020 reduced minutes. The average total scoring of 108 points in those matches is well below the average scoring both this season but way below the average scoring i n our games over the last 4 seasons. So in relative terms, Castagna is hitting the scoreboard well in this period.

0.5 Goal assists - well above the average of our small forwards in recent seasons, esp when adjusted for 2020 time reduction.

1.25 clangers - low for Castagna and again well below what our small forwards average in recent seasons even when adjusted for 2020 time reductions.

3.25 tackles - Again well above average expectation when adjusted.

Same for inside 50’s, same for rebound 50’s.

He is also averaging 66 AfL Fantasy points the last 4 rounds. That would be 82 in full matches and that is very very high for his position.

So statistically he looks basically in career best form.

So I am unsure what has given rise to your assessment, I am intrigued....what am I missing? From where I sit our small forwards are suddenly humming along really nicely.

I think both are going okay, Rioli I feel is a bit more constructive than Castagna, especially in the last few weeks. Castagna has got more touches because he is going further up the ground. If you compare Castagna with Papley, Cameron, even Butler, and I've probably missed a few, then I think he is miles behind them. I know they are the best in the comp but it is an area we can improve on. Aarts is better than both at the moment.
His pressure has always been good.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I think both are going okay, Rioli I feel is a bit more constructive than Castagna, especially in the last few weeks. Castagna has got more touches because he is going further up the ground. If you compare Castagna with Papley, Cameron, even Butler, and I've probably missed a few, then I think he is miles behind them. I know they are the best in the comp but it is an area we can improve on. Aarts is better than both at the moment.
His pressure has always been good.

I think the club established in its view Castagna was not only not miles behind Butler but in faxct ahead of him by:

a) picking Castagna ahead of Butler when it came to the choice, and
b) letting Butler go and retaining Castagna.

Papley and Cameron and Walters, these types you are spending $700k+ on if you want someone like that. More than happy with Castagna on $300k ish. I acknowledge it may be possible to find a better value small forward than Castagna, possible, but not easy. Castagna may be getting more touches by going further up the ground but he is not struggling to get back in range because as I illustrated, in recent weeks he is doing very nicely for goal involvements. Unlike some of the players you mention as well, Castagna is rarely isolated deep forward or within goal range, if we gave him those opportunities his goal involvements would naturally be much higher. He plays his role and is currently playing it well I think.

 

[Wallaby]

I honestly don't know how to rate our small forwards in order of how good they are. What I like is that they all obviously play the roles they have been given and do them well. Sure, George looks rough as bags sometimes (most times), Aarts tries to do too much (sometimes), and Rioli looks lazy (often times), but they are playing the gameplan - however we mere mortal outsiders understand it (yeah, I watch 2 hours of Richmond football once a week, and so I understand all the nuances and outcomes that are trained for by players).

A couple of years ago, I thought Butler may be the most 'skilled' of our small forwards. I still sort of think that. But if he doesn't 'fit' the gameplan as well as the other forwards - that may be the reason the club was happy to let him go. When Bolton made his successful move to the midfield, Aarts was chosen ahead of some other (possibly) higher-rated candidates - some high draft picks - because he could play the current Richmond way.

I think it's instructive to look at the '2020 AA side' thread on the main board - most posters have at best one or two Richmond players in their teams - some have none. Yet we are one of the flag favourites. We are the best team - and a good team will always beat a team of excellent players (hmmm - if I could only think of a clever aphorism there).

 

[JAKLAUGHING]

I can...

 

[Grrr]

I think the club established in its view Castagna was not only not miles behind Butler but in faxct ahead of him by:

a) picking Castagna ahead of Butler when it came to the choice, and
b) letting Butler go and retaining Castagna.

Papley and Cameron and Walters, these types you are spending $700k+ on if you want someone like that. More than happy with Castagna on $300k ish. I acknowledge it may be possible to find a better value small forward than Castagna, possible, but not easy. Castagna may be getting more touches by going further up the ground but he is not struggling to get back in range because as I illustrated, in recent weeks he is doing very nicely for goal involvements. Unlike some of the players you mention as well, Castagna is rarely isolated deep forward or within goal range, if we gave him those opportunities his goal involvements would naturally be much higher. He plays his role and is currently playing it well I think.

Agree with most of what you are saying and in mentioning Butler it was only on this years form, which see's him a good chance to be AA.

In highlighting Papley etc, they weren't all high draft picks, Papley was a last minute rookie, so they are out there.

Castagna is right on the edge of best 22 even though he has been a very good player. Caddy is out possibly, Aarts is just in. Rioli has been dropped a couple of times. If Stack hadn't have come back in such crap shape he would probably be playing over George right now. We have to fit Bolton and Prestia into a side that is going well. Who will be squeezed out.

George is our least skilled player even though that hasn't mattered much because of the pressure he applies and he has a good all round game. That is being tested right now I reckon.

 

[Grrr]

I honestly don't know how to rate our small forwards in order of how good they are. What I like is that they all obviously play the roles they have been given and do them well. Sure, George looks rough as bags sometimes (most times), Aarts tries to do too much (sometimes), and Rioli looks lazy (often times), but they are playing the gameplan - however we mere mortal outsiders understand it (yeah, I watch 2 hours of Richmond football once a week, and so I understand all the nuances and outcomes that are trained for by players).

A couple of years ago, I thought Butler may be the most 'skilled' of our small forwards. I still sort of think that. But if he doesn't 'fit' the gameplan as well as the other forwards - that may be the reason the club was happy to let him go. When Bolton made his successful move to the midfield, Aarts was chosen ahead of some other (possibly) higher-rated candidates - some high draft picks - because he could play the current Richmond way.

I think it's instructive to look at the '2020 AA side' thread on the main board - most posters have at best one or two Richmond players in their teams - some have none. Yet we are one of the flag favourites. We are the best team - and a good team will always beat a team of excellent players (hmmm - if I could only think of a clever aphorism there).

Our game plan has evolved quite a bit. Lynch has changed everything because he has given us a target to go long to and he is rarely beaten one on on or even two. Add Riewoldt and we want the ball in the air.

Earlier in the year we bombed it in and won by repeated entries. We have tidied that up quite a bit. Our small forwards have therefore not been quite as important because players like Graham, Lambert, Aarts and Pickett have added pressure also down forward, not to mention Martin spending a lot more time forward also. So Rioli and Castagna have not been as important.

Castagna was always good down the forward half because he took a lot of marks, a bit like Caddy, that small medium marking power is not as important now.
Up the ground you need better skills. Rioli was off early but is getting better each week, Aarts is neat and rarely makes mistakes, and Castagna's lack of polish is more highlighted. To me he is a bit like Broad, who nearly everyone on this board pencilled in as an automatic, they can be upgraded. That is just how football works. We are a pretty good side full strength after all. I would not be disappointed if they drafted the best small forward in the league next draft. Higgins was supposed to be that player but he is a tad slow.

 

[lumpinee]

yeah i agree with almost everything on this page and whomever gets dropped for Prestia u gotta feel for becos none deserves to
6 weeks ago u would of dropped Graham and Rioli without a seconds thought,now that cant be done,imo Caddy and Chol move out for Lynch
and Bolton,Chol just doesnt have the intensity levels atm for what lies ahead,i hope they stick with Aarts instead of Caddy,hes been a good contributor
and his pressure is fantastic.
Prestia has to come in becos hes all class under pressure,Pickett is not,imo hes the player to make way for Prestia unfortunately,if Bolton's
move to the midfield hadnt of come off ,well Picket might of survived,but its a stunning success thus far and with Graham who is just absolutely
bossing every contest he gets involved in the last 3-4 games he almost gets first crack at the centre bounce,thats how far hes come from 12 weeks ago
when he looked like he couldnt of beaten an egg.
So the rise of Riolis and Grahams form,Boltons success as a midfielder,Aarts application to every contest and the fact that Pickett cannot play in Castagnas
position tells me that Pickett is the one to miss for Prestia,oh also i forgot to mention Bakers AA form which also wouldnt of been predicted pre rd 1
may have had Pickett in front of him,may of,but definitely not now

 

[peternorth]

yeah i agree with almost everything on this page and whomever gets dropped for Prestia u gotta feel for becos none deserves to
6 weeks ago u would of dropped Graham and Rioli without a seconds thought,now that cant be done,imo Caddy and Chol move out for Lynch
and Bolton,Chol just doesnt have the intensity levels atm for what lies ahead,i hope they stick with Aarts instead of Caddy,hes been a good contributor
and his pressure is fantastic.
Prestia has to come in becos hes all class under pressure,Pickett is not,imo hes the player to make way for Prestia unfortunately,if Bolton's
move to the midfield hadnt of come off ,well Picket might of survived,but its a stunning success thus far and with Graham who is just absolutely
bossing every contest he gets involved in the last 3-4 games he almost gets first crack at the centre bounce,thats how far hes come from 12 weeks ago
when he looked like he couldnt of beaten an egg.
So the rise of Riolis and Grahams form,Boltons success as a midfielder,Aarts application to every contest and the fact that Pickett cannot play in Castagnas
position tells me that Pickett is the one to miss for Prestia,oh also i forgot to mention Bakers AA form which also wouldnt of been predicted pre rd 1
may have had Pickett in front of him,may of,but definitely not now

ah remember EGG. Had that game v norf. Then was a shell of himself

 

[Bojangles17]

Been looking at stats he’s never been the same player since breaking his foot against the crows in the 17 flag but has still found a way to contribute

Before the broken foot multiple goals in 11 out of 43 games highest amount 4 in a prelim

Since the broken foot multiple goals 8 out of a further 47 games with a highest of 3

31 games out of 90 with one goal

19 games out of 90 with at least 2 goals

40 games out of 90 with no goals kicked

Interesting enough he kicked

38 goals from 43 games before the broken foot

38 goals from 47 after it

So what your saying is in reality there’s fa diff ,,someone put it to me once he’s a 16-24 list player and if you measure his output in that context he’s a pretty decent player
Fill in beow how many 16-24 list players could have a finals highlights reel like his , incl 4G pre lim

 

[Grrr]

yeah i agree with almost everything on this page and whomever gets dropped for Prestia u gotta feel for becos none deserves to
6 weeks ago u would of dropped Graham and Rioli without a seconds thought,now that cant be done,imo Caddy and Chol move out for Lynch
and Bolton,Chol just doesnt have the intensity levels atm for what lies ahead,i hope they stick with Aarts instead of Caddy,hes been a good contributor
and his pressure is fantastic.
Prestia has to come in becos hes all class under pressure,Pickett is not,imo hes the player to make way for Prestia unfortunately,if Bolton's
move to the midfield hadnt of come off ,well Picket might of survived,but its a stunning success thus far and with Graham who is just absolutely
bossing every contest he gets involved in the last 3-4 games he almost gets first crack at the centre bounce,thats how far hes come from 12 weeks ago
when he looked like he couldnt of beaten an egg.
So the rise of Riolis and Grahams form,Boltons success as a midfielder,Aarts application to every contest and the fact that Pickett cannot play in Castagnas
position tells me that Pickett is the one to miss for Prestia,oh also i forgot to mention Bakers AA form which also wouldnt of been predicted pre rd 1
may have had Pickett in front of him,may of,but definitely not now

Reckon Pickett has really controlled his wing and does a fair bit on unnoticed footy. That tackle last week on Laird for example, plus covering defensively etc. Finally we have two good wingmen in good form, I wouldn't mess with that.

 

[YeOldTiger]

Footy aside all the best to you and your wife on her recovery and hopefully it goes back to normal or as normal as possible

Thanks mate. She's still smashing the physio and her work have been great and she's back riding a bike which is her passion so things are looking up. Appreciated. Go Tiges !

 

[Marcel Proust]

Remains the most over hyped player we have. Reasonable games being lauded as very good ones.

Probably they most scrutinized guy on the list. Outside of maybe Pickett. George.

Dan Rioli has been building nicely of late. Seems to always do the team thing. Tackle and pressure at good levels. Running around a lot.

Hopefully we see another finals/grand final level rioli performance.

 

[rfctigerarmy]

All I'm going to say is when Rioli gave away probably one of the stupidist 50 metre penalties I've seen, based on the time in the game, I thought we were potentially going to lose.

Was absolutely ropable at his stupidity at that moment.

 

[joelsyt]

All I'm going to say is when Rioli gave away probably one of the stupidist 50 metre penalties I've seen, based on the time in the game, I thought we were potentially going to lose.

Was absolutely ropable at his stupidity at that moment.

Lol so was I and I am one of his biggest supporters.

I hope he got his ass kicked for it.

However he should play this weekend because outside that 50 metre penalty, he played probably his best game for the year.