Autopsy 18 months, 6 games, 8 goals, 2 x Top 2 spots, 20 to 24 players gone

[RussellEbertHandball]

That is the bizarre equation ladies and gentleman. You don't understand? Let me explain.

18 months - 1st May 2017 to 31st October 2018

6 games
2017
R7 H West Coast 12.15 87 v 15.7 97 Lose -10 pts Adelaide Oval Sat 06-May-2017 4:05 PM

R10 A Geelong 11.13 79 v 11.15 81 Lose -2 pts Kardinia Park Thu 25-May-2017 7:20 PM

2018
R11 A Hawthorn 9.7 61 v 9.10 64 Lose -3 pts York Park Sat 02-Jun-2018 2:10 PM

R17 A Fremantle 7.8 50 v 8.11 59 Lose -9 pts Perth Stadium Sun 15-Jul-2018 2:40 PM

R20 A Adelaide 14.9 93 v 13.18 96 Lose -3 pts Adelaide Oval Sat 04-Aug-2018 4:05 PM

R21 H West Coast 9.4 58 v 9.8 62 Lose -4 pts Adelaide Oval Sat 11-Aug-2018 4:05 PM


8 goals - either extra goals kicked, or stopped oppo from kicking those 8, or a combo.
2 v WCE, 1 v Geelong (Dixon FFS), 1 v Hawks, 2 v Freo, 1 v crows, 1 v WCE.


Applying the ole ceretris paribus that the economists always apply in their analysis - ie change one thing but keep everything else constant, no other changes happen.

2 x Top 2 spots
2017 14 wins become 16 wins and more than minor premiers Adelaide on 15 wins and a draw

2018 12 wins becomes 16 wins, WCE go from 16 wins to 15 wins as they lose to us and we finish 2nd.

20-24 players gone from the club (bold is the one year wonders)
2017 Trengove, Impey, Lobbe, Young, Austin, Ah Chee, Monfries, Krakouer, White, Eddy, Palmer

2018 Toumpas, Irra and Thomas already gone so add Polec, McKenzie, Neade, Snelling, Hewett, Ladhams maybe depending on our ruck strategy, maybe Trengove
Trade bait Hombsch, Atley, Pittard, Amon, Sam Gray

It is bizarre that we are that close, yet that far from success. Turning over 10+ players a year, 2 years in a row is Carltonesque. Something is just way out of wack ladies and gentleman.

We are bereft of leadership when it counts in the close games against tough opponents and the usual perennial teams we fail against. But we work our arse off to get close, but then just do dumb things to lose, which aren't helped by dumb list management selections and dumb game day selections.

Once again, it's why i use #marginalgains - both realistically and pejoratively.

 

[Port01]

I remember when geelong made the finals winning 7 out of 8 close games and went out in straight sets.

regardless of our close games, we aren't a side that other teams fear, even crap sides. Until we have that ruthlessness that keeps opposition up at night, we won't get there. It can turn quickly.

 

[PAFCsince1870]

Yea close losses or not we’d be ripped apart in finals by decent teams at the moment. Just not good enough.

 

[GremioPower]

That is the bizarre equation ladies and gentleman. You don't understand? Let me explain.

18 months - 1st May 2017 to 31st October 2018

6 games
2017
R7 H West Coast 12.15 87 v 15.7 97 Lose -10 pts Adelaide Oval Sat 06-May-2017 4:05 PM

R10 A Geelong 11.13 79 v 11.15 81 Lose -2 pts Kardinia Park Thu 25-May-2017 7:20 PM

2018
R11 A Hawthorn 9.7 61 v 9.10 64 Lose -3 pts York Park Sat 02-Jun-2018 2:10 PM

R17 A Fremantle 7.8 50 v 8.11 59 Lose -9 pts Perth Stadium Sun 15-Jul-2018 2:40 PM

R20 A Adelaide 14.9 93 v 13.18 96 Lose -3 pts Adelaide Oval Sat 04-Aug-2018 4:05 PM

R21 H West Coast 9.4 58 v 9.8 62 Lose -4 pts Adelaide Oval Sat 11-Aug-2018 4:05 PM


8 goals - either extra goals kicked, or stopped oppo from kicking those 8, or a combo.
2 v WCE, 1 v Geelong (Dixon FFS), 1 v Hawks, 2 v Freo, 1 v crows, 1 v WCE.


Applying the ole ceretris paribus that the economists always apply in their analysis - ie change one thing but keep everything else constant, no other changes happen.

2 x Top 2 spots
2017 14 wins become 16 wins and more than minor premiers Adelaide on 15 wins and a draw

2018 12 wins becomes 16 wins, WCE go from 16 wins to 15 wins as they lose to us and we finish 2nd.

20-24 players gone from the club (bold is the one year wonders)
2017 Trengove, Impey, Lobbe, Young, Austin, Ah Chee, Monfries, Krakouer, White, Eddy, Palmer

2018 Toumpas, Irra and Thomas already gone so add Polec, McKenzie, Neade, Snelling, Hewett, Ladhams maybe depending on our ruck strategy, maybe Trengove
Trade bait Hombsch, Atley, Pittard, Amon, Sam Gray

It is bizarre that we are that close, yet that far from success. Turning over 10+ players a year, 2 years in a row is Carltonesque. Something is just way out of wack ladies and gentleman.

We are bereft of leadership when it counts in the close games against tough opponents and the usual perennial teams we fail against. But we work our arse off to get close, but then just do dumb things to lose, which aren't helped by dumb list management selections and dumb game day selections.

Once again, it's why i use #marginalgains - both realistically and pejoratively.

Those 6 games aren't equal. Three of them shouldn't have been close considering the scoring shots; and in only one of those we have outscored our opponents.

In which of those 6 games have we started Q4 with a lead?

 

[Interstater]

So many different ways to interpret this.

We need to get good enough so that "external factors" don't affect results.

 

[nadsee]

That is the bizarre equation ladies and gentleman. You don't understand? Let me explain.

18 months - 1st May 2017 to 31st October 2018

6 games
2017
R7 H West Coast 12.15 87 v 15.7 97 Lose -10 pts Adelaide Oval Sat 06-May-2017 4:05 PM

R10 A Geelong 11.13 79 v 11.15 81 Lose -2 pts Kardinia Park Thu 25-May-2017 7:20 PM

2018
R11 A Hawthorn 9.7 61 v 9.10 64 Lose -3 pts York Park Sat 02-Jun-2018 2:10 PM

R17 A Fremantle 7.8 50 v 8.11 59 Lose -9 pts Perth Stadium Sun 15-Jul-2018 2:40 PM

R20 A Adelaide 14.9 93 v 13.18 96 Lose -3 pts Adelaide Oval Sat 04-Aug-2018 4:05 PM

R21 H West Coast 9.4 58 v 9.8 62 Lose -4 pts Adelaide Oval Sat 11-Aug-2018 4:05 PM


8 goals - either extra goals kicked, or stopped oppo from kicking those 8, or a combo.
2 v WCE, 1 v Geelong (Dixon FFS), 1 v Hawks, 2 v Freo, 1 v crows, 1 v WCE.


Applying the ole ceretris paribus that the economists always apply in their analysis - ie change one thing but keep everything else constant, no other changes happen.

2 x Top 2 spots
2017 14 wins become 16 wins and more than minor premiers Adelaide on 15 wins and a draw

2018 12 wins becomes 16 wins, WCE go from 16 wins to 15 wins as they lose to us and we finish 2nd.

20-24 players gone from the club (bold is the one year wonders)
2017 Trengove, Impey, Lobbe, Young, Austin, Ah Chee, Monfries, Krakouer, White, Eddy, Palmer

2018 Toumpas, Irra and Thomas already gone so add Polec, McKenzie, Neade, Snelling, Hewett, Ladhams maybe depending on our ruck strategy, maybe Trengove
Trade bait Hombsch, Atley, Pittard, Amon, Sam Gray

It is bizarre that we are that close, yet that far from success. Turning over 10+ players a year, 2 years in a row is Carltonesque. Something is just way out of wack ladies and gentleman.

We are bereft of leadership when it counts in the close games against tough opponents and the usual perennial teams we fail against. But we work our arse off to get close, but then just do dumb things to lose, which aren't helped by dumb list management selections and dumb game day selections.

Once again, it's why i use #marginalgains - both realistically and pejoratively.

Best part of this, is that you got pejoratively, into a post....

Plus we need to keep Trengove, he needs 6 games in succession...To see how he goes. We have carried others who have not performed.

In the past is exactly that> But we need to learn from our history. I do not see us being realistic or ruthless enough with list management.
Always trade players with currency, not hang on to them, until they are De list-able only.
We need young fast & exciting/enthusiastic.....PLUS over 183cm, not frigging less.........
Wines is not our next captain.
END OF RANT.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Those 6 games aren't equal. Three of them shouldn't have been close considering the scoring shots; and in only one of those we have outscored our opponents.

In which of those 6 games have we started Q4 with a lead?

Doesn't matter how many shots you have had its how many goals you kick and what's on the scoreboard. All scores are here.

https://afltables.com/afl/teams/padelaide/allgames.html

 

[Coobk001]

Close games should never be factored into thinking and planning. They're a tease, they leave you to believe that you're close, but at the same time you lost and that's the main thing, when the whips cracked we simply weren't good enough.

Do we ever do analysis on the bad losses we had? The amount we beat teams by ie. Percentage? Do we do analysis on the number of score or goalless quarters we had Vs other teams? There's so many things we could consider Vs the rest of the comp that would highlight why we are where we are and why our close losses flatter us, and why we were never really top 2 contenders. However only one measure counts, and thats wins. We didnt win these games because we werent good enough.


I agree though, leadership is an issue on field and off. We need change, we need smarter decisions and we need a game plan that will inspire our players to rise up and reach their potential, rather than just becoming mediocre.

 

[GremioPower]

Doesn't matter how many shots you have had its how many goals you kick and what's on the scoreboard. All scores are here.

https://afltables.com/afl/teams/padelaide/allgames.html

I may be wrong, but I think it does matter. I would need to check the games decided by two goals or fewer and see the proportion of games won by the teams with fewer scoring shots.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

I may be wrong, but I think it does matter. I would need to check the games decided by two goals or fewer and see the proportion of games won by the teams with fewer scoring shots.

How many shots did Spain have over Russia and what percentage of possession did they have compared to Russia at the World Cup? In the end, it counted for nothing. You just need to convert.

 

[GremioPower]

How many shots did Spain have over Russia and what percentage of possession did they compared to Russia at the World Cup? In the end, it counted for nothing. You just need to convert.

Those things may happen, but how exceptional would they be? We need to prepare ourselves for the rule. My question is on what would be the rule.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Those things may happen, but how exceptional would they be? We need to prepare ourselves for the rule. My question is on what would be the rule.

40%-45% of all games have a margin of 0-23pts. That is potentially 1 mistake a quarter. That's how marginal it can be. There is no rule. Its, take your chances when you get them.

https://afltables.com/afl/teams/allteams/overall_margins.html#myear

 

[Holden Hillbilly]

BTW - there are 4 other clubs that would have a similar analysis.

 

[Us against the rest]

We have had to many quarters where we have not kicked goals or just 1 or 2 goals this year.
As far as player turnover goes, 8 - 10 players need to go through trade or delisting. The sad part is we recruit the wrong type of players, it's time to get some players with good ball use and players that make good decisions. Not sure how much Ken's terrible game plan adds to the drop in skill level.

 

[GremioPower]

40%-45% of all games have a margin of 0-23pts. That is potentially 1 mistake a quarter. That's how marginal it can be. There is no rule. Its, take your chances when you get them.

https://afltables.com/afl/teams/allteams/overall_margins.html#myear

I will check it out.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

BTW - there are 4 other clubs that would have a similar analysis.

Over 2 seasons?

 

[FishingRick04]

We are bereft of leadership when it counts in the close games against tough opponents and the usual perennial teams we fail against. But we work our arse off to get close, but then just do dumb things to lose, which aren't helped by dumb list management selections and dumb game day selections.

Once again, it's why i use #marginalgains - both realistically and pejoratively.

This is why a few weeks ago I targeted Boak, Gray, Westhoff and Ebert as main culprits. In 2015 when we started failing I identified composure of leaders and inturn leadership.

These 4 players need to be accountable. We also need to them recruit an experience leader eg Hodge like to guide the new leaders

 

[B0ydmental]

We know we have good players so we should expect this.

We have a terrible coach, and he has infected our players with loser

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Part of the reason we lose close games is that our defence are ratshit at one on one defence. When its a tight game late in the last quarter it becomes an accountable one on one game, not just in defence but all over the ground.

Champion Data's 2018 AFL Prospectus summing up players 2017 season and previous seasons a lot of our defenders and some other non defensive players had poor one on one statistics. Robbie Gray has poor one on one stats up forward. He does the magical but he is regularly beaten one on one especially when the oppo put someone 7-10cm and 10-15kgs heavier than him.

 

[FishingRick04]

pure matching fixing in 2 games also, Hawks 2018 and Geelong 2017

 

[Andre]

That is the bizarre equation ladies and gentleman. You don't understand? Let me explain.

18 months - 1st May 2017 to 31st October 2018

6 games
2017
R7 H West Coast 12.15 87 v 15.7 97 Lose -10 pts Adelaide Oval Sat 06-May-2017 4:05 PM

R10 A Geelong 11.13 79 v 11.15 81 Lose -2 pts Kardinia Park Thu 25-May-2017 7:20 PM

2018
R11 A Hawthorn 9.7 61 v 9.10 64 Lose -3 pts York Park Sat 02-Jun-2018 2:10 PM

R17 A Fremantle 7.8 50 v 8.11 59 Lose -9 pts Perth Stadium Sun 15-Jul-2018 2:40 PM

R20 A Adelaide 14.9 93 v 13.18 96 Lose -3 pts Adelaide Oval Sat 04-Aug-2018 4:05 PM

R21 H West Coast 9.4 58 v 9.8 62 Lose -4 pts Adelaide Oval Sat 11-Aug-2018 4:05 PM


8 goals - either extra goals kicked, or stopped oppo from kicking those 8, or a combo.
2 v WCE, 1 v Geelong (Dixon FFS), 1 v Hawks, 2 v Freo, 1 v crows, 1 v WCE.


Applying the ole ceretris paribus that the economists always apply in their analysis - ie change one thing but keep everything else constant, no other changes happen.

2 x Top 2 spots
2017 14 wins become 16 wins and more than minor premiers Adelaide on 15 wins and a draw

2018 12 wins becomes 16 wins, WCE go from 16 wins to 15 wins as they lose to us and we finish 2nd.

20-24 players gone from the club (bold is the one year wonders)
2017 Trengove, Impey, Lobbe, Young, Austin, Ah Chee, Monfries, Krakouer, White, Eddy, Palmer

2018 Toumpas, Irra and Thomas already gone so add Polec, McKenzie, Neade, Snelling, Hewett, Ladhams maybe depending on our ruck strategy, maybe Trengove
Trade bait Hombsch, Atley, Pittard, Amon, Sam Gray

It is bizarre that we are that close, yet that far from success. Turning over 10+ players a year, 2 years in a row is Carltonesque. Something is just way out of wack ladies and gentleman.

We are bereft of leadership when it counts in the close games against tough opponents and the usual perennial teams we fail against. But we work our arse off to get close, but then just do dumb things to lose, which aren't helped by dumb list management selections and dumb game day selections.

Once again, it's why i use #marginalgains - both realistically and pejoratively.

I don't think you can just say 'win all the close one's'. If it's close (within 2 goals), the sides are fairly evenly matched. What would be a bit more realistic is taking all matches 12 points or under and saying what if we'd won 50%? We'd still be better off as we've become the experts at close losses, but not as much as just flipping the losses only.

regardless of our close games, we aren't a side that other teams fear, even crap sides. Until we have that ruthlessness that keeps opposition up at night, we won't get there. It can turn quickly.

I disagree in part. Part of why we aren't feared is because sides know if we're ahead they still have a good chance of running us down. If we were Geelong like and won most of our close games, sides that would start the last quarter 2+ goals behind us would think they are more likely to lose and be prone to drop their heads and we'd turn a close win or loss into a 30 - 50 point win. It's not the only reason we aren't feared, but it's one of them.

 

[GremioPower]

That is the bizarre equation ladies and gentleman. You don't understand? Let me explain.

18 months - 1st May 2017 to 31st October 2018

6 games
2017
R7 H West Coast 12.15 87 v 15.7 97 Lose -10 pts Adelaide Oval Sat 06-May-2017 4:05 PM

R10 A Geelong 11.13 79 v 11.15 81 Lose -2 pts Kardinia Park Thu 25-May-2017 7:20 PM

2018
R11 A Hawthorn 9.7 61 v 9.10 64 Lose -3 pts York Park Sat 02-Jun-2018 2:10 PM

R17 A Fremantle 7.8 50 v 8.11 59 Lose -9 pts Perth Stadium Sun 15-Jul-2018 2:40 PM

R20 A Adelaide 14.9 93 v 13.18 96 Lose -3 pts Adelaide Oval Sat 04-Aug-2018 4:05 PM

R21 H West Coast 9.4 58 v 9.8 62 Lose -4 pts Adelaide Oval Sat 11-Aug-2018 4:05 PM


8 goals - either extra goals kicked, or stopped oppo from kicking those 8, or a combo.
2 v WCE, 1 v Geelong (Dixon FFS), 1 v Hawks, 2 v Freo, 1 v crows, 1 v WCE.


Applying the ole ceretris paribus that the economists always apply in their analysis - ie change one thing but keep everything else constant, no other changes happen.

2 x Top 2 spots
2017 14 wins become 16 wins and more than minor premiers Adelaide on 15 wins and a draw

2018 12 wins becomes 16 wins, WCE go from 16 wins to 15 wins as they lose to us and we finish 2nd.

20-24 players gone from the club (bold is the one year wonders)
2017 Trengove, Impey, Lobbe, Young, Austin, Ah Chee, Monfries, Krakouer, White, Eddy, Palmer

2018 Toumpas, Irra and Thomas already gone so add Polec, McKenzie, Neade, Snelling, Hewett, Ladhams maybe depending on our ruck strategy, maybe Trengove
Trade bait Hombsch, Atley, Pittard, Amon, Sam Gray

It is bizarre that we are that close, yet that far from success. Turning over 10+ players a year, 2 years in a row is Carltonesque. Something is just way out of wack ladies and gentleman.

We are bereft of leadership when it counts in the close games against tough opponents and the usual perennial teams we fail against. But we work our arse off to get close, but then just do dumb things to lose, which aren't helped by dumb list management selections and dumb game day selections.

Once again, it's why i use #marginalgains - both realistically and pejoratively.

Those 6 games aren't equal. Three of them shouldn't have been close considering the scoring shots; and in only one of those we have outscored our opponents.

In which of those 6 games have we started Q4 with a lead?

It seems there is a common theme in all those games...

2017 - Q3
R7, Port 7.13:55 - 12.4:76 (WC +21)
Port finally found the goal posts in Q4, kicking 5.2:32, but WC preserved the lead with 3 goals. Port closed the distance (-7), but Eagles scored three unanswered behinds in the end – lost by 10.

R10, Port 9.9:63 - 9.14:68 (Cats +5)
Port got the lead in Q4 (+1), but scored three consecutive behinds after that. We outscored Geelong in Q4 (6-3), but the Cats scored for last (a goal) – lost by 2.

2018 - Q3
R11, Port 6.6:42 - 7.7:49 (Hawks +7)
Port got the lead in Q4 (+5), but let Hawthorn score a goal. Hawks would kick two behinds more – lost by 3.

R17, Port 4.6:30 - 5.10:40 (Freo +10)
Both teams kicked better in Q4. Port outscored Freo (5-4), but got only one behind from it. Freo scored for last – lost by 9.

R20, Port 10.9:69 - 9.14:68 (Port +1)
Port kicked a perfect 4.0:24, but kept letting the opponent score (8 times; 4.4:28), including the last three of the game – lost by 3.

R21, Port 9.2:56 - 6.5:41 (Port +15)
We've kicked 0.2:2 in Q4. Eagles kicked the last two scores of the game (2 goals) – lost by 4.

We had the lead in Q4 in 4 of those games, but we let the opponents having the last scores in ALL SIX of them!

RussellEbertHandball, I need to check those games that we have won: R3, R8, R14 (2018). Would the trend continue?

 

[mic59]

Panicking at the end of the game, injuries and poor umpiring decisions are given as three reasons that we have lost close games this year. But look at the close games and ask yourselves, all things being equal did we deserve to win those games?

There were 4 games under 15 that we won. Brisbane by 5 points, Adelaide by 5 points, Richmond by 14 points and Melbourne by 10 points. Adelaide, Richmond and Melbourne I felt we were the better team for most of the game, even when we went behind in the Adelaide and Melbourne games. Brisbane we played a poor last quarter but overall would have been stiff to have lost.

4 games were lost by under 15 points. I don't think anyone would say we were unlucky in the Freo game. Paddy and Robbie were injured but we should have eaten them for breakfast. Hawthorn, Adelaide and West Coast were all less than a goal and much has been said on the Hawthorn game about the umpiring but putting that aside we didn't play well at all in that game. Rocky onto Mitchell happened much too late. The second Showdown was overshadowed by a score review but their inaccuracy kept us in it and we were ahead for a good part of the last quarter.
Of the three the West Coast game was the one where bad luck could be said to play a part, although we went defensive too easily and made mistakes at the end. Three players going down was cruel but even then we had chances. Taking time off the mark was not always a good idea as it allowed them to get players back and often gave them possession back. Beaten by two goals in the last 90 seconds, some may say bad luck, I say bad play.

So 4-4 in games under 15 points. The wins we were marginally the better, in the 4 losses we were unlucky to lose one of them.

 

[GremioPower]

Panicking at the end of the game, injuries and poor umpiring decisions are given as three reasons that we have lost close games this year. But look at the close games and ask yourselves, all things being equal did we deserve to win those games?

There were 4 games under 15 that we won. Brisbane by 5 points, Adelaide by 5 points, Richmond by 14 points and Melbourne by 10 points. Adelaide, Richmond and Melbourne I felt we were the better team for most of the game, even when we went behind in the Adelaide and Melbourne games. Brisbane we played a poor last quarter but overall would have been stiff to have lost.

4 games were lost by under 15 points. I don't think anyone would say we were unlucky in the Freo game. Paddy and Robbie were injured but we should have eaten them for breakfast. Hawthorn, Adelaide and West Coast were all less than a goal and much has been said on the Hawthorn game about the umpiring but putting that aside we didn't play well at all in that game. Rocky onto Mitchell happened much too late. The second Showdown was overshadowed by a score review but their inaccuracy kept us in it and we were ahead for a good part of the last quarter.
Of the three the West Coast game was the one where bad luck could be said to play a part, although we went defensive too easily and made mistakes at the end. Three players going down was cruel but even then we had chances. Taking time off the mark was not always a good idea as it allowed them to get players back and often gave them possession back. Beaten by two goals in the last 90 seconds, some may say bad luck, I say bad play.

So 4-4 in games under 15 points. The wins we were marginally the better, in the 4 losses we were unlucky to lose one of them.

2017 R15 v. Richmond could be on the list, too. We lost by 13, but outscored the Tigers (23-21).

We were leading during Q3 by 15 points (5.12:42 - 3.9:27). After that, Richmond kicked 8.1:49 against our 3.3:21. Tigers were 19 points ahead when we kicked the last score of the game too little too late (a goal).

With last season's EF, and our 2017 victory over the Saints, we would be 5-6 in close games over the past 2 years.

 

[Boss351]

so one thing for certain, we lose the unlosable games in some unlucky but often the most unforgivable ways

weak minds, skills, structures, gameplan, composure and leadership, we s**t the bed, not sure we can fix them all ...cupcakes dog.gif