2006 crop

[mojo31]

Excellent stuff mojo, umm if you have some time can you also put some comparisons of these young guns with some players in the AFL? Im not asking you to put them to see if they'll turn into them or anything but to see what sort of playing style they'll have say like a Sellar has signs of a Cox etc..

Scott Gumbleton : Aggressive CHF and a very big already. Jonathan Brown in style.

Lachlan Hansen : Versatile KPP in the Scott Lucas mold. Taller and faster and can kick both feet . Plays forward like Nick Riewoldt and back like a taller version of Leppitsch 9when he was younger and fully fit).

Bryce Gibbs : Footy smart utility/midfielder in the James Hird mold. Reminds me of Ryan Griffen a little with his composure and reading of the play and way he moves.

Mitch Thorp : Very quick KPP who can really play anywhere with his athleticism. Similar to Tarrant on the lead when playing forward but likely to be a better contested mark and is a better kick. Down back he reminds me of Clement/McPhee (only taller than both already at only 17).

James Sellar : Very mobile ruck who might develop into a KPP. Similar to Justin Longmuir from Fremantle in style but will likely be taller when finished growing and is more athletic. Think of a player who moves like Goodes but plays taller and takes more contested marks.

Yes I know its pretty frightening how good these 5 are.
Anybody who has a pick inside the top 5 will be very happy.

 

[mojo31]

Brock O’Brien

Midfielder

180cms and 75 kgs.
Peel Thunder.

Physical player suited to traffic and congestion. Thrives on the contest and has a good strong body already. Impressed at the U18 Championships for Western Australia and was used mainly as a defender there. Showed the ability to play close and also to attack at every opportunity. Used the ball well and showed agility and pace as well as picking the right option.
Clean ball handler who has the hands of a good midfielder and a complete game at this early stage. Tough player who runs through and around similar sized players and will take his time to dispose of the ball. Very versatile and really could develop anywhere.
Managed to play senior football for Peel Thunder in the WAFL last year which is quite a feat for a 16 year old.
Not lightning quick but has good pace and an all around game which belies his age.
Hard and classy at the same time.

Predicted : 10 to 15.

Jack Riewoldt

Key position player (both ends)

193cms and 83 kgs.
Clarence (Tasmania)

Very impressive at the U18 Championships and stood out for Tasmania. Played all over the ground and showed he was up standard as a forward or as a back. Looks like his cousin Nick and moves like him. Not as athletic (who is?) but has good pace and endurance and the trademark long searching lead of Nick. Also showed the ability to play as a key defender and looked very comfortable there organising the defenders and using his body. Read the play and was not caught out and was good in the 1 on 1 contests.
Clean handler of the ball and especially above his head. Capable of taking a pack mark and playing on stronger and physical opponents when up forward. Showed his class and maturity by dominating in the finals in Tasmania for Clarence where he played as key forward and kicked 4 and 5 goals in successive weeks and took a lot of strong marks and was there best finals player.
Was targeted in those games from his opponents but never shirked the issue and was impressed with that. This is not TAC cup where the slightest indiscretion is picked up but a pretty physical and rough style.
A good kick and fine athlete who is tough, versatile and already a good size.

Predicted : 6 to 7 (with Selwood). A slight drop down from the top 5 at this stage. Would likely to still have gone at 1 in the 2005 draft if available though.

 

[Muji]

thx for the insight very interesting.. excellent stuff dude

 

[Effes]

You'd think we'd be a certainty for a top 5 pick


































*runs for cover*

 

[mojo31]

Jackson Sheringham

Wing/midfiield
178cms and 73 kgs.

Geelong Falcons player and brother of Ted who was rookied by Geelong in the 2004 draft.
Very pacy and skilled player. Capable of carrying the ball and breaking the lines. Very good disposal and is a classy winger who given space and time is damaging.

Had a good year in the TAC and finished 3rd in the best and fairest for the Falcons Played mainly wing but also some runs on the ball and down back. Versatile and has had a good grounding with 18 games in the TAC last year. Best suited to the wing at the moment.
Would like to see him grow some more and fill out and develop the inside part of his game and become an onballer. Work on his contested ball winning ability to go with his running power.
Good tackler who has a good workrate and stays involved in the game and is prepared to work both ways. Very good prospect who is very clean with his use of the ball and is clever and quick. When he adds some more weight to break tackles he will be even better.

The type of player Carlton should be targeting with there second round pick.

Predicted : 10 to 20.

 

[mojo31]

Clayton Collard

Midfielder
180cms and 76kgs.

An aboriginal midfielder from Western Australia who plays with South Fremantle (same club as Leroy Jetta).

Very good kick of the ball and has good distance with it. Very smart player who is capable of playing as a rebounding defender and playing tight on his opponent when needed. Then move forward and snag a goal with good goal sense and his smarts.
Adds to that versatility by being able to play as quality midfielder who can win the ball in contested situations. Also played on the wing and shown himself to be a very complete player for his age.
Quiet physically developed and has a strong body but it is not that much in advance of others to dominate with it. Therefore it is his skills and talent rather than pushing around smaller opponents that stand out. Would not call him express but he has goodish pace and is definitely above average.

Just a smooth mover who is quite effortless and anticipates well. A combination of athletic ability and football smarts to go with versatility means he is a very good prospect.

Predicted : 12 to 20.

 

[Philhawk]

Mojo , in your opinion , how would you bracket these players ???

Forwards

Midfielders

Ruckmen

Backs

Just interested to see how you personally rank them by position ...

 

[Silvagnis]

Jackson Sheringham

Wing/midfiield
178cms and 73 kgs.

Geelong Falcons player and brother of Ted who was rookied by Geelong in the 2004 draft.
Very pacy and skilled player. Capable of carrying the ball and breaking the lines. Very good disposal and is a classy winger who given space and time is damaging.

Had a good year in the TAC and finished 3rd in the best and fairest for the Falcons Played mainly wing but also some runs on the ball and down back. Versatile and has had a good grounding with 18 games in the TAC last year. Best suited to the wing at the moment.
Would like to see him grow some more and fill out and develop the inside part of his game and become an onballer. Work on his contested ball winning ability to go with his running power.
Good tackler who has a good workrate and stays involved in the game and is prepared to work both ways. Very good prospect who is very clean with his use of the ball and is clever and quick. When he adds some more weight to break tackles he will be even better.

The type of player Carlton should be targeting with there second round pick.

Predicted : 10 to 20.

Tommi Johnstone?

 

[Muji]

I'd like to know who we'd talk in the 10-30 bracket area come draft day this year. Any thoughts after the usual suspects mojo? or anyone?

 

[mojo31]

Tommi Johnstone?

Would rank all the midfielders I have written up as in front of Tommi at this stage. If we use the 3rd round pick to take Sammy Sheldon then that means a 2nd round pick would need to be used to take Tommi.

If I had a choice I woiuld take my chances in taking Tommi with a later pick or putting him on the rookie list. That will mean he would have to grow and fill out some more abd have a very good year in the TAC.

 

[mojo31]

I'd like to know who we'd talk in the 10-30 bracket area come draft day this year. Any thoughts after the usual suspects mojo? or anyone?

Likely scenario for Carlton.

Finish bottom 4. Take Sammy with a 3rd round father/son pick. Delist 7 to 8 and promote 2 to 3 from the rookie list.

1st round) best available player. Full stop. End of discussion. Whoever that is. My choice is Lachlan Hansen at this stage. Gumbleton is very similar to Kennedy and would prefer other players out of the top 5 given the choice now. So thats Gibbs, Thorp or Sellar (if he grows some more to be a full to be a full time ruck at AFL level) if Hansen is gone. I would not 'reach' for Selwood if any of these is available. We might need him but cant pass up a gun for a "very good player". Yes there is a class difference at this stage.

2nd round ) Take best available if a gun slips through (yes it happens sometimes). If that does not happen and what is left is similar talenetd players then take a quick, skillful midfielder. No players with kicking problems. No players with a question mark on there ball winning ability. Must be quick and agile at the contest.
Albert Proud and Leroy Jetta come straight away to mind.

3rd round) Sammy Sheldon (depending on his development). Alternatively if he does not come up and Tommi Johnston improves out of sight (he will need to) then take Tommi. If neither of these 2 are taken then again same as for the 2nd round pick we target another speedy midfielder with skill. There are plenty of prospects. Urquhart, Sherringham or Petterd might survive this far down (unlikely).

4th round) I am not Nostradamus

5th round ) see 4th round.


A hard decision needs to be made with the abundance of talls at the club. They all cannot devlop if they are played out of position.
Edwards, Raso, Bower, Flint as tall defenders in the reserves and either Hartlett or Livo depending on who gets the senior gig will also mean thats 5 likely tall defenders just in the VFL.
Seniors has 1 of Harts/Livo plus Saddington and Thornton with Lance likely to also be used there at times.

Then the forwards are again a lot of players to choose from with Waite, Fev, Fisher, Lance and Setanta for the seniors. Deluca even and players like Deluca and Bryan who can pinch hit there.
Then Kennedy coming through as well means it will be hard to fit all in.

So the word "trade" needs to be thought about. To get us some picks in that 10 to 20 range to pick up another midfielder.
Duds wont cut it and need to be a good player. I would name some scenarios but will leave that for another day.

If Batson and Aisake dont develop as ruckman in 2006 then we might have to consider Sellar with our first pick or Leunberger with our second pick (likely need to move up our 2nd pick to get him).
Brent Renouf would aslo be a chance.

Hope that helps. I know its all a bit confusing.

 

[mojo31]

Mojo , in your opinion , how would you bracket these players ???

Forwards

Midfielders

Ruckmen

Backs

Just interested to see how you personally rank them by position ...

The overall ranking is at the end of the profile on each player. Just based on what I think at this very early stage about a player. Of course some will not develop as hoped and others will more than expected. Some of the talls might grow even more and become ruckman size.



Forwards

1) Gumbleton – style like Jonathan Brown. Similar to Josh Kennedy this year only more athletic and a better mark and kick. Contested marking ,aggressive, physical player who has everything to be a gun CHF at AFL level.
2) Thorp – as a forward he is like Tarrant/McPharlin. Fast and make a long lead and a big spring to take a strong mark. Better kick than both of them and also has endurance to go with explosiveness. Can also play back. See him as a full forward long term.
3) Riewoldt – less athletic than his cousin Nick but still is a fine mover and a strong mark and a good kick. Reads the play and presents and has a good work ethic and plays in front. Not as spectacular as Mitch Thorp (also from Tasmania) or as athletic but a fine quality key position player who has size already. Think his best position will be as a CHB but his form in Tasmania at the end of last year up forward was very strong and might need a change of opinion. Will see how he goes this year but as a forward I would have Thorp and Gumbleton in front at this stage.
4) Hansen- Played there in 2006 at the start of the season and looked good but not outstanding. More suited to CHB but will likely get play at CHF this year and see how he goes then.

Backs

1) Hansen Gun who dominated the TAC at CHB.
2) Riewdoldt prefer him there than as a forward at this stage.
3) Mitch Thorp very versatile and fast. Composed. Prfeer him forward but shown talent here.
4) Eric MACKENZIE key position defender from WA who is rugged and tough.

Midfielders

1) Selwood 100% pure midfielder.
2) Gibbs taller and more skilled but a forward as well and not a pure midfilder at this stage.
3) Proud complete player.
4) Bachar Houli pace, injuries and weight will be issues for him. Seriously talented natural player.
5) Jetta goal sneak who needs to round out his game to be a midfielder but has serious talent.
6 to 10) Collard, Petterd, Sherringham, Urquhardt and O'Brien would all be about equal.

In 5 minutes I will likely have a different opinion though.

Sellar would be the best ruck prospect if he grows. He is 195 when measured at a just turned 16 in March last year so he could well be 200cms by Novemeber this year. Have to wait and see.
Leunberger looks good to me and is much better than Bailey (taken at 18) last year. Renouf would be the 3rd best ruck prospect.

Overall the 5 are clearly in front.
then 6 and 7 are Selwood and Riewoldt and then after that the fun and games being with about 20 players who are pretty similar in talent and it will be up to recruiters to distinguish them and perhaps based on team needs.
All just my opionion at this very early stage.

 

[Philhawk]

Sellar sounds the most exciting of the crop I must say , im a bit concerned about his mobility and how mobile he will be if he keeps growing !!!

 

[Muji]

thx mojo very well thougth out, we should elect you as the new carlton recruitment manager

 

[Hu$$ey]

Went and saw Houli on monday, still injured from his achilles, the boot comes off in one week when he will start training.

 

[Blue70]

Thanks Mojo, the details you provide are awesome and a great read. You certainly have a very good insight into footy issues, have you thought about contacting the club to assist prior to the draft/trading period?

 

[Hu$$ey]

Mojo, can you please write up Brett Renouf's profile? I noticed him as a thumping, accurate kicking ruckman, who are pretty rare to find these days so if you could write it up please.

 

[mojo31]

Mojo, can you please write up Brett Renouf's profile? I noticed him as a thumping, accurate kicking ruckman, who are pretty rare to find these days so if you could write it up please.

Brett Renouf

Ruck

200cms and 86 kgs.
Born 3/5/88.

Giant ruck from the Southport club in Queendsland. Played for Qld in the U18 Championships in Division 2 and acquitted himself well. Is quite mobile for that size and possesses a good leap as well as is a natural ruck who directs his taps well. Uses his body well in rucking contests and seems to understand how to change his tactics depending on what the other ruckmen is doing.
Played forward in 1 of the games and kicked a couple of goals and is a reliable kick as well as giving it an impressive roost to get a lot of distance. Unusual for most ruckmen and is a real bonus.
Not convinced about him in marking contests and as for most giants he drops a lot of marks. This is pretty typical and especially for his age but would like to see him straightening himself up and really going at it like his life depends on it.
Would not say he is a natural at moving around the ground and knowing where to run to and where to take position. Looks a little lost at times and will need to really improve that aspect of his game. To read the play better and be smarter with his movements over the ground.
So at the moment is a very good prospect as a tap ruckman with size and a good leap who will need to work on the around the game work and his marking.
Pretty skinny body but for his age is not a problem and wont require 5 years to be AFL ready. Likely be 5 kgs heavier by the draft anyway.

Prediction : 20 to 30. Really could be anywhere as he is a very good prospect. Depends on how much a club needs a ruck and if Sellar (almost certain) and Leunberger (very likely) are gone already.

 

[Hu$$ey]

OK thanks for that, now the main reason I asked for his profile was because I wanted to know where you ranked him.

So now, hypothetically speaking, my next question is this: If Carlton delist Deluca/Bryan/Batson (one or two of them) and end up getting a pick around 5-7 and both Sellar and Selwood are available who do we pick considering that Renouf and Sheringham would most like be available by the time our next pick comes around.

In other words, with the above delistments, which combination would suit our situation and needs better: Sellar + Sheringham or Selwood + Renouf?

Thanks for the profile, great work as always.

 

[LukeHodge15]

Bachar Houli

Midfielder

179cms and 83 kgs.
Western Jets in TAC.

Very clean and composed midfielder. Tremendous skills by foot and given space and time he will be very damaging. Long kicking as well as accurate.
Hard at the ball and man and possesses a natural physical edge to his game that really cannot be taught. Very good in contested situations and is clean with his hands under pressure and is s smart player. Has vision and awareness and plays the game as if everyone else is in slow motion.
A little to 1 dimensional in being attacking and wont work hard enough the other way and be defensive. Need to work that out in his game.
Not quick and is a stocky build already. Worry about possible weight problems, OP and the dreaded “modified program”.
3rd in the Jets best and fairest and only played 7 games.
Made the final 25 for Vic Metro in the announced squads. Had ankle problems and missed a couple of games and then developed stress fractures in his back.
Very good around goals and has a natural instinct for them and kicked a number in the TAC last year before the injury.

I am sure of the outlook for Bachar and how he is progressing so I wont comment on that. Clearly stress fractures are a very serious injury and anyone who follows cricket would know how much of an effect they can have on the future of a player. It is football rather than a fast bowler though and you would think it would be a lot less stress on the back than trying to bowl fast in cricket.


Not an athlete but a true footballer who has qualities that cannot not be taught and if he can overcome injury concerns then could develop into a fine player. Might not quite fit the profile of a skinny athlete that clubs seem to go for but the fact is he can use the ball at a high level and is very clever around goals and gathering possessions around the ground. By all means look hard at the prognosis of how his body will stand up in the future and also his character to do the hard work to not develop ‘Dean Rioli weight issues”. However don’t question that he has talents that more athletic players do not have and most likely never will.


PREDICTED : 10 TO 20.

never seen this kid play, but from reports i have heard from people who have.......... .......watch out AFL.........injurys aside.........bachar is coming .........minimum top 5 i have heard, cant wait to see him play this year.

 

[theorangeapple]

Top read Mojo, you definitley know your stuff. What is your background? How do you get to see these kids play? Hobbie?

Anyway, onto the draft. Imagine having a PP and being able to snare say a Sellar and Hansen. The mind boggles. What is happening with the PP for next year? Has the criteria definitley been changed?

 

[mojo31]

never seen this kid play, but from reports i have heard from people who have.......... .......watch out AFL.........injurys aside.........bachar is coming .........minimum top 5 i have heard, cant wait to see him play this year.

A little bit overhyped on BF is Houli I think. Top5 in a normal draft is not out of the question but he has has injury concerns, a developed body already and possible weight problems in the future. As well as a very strong draft which might put him in the later first round.
Time will tell as always I suppose.

 

[Silvagnis]

Anyway, onto the draft. Imagine having a PP and being able to snare say a Sellar and Hansen.

I'd cream myself if they hadn't been changed and we had landed two top five picks next year!

The mind boggles. What is happening with the PP for next year? Has the criteria definitley been changed?

I'd love to get a Hansen and Jetta, but a Hansen and Collard would suffice if Carlton do that poorly.

 

[mojo31]

OK thanks for that, now the main reason I asked for his profile was because I wanted to know where you ranked him.

So now, hypothetically speaking, my next question is this: If Carlton delist Deluca/Bryan/Batson (one or two of them) and end up getting a pick around 5-7 and both Sellar and Selwood are available who do we pick considering that Renouf and Sheringham would most like be available by the time our next pick comes around.

In other words, with the above delistments, which combination would suit our situation and needs better: Sellar + Sheringham or Selwood + Renouf?

Thanks for the profile, great work as always.

Will have 1 less ruckman on the list at the end of the year. Either delist or trade them. Think Aisake has real potential and prefer him to be peserveerd with and not to get a ruck in the next draft.
Unless they simply are to good to be overlooked and they are just left for us.

For example Leunberger at our 2nd round pick would be taken if allowed to fall that far.
Renouf at our 3rd round pick (if no father/sons)
Sellar with a pick in the 10 to 20 range if we traded to get it and we was overlooked.

All very unlikely scenarios.

Prefer to take best available first round , midfielder 2nd round inless an obviosly better player is available, Sammy or a midfielder 3rd round if a top prospect does not slip through.

Then trade a tall or ruck if the youngsters push through and make a senior player look a little surplus to need and take another midfielder.

O'Brien, Collard, Jetta, Sherringham, Proud, Urquhardt, Petterd, Houli, Boak are 9 off the top of my head. You add the top 5 plus Riewoldt, Selwood, Benjamin ,2 rucks in Renouf and Leunberger, Eric Mackenzie, Grant Weeks, Alex Lee and about 10 others and suddenly there are 30 strong names.

Thats my brief answer. Will make it more detailed on Monday.

Have a good weekend everybody.

 

[mojo31]

Top read Mojo, you definitley know your stuff. What is your background? How do you get to see these kids play? Hobbie?

Anyway, onto the draft. Imagine having a PP and being able to snare say a Sellar and Hansen. The mind boggles. What is happening with the PP for next year? Has the criteria definitley been changed?

PP has changed. 2nd round now if you qualify over 1 year of less than 18 points. So 4 wins or less.
PP first round if you do that over 2 years. So thats 8 wins or 32 points and less over 2 years to get a first round PP.

So that measn the best any club can hope for in 2006 is an extra 2nd round pick.


1 to 16 in the draft will come down to final ladder position or trade.
Anyone who does not make finals will be getting a gun in 2006.
Clubs I dont think will be passing so early in the draft either and be using later picks.

Its very high quality (understatement) and very deep (even bigger understatement).
Even smaller markets like Tasmania and Queensland are sticked for depth and guns.
You wont need for me to tell you how strong WA looks for next year with the usual suspects over there.

Will continue all this on Monday. Thanks everybody.