Draft Review 2006 - Redo the 2006 Draft

[SaintsSeptember]

Saints were pretty ordinary.
Armitage is a solid player but not draft pick 9 solid.
Brad Howard must be one of the worst draft choices ever.
Poor Jarryd Allen was injured and had to quit footy.

Geary and Jones in the rookie draft probably the saving grace, but gee there were some good rookies recruited by others that year.

 

[Wargreymon90]

Gray struggles to get on the park Lindsay Thomas much better, Westoff comparable to Lachy Hansen, Westhoff probably had better career but I feel like they're both about the same player right now, Stewart I rate as a decent player but gets dropped and is in and out of the team, which leaves Goldstein and Boak. I think if you went around the competition and asked teams if they'd rather have a star ruckmen or a star midfielder they'd say a ruckmen, they're much harder to find and take way longer to develop.

I would say that a star ruckman is more important when the ruckman is someone like natnui. If its out of Boak and Goldstein, id take Boak easily. Others may disagree, and that's fair enough,

The fact that Hansen was pick 3 and Westhoff was pick 71 and you can say that Westhoff has had the better career, highlights that north clearly screwed up that pick. Yes he's a handy player, but there were many star players missed.

I can't really make an argument for gray against Thomas at the moment as gray is coming back from a horrific knee injury. But gray is a better midfielder, and the more talented player

 

[cotter101]

1. Joel Selwood
2. Josh Kennedy
3. Ben Reid
4. Tom Hawkins
5. Travis Boak
6. Matthew Leuenberger
7. James Frawley
8. Bryce Gibbs
9. Kurt Tippett
10. Todd Goldstein

That's off the top of my head, so I probably forgot one or two players.

 

[Daz]

I would say that a star ruckman is more important when the ruckman is someone like natnui. If its out of Boak and Goldstein, id take Boak easily. Others may disagree, and that's fair enough,

The fact that Hansen was pick 3 and Westhoff was pick 71 and you can say that Westhoff has had the better career, highlights that north clearly screwed up that pick. Yes he's a handy player, but there were many star players missed.

I can't really make an argument for gray against Thomas at the moment as gray is coming back from a horrific knee injury. But gray is a better midfielder, and the more talented player

Hansen's a tough one to rank. He's played a lot of s**t football over the course of his career but his best is genuinely elite. He's been our best player since moving to defence.

 

[CaneGarner]

This Top 60 is based on a statistical formula which considers the value of a player over a career based on games, AFLCA votes and AA selection. It's based on output to date - not potential or talent. I think it undervalues talls for drafts as recent as 2006 due to the fact that they tend to develop later (for example Eric MacKenzie and Scott Gumbleton). Interested in people's thoughts!

1. Joel Selwood (National Draft pick 7)
2. Josh P Kennedy (National Draft Father/Son pick 40)
3. Tom Hawkins (National Draft Father/Son pick 41)
4. Travis Boak (National Draft pick 5)
5. Jack Riewoldt (National Draft pick 13)
6. James Frawley (National Draft pick 12)
7. Ben Reid (National Draft pick 8)
8. Bryce Gibbs (National Draft pick 1)
9. Kurt Tippett (National Draft pick 32)
10. Justin Westhoff (National Draft pick 71)
11. Shaun Grigg (National Draft pick 19)
12. David Armitage (National Draft pick 9)
13. Sam Jacobs (Rookie Draft pick 1)
14. David Rodan (National Draft pick 86)
15. Todd Goldstein (National Draft pick 37)
16. Lachlan Hansen (National Draft pick 3)
17. Matthew Leuenberger (National Draft pick 4)
18. Bachar Houli (National Draft pick 42)
19. Lindsay Thomas (National Draft pick 53)
20. Jarrod Harbrow (Rookie Draft pick 27)
21. Clinton Jones (Rookie Draft pick 9)
22. Aaron Edwards (National Draft pick 82)
23. Sharrod Wellingham (Rookie Draft pick 10)
24. Robbie Gray (National Draft pick 55)
25. Michael Jamison (Rookie Draft pick 17)
26. Leroy Jetta (National Draft Priority pick 18)
27. Josh Hill (National Draft pick 61)
28. Leigh Adams (Rookie Draft pick 3)
29. Colin Garland (National Draft pick 46)
30. Tom Lonergan (Rookie Draft pick 50)
31. Jarryn Geary (Rookie Draft pick 58)
32. Jake King (Rookie Draft pick 24)
33. Chris Dawes (National Draft pick 28)
34. David MacKay (National Draft pick 48)
35. Eric MacKenzie (National Draft pick 29)
36. Alwyn Davey (National Draft pick 36)
37. Shane Edwards (National Draft pick 26)
38. Tyson Goldsack (National Draft pick 63)
39. Nathan Brown (National Draft pick 10)
40. Will Schofield (National Draft pick 50)
41. Paul Stewart (National Draft pick 23)
42. Matt Campbell (Rookie Draft pick 34)
43. Andrejs Everitt (National Draft pick 11)
44. Martin Clarke (Rookie Draft pick 40)
45. Ricky Petterd (National Draft pick 30)
46. Mitchell Brown (National Draft pick 16)
47. Jesse White (National Draft pick 79)
48. Kyle Reimers (National Draft pick 47)
49. Brent Renouf (National Draft pick 24)
50. Shaun Hampson (National Draft Priority pick 17)
51. Brent Macaffer (Rookie Draft pick 26)
52. Matthew Suckling (Rookie Draft pick 22)
53. Nathan Krakouer (National Draft pick 39)
54. Sam Gibson (Rookie Draft pick 37)
55. James Sellar (National Draft pick 14)
56. Sam Sheldon (National Draft pick 70)
57. Gavin Urquhart (National Draft pick 21)
58. Daniel Connors (National Draft pick 58)
59. Beau Maister (Rookie Draft pick 64)
60. Scott Gumbleton (National Draft pick 2)

 

[HBFlanker]

This Top 60 is based on a statistical formula which considers the value of a player over a career based on games, AFLCA votes and AA selection. It's based on output to date - not potential or talent. I think it undervalues talls for drafts as recent as 2006 due to the fact that they tend to develop later (for example Eric MacKenzie and Scott Gumbleton). Interested in people's thoughts!

1. Joel Selwood (National Draft pick 7)
2. Josh P Kennedy (National Draft Father/Son pick 40)
3. Tom Hawkins (National Draft Father/Son pick 41)
4. Travis Boak (National Draft pick 5)
5. Jack Riewoldt (National Draft pick 13)
6. James Frawley (National Draft pick 12)
7. Ben Reid (National Draft pick 8)
8. Bryce Gibbs (National Draft pick 1)
9. Kurt Tippett (National Draft pick 32)
10. Justin Westhoff (National Draft pick 71)
11. Shaun Grigg (National Draft pick 19)
12. David Armitage (National Draft pick 9)
13. Sam Jacobs (Rookie Draft pick 1)
14. David Rodan (National Draft pick 86)
15. Todd Goldstein (National Draft pick 37)
16. Lachlan Hansen (National Draft pick 3)
17. Matthew Leuenberger (National Draft pick 4)
18. Bachar Houli (National Draft pick 42)
19. Lindsay Thomas (National Draft pick 53)
20. Jarrod Harbrow (Rookie Draft pick 27)
21. Clinton Jones (Rookie Draft pick 9)
22. Aaron Edwards (National Draft pick 82)
23. Sharrod Wellingham (Rookie Draft pick 10)
24. Robbie Gray (National Draft pick 55)
25. Michael Jamison (Rookie Draft pick 17)
26. Leroy Jetta (National Draft Priority pick 18)
27. Josh Hill (National Draft pick 61)
28. Leigh Adams (Rookie Draft pick 3)
29. Colin Garland (National Draft pick 46)
30. Tom Lonergan (Rookie Draft pick 50)
31. Jarryn Geary (Rookie Draft pick 58)
32. Jake King (Rookie Draft pick 24)
33. Chris Dawes (National Draft pick 28)
34. David MacKay (National Draft pick 48)
35. Eric MacKenzie (National Draft pick 29)
36. Alwyn Davey (National Draft pick 36)
37. Shane Edwards (National Draft pick 26)
38. Tyson Goldsack (National Draft pick 63)
39. Nathan Brown (National Draft pick 10)
40. Will Schofield (National Draft pick 50)
41. Paul Stewart (National Draft pick 23)
42. Matt Campbell (Rookie Draft pick 34)
43. Andrejs Everitt (National Draft pick 11)
44. Martin Clarke (Rookie Draft pick 40)
45. Ricky Petterd (National Draft pick 30)
46. Mitchell Brown (National Draft pick 16)
47. Jesse White (National Draft pick 79)
48. Kyle Reimers (National Draft pick 47)
49. Brent Renouf (National Draft pick 24)
50. Shaun Hampson (National Draft Priority pick 17)
51. Brent Macaffer (Rookie Draft pick 26)
52. Matthew Suckling (Rookie Draft pick 22)
53. Nathan Krakouer (National Draft pick 39)
54. Sam Gibson (Rookie Draft pick 37)
55. James Sellar (National Draft pick 14)
56. Sam Sheldon (National Draft pick 70)
57. Gavin Urquhart (National Draft pick 21)
58. Daniel Connors (National Draft pick 58)
59. Beau Maister (Rookie Draft pick 64)
60. Scott Gumbleton (National Draft pick 2)

Wow, how can you possible have him at 15. Have a look at picks 10-14.

Shocking call

 

[cotter101]

This Top 60 is based on a statistical formula which considers the value of a player over a career based on games, AFLCA votes and AA selection. It's based on output to date - not potential or talent. I think it undervalues talls for drafts as recent as 2006 due to the fact that they tend to develop later (for example Eric MacKenzie and Scott Gumbleton). Interested in people's thoughts!

1. Joel Selwood (National Draft pick 7)
2. Josh P Kennedy (National Draft Father/Son pick 40)
3. Tom Hawkins (National Draft Father/Son pick 41)
4. Travis Boak (National Draft pick 5)
5. Jack Riewoldt (National Draft pick 13)
6. James Frawley (National Draft pick 12)
7. Ben Reid (National Draft pick 8)
8. Bryce Gibbs (National Draft pick 1)
9. Kurt Tippett (National Draft pick 32)
10. Justin Westhoff (National Draft pick 71)
11. Shaun Grigg (National Draft pick 19)
12. David Armitage (National Draft pick 9)
13. Sam Jacobs (Rookie Draft pick 1)
14. David Rodan (National Draft pick 86)
15. Todd Goldstein (National Draft pick 37)
16. Lachlan Hansen (National Draft pick 3)
17. Matthew Leuenberger (National Draft pick 4)
18. Bachar Houli (National Draft pick 42)
19. Lindsay Thomas (National Draft pick 53)
20. Jarrod Harbrow (Rookie Draft pick 27)
21. Clinton Jones (Rookie Draft pick 9)
22. Aaron Edwards (National Draft pick 82)
23. Sharrod Wellingham (Rookie Draft pick 10)
24. Robbie Gray (National Draft pick 55)
25. Michael Jamison (Rookie Draft pick 17)
26. Leroy Jetta (National Draft Priority pick 18)
27. Josh Hill (National Draft pick 61)
28. Leigh Adams (Rookie Draft pick 3)
29. Colin Garland (National Draft pick 46)
30. Tom Lonergan (Rookie Draft pick 50)
31. Jarryn Geary (Rookie Draft pick 58)
32. Jake King (Rookie Draft pick 24)
33. Chris Dawes (National Draft pick 28)
34. David MacKay (National Draft pick 48)
35. Eric MacKenzie (National Draft pick 29)
36. Alwyn Davey (National Draft pick 36)
37. Shane Edwards (National Draft pick 26)
38. Tyson Goldsack (National Draft pick 63)
39. Nathan Brown (National Draft pick 10)
40. Will Schofield (National Draft pick 50)
41. Paul Stewart (National Draft pick 23)
42. Matt Campbell (Rookie Draft pick 34)
43. Andrejs Everitt (National Draft pick 11)
44. Martin Clarke (Rookie Draft pick 40)
45. Ricky Petterd (National Draft pick 30)
46. Mitchell Brown (National Draft pick 16)
47. Jesse White (National Draft pick 79)
48. Kyle Reimers (National Draft pick 47)
49. Brent Renouf (National Draft pick 24)
50. Shaun Hampson (National Draft Priority pick 17)
51. Brent Macaffer (Rookie Draft pick 26)
52. Matthew Suckling (Rookie Draft pick 22)
53. Nathan Krakouer (National Draft pick 39)
54. Sam Gibson (Rookie Draft pick 37)
55. James Sellar (National Draft pick 14)
56. Sam Sheldon (National Draft pick 70)
57. Gavin Urquhart (National Draft pick 21)
58. Daniel Connors (National Draft pick 58)
59. Beau Maister (Rookie Draft pick 64)
60. Scott Gumbleton (National Draft pick 2)

Without having a long look, all those blokes deserve to be higher.

 

[Carlo]

Also you have Matty Suckling at a stupid low position, Guys a gun.

 

[cmndstab]

It's a statistical formula. It's not going to get every player right.

 

[cotter101]

It's a statistical formula. It's not going to get every player right.

You mean stats aren't always correct?

 

[CaneGarner]

Thanks for the feedback. Agree that all those players are too low.

However - those players are all talls, so I would expect them to be undervalued (see my comments in the initial post). I don't think this invalidates the formula though - it's just that talls tend to rack up their AFLCA votes and AA selections in the latter parts of their careers.

As an example - Will Minson was picked up in 2002 and is ranked very highly under that formula, sitting fourth in his draft year behind only Watson, McVeigh and Goddard. However he got his first AA selection in 2013 - before that, he would have sat around 15.

 

[HBFlanker]

Thanks for the feedback. Agree that all those players are too low.

However - those players are all talls, so I would expect them to be undervalued (see my comments in the initial post). I don't think this invalidates the formula though - it's just that talls tend to rack up their AFLCA votes and AA selections in the latter parts of their careers.

As an example - Will Minson was picked up in 2002 and is ranked very highly under that formula, sitting fourth in his draft year behind only Watson, McVeigh and Goddard. However he got his first AA selection in 2013 - before that, he would have sat around 15.

So its a s**t formula

 

[CaneGarner]

Also you have Matty Suckling at a stupid low position, Guys a gun.

Different Matthew Suckling

 

[CaneGarner]

So its a s**t formula

Criticism noted. What if you ignore KPDs and rucks - what do you think of it then?

 

[CaneGarner]

One that jumps out at me as being wrong is Aaron Edwards ranking higher than Sharrod Wellingham. However simple fact is that Edwards has performed better in AFLCA voting than Wellingham. Possibly because Wellingham was competing for AFLCA votes with Swan, Pendles, Thomas, Cloke etc for the majority of his career to date. Very difficult to adjust for that though.

 

[cmndstab]

So its a s**t formula

As far as formulae go it looks pretty reasonable.

Your expectations of what a formula-based ranking can achieve are unrealistic.

 

[Ed D]

It's pretty limited working with AFLCA votes because those only go to the top 5-10 players each game, meaning if one player is continually doing their job but nothing special, like the defenders who aren't ranked well, they'll be outranked by a player who is in and out of the team but can kick a few goals one week and get votes for it.

Rodan is a good example of that. There's no he's been the 14th best player from the draft.

 

[Tulip]

My favourite Demons draft of the century. Left us a quality FB and CHB.

 

[Jade's]

This Top 60 is based on a statistical formula which considers the value of a player over a career based on games, AFLCA votes and AA selection. It's based on output to date - not potential or talent. I think it undervalues talls for drafts as recent as 2006 due to the fact that they tend to develop later (for example Eric MacKenzie and Scott Gumbleton). Interested in people's thoughts!

1. Joel Selwood (National Draft pick 7)
2. Josh P Kennedy (National Draft Father/Son pick 40)
3. Tom Hawkins (National Draft Father/Son pick 41)
4. Travis Boak (National Draft pick 5)
5. Jack Riewoldt (National Draft pick 13)
6. James Frawley (National Draft pick 12)
7. Ben Reid (National Draft pick 8)
8. Bryce Gibbs (National Draft pick 1)
9. Kurt Tippett (National Draft pick 32)
10. Justin Westhoff (National Draft pick 71)
11. Shaun Grigg (National Draft pick 19)
12. David Armitage (National Draft pick 9)
13. Sam Jacobs (Rookie Draft pick 1)
14. David Rodan (National Draft pick 86)
15. Todd Goldstein (National Draft pick 37)
16. Lachlan Hansen (National Draft pick 3)
17. Matthew Leuenberger (National Draft pick 4)
18. Bachar Houli (National Draft pick 42)
19. Lindsay Thomas (National Draft pick 53)
20. Jarrod Harbrow (Rookie Draft pick 27)
21. Clinton Jones (Rookie Draft pick 9)
22. Aaron Edwards (National Draft pick 82)
23. Sharrod Wellingham (Rookie Draft pick 10)
24. Robbie Gray (National Draft pick 55)
25. Michael Jamison (Rookie Draft pick 17)
26. Leroy Jetta (National Draft Priority pick 18)
27. Josh Hill (National Draft pick 61)
28. Leigh Adams (Rookie Draft pick 3)
29. Colin Garland (National Draft pick 46)
30. Tom Lonergan (Rookie Draft pick 50)
31. Jarryn Geary (Rookie Draft pick 58)
32. Jake King (Rookie Draft pick 24)
33. Chris Dawes (National Draft pick 28)
34. David MacKay (National Draft pick 48)
35. Eric MacKenzie (National Draft pick 29)
36. Alwyn Davey (National Draft pick 36)
37. Shane Edwards (National Draft pick 26)
38. Tyson Goldsack (National Draft pick 63)
39. Nathan Brown (National Draft pick 10)
40. Will Schofield (National Draft pick 50)
41. Paul Stewart (National Draft pick 23)
42. Matt Campbell (Rookie Draft pick 34)
43. Andrejs Everitt (National Draft pick 11)
44. Martin Clarke (Rookie Draft pick 40)
45. Ricky Petterd (National Draft pick 30)
46. Mitchell Brown (National Draft pick 16)
47. Jesse White (National Draft pick 79)
48. Kyle Reimers (National Draft pick 47)
49. Brent Renouf (National Draft pick 24)
50. Shaun Hampson (National Draft Priority pick 17)
51. Brent Macaffer (Rookie Draft pick 26)
52. Matthew Suckling (Rookie Draft pick 22)
53. Nathan Krakouer (National Draft pick 39)
54. Sam Gibson (Rookie Draft pick 37)
55. James Sellar (National Draft pick 14)
56. Sam Sheldon (National Draft pick 70)
57. Gavin Urquhart (National Draft pick 21)
58. Daniel Connors (National Draft pick 58)
59. Beau Maister (Rookie Draft pick 64)
60. Scott Gumbleton (National Draft pick 2)

How is Hawkins ahead of riewoldt????

 

[jabbers]

Because I was bored- Here are the draftees according to the AFL Ratings. Who would want to be a backman?

1. Joel Selwood (National Draft pick 7)
7. Josh P Kennedy (National Draft Father/Son pick 40)
24. Travis Boak (National Draft pick 5)
41. Todd Goldstein (National Draft pick 37)
57. Jack Riewoldt (National Draft pick 13)
69. Justin Westhoff (National Draft pick 71)
86. Bryce Gibbs (National Draft pick 1)
92. David Armitage (National Draft pick 9)
93. Tom Hawkins (National Draft Father/Son pick 41)
103. Shane Edwards (National Draft pick 26)
106. Lindsay Thomas (National Draft pick 53)
114. Colin Garland (National Draft pick 46)
127. Leigh Adams (Rookie Draft pick 3)
133. Josh Hill (National Draft pick 61)
141. Bachar Houli (National Draft pick 42)
145. Ben Reid (National Draft pick 8)
146. Jarrod Harbrow (Rookie Draft pick 27)
153. Sam Jacobs (Rookie Draft pick 1)
180. Kurt Tippett (National Draft pick 32)
187. Sharrod Wellingham (Rookie Draft pick 10)
193. David MacKay (National Draft pick 48)
195. Jarryn Geary (Rookie Draft pick 58)
196. Clinton Jones (Rookie Draft pick 9)
199. Tyson Goldsack (National Draft pick 63)
204. Will Schofield (National Draft pick 50)
211. Michael Jamison (Rookie Draft pick 17)
223. Leroy Jetta (National Draft Priority pick 18)
238. Andrejs Everitt (National Draft pick 11)
241. Eric MacKenzie (National Draft pick 29)
248. Shaun Grigg (National Draft pick 19)
252. Matthew Suckling (Rookie Draft pick 22)
280. Jake King (Rookie Draft pick 24)
291. Alwyn Davey (National Draft pick 36)
294. James Frawley (National Draft pick 12)
302. Lachlan Hansen (National Draft pick 3)
302. Lachlan Hansen (National Draft pick 3)
316. Sam Gibson (Rookie Draft pick 37)
320. Nathan Brown (National Draft pick 10)
326. Matthew Leuenberger (National Draft pick 4)
327. Chris Dawes (National Draft pick 28)
334. Martin Clarke (Rookie Draft pick 40)
335. Tom Lonergan (Rookie Draft pick 50)
338. Paul Stewart (National Draft pick 23)
363. Jesse White (National Draft pick 79)
368. David Rodan (National Draft pick 86)
370. Robbie Gray (National Draft pick 55)
394. Shaun Hampson (National Draft Priority pick 17)
429. Aaron Edwards (National Draft pick 82)
433. Mitchell Brown (National Draft pick 16)
453. Ricky Petterd (National Draft pick 30)
559. Brent Renouf (National Draft pick 24)
437. Brent Macaffer (Rookie Draft pick 26)
440. James Sellar (National Draft pick 14)
482. Scott Gumbleton (National Draft pick 2)

 

[Daz]

1. Selwood
2. Kennedy
3. Riewoldt
4. Hawkins
5. Tippett
6. Boak
7. Leuenberger
8. Goldstein
9. Reid
10. Frawley
11. Gibbs
12. Westhoff
13. Hansen
14. Armitage
15. MacKenzie
16. Thomas
17. Suckling
18. Jamison
19. Gray
20. Garland
21. Jacobs
22. Edwards
23. Brown
24. Wellingham
25. Grigg

 

[RobbieGray17]

 

[Wild Bill]

Agree - gun that should be AA this year.

 

[Wild Bill]

31 and 4 goals. He is a lock.

 

[HawkintheTuarts]

1-25

Joel Selwood
Travis Boak
Robbie Gray
Josh Kennedy
Tom Hawkins
Eric Mackenzie
Kurt Tippett
Bryce Gibbs
Todd Goldstein
Jack Riewoldt
Justin Westhoff
Matthew Leuenberger
Tom Lonergan
James Frawley
Sam Jacobs
Ben Reid
Nick Smith
Colin Garland
David Armitage
Jarrod Harbrow
Bachar Houli
Matt Suckling
Lindsay Thomas
Shane Edwards
Lachlan Hansen