2008 Odds

[Stronzo]

Perhaps the bookies are banking on some of the younger sides players running into the second year blues.

 

[Lach72]

Can't see the wood for the trees.

I am with Roundhouse, there was very little separating the teams from 2nd to 13th this year and with an ounce of luck/ couple of dodgey decisions not going against us / less injuries to the pacy runners etc we could easily have won 13-14 games.
Our best footy is as good as anyones.

We used 40 players in 2006 - the most of any team - the "injury plagues Eagles" used 34.

http://afl.allthestats.com/statistics/seasreview.php

If my aunty had jatz crackers board...

 

[Ripper]

If my aunty had jatz crackers board...

You can laugh Lach , but there is a definate corelation bewteen players used and Ladder position.

 

[Lach72]

You can laugh Lach , but there is a definate corelation bewteen players used and Ladder position.

To a degree I agree with you...however, there's always an excuse for us, isn't there?

You brought up the Eagles not turning over their players as much...Now, they went top four before going out in two tight games...

How many games did they get out of their 3 best players? Kerr played what, 15-17...Cousins 6? Judd played I reckon 12 games where he was fit. Embley is also a shadow of the player he was last year...They have no CHF who can last more than 2 seconds on the ground...

Now let's take Pavlich out for 12 games, Bell out for 5 or six and Josh Carr for 3/4 of the season...Plus, ah, lets say Luke McPharlinas a comparison for Embley.
How do you reckon we would go?

We lost players who while very handy are not in our top echelon...why did we not cover them?
How do the Eagles grind out wins with the absolute cream of the comp missing, how do Port grind out wins and make a GF with a team that is sprinkled with newbies, how do the kangaroos get to the last four after losing their best foward for the whole year???
Keep making excuses and saying things like "we were close and gee 11th comes after first", but the fact remains we were 11th and missing the finals...again...and the coach paid with his job.

 

[freo heave ho]

Maybe the bookies are looking at the fact that this year 3 out of the final 4 didn't play finals this year. So gor next year they're looking outside the 8.

That plus the similarity between us in 2007 and Geelong in 2006.

 

[Ripper]

To a degree I agree with you...however, there's always an excuse for us, isn't there?

You brought up the Eagles not turning over their players as much...Now, they went top four before going out in two tight games...

How many games did they get out of their 3 best players? Kerr played what, 15-17...Cousins 6? Judd played I reckon 12 games where he was fit. Embley is also a shadow of the player he was last year...They have no CHF who can last more than 2 seconds on the ground...

Now let's take Pavlich out for 12 games, Bell out for 5 or six and Josh Carr for 3/4 of the season...Plus, ah, lets say Luke McPharlinas a comparison for Embley.
How do you reckon we would go?

We lost players who while very handy are not in our top echelon...why did we not cover them?
How do the Eagles grind out wins with the absolute cream of the comp missing, how do Port grind out wins and make a GF with a team that is sprinkled with newbies, how do the kangaroos get to the last four after losing their best foward for the whole year???
Keep making excuses and saying things like "we were close and gee 11th comes after first", but the fact remains we were 11th and missing the finals...again...and the coach paid with his job.

Wasn't meant to be an excuse Lach , just reasons why the bookies have us at generous odds.

Without getting into a debate I would also point out that the Eagles ground out a 91 point loss , when they were forced to use the lower range of the 34 players they used.

The Roos may have lost there best forward but they used only 33 players , second only to the cats 31.

We had just 5 players play every game vs 7 for WC and 10 for the Roos.

Mostly through out the season those teams had settled lineups something that we managed to have at the end of 2006.

The upside is that players got games that they normally wouldn't have had (could have probably had few more IMO) which should be of benifit in 2008.

 

[summerthebat]

It is an interesting stat, but then again we did have n00bfest in the last game!

 

[DOCKER MAN]

I think we will finish in the Top 4 and i assume they think we are going to do a Geelong

 

[since82eags]

I think we will finish in the Top 4 and i assume they think we are going to do a Geelong

I thought Geelong started to rebuild in 1999 in the context of their recent history prior to this year 06 was a big surprise. Freo finishing in the top 4 in 06 was a surprise. But if you have a good clean out Ibbotson and Peake and Schammer can develop some more you never know.

 

[Keys]

Can't see the wood for the trees.

I am with Roundhouse, there was very little separating the teams from 2nd to 13th this year and with an ounce of luck/ couple of dodgey decisions not going against us / less injuries to the pacy runners etc we could easily have won 13-14 games.

Our best footy is as good as anyones.

We used 40 players in 2006 - the most of any team - the "injury plagues Eagles" used 34.

http://afl.allthestats.com/statistics/seasreview.php

I agree that the gap between 2nd and 13th wasn't great and for that reason it wouldn't take a great deal of improvement on game day for Freo to take a rise up the ladder. Other teams, like Brisbane, could say the same though.

As for the injury plagued Eagles using only 34 players, take into account that Butler, Sampi and Wooden were all pretty much unavailable for the year. Spangher was often injured and unavailable as well. Thomson was a speculative pick and would not have been considered a realistic chance of playing this year, not unlike Mourish.

With the exception of Houlihan we used pretty much everyone on our list that was available.

If this wasn't your board I'd suggest that the reason Freo used 40 players was they were turning over players trying to find someone decent. But it's your board so I won't.

On topic, surprised that Freo are at such short odds.

 

[Roundhouse]

How many games did they get out of their 3 best players? Kerr played what, 15-17...Cousins 6? Judd played I reckon 12 games where he was fit. Embley is also a shadow of the player he was last year...They have no CHF who can last more than 2 seconds on the ground...

Now let's take Pavlich out for 12 games, Bell out for 5 or six and Josh Carr for 3/4 of the season...Plus, ah, lets say Luke McPharlinas a comparison for Embley.
How do you reckon we would go?

We lost players who while very handy are not in our top echelon...why did we not cover them?

What a load of crud! We can't make excuses, but you're quick to offer up a shitload for the slime huh? Think about your Auntie having jatz crackers again!

Our top echelon circa 04/05 consisted of in no particular order, Bell, Hase, Jlo, Pav and Hadrill. We have had minimal impact from the three of those players since due to constant injury and re-injury.

We covered them well enough to make a Prelim last year.

While we take out Bell, Pav and Josh Carr can we put back those three players fully fit and add in Farmer and Sandi who each played around ten fit games this year?

You need to stop believing the media hype. The Weagles had a blessed run with injuries in 05 and 06 and thats what got them deep into the finals. When they got a few key injuries this year they couldn't win a final. Tough shite, so sorry, so sad. No excuses for us means none for them. If you are going to hold candlelight vigil to their poor "injured champions" you might as well go the whole hog and jump ship. You won't be missed.

And by the way, how the hell do you equate Embley being a front-running hack to us taking out McPharlin?

 

[Lach72]

What a load of crud! We can't make excuses, but you're quick to offer up a shitload for the slime huh? Think about your Auntie having jatz crackers again!

Our top echelon circa 04/05 consisted of in no particular order, Bell, Hase, Jlo, Pav and Hadrill. We have had minimal impact from the three of those players since due to constant injury and re-injury.

We covered them well enough to make a Prelim last year.

While we take out Bell, Pav and Josh Carr can we put back those three players fully fit and add in Farmer and Sandi who each played around ten fit games this year?

You need to stop believing the media hype. The Weagles had a blessed run with injuries in 05 and 06 and thats what got them deep into the finals. When they got a few key injuries this year they couldn't win a final. Tough shite, so sorry, so sad. No excuses for us means none for them. If you are going to hold candlelight vigil to their poor "injured champions" you might as well go the whole hog and jump ship. You won't be missed.
And by the way, how the hell do you equate Embley being a front-running hack to us taking out McPharlin?

Excuses? Read the post again...they made top four...we finished eleventh...they lost two finals by under a kick...we finished eleventh.
They got injuries to key players and finished top four for the season...we got injuries to one key player...Sandi...the others are bottom of the 22...and we finished eleventh...

And by the way shove a 4 x 2 up your arse...everytime someone doesn't agree with your agenda, we can all jump ship?

Embley's a front running hack? You really have no idea...

We finished eleventh...got it?

 

[Kram]

Excuses? Read the post again...they made top four...we finished eleventh...they lost two finals by under a kick...we finished eleventh.
They got injuries to key players and finished top four for the season...we got injuries to one key player...Sandi...the others are bottom of the 22...and we finished eleventh.

You're talking too realistically for the supporters with their head stuck up their arse.

Seriously, some of the exuses . .

 

[dockertor]

Excuses? Read the post again...they made top four...we finished eleventh...they lost two finals by under a kick...we finished eleventh.
They got injuries to key players and finished top four for the season...we got injuries to one key player...Sandi...the others are bottom of the 22...and we finished eleventh...

And by the way shove a 4 x 2 up your arse...everytime someone doesn't agree with your agenda, we can all jump ship?

Embley's a front running hack? You really have no idea...

We finished eleventh...got it?

I think you are underating the loss of peake, the wiz, johnno,des ect (I know not all were injuries) these guys are pretty important to us

 

[Lach72]

I think you are underating the loss of peake, the wiz, johnno,des ect (I know not all were injuries) these guys are pretty important to us

They are not Cousins, Kerr and Judd...that is the point.
Why can't we cover them?

 

[Ripper]

They are not Cousins, Kerr and Judd...that is the point.
Why can't we cover them?

WC have the depth to cover their midfield. Losing Glass , Cox & Lynch or Seaby would affect them much more IMO.

How would they be without both Cox & Seaby at the same time?

As it was they finished 5th.

 

[dominguez]

WC have the depth to cover their midfield. Losing Glass , Cox & Lynch or Seaby would affect them much more IMO.

How would they be without both Cox & Seaby at the same time?

As it was they finished 5th.

You could say that for practically every side though Rip, imagine if we lost Warnie and Sandilands together.

Infact I'd rather have Jamie Graham, Quench and Spandexman leading the ruck than Gilmore/Campbell/Matt Carr.

 

[Roundhouse]

You could say that for practically every side though Rip, imagine if we lost Warnie and Sandilands together.

Infact I'd rather have Jamie Graham, Quench and Spandexman leading the ruck than Gilmore/Campbell/Matt Carr.

Warnie became our second choice ruckman during the year out of necessity.

Heading in to 07 Jlo and Sandi were our first (only) choice ruck duo. We lost them for a season and half a season respectively.

 

[dominguez]

Warnie became our second choice ruckman during the year out of necessity.

Heading in to 07 Jlo and Sandi were our first (only) choice ruck duo. We lost them for a season and half a season respectively.

There was always a big chance that we'd get little from J-Lo in 2007 though. He looked proppy all summer, I was surprised when he lined up round one.

 

[Roundhouse]

Excuses? Read the post again...they made top four...we finished eleventh...they lost two finals by under a kick...we finished eleventh.
They got injuries to key players and finished top four for the season...we got injuries to one key player...Sandi...the others are bottom of the 22...and we finished eleventh...

And by the way shove a 4 x 2 up your arse...everytime someone doesn't agree with your agenda, we can all jump ship?

Embley's a front running hack? You really have no idea...

We finished eleventh...got it?

Yours would probably be a more accommodating fit I'm guessing.

Maybe you could try you Auntie's! You'd have to help her move the jatz crackers out of the way first of course.

 

[Roundhouse]

There was always a big chance that we'd get little from J-Lo in 2007 though. He looked proppy all summer, I was surprised when he lined up round one.

So we don't count losing him as a setback?

Maybe we shouldn't count losing Cousins as a setback for the Weagles then, he looked a bit shaky all summer too, and he was always a big chance to get injured when he came back.

 

[Clay Davis]

Can't see the wood for the trees.

I am with Roundhouse, there was very little separating the teams from 2nd to 13th this year and with an ounce of luck/ couple of dodgey decisions not going against us / less injuries to the pacy runners etc we could easily have won 13-14 games.

Our best footy is as good as anyones.

We used 40 players in 2006 - the most of any team - the "injury plagues Eagles" used 34.

http://afl.allthestats.com/statistics/seasreview.php

3 of those players used came in the last round (O'Brien, Haddrill, Dunn) after the disciplinary issues. Even Foster was blooded late, when the game was up.

That brings us to a more realistic 36 players used, sitting us around 10, which is where we ultimately finished. Collingwood used 38 players and was a kick away from the Grand Final.

I'm not saying that missing certain players didn't hurt us, but I don't think we can pin a very poor season on having injuries.

 

[dominguez]

So we don't count losing him as a setback?

Maybe we shouldn't count losing Cousins as a setback for the Weagles then, he looked a bit shaky all summer too, and he was always a big chance to get injured when he came back.

It certainly was a setback, but it wasn't a surprise. A bit like Nathan Brown at Richmond the year after the broken leg, any good games would have been a bonus more than an expectation. Longmuir was really strange. One day he'd look shot, a week later he'd look like he had taken a few big steps forward then a week later he'd be right back at square one. Really bad signs.

Cousins is a different kettle of fish. He's been able to combine drug use and playing well for almost a decade. I'd say at christmas they would have expected his priorities to switch but they didn't.

We're getting off track though. It's not a competition to see who has lost players for what reason. The competition is to win games of footy, and blaming injuries/suspensions is unacceptable regardless of the club.

 

[Roundhouse]

We're getting off track though. It's not a competition to see who has lost players for what reason. The competition is to win games of footy, and blaming injuries/suspensions is unacceptable regardless of the club.

And yet you are quick to argue that the Weagles injury setbacks far eclipsed ours.....strange.

Anyway, if we are getting back on track (which is apparently how we unworthy of short odds for the flag next year) I'd like to know what you would consider the right odds for Freo next year?

 

[dominguez]

And yet you are quick to argue that the Weagles injury setbacks far eclipsed ours.....strange.

Anyway, if we are getting back on track (which is apparently how we unworthy of short odds for the flag next year) I'd like to know what you would consider the right odds for Freo next year?

I never wrote anything about any sides injuries eclipsing anyone elses. Ripper compared the loss of Longmuir and Sandilands to the eagles losing Cox and Seaby, I simply pointed out that there was always a big chance that we'd get nothing from J-Lo and plans were already in place for Warnock's development to be fast tracked.

As far as odds go, I reckon $12 would be fair if we have Bell and Hasleby available next year. Bell's talent and leadership leave a massive hole, I'd say $18 or $21 would be fair assuming that he's going to hang up the boots.

I'll be extremely surprised if we go into round one at $9 unless we trade for another big name player. Neutrals won't be getting on at that price.