Analysis 2010/11 build vs 2017/18 build

[Snake_Baker]

In 2010/11 when Brad Scott took over we undertook a radical rebuild that saw us get 9 x 10+ goal beltings, including 2 x 100+ point beltings.

In 2012, we went 14-9 and played in a final. In 2013 we missed by a game and in 2014 we were top 4 finisher.

We copped 1 x 10+ goal belting last season.

IMO, we are already more advanced than we were at the end of 2010.

Discuss

 

[King Corey]

The 2010 list featured several players recruited under Laidley and Pagan who would go on to be proven as quality AFL players for the next 2-5 years:

• Petrie
• Hansen
• Tarrant
• Goldstein
• Thompson
• Grima
• McMahon
• Adams
• Harvey
• Rawlings
• Ziebell
• Wright
• Greenwood
• Thomas
• Swallow
• Firrito
• Wells

Imo there is less proven talent in the 20-30yo current group. Almost all of the above had provided more than a glimpse of AFL standard ability entering 2010.

Another factor to consider was that the 2009 draft allowed the list to be retooled with 5 picks inside the top 50. The 2016 and 2017 drafts have to be combined to match that.

Worth considering in the beltings discussion is the comparative quality of the leagues 2010 vs 2017. The 2010 Collingwood, St Kilda, Geelong and dogs sides were all superior to the last 2 premiers imo. Each finished with 121+ %.

Geelong's 147% in 2010 was clearly stronger than Adelaide's 136% (highest in 2017). Basically the top sides in 2010 routinely dismantled opponents whereas 2017 was a fairly even group with sides 5-6 boasting superior % to sides 2-4.

Objectively I'd say the 2010 list was superior containing more promising players as well as retaining some with Pagan era IP. Romantically I hope the current list with much less exposed AFL form proves more successful however, obviously.

 

[spurs]

The 2010 list featured several players recruited under Laidley and Pagan who would go on to be proven as quality AFL players for the next 2-5 years:

• Petrie
• Hansen
• Tarrant
• Goldstein
• Thompson
• Grima
• McMahon
• Adams
• Harvey
• Rawlings
• Ziebell
• Wright
• Greenwood
• Thomas
• Swallow
• Firrito
• Wells

Imo there is less proven talent in the 20-30yo current group. Almost all of the above had provided more than a glimpse of AFL standard ability entering 2010.

Another factor to consider was that the 2009 draft allowed the list to be retooled with 5 picks inside the top 50. The 2016 and 2017 drafts have to be combined to match that.

Worth considering in the beltings discussion is the comparative quality of the leagues 2010 vs 2017. The 2010 Collingwood, St Kilda, Geelong and dogs sides were all superior to the last 2 premiers imo. Each finished with 121+ %.

Geelong's 147% in 2010 was clearly stronger than Adelaide's 136% (highest in 2017). Basically the top sides in 2010 routinely dismantled opponents whereas 2017 was a fairly even group with sides 5-6 boasting superior % to sides 2-4.

Objectively I'd say the 2010 list was superior containing more promising players as well as retaining some with Pagan era IP. Romantically I hope the current list with much less exposed AFL form proves more successful however, obviously.

2010 is better, BUT we have had compromised drafts since then, so the quality of top 20 draft picks are lower. I think we have done well, but it's too early to tell. What is in our favour is the compromised drafts are over, and if their was going to ever be a time to rebuild it is NOW. LDU, Thomas, pick 1-5 from this year and next year will definitely help. The added advantage of having free agency will help us in the coming years, because we will become the destination club when our younger players become stronger and have experience. Throw in 2-3 gun free agents to our list with 3-4 gun draft picks and we are set for 2020. Maybe a comparison from 2010 to 2020 in Brads last year of contract would be better?

 

[King Corey]

One other thing that makes 2010 slightly misleading was that Petrie missed all but a half of footy due to injury while David Hale was a shell of a man that year. So we were bereft of a functioning forward structure.

 

[Snake_Baker]

The 2010 list featured several players recruited under Laidley and Pagan who would go on to be proven as quality AFL players for the next 2-5 years:

• Petrie
• Hansen
• Tarrant
• Goldstein
• Thompson
• Grima
• McMahon
• Adams
• Harvey
• Rawlings
• Ziebell
• Wright
• Greenwood
• Thomas
• Swallow
• Firrito
• Wells

Imo there is less proven talent in the 20-30yo current group. Almost all of the above had provided more than a glimpse of AFL standard ability entering 2010.

Another factor to consider was that the 2009 draft allowed the list to be retooled with 5 picks inside the top 50. The 2016 and 2017 drafts have to be combined to match that.

Worth considering in the beltings discussion is the comparative quality of the leagues 2010 vs 2017. The 2010 Collingwood, St Kilda, Geelong and dogs sides were all superior to the last 2 premiers imo. Each finished with 121+ %.

Geelong's 147% in 2010 was clearly stronger than Adelaide's 136% (highest in 2017). Basically the top sides in 2010 routinely dismantled opponents whereas 2017 was a fairly even group with sides 5-6 boasting superior % to sides 2-4.

Objectively I'd say the 2010 list was superior containing more promising players as well as retaining some with Pagan era IP. Romantically I hope the current list with much less exposed AFL form proves more successful however, obviously.

I think you are utilising a little too much hindsight there mate.

Based upon where those players were at in 2010 compared to present players in 2017:

• Petrie < Brown
  
• Hansen (not replaced due to modern tactics)
  
• Tarrant = Tarrant (improved)
  
• Goldstein = Goldstein (improved)
  
• Thompson = Thompson (improved)
  
• Grima < Tarrant
  
• McMahon < Williams
  
• Adams < Higgins
  
• Harvey > Everyone
  
• Rawlings ~ Jacobs (when fit)
  
• Ziebell = Ziebell (improved)
  
• Wright = Wright (improved, when fit)
  
• Greenwood < Dumont
  
• Swallow ~ Cunnington
  
• Firrito < McDonald

• Thomas: Too difficult to assess considering injuries to Turner & Wood and a lack of data to support Simpkin, but I would draft Simpkin over LT based on when they were 18 year olds.

 

[King Corey]

I think you are utilising a little too much hindsight there mate.

Based upon where those players were at in 2010 compared to present players in 2017:

• Petrie < Brown
  
• Hansen (not replaced due to modern tactics)
  
• Tarrant = Tarrant (improved)
  
• Goldstein = Goldstein (improved)
  
• Thompson = Thompson (improved)
  
• Grima < Tarrant
  
• McMahon < Williams
  
• Adams < Higgins
  
• Harvey > Everyone
  
• Rawlings ~ Jacobs (when fit)
  
• Ziebell = Ziebell (improved)
  
• Wright = Wright (improved, when fit)
  
• Greenwood < Dumont
  
• Swallow ~ Cunnington
  
• Firrito < McDonald

• Thomas: Too difficult to assess considering injuries to Turner & Wood and a lack of data to support Simpkin, but I would draft Simpkin over LT based on when they were 18 year olds.

Possibly true re hindsight.

I was mainly getting at the fact a few blokes hit 2010 on the right side of 30 with some good AFL exposed form. eg Goldstein had kicked 5 goals in a game, Thomas had already kicked a bag, Hansen had kicked a clutch matchwinner, Adams had taken apart an eventual season premier etc.

My comparisons of 2010 vs 2017 would be more along the lines of Tarrant vs equivalent age KPP (Nielson) rather than himself, Greenwood vs equivalent age onballer (Dumont as you say), Thomas vs equivalent age FP (Simpkin as you say) etc.

Will say this - doing some footywire comparisons Thomas vs Simpkin, Dumont vs Greenwood at same age, the comparisons are in favour of the 2017 player.

So hope you're right and onwards and upwards

 

[Tas]

Staggering that we are in this position, again, after such a short period of time.

 

[Heaps of fun]

Staggering that we are in this position, again, after such a short period of time.

Yep.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Staggering that we are in this position, again, after such a short period of time.

I think it is depth related. When we fell like dominoes in the back half of 2016 our depth and development was badly exposed.

 

[Le Grille]

Agreed, I feel our development of the 10/11 group was inadequate, which manifested itself in plenty of instances from 12-16. Hence my uneasiness with Brad's reappointment, granted the compromised draft exacerbated it through decreased talent inflows but Brown/Turner/potentially Pruess aside there aren't many of that group that haven't developed as projected.

 

[Only Forwards]

I think it is depth related. When the fell like dominoes in the back half of 2016 our depth and development was badly exposed.

It's because in 2010 we had to build over gap in the list.

We had some bloody lean years at the draft through trade schemes that did not work and an ankle injury to an Xbox champion.

We do not currently have the same holes.

What we do have is to wait to see where we end up with this rebuild.

Oh and that gap we had is the exact reason we are needing to rebuild again in such a short time.

The first 3 picks in the drafts from 03,04,05 netted us Spitta and FA else. A combined total of 140 games over 8 players.

We had to build over that.

 

[Gasometer]

Eagles were a basket case prior to 2005/6 era.

Reload and try again, theres not much else to do.

 

[Le Grille]

We had some bloody lean years at the draft through trade schemes that did not work and an ankle injury to an Xbox champion.
We do not currently have the same holes.

Part of that was due to either poor drafting/development/talent identification. Jesse was a big blow as he could have been anything but the amount of players we did draft for myriad reasons have not come on as required.

There is still hope for Garner/Wood/Durdin/EVH/Neilsen/ and potentially Hibberd/Clarke/McKay but most clubs have solid contributors from this timeline, but you cant definitively say any of those people have proven to be a proven week in week out contributors, not to mention the others in that timeline who weren't up to it. To me this falls on Coaching/Fitness staff and talent identification but there has been little turnover in the people responsible for those areas.
Im finding it hard to expect anything different in this cycle

 

[Zondor]

At the end of 2010 we finished with 11 wins and 9th of the Ladder.
At the end of 2011 we finished with 10 wins and 9th of the Ladder.
At the end of 2017 we finished with 6 wins and 15th of the Ladder. If we don't win our last game we finish last on the ladder.

We may have been thumped more often in 2010 and 2011 but we also won a fair number of games.

IMO we were ahead back in 2010 and 2011.

You need to also consider if our Coaching Staff of 2018 is better than the Staff back in 2010 / 11. Are they capable of developing and advancing the current talent we have on our list?

I have lost all faith with Scotts. Joyces aint no better. Yeah and my take is that our Assistants are in cruise mode. I have heard too many whispers from different sources to not think that this is the case. The whole football department needs a thorough review. Why this wasn't undertaken prior to Scotts getting an extra two years on his contract is disappointing and quite frankly unprofessional. But at least we have a Gender Equality Plan. :stern look

 

[shintemaster]

Interesting thread Snake.

Overall I think we're in a better position now - primarily due to the age groups. In 2010 I think our best players were 30 or older (Harvey etc) and more importantly the gap between this group and the incoming group (age wise) was massive. We had a huge hole in talent in that mid 20's age group. I think that's pretty different here where our best mature players (Williams, Brown, Higgins, Tarrant, Cunnington, Ziebell etc) are mostly young enough to still be impacting when the next group are maturing (Wood, Simpkin, Turner, LDU etc). Last time around we had close to nothing in that middle aged group.

 

[Only Forwards]

Garner/Wood

We got Jacob's that draft admittedly only because port would trade him, he's not actually that draft class.

The next draft we got Luke, Frog and Brown. Killed it.

Beyond that the draftees suffered from lack of exposure as we really were having a crack.

Something we're paying for now in terms of senior development

 

[big_e]

2010 is better, BUT we have had compromised drafts since then, so the quality of top 20 draft picks are lower. I think we have done well, but it's too early to tell. What is in our favour is the compromised drafts are over, and if their was going to ever be a time to rebuild it is NOW. LDU, Thomas, pick 1-5 from this year and next year will definitely help. The added advantage of having free agency will help us in the coming years, because we will become the destination club when our younger players become stronger and have experience. Throw in 2-3 gun free agents to our list with 3-4 gun draft picks and we are set for 2020. Maybe a comparison from 2010 to 2020 in Brads last year of contract would be better?

Which suggests to me a year where we are just treading water.

The thought we'll get 3-4 gun draft picks is wishful thinking - we might, but recent history suggests very rarely do that well in a single year. Same with free agents, or even trades - if last year's events tell us anything, it's that you can't assume we'll get anyone.

I'm resigned to finishing 12-15 this year - not happy about it - but I'll live with it as long as there is some improvement from younger players. But I already have an uneasy feeling about 2020.

 

[Le Grille]

We got Jacob's that draft admittedly only because port would trade him, he's not actually that draft class.

The next draft we got Luke, Frog and Brown. Killed it.

Beyond that the draftees suffered from lack of exposure as we really were having a crack.

Something we're paying for now in terms of senior development

I'd argue Frog isn't there yet and am not sure he will be, there is hope but he hasn't come along as hoped. Luke is coming along now which is good but that is still a very low hit rate, the circumstances of getting him at pick 9 probably gave him higher expectations to deal with. I just cant see the same FD/Fitness staff getting it right this time

 

[Le Grille]

Which suggests to me a year where we are just treading water.

The thought we'll get 3-4 gun draft picks is wishful thinking - we might, but recent history suggests very rarely do that well in a single year. Same with free agents, or even trades - if last year's events tell us anything, it's that you can't assume we'll get anyone.

I'm resigned to finishing 12-15 this year - not happy about it - but I'll live with it as long as there is some improvement from younger players. But I already have an uneasy feeling about 2020.

I can't see us escaping the bottom 4. so there will be some talent injected, I don't even the most optimistic of supporters can be sure the senior staff could develop a flag contender.

 

[Only Forwards]

I'd argue Frog isn't there yet and am not sure he will be, there is hope but he hasn't come along as hoped. Luke is coming along now which is good but that is still a very low hit rate, the circumstances of getting him at pick 9 probably gave him higher expectations to deal with. I just cant see the same FD/Fitness staff getting it right this time

Brown is now the closest thing to a champion we have at the club.

Luke has a bit of the girl with the curl about him.

Frog is meat and potatoes. Relative to most other drafts this is killing it.

IMO we were ahead back in 2010 and 2011.

I think the main difference was we still had Boomer. Champion driving for a win always.

Who is this person now? Brown?

 

[shintemaster]

I'd argue Frog isn't there yet and am not sure he will be, there is hope but he hasn't come along as hoped. Luke is coming along now which is good but that is still a very low hit rate, the circumstances of getting him at pick 9 probably gave him higher expectations to deal with. I just cant see the same FD/Fitness staff getting it right this time

We still killed it even with that less glowing assessment. Let's be honest, getting a Brown out of any draft - particularly where we did - makes that a massive win.

 

[Le Grille]

Luke is coming along eventually that's great regardless of bidding we used pick 7 the bar is high, but Im very confident he will get there.
Brown, massive win agreed
Dumont is a borderline fringe player based on performances.

roughly 28 picked in the scott era and we have hit twice with a few useful players in the RD , that is a pretty damning stat

 

[Tas]

I think it is depth related. When the fell like dominoes in the back half of 2016 our depth and development was badly exposed.

I don't think any AFL side copes well when they have the extent of injuries we have had of late, but my major issue has been with how people have played who were in the side, as opposed to what we lost from the side... largely because I think our kids did okay last year and our depth did okay the year before, it was the senior players still playing that I was most disappointed in.

I do agree our development has been badly exposed, but it is more about what we have turned our mid aged experience footballers into rather than what we have done with recent recruits.

We just have no replacement for the likes of Boomer or Wells and so much of our scoring opportunities used to be initiated by one of those two, it is not like either had their career cut short, we knew for a long time they were nearing their expiration date and we did nothing to get the next tier to take more of the load off their shoulders. When Wells decided to leave, we should have held on to Harvey a bit longer.

We just don't seem to have the professional level successful clubs have at the top end of their list, we lack consistency of effort at times and we lack clean efficiency of execution. We are battlers, we are usually up there in the hard ball stats and that tends to stem the bleeding somewhat, but when we just turn the ball over excessively we get cut up.

Hopefully LDU and Simpkin will be the class we desperately need, however, we have players all over the park (especially in the back half) that make bad decisions and do not execute the basics well and it isn't visually evident that we have made a focus on addressing it.

I think the club shifting to the rebuild excuse has glossed over the development failings in terms of what we have done to the players who are here and should be here for some time to come. I honestly find it hard to watch us play the standard of footy we dish out quite frequently, on a positive note, it gives me more beer time.

 

[deano28]

The optimism levels on this thread are bursting .

 

[scooby1279]

Staggering that we are in this position, again, after such a short period of time.

and with the same coach.