2010 Potential Draftee and Trade Watch

[year of the cat]

Re: Potential Draftee Watch 2010 - Critical and Compromised.

I've seen McCarthy play through both school and club football (I'm a couple of years older) and he was always a struggler. I must admit I haven't seen him play this year but even last year he struggled. Good bloke but he has always been soft at the ball and lacked any real skills, that said, he may have improved this year but to be touted as a first round pick he must have improved out of sight to when I last saw him play a year ago.

That's interesting. He looks an athletic type with a good ability to read the play. His kicking looked pretty good to me as well. Maybe he has improved markedly? Maybe he was made to look good by his teammates around him?

 

[Pivo]

Re: Potential Draftee Watch 2010 - Critical and Compromised.

I. Smith may not be that big a smokey for us when you think about. Geelong consider they are still a chance at the flag next year and a more mature body who has attributes that people think Geelong needs becomes a good fit.

Geelong might just think someone like Tape will be there at 23 so a 1-2 punch of I. Smith/S. Tape could be on the cards.

Get a guy who is an outside mid with pace and then get a tall defender with the second.

Another option might be I. Smith first pick, J. Pitt with the second and then look to nab someone like a Max Otten later on in the draft (Otten is the same height - reportedly - as Tape).

The rider though (and I'll admit I HAVEN'T seen Smith play) but he reads like a guy we had previously, Jason Davenport.

 

[CatTricks]

Re: Potential Draftee Watch 2010 - Critical and Compromised.

I. Smith may not be that big a smokey for us when you think about. Geelong consider they are still a chance at the flag next year and a more mature body who has attributes that people think Geelong needs becomes a good fit.

Geelong might just think someone like Tape will be there at 23 so a 1-2 punch of I. Smith/S. Tape could be on the cards.

Get a guy who is an outside mid with pace and then get a tall defender with the second.

Another option might be I. Smith first pick, J. Pitt with the second and then look to nab someone like a Max Otten later on in the draft (Otten is the same height - reportedly - as Tape).

The rider though (and I'll admit I HAVEN'T seen Smith play) but he reads like a guy we had previously, Jason Davenport.

I hope we go with Smith or Smedt followed by Pitt..

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Re: Potential Draftee Watch 2010 - Critical and Compromised.

I know where Angel Eyes is going, but I think we will take ISmith at 15. We will be worried North will take him at 17, however we need a midfielder with legspeed, and there's not many of them in this draft (there is a heck of a lot of midfield depth, but not a lot of QUICK midfield depth, just to clarify) and by my calculations almost all of them will go between 23 and 37. In which case it makes sense to take a quick one at 15 or 23. The only fly in the ointment is if we feel we desperately need a KPB and must take one at 15 (because of the lack of depth in KPB's). To me, if we don't take ISmith, it will only be because that area of tall need is seen as a greater need, not because we're trying to outfox anyone. But again, unless Wells rates ISmith as equal with Prestia, Green, Cripps etc, then I don't think he'll take the risk. With the late mail about risers and sliders, there's also a good chance we'll get a tall we want at 23 anyway.

The article in today's age about Conca maybe being pick 6 notwithstanding, this is how I think it will pan out up to 23.

1-Swallow
2-Bennell
3-Day
(obviously these are locked in)
4-Gaff
5-Heppell
6-Polec
7-Gorringe
8-Atley
9-Caddy
10-Lynch
11-Pitt
12-Jacobs/Smedts
13-Tape/McCarthy
14-BSmith
15-ISmith
16-Lycett
17-Smedts/Jacobs/Lamb
18-Darling/Watson/McCarthy/Tape
19-Lamb/Smedts/Jacobs
20-Darling/McCarthy/Tape
21-Conca/Parker
22-F/S

I should point out this is not what I think the top 23 talent wise is, because several teams in here are picking for needs (most notably GC, but also us, Port, Carlton etc) but I think it's pretty close to how it'll go, and the selections where I have multiple options I'm still certain it will be within them-for instance I am 99 % certain Carlton will select one of those three players, it just depends on which one.

Now the interesting thing here is that Pitt firming for GC, along with possibly Tape, makes it highly likely that all of Watson, Darling and McCarthy/Tape will get to 15, and that being so, there's a chance, as I said earlier, that one of them will get to 23. Ideally we need Lamb to get through North, to rule out the possibility of Hawthorn taking a key defender (although I think they've already shown their hand on not doing that with the Spangher thing) because I think they'd prefer Lamb to Smedts, and then there's a good chance we get lucky and one of the defenders we want makes it to 23.

Also, notice how deep the midfield depth is, because this top 23 doesn't a bunch of midfielders that I rate: Prestia, Green, Cripps, Andreoli, Hallahan, Guthrie, Harper, Michie, Fasolo, Young and so on...whereas other than whichever of Watson/McCarthy/Tape hopefully makes it to 23, there's not a lot of key defender depth...really only Chalwell, Delaney and Litherland that I'd rate. So for me that confirms that assuming we take the ISmith, we are better off going tall at 23, and then mid again at 37, rather than the other way around with 23 and 37...it will be interesting to see what Wells does.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Re: Potential Draftee Watch 2010 - Critical and Compromised.

I. Smith may not be that big a smokey for us when you think about. Geelong consider they are still a chance at the flag next year and a more mature body who has attributes that people think Geelong needs becomes a good fit.

Geelong might just think someone like Tape will be there at 23 so a 1-2 punch of I. Smith/S. Tape could be on the cards.

Get a guy who is an outside mid with pace and then get a tall defender with the second.

Another option might be I. Smith first pick, J. Pitt with the second and then look to nab someone like a Max Otten later on in the draft (Otten is the same height - reportedly - as Tape).

The rider though (and I'll admit I HAVEN'T seen Smith play) but he reads like a guy we had previously, Jason Davenport.

I would've considered Pitt at 23, but it looks he'll go GC, which in a lot of ways is logical, considering he's an elite kick, and will be a gun, but his body needs a lot of building up, so he's best going to a club, like GC, that can park him in the 2's for a couple of years, before letting him loose.

I think the fact that ISmith is seen as being able to play straight away, having played against men, is a factor. It won't be the sole reason we draft him, as it's not like when Egan went down and we had to get a ready made player...I think it's just more that obviously Wells has seen our lack of leg speed means we can't deal with the full court press, and so he's after the best Wojack MK2, whoever that is. I do think the fact that Smith is ready to go however, along with his height (Wells likes tall wingers, look at Cowan last year) is the thing that will tip him over the line, if Wells considers him equal with whoever else is there at 15.

Definitely not like Davenport...reccommend you get yourself a copy of the VFL finals series if you want to check him out...much more like a rawer version of Hill (insofar as he has the speed, and the long running stride).

I agree with you on the quick player + tall at 23...obviously we're in the lap of the other teams as to who falls, but it would be ideal.

 

[Pivo]

Re: Potential Draftee Watch 2010 - Critical and Compromised.

I still like the idea of Watson at 15 but I'm wondering if someone like Harper might still be around at 23.

I would love to snag Harper with our second pick if we have a key postion player locked away with the first pick.

Harper would have a big upside and, while hit and miss right now, could bring some serious tricks to the party in a few years.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Re: Potential Draftee Watch 2010 - Critical and Compromised.

Hmm, not so sure on Harper...then again I do have a bias against flashy in and out (read inconsistent) players and flankers (as a pose to wingers) as I feel we have a glut of them.

Having said that, Harper could be taken by North at 17, or in the mix for us at 23.

Emma Quayle did Q & A today and this is what she said about Smith etc, which backs up what I've been saying:

Hi Emma,

A lot of mail is saying Isaac Smith will go to the Cats with pick 15, but i think the Cats will run the gauntlet until 23, as i can't see anyone else taking him between the 2 picks.
If the Cats were to go a tall defender with their pick 15 would they be best to get Watson or McCarthy, and do you think either will be available.
Dram for the Cats IMO would be Watson/McCarthy at 15 and Smith at 23!!

Hi Jake, I think if they want Smith he would have to go at 15 because North would take him at 17 otherwise. Having said that I think McCarthy will still be on the board at 23 and Lucas Cook is another big chance.

- Emma.

JakeMc5 | Perth - November 15, 2010, 12:41PM

Hi Emma,
There is a lot of talk linking Geelong's pick 15 with Isaac Smith. I believe he is far too risky to be using a pick so high for him.
Do you think he can improve enough to become consistent ball winner at AFL level? At the moment I feel he is little more than a flash in the pan. Who are some other names linked to Geelong's 15 & 23 picks?
Thanks.

Hi Craig. I've seen 5 of Smith's games and think he looks great. Remember how raw he is - despite his age. Was playing country footy a couple of months ago. Has shown he has talent and has all the athletic capabilities to suggest he'll be able to do it at AFL level too. Smedts, McCarthy, Cook are other possibilities for the Cats, they are in a good position.
- Emma.

Craig - November 15, 2010, 12:34PM

Backs up what I've been saying, I do think because North pick at 17 and 27 (and then not again until 69), they like us, will be prepared to reach (although a lot of clubs will reach this year, because the pool has more depth in some areas than it does in others, which increases the need for rwaching) and they need some pace too, so I think Smith will go at 17. If we can then get McCarthy or similar quality defender (preferably Watson or Tape) at 23 that would rock. I still love Watson, and would love to take him at 15, but Smith may be the if we reckon one of those three key defenders will be there at 23. Carlton could also do us a favour and take Darling, in which case it may be Watson that gets to 23.​

 

[Boxhead_31]

Re: Potential Draftee Watch 2010 - Critical and Compromised.

How quick is Bundy? Could he be the injection of pace we need into the midfield and Menzel being the pace we need off of half back?

 

[year of the cat]

Re: Potential Draftee Watch 2010 - Critical and Compromised.

I reckon this thread will go into meltdown on Thursday night!!

For what it's worth I have changed my mind about 5 times over the past few days as to what is the best strategy that we use. Which basically means that I know SFA about the order of player talent in this draft.

There just appears to be so many similarly ranked players in this draft in the 13-30 range. It makes it really difficult to predict who will take whom and therefore who will be left!!

I reckon P_O has come up with a reasonable scenario. But all you need is a Reece Conca to be taken by the tigers or Jacobs to be taken by the demons and all of a sudden there are a few options to play with. Who we take if all of Smedts, Pitt, McCarthy, I.Smith, and Watson are around is anyone's guess. I reckon though that Wells may be asking for the extra 2 minutes if this happens!!

With regard to the structure of our draft a number of scenarios have been discussed in terms of when to take the KP player. Do you take the best available with every pick assuming a KP player will be one of those picks or do you consciously use one of the picks for a KP player knowing that your other picks in all likelihood will result in mids that you are still happy with?

My feeling at the moment is that we take a Smedts or Smith or Pitt with pick 15 and hope to hell that one of the good talls (i.e. McCarthy, Tape or Watson) is still there by the time pick 23 comes around. If they are gone then take you next best mid again (one of the 3 above may have fallen or otherwise a Hallahan or Parker) and finally use your third pick to take a Chalwell or Delaney.

 

[Turbocat]

Re: Potential Draftee Watch 2010 - Critical and Compromised.

So Pure & YOTC , do we think its a bit like 04 for Hawthorn . They picked Roughead first believing they could would get Franklin with their second pick as the other two teams would not take Franklin but would take Roughead.

YOTC , is it reverse for the top10 or 1st round? Cause if its reverse for the first round we probably will not see the Wells pausing and asking for the extra minutes.

 

[year of the cat]

Re: Potential Draftee Watch 2010 - Critical and Compromised.

So Pure & YOTC , do we think its a bit like 04 for Hawthorn . They picked Roughead first believing they could would get Franklin with their second pick as the other two teams would not take Franklin but would take Roughead.

YOTC , is it reverse for the top10 or 1st round? Cause if its reverse for the first round we probably will not see the Wells pausing and asking for the extra minutes.

Possibly a little like this Turbo though there would be I dare say greater variability here compared to the 2004 draft. I think it is a lot more difficult to predict what is likely to take place towards the end of a first round than in the first half dozen picks. I think it would be brave of Wells to not take his preferred option with pick 15 in the hope that another player would be available for pick 23. Anything could possibly occur in between to throw this out.

You are correct about the first round being done in reverse order. It's a shame because we miss out now in witnessing any indecision from the recruiters. I reckon it takes away more from the draft than any suspense built leading up to the first pick being read out. We all knew 6 months ago that Swallow would be no. 1 pick. I personally would be intrigued to see how the draft takes shape.

 

[year of the cat]

Re: Potential Draftee Watch 2010 - Critical and Compromised.

I've seen McCarthy play through both school and club football (I'm a couple of years older) and he was always a struggler. I must admit I haven't seen him play this year but even last year he struggled. Good bloke but he has always been soft at the ball and lacked any real skills, that said, he may have improved this year but to be touted as a first round pick he must have improved out of sight to when I last saw him play a year ago.

Read yesterday that his coach in SA has said he has come on in leaps and bounds this year. He appeared to be surprised as well by his dramatic improvement.

 

[Cats Eye]

Re: Potential Draftee Watch 2010 - Critical and Compromised.

What are peoples thoughts on Tape? Would we be reaching a little if we were to be taking him with pick 23? Personally if we did not pick up Watson or McCarthy with pick 15 and they were both gone by pick 23, I would be happy with Tape at 23 as I think we really need a KPB. He seems to be able to play on tall or medium forwards, which would allow for flexibilty in our backline.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Re: Potential Draftee Watch 2010 - Critical and Compromised.

So Pure & YOTC , do we think its a bit like 04 for Hawthorn . They picked Roughead first believing they could would get Franklin with their second pick as the other two teams would not take Franklin but would take Roughead.

YOTC , is it reverse for the top10 or 1st round? Cause if its reverse for the first round we probably will not see the Wells pausing and asking for the extra minutes.

I think yes.

Ultimately it will depend how much Wells loves ISmith, but that may be the strategy.

Because a lot of teams will pick for needs this year because the draft is skewed (i.e. there's not even quality across all the player areas, i.e. better depth in mids than talls etc) it is reasonably predictable what player type will go at each pick inside the top 25, even if we don't know exactly who, so you can guess whether you'll get a tall at 23, for example.

I read a good point on the main board that while there's a great depth of mids this year, the pool of quick mids is quite shallow and that explains why guys like Tambling and Sherman attracted a premium on what they normally would get. I tend to agree, and I think that this will influence Wells to take Smith early (or if not Smith, a player of the same type and attributes) in the knowledge that it will be easier to get a KPD for example at 37, than it will be to get that runner. Of course Wells won't pick someone he doesn't rate just because of that, but if it's line ball 50-50 between two or more players, expect to hear the quick player read out at 15 and we gamble on getting a good tall at 23 or 37. That's my guess anyway.

Reverse for top 10 only, which is really boring. Most of the top 10 picks we know, and the top 3 we definitely know, so it won't be interesting. It's between 10 and 25 that it will get fun.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Re: Potential Draftee Watch 2010 - Critical and Compromised.

What are peoples thoughts on Tape? Would we be reaching a little if we were to be taking him with pick 23? Personally if we did not pick up Watson or McCarthy with pick 15 and they were both gone by pick 23, I would be happy with Tape at 23 as I think we really need a KPB. He seems to be able to play on tall or medium forwards, which would allow for flexibilty in our backline.

Tape is definitely good. My only issue is he might be an inch short to become a full back, but even if he's only the third tall it'd be good for us as all our defenders are old. I'd be happy with him or McCarthy at 23, although it seems like Tape is a late bolter and it's more likely that McCarthy will be the one available at 23.

 

[year of the cat]

Re: Potential Draftee Watch 2010 - Critical and Compromised.

I think yes.

Ultimately it will depend how much Wells loves ISmith, but that may be the strategy.

Because a lot of teams will pick for needs this year because the draft is skewed (i.e. there's not even quality across all the player areas, i.e. better depth in mids than talls etc) it is reasonably predictable what player type will go at each pick inside the top 25, even if we don't know exactly who, so you can guess whether you'll get a tall at 23, for example.

I read a good point on the main board that while there's a great depth of mids this year, the pool of quick mids is quite shallow and that explains why guys like Tambling and Sherman attracted a premium on what they normally would get. I tend to agree, and I think that this will influence Wells to take Smith early (or if not Smith, a player of the same type and attributes) in the knowledge that it will be easier to get a KPD for example at 37, than it will be to get that runner. Of course Wells won't pick someone he doesn't rate just because of that, but if it's line ball 50-50 between two or more players, expect to hear the quick player read out at 15 and we gamble on getting a good tall at 23 or 37. That's my guess anyway.

Reverse for top 10 only, which is really boring. Most of the top 10 picks we know, and the top 3 we definitely know, so it won't be interesting. It's between 10 and 25 that it will get fun.

Is that right?

Makes it a LOT more interesting because it will be the later picks that will be more contentious anyway.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Re: Potential Draftee Watch 2010 - Critical and Compromised.

Is that right?

Makes it a LOT more interesting because it will be the later picks that will be more contentious anyway.

Yep it is.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Re: Potential Draftee Watch 2010 - Critical and Compromised.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/a...rget-jared-polec/story-e6frf9jf-1225954635956

Wow, things just got interesting

Polec to go 5, possibly Conca 6, and Heppell sliding as far as us. The rumour is, and it's the only thing that makes sense to me, that the medical report re his OP has a few people spooked.

The less surprising rumour is that GC won't take both Gorringe and Lynch only one of them (TBH, once GC pre listed Hickey a few weeks ago I half expected this might happen as they have a lot of talls now).

I wouldn't thought it would affect our 15 as it'll be one of McCarthy (Tape to GC as I said), Watson or Isaac, whoever Wells prefers. A lot of sliding though could really affect pick 23. (for example what if Gorringe lasts until the teens so Lycett slides into the 20s, or someone takes Heppell in the teens and BSmith or Jacobs slide...hmm interesting).

Damn GC possibly taking my man Prestia...I have wanted him to us for ages!

I just really hope we still focus on our needs and get the tall defender in the 1st round and a quick player, preferably both. GO WELLSY, IN WELLSY WE TRUST

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Re: Potential Draftee Watch 2010 - Critical and Compromised.

Btw, just in case anyone's interested, I just put up a full phantom on the main board and we got:
15- Isaac Smith
23- Patrick McCarthy
37-Warrick Andreoli
54-Josh Walker

 

[Catlad]

Re: Potential Draftee Watch 2010 - Critical and Compromised.

Btw, just in case anyone's interested, I just put up a full phantom on the main board and we got:
15- Isaac Smith
23- Patrick McCarthy
37-Warrick Andreoli
54-Josh Walker

W hat's the deal with walker(positives and negatives)? Very happy with this draft btw

 

[year of the cat]

Re: Potential Draftee Watch 2010 - Critical and Compromised.

Btw, just in case anyone's interested, I just put up a full phantom on the main board and we got:
15- Isaac Smith
23- Patrick McCarthy
37-Warrick Andreoli
54-Josh Walker

I can't see us taking both Smith and Andreoli in the same draft. I reckon we will only look at Andreoli if we pass on Smith with pick 15 and he is subsequently taken before our pick 23. Despite really liking Andreoli, he is a pretty similar type to Smith so really only one of the two is necessary I reckon. I would instead look at Guthrie as a replacement for Ling as that defensive mid type. See that you have him going a couple of spots before our pick so perhaps if this scenario played out I would look at Butcher who can play both inside and outside.

Really good mock though P_O!! Enjoyed reading it.

 

[Claude Balls]

Re: Potential Draftee Watch 2010 - Critical and Compromised.

I highly doubt Josh Walker will still be around at 54. He looks the goods to me and I wouldn't be surprised if he went in the top 25.

Delaney also looks pretty good - would be happy to snag him with our third pick. Does anyone know a bit about him? Likely draft position?

 

[Pivo]

Re: Potential Draftee Watch 2010 - Critical and Compromised.

I can't see us taking both Smith and Andreoli in the same draft. I reckon we will only look at Andreoli if we pass on Smith with pick 15 and he is subsequently taken before our pick 23. Despite really liking Andreoli, he is a pretty similar type to Smith so really only one of the two is necessary I reckon. I would instead look at Guthrie as a replacement for Ling as that defensive mid type. See that you have him going a couple of spots before our pick so perhaps if this scenario played out I would look at Butcher who can play both inside and outside.

Really good mock though P_O!! Enjoyed reading it.

Without speaking for P_O I'm thinking Smith is taken first as he can play next year whereas Andreoli is the development outside mid for down the track.

I thought it was a good mock, well thought out and detailed. It is a good draft for Geelong with those picks, McCarthy at 23 would be a good get...not sure he'll last until then but funny things happen on draft day.

Clearly P_O has jumped off Watson and onto Smith...judas

 

[year of the cat]

Re: Potential Draftee Watch 2010 - Critical and Compromised.

Paul Daffey has us taking Smedts, McCarthy, Walker and Batchelor. All good gets. I just query whether we would look for a bit more outside speed with our later two picks if we were to take Smedts and McCarthy with the first two.

 

[meto]

Re: Potential Draftee Watch 2010 - Critical and Compromised.

I highly doubt Josh Walker will still be around at 54. He looks the goods to me and I wouldn't be surprised if he went in the top 25.

Delaney also looks pretty good - would be happy to snag him with our third pick. Does anyone know a bit about him? Likely draft position?

I sincerely hope we draft both Josh Walker and Delaney, I think they're our obvious late choices, and I do believe they'll be there later in the draft.
Both being ex Falcon are ideal for GFC.

Also Batchelor, Stingrays captain, worthy late pick, versitile 188cm, at the moment.