Review 2011/2012 List Management

NTRabbit

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Thread starter #1
I know we have a 2011 Delistings thread and have had it for some time, but it was started in June and a lot has happened since then - we lost a coach, a Stevens, a Davis, some players have come good, and some players have been given further chances, rookies have risen and fallen, most of the list has now re-signed, with only a mathematical chance of finishing anywhere other than 14th we know our actual picks, and the draft pool itself has taken more shape.

Hence, with permission, I'm starting a new discussion. I'd wait until after the last game, but it's extremely unlikely that anything will change from here.

The Draft - The nature of the upcoming draft is now well known, and while the top 10 to 15 are as good as any other year, it's widely accepted that the depth drops off very sharply beyond this point, possibly one of the weakest in some time. This is opposed to the draft at the end of next year, which as it currently stands is shaping up to be the next super draft

Our List - Has problems. While we're still ok when it comes to talls, thanks to a drafting policy that has worked more by accident than design, we're desperately short of quality midfielders. We also have quite a lot of list cloggers in the 20 to 24 age bracket, too many to get rid of all at once.

Our Picks - Courtesy of finishing 14th, we have: #10, #32, #50, #68 (courtesy of the Phantom Draft board, currently only Brisbane has a formally activated priority pick). Rubbish picks, but we knew it was coming.

I don't follow the U18 leagues, so I'm not going to postulate who we'll go for, other than midfielders unnamed.

Obviously a new coach is going to have his own valuations and priorities, but this is what I currently think we'll do:

It's a shallow draft, and we're unlikely to go very deep into it. Like Fremantle of a few seasons ago we have too much clog to cut in one season, especially in such a poor draft, so don't expect a massive clean out - instead, a small number will go, and after a years evaluation where we'll be unlikely to finish much higher, we'll have a more comprehensive clean out when we have a draft we can go much deeper into, and have much earlier picks to use - an actual low number in the top 10, early second and third round picks in the 20's and 40's, plus the potential to use the Davis compensation pick, likely to be end of first round at worst, so again in the teens or early 20's. That's a lot better than trying to rebuild from a shallow draft where the GWS club starting picks are vastly distorting the order.

What has actually happened thus far (as of 5pm 19/10)

Departures
1. Stevens (Retired)
2. Moran (Retired)
3. Davis (Betrayed) (AFL Band 2 Compensation Pick)
4. Gunston + #53 + #71 (Hawthorn) (#24 + #46 + #64)
5. Armstrong + #35 + #X (Sydney) (Johnston)
6. Maric (Richmond) (Lynch)
7. Sellar (Delisted)
8. Cook (Delisted)
9. Young (Delisted)
10. Craig (Delisted)

Additions
1. #27
2. #41
3. #46
4. #64/PSD
5. Wright (Rookie Promotion #89)
6. Riley (Rookie Promotion #107)
7. Luke Brown (GWS) (AFL Band 2 Compensation Pick + #10)
8. Tom Lynch (STK) (Maric)
9. Lewis Johnston (SYD) (#35 + #X)
10. Josh Jenkins (Ess) (#31)
11. Brad Crouch* (Kindy) (AFL Band 2 Compensation Pick + #10)
-
Rookie 1. Ben Dowdell (Alternative Talent rule)


Rookie List
1. Wright (Promoted)
2. Riley (Promoted)

3. Callinan (Retained)
4. Sam Martyn (Retained)

5. von Bertouch (Delisted)
6. Roach (Delisted)
7. Schmidt (Delisted)
8. Milera (Delisted)

9. Duncan (?)


My original predictions, kept for posterity
Delistings
1. Stevens (Retired)
2. Davis (Betrayed)
3. Sellar
4. Cook

Draft
1. #10
2. #32
3. #50 (?)
4. Wright (Rookie Promotion)

Rookie List
1. Wright (Promoted)
2. Riley (Retained)
3. Callinan (Retained)
4. Sam Martyn (?)
5. von Bertouch (?)
6. Roach (?)
7. Schmidt (Delisted)
8. Milera (Already gone)
9. Duncan (Promoted from Scholarship)
Question marks because I don't honestly known how well the guys who haven't played are going

Possible Trade Bait
1. Knights


Post your ramblings after mine :thumbsu:
 

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Macca19

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I think youll keep Martyn & Von Bertouch, get rid of Callinan, Schmidt & Roach and dont you get to list Duncan this year?
 

NTRabbit

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Thread starter #3
You're right, I forgot about our last Scholarship lad, he's use or lose this year I believe
 

Team DJ

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#4
Sellar stays because Davis went. Moran has to be in the delistings along with Symes.
OUT: Stevens Davis Moran Symes Cook Craig (re rookied)
IN: Wright Reily Callinan

Draft 3 players.

Trade Bait: Tippet Knights
 

1990crow

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#5
Delist/retire/betray: Stevens, Davis, Cook, Moran

Trade bait: Symes, Tippett, Knights and Douglas. (Delist symes if no takers)

Rookies: Upgrade Riley, Wright and retain Callinan. Delist Schmidt.

If we could trade Tippett for Day I would do it, even if it meant including a second rounder or something. Knights/Douglas/Symes to be used to get someone like a Menzel or someone from accross the border.
 

Pariah

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#6
Add Moran to the delist section. I would even consider delisting Symes and drafting Pfeiffer to replace him.
Other trade bait: Maric, Martin and Henderson(if Gunston stays).
I'm not sure what we should do with James Craig, Sam Shaw and Will Young.
 
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#7
I don’t see the point in upgrading Ian Callinan when we are in some desperate need of developing a squad of player to take us forward over the next 3 or 4 years.

I’d prefer getting games into player who potentially be around in a few years and can player 200 - 250 games, than someone who has a maximum of 80 more (4 seasons)
 

Vader

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#8
My assumptions:
  • Riley & Callinan to get promoted, both on 12-month contracts (Wright should get 2 years).
  • Maric will request a trade, looking for greater opportunities elsewhere (probably Richmond). He's been overtaken by Jacobs and the sub rule means that his chances at Adelaide will be limited, due to our preference for the Jacobs/Tippett combination.
  • We should get a 2nd round pick for Maric, leaving us with 4 selections in the first 3 rounds. I don't see us going any deeper in the draft than that.
  • Gut feel is that Roach, von Bertouch & Martyn will all get delisted, but I'll leave them as ??? due to lack of information for now.

So..
Retired
Stevens

Delisted
Davis (defected)
Moran
Cook
Sellar
Symes (I live in hope)

Traded
Maric

Rookie List
Wright - promoted, 2-year contract
Callinan - promoted, 1-year contract
Riley - promoted, 1-year contract
Milera - retired
Schmidt - delisted
Roach - ???
von Bertouch - ???
Martyn - ???

Scholarship List
Aaron Duncan - upgraded to rookie list
 

Kristof

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#9
Sellar stays because Davis went. Moran has to be in the delistings along with Symes.
OUT: Stevens Davis Moran Symes Cook Craig (re rookied)
IN: Wright Reily Callinan

Draft 3 players.

Trade Bait: Tippet Knights
I'd add Douglas to the trade bait, and see if we might get one of GWS late first round picks. Plus Maric, of course. And the Davis pick, if it gets us Ben Kennedy.

Your delistings seem closer for mine, though I like DJ's idea of keeping a few folks on the rookie list instead of upgrading, and then keeping a few later picks for mature players, such as Pfeiffer.
 

Vader

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#10
I don’t see the point in upgrading Ian Callinan when we are in some desperate need of developing a squad of player to take us forward over the next 3 or 4 years.

I’d prefer getting games into player who potentially be around in a few years and can player 200 - 250 games, than someone who has a maximum of 80 more (4 seasons)
The biggest advantage is that doing so allows us to cull an extra dead-wood player, knowing that the replacement (Callinan) will be ready to step in immediately if required - rather than a 4th or 5th round draft pick in a notoriously poor draft.

Ultimately it comes down to a 3-way choice:
  • Keep a spud (probably Symes or Sellar).
  • Take an extra player late in a horribly weak draft.
  • Upgrade Callinan on a 12-month contract.
For my money, upgrading Callinan is the least-worst option.

Note that the BigFooty Phantom Draft crew have been seriously struggling to come up with draft-worthy players since around pick #50. This really is a truly horrible draft class, once you get past the first 10-15 who look as good as any other 1st round class.
 
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#11
Then rookie list Darren Pfeiffer instead of Ian Callinan as that ready made player. He will then be able to give you 7 or 8 years of playing time, allow the team to develop a long term player and still delist a deadwood player.

we need to look at the long term development, not short term propects.
 

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Kristof

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#13
I'm assuming we'll be drafting Pfeiffer as a rookie anyway.
If he's still there. In this class, I'd keep players as rookies and free some later picks, when you can be more certain the player will be there. The twenty five picks between your late draft pick and your early rookie pick might make all the difference.
 

Elite Crow

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#14
I reckon Pfeiffer won't last until the rookie draft if its thats shallow.

In terms of the draft picks, if there are compensation picks used that will put pick 32 back.

In terms of Davis compensation, article in the age I think which suggests we should get a first rd selection, can we use that as pick 11?

If we can keep Maric, Sellar and Moran have to go. Would hate to lose Maric if we might lose Kurt the following year. Especially for an average pick.

If Maric goes, we need to draft a project ruck man and keep Moran, with the view of pissing Moran off the following year.

Midfielders, HBFs and small crumbing forwards. Prerequisites are skill, good decision makers and quick.
 
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#15
I'm assuming we'll be drafting Pfeiffer as a rookie anyway.
But the club (morally to the guy) has to put him (Ian Callinan) on the list or let him go as rookie listing him will cost him a fortune. He will earn more at Centrals and being employed than he would as an AFL rookie. And putting him on the list and not playing him doesn’t make sense. I just see the need to have him on the list and play him when it won’t amount to any long term benefits to the playing list.

We have to look forward and find groups of player who can take us back to the top that have longevity on an AFL list. And I just don’t see Ian Callinan meeting this brief.
 

Vader

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#16
There are two reasons why it would be criminally insane of our list managers to use the Davis compensation pick this year.
  • Firstly, even if we get band 2 compensation (1st round, immediately after our normal 1st round pick), our compensation pick this year would not be taken until after the end of the 1st round.
  • Secondly, the 2012 draft is much better than the 2011 draft - so why not double up on our 1st round selections next year when the advantage is maximised?
 

NTRabbit

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Thread starter #17
Trade bait needs to be a player in demand, with value - Symes can't be trade bait, Moran can't be trade bait, the players we don't want because they aren't even good enough for us either leave for free, or for low draft picks we're not intending on using anyway. You can't throw up names like Symes or Cook or Sellar and then expect second or third round picks in return for them.

Also, I think using whatever compensation we get for Davis this year is an error - it's worth a better pick next year, and the next draft class is a much better pool to choose from.
 

Vader

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#18
But the club (morally to the guy) has to put him (Ian Callinan) on the list or let him go as rookie listing him will cost him a fortune. He will earn more at Centrals and being employed than he would as an AFL rookie. And putting him on the list and not playing him doesn’t make sense. I just see the need to have him on the list and play him when it won’t amount to any long term benefits to the playing list.

We have to look forward and find groups of player who can take us back to the top that have longevity on an AFL list. And I just don’t see Ian Callinan meeting this brief.
As with this year, there will be abundant opportunities for the kids to play - with, or without Callinan. Heck, the last 2-3 players selected for most games this year would not normally have been given AFL selection, but the club had no alternatives due to the age structure of the team list. 2012 will be no different.
 

Vader

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#19
Trade bait needs to be a player in demand, with value - Symes can't be trade bait, Moran can't be trade bait, the players we don't want because they aren't even good enough for us either leave for free, or for low draft picks we're not intending on using anyway. You can't throw up names like Symes or Cook or Sellar and then expect second or third round picks in return for them.

Also, I think using whatever compensation we get for Davis this year is an error - it's worth a better pick next year, and the next draft class is a much better pool to choose from.
Maric & Knights are probably the only players on our list who would qualify as "trade bait" - players with real value, who the club might be prepared to release.
 

Elite Crow

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#20
There are two reasons why it would be criminally insane of our list managers to use the Davis compensation pick this year.
  • Firstly, even if we get band 2 compensation (1st round, immediately after our normal 1st round pick), our compensation pick this year would not be taken until after the end of the 1st round.
  • Secondly, the 2012 draft is much better than the 2011 draft - so why not double up on our 1st round selections next year when the advantage is maximised?
Isnt band 1 two 1st rd picks, band 2 one 1st rd pick after your first and band 3 end of first rd as per Bock?
 

NTRabbit

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Thread starter #21
Isnt band 1 2 1st rd picks, band 2 1st rd pick after your first and band 3 end of first rd as per Bock?
Band 1: Immediate 1st round pick, plus end of 1st round pick
Band 2: Immediate 1st round pick
Band 3: End of 1st round pick

However, using any of the immediate picks in the year they were issued turns them into end of round ones, to stop teams from trying to preempt the GWS inside the top 10. Hence if you activate band 1 compo, you get picks $28 and #29 for it, or just #28 for the band 2 compo. As I recall the rules, at least.
 

Elite Crow

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#22
Band 1: Immediate 1st round pick, plus end of 1st round pick
Band 2: Immediate 1st round pick
Band 3: End of 1st round pick

However, using any of the immediate picks in the year they were issued turns them into end of round ones, to stop teams from trying to preempt the GWS inside the top 10. Hence if you activate band 1 compo, you get picks $28 and #29 for it, or just #28 for the band 2 compo. As I recall the rules, at least.
Thanks, if thats the case as Vader pointed out you wouldnt be using it this year.
 

The Sloane Ranger

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#23
Those suggesting that we keep Sellar because Davis has gone must be seriously mental :p

Sellar is a SPUD and struggles at sanfl level, if we need another back up KPP I am sure that we can find a mature player in the sanfl, wafl or vfl who is more list worthy than Sellar

Yes we selected Sellar as a bottom aged recruit, yes big fellas take time however seriously he should be showing more by now and should be putting more pressure on selection rather getting charity games because of injuries

Let's clean out the Spuds and if needed take a punt on others that have been impressing in the state leagues
 

Team DJ

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#24
In regards to Maric, what if the sub rule gets scrapped this year and we need him to back up Jacobs? And/or if we lose Tippett to a Queensland team, we might need him for an extra year or 2 as an insurance policy.
 

Vader

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#25
In regards to Maric, what if the sub rule gets scrapped this year and we need him to back up Jacobs? And/or if we lose Tippett to a Queensland team, we might need him for an extra year or 2 as an insurance policy.
I'd say there's a 2% chance that the bench might get extended back to 4 players (ie a 4+1 mix). There's no chance whatsoever of the sub rule itself getting scrubbed.

What's most likely is the sub rule being extended to a 2+2 mix.
 
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