NTRabbit
Brownlow Medallist
I know we have a 2011 Delistings thread and have had it for some time, but it was started in June and a lot has happened since then - we lost a coach, a Stevens, a Davis, some players have come good, and some players have been given further chances, rookies have risen and fallen, most of the list has now re-signed, with only a mathematical chance of finishing anywhere other than 14th we know our actual picks, and the draft pool itself has taken more shape.
Hence, with permission, I'm starting a new discussion. I'd wait until after the last game, but it's extremely unlikely that anything will change from here.
The Draft - The nature of the upcoming draft is now well known, and while the top 10 to 15 are as good as any other year, it's widely accepted that the depth drops off very sharply beyond this point, possibly one of the weakest in some time. This is opposed to the draft at the end of next year, which as it currently stands is shaping up to be the next super draft
Our List - Has problems. While we're still ok when it comes to talls, thanks to a drafting policy that has worked more by accident than design, we're desperately short of quality midfielders. We also have quite a lot of list cloggers in the 20 to 24 age bracket, too many to get rid of all at once.
Our Picks - Courtesy of finishing 14th, we have: #10, #32, #50, #68 (courtesy of the Phantom Draft board, currently only Brisbane has a formally activated priority pick). Rubbish picks, but we knew it was coming.
I don't follow the U18 leagues, so I'm not going to postulate who we'll go for, other than midfielders unnamed.
Obviously a new coach is going to have his own valuations and priorities, but this is what I currently think we'll do:
It's a shallow draft, and we're unlikely to go very deep into it. Like Fremantle of a few seasons ago we have too much clog to cut in one season, especially in such a poor draft, so don't expect a massive clean out - instead, a small number will go, and after a years evaluation where we'll be unlikely to finish much higher, we'll have a more comprehensive clean out when we have a draft we can go much deeper into, and have much earlier picks to use - an actual low number in the top 10, early second and third round picks in the 20's and 40's, plus the potential to use the Davis compensation pick, likely to be end of first round at worst, so again in the teens or early 20's. That's a lot better than trying to rebuild from a shallow draft where the GWS club starting picks are vastly distorting the order.
What has actually happened thus far (as of 5pm 19/10)
Departures
1. Stevens (Retired)
2. Moran (Retired)
3. Davis (Betrayed) (AFL Band 2 Compensation Pick)
4. Gunston + #53 + #71 (Hawthorn) (#24 + #46 + #64)
5. Armstrong + #35 + #X (Sydney) (Johnston)
6. Maric (Richmond) (Lynch)
7. Sellar (Delisted)
8. Cook (Delisted)
9. Young (Delisted)
10. Craig (Delisted)
Additions
1. #27
2. #41
3. #46
4. #64/PSD
5. Wright (Rookie Promotion #89)
6. Riley (Rookie Promotion #107)
7. Luke Brown (GWS) (AFL Band 2 Compensation Pick + #10)
8. Tom Lynch (STK) (Maric)
9. Lewis Johnston (SYD) (#35 + #X)
10. Josh Jenkins (Ess) (#31)
11. Brad Crouch* (Kindy) (AFL Band 2 Compensation Pick + #10)
-
Rookie 1. Ben Dowdell (Alternative Talent rule)
Rookie List
1. Wright (Promoted)
2. Riley (Promoted)
3. Callinan (Retained)
4. Sam Martyn (Retained)
5. von Bertouch (Delisted)
6. Roach (Delisted)
7. Schmidt (Delisted)
8. Milera (Delisted)
9. Duncan (?)
My original predictions, kept for posterity
Delistings
1. Stevens (Retired)
2. Davis (Betrayed)
3. Sellar
4. Cook
Draft
1. #10
2. #32
3. #50 (?)
4. Wright (Rookie Promotion)
Rookie List
1. Wright (Promoted)
2. Riley (Retained)
3. Callinan (Retained)
4. Sam Martyn (?)
5. von Bertouch (?)
6. Roach (?)
7. Schmidt (Delisted)
8. Milera (Already gone)
9. Duncan (Promoted from Scholarship)
Question marks because I don't honestly known how well the guys who haven't played are going
Possible Trade Bait
1. Knights
Post your ramblings after mine
Hence, with permission, I'm starting a new discussion. I'd wait until after the last game, but it's extremely unlikely that anything will change from here.
The Draft - The nature of the upcoming draft is now well known, and while the top 10 to 15 are as good as any other year, it's widely accepted that the depth drops off very sharply beyond this point, possibly one of the weakest in some time. This is opposed to the draft at the end of next year, which as it currently stands is shaping up to be the next super draft
Our List - Has problems. While we're still ok when it comes to talls, thanks to a drafting policy that has worked more by accident than design, we're desperately short of quality midfielders. We also have quite a lot of list cloggers in the 20 to 24 age bracket, too many to get rid of all at once.
Our Picks - Courtesy of finishing 14th, we have: #10, #32, #50, #68 (courtesy of the Phantom Draft board, currently only Brisbane has a formally activated priority pick). Rubbish picks, but we knew it was coming.
I don't follow the U18 leagues, so I'm not going to postulate who we'll go for, other than midfielders unnamed.
Obviously a new coach is going to have his own valuations and priorities, but this is what I currently think we'll do:
It's a shallow draft, and we're unlikely to go very deep into it. Like Fremantle of a few seasons ago we have too much clog to cut in one season, especially in such a poor draft, so don't expect a massive clean out - instead, a small number will go, and after a years evaluation where we'll be unlikely to finish much higher, we'll have a more comprehensive clean out when we have a draft we can go much deeper into, and have much earlier picks to use - an actual low number in the top 10, early second and third round picks in the 20's and 40's, plus the potential to use the Davis compensation pick, likely to be end of first round at worst, so again in the teens or early 20's. That's a lot better than trying to rebuild from a shallow draft where the GWS club starting picks are vastly distorting the order.
What has actually happened thus far (as of 5pm 19/10)
Departures
1. Stevens (Retired)
2. Moran (Retired)
3. Davis (Betrayed) (AFL Band 2 Compensation Pick)
4. Gunston + #53 + #71 (Hawthorn) (#24 + #46 + #64)
5. Armstrong + #35 + #X (Sydney) (Johnston)
6. Maric (Richmond) (Lynch)
7. Sellar (Delisted)
8. Cook (Delisted)
9. Young (Delisted)
10. Craig (Delisted)
Additions
1. #27
2. #41
3. #46
4. #64/PSD
5. Wright (Rookie Promotion #89)
6. Riley (Rookie Promotion #107)
7. Luke Brown (GWS) (AFL Band 2 Compensation Pick + #10)
8. Tom Lynch (STK) (Maric)
9. Lewis Johnston (SYD) (#35 + #X)
10. Josh Jenkins (Ess) (#31)
11. Brad Crouch* (Kindy) (AFL Band 2 Compensation Pick + #10)
-
Rookie 1. Ben Dowdell (Alternative Talent rule)
Rookie List
1. Wright (Promoted)
2. Riley (Promoted)
3. Callinan (Retained)
4. Sam Martyn (Retained)
5. von Bertouch (Delisted)
6. Roach (Delisted)
7. Schmidt (Delisted)
8. Milera (Delisted)
9. Duncan (?)
My original predictions, kept for posterity
Delistings
1. Stevens (Retired)
2. Davis (Betrayed)
3. Sellar
4. Cook
Draft
1. #10
2. #32
3. #50 (?)
4. Wright (Rookie Promotion)
Rookie List
1. Wright (Promoted)
2. Riley (Retained)
3. Callinan (Retained)
4. Sam Martyn (?)
5. von Bertouch (?)
6. Roach (?)
7. Schmidt (Delisted)
8. Milera (Already gone)
9. Duncan (Promoted from Scholarship)
Question marks because I don't honestly known how well the guys who haven't played are going
Possible Trade Bait
1. Knights
Post your ramblings after mine