Firmly on the Murphy bandwagon.
Judd only has the two genuine BOG chances in the first 14 rounds. Sydney, certainty, Melbourne will be a toss up between him and Murphy.
Judd winning or not will come down to how the umps vote in the thrashings. Rounds 1, 2 and 12, Judd will be thereabouts but is no certainty for the one, let alone the three. If he can poll 4-6 votes in these games, plus 3+3 in the other two, he's a genuine chance to win it.
Between rounds 15-21, put Judd down for 11-14 votes. Arguably BOG vs Richmond, our best in the Collingwood loss, BOG vs Essendon, Melbourne and Fremantle. Won't poll in the last 2 games.
Based on that, think he'll poll between 20-26 votes. Will be a ways back after 14 rounds but that 7 week period of domination means he's a very good chance.
Most of Judd's best games were in our wins, whereas Murphy put in some excellent performances in losses. How far he goes depends on how the umps judge him in those games. Essendon draw, Geelong loss, WC loss, Bulldogs loss, Hawthorn loss, Murphy was amongst our best.
In our wins, I think Murphy will poll 18-21 votes. He's fortunate that most of our losses were close, though I can't see him getting more than 3-6 votes in those games.
Estimates:
Chris Judd: 20-26
Marc Murphy: 21-27
That said, I probably expect Judd to finish towards the upper limit, whereas Murphy closer to 21. If I had to put exact guesses, Judd 24, Murphy 22.