2011 Draft Discussion #2

[lionshine]

Righto guys, you have sold me on Tomlinson, I must admit his highlights package is pretty impressive. If we take him with 8 and all of Greene, Sumner and Buntine are gone by 12 who do we take? I would take Kavanagh.

My preference would be a Buntine and Tomlinson combo however I would be happy with Sumner and Tomlinson or Kavanagh and Tomlinson. I am not as keen on Greene as much as others!

Cheers.

 

[BuntonRules]

Gee i hope we bite the bullet and take Tomlinson with pick 8. Seems quite level headed, has that real versatility for a tall and we've been well served by Trinity grammarians in the past. Hoping that Kavanagh will slide to us for 12, just have a good feeling about him, don't know why.

If he is still there. I never voted for him, but as more info has come, I am sold. The complete modern big man. Kersten is too much of a 1 trick pony for my likes. Kavanagh sounds good, but for sure there will be a god one to top up our midfield left at 12.

 

[whatboutbob]

I'm with you on this one POBT. IMO versatility is overrated, especially in KPPs. I'd take the potential star FF (Kersten) over the solid citizen swing-man every time - assuming there aren't more factors in play (attitude etc).

I'm finding it hard to warm to Tomlinson. He just seems a bit vanilla. While his fitness, "versatility" and attitude seem fantastic, I've just not seen the magic that will make him a star KPF. He could well make a very capable KPD, but gee, 12 is a lot to spend on a KPD.

While (IMO) we desperately need KPP's, if they're not there, they're not there. Hadley/Kerr have a lot more info than we do, so I'll back their judgement in, but if there are no great talls available I'd much rather take a great small and wait until next year, or go a more speculative tall option later.

 

[Bobby Beecroft]

I am weary about reading too much into the draft camp testing. There were plenty of awesome results, but from reports it does not correlate to a strong draft.

If these guys were considered potential JB/Nick Riewoldts then it wouldn't be considered a weak draft.

Completely misunderstood the point I was trying to make, (probably didn't make it overly well).

I didn't say he is JB/Rielwoldt, I am just trying to explain the reason for his strong rise - his endurance & made parallels to existing players. This coupled with the weak draft & even weaker KPP are part of the reason why he will go earlier than he would have in a stronger draft & earlier thoughts.

 

[Hollow Knight]

Can't help but think we are heading into that psychological window of cognitive dissonance 2 weeks out from the draft where perceptions of draftees go from being exciting commodities to genuine realities who may soon be on your club's list. Pre-emptive buyer's remorse sets in - and as a result, beliefs become challenged and the flaws become magnified.

Kersten is fat and lazy btw.

 

[Bucking Beads]

Don't know about Kavangah, do we have room for another Special K?? I prefer a Tenacious D in Docherty..

 

[Grimreepah]

Completely misunderstood the point I was trying to make.

In relation to your comment:

I think you maybe missing what it is that people are excited abouut with Tomlinson - what sets him apart from the pack.

I would argue that this is not neccessarily the case, as the pack did exceedingly well this year in the endurance tests.

If we are going to talk up his draft camp results as indicator of how good a player he is, then by logic his peers' draft camp results should be seen as equally impressive, which by logic would equate to a very strong draft.

My point is that the draft camp results this year are almost a bit of a red herring. We have gleaned that he is a very good endurance runner, but if this is his major selling point then I'm a little sceptical.

I didn't say he is JB/Rielwoldt, I am just trying to explain the reason for his strong rise - his endurance & made parallels to existing players. This coupled with the weak draft & even weaker KPP are part of the reason why he will go earlier than he would have in a stronger draft & earlier thoughts.

This is the logic I am disagreeing with. The draft as a whole is considered weak, yet the draft as a whole blitzed the endurance tests, so (particularly this year) endurance is not much of an indicator of quality.

 

[dmac_55]

Tomlinson highlight video reminded me a bit of Hendo! Hope his skills are a touch better tho..

 

[Banana Boots]

Don't know about Kavangah, do we have room for another Special K?? I prefer a Tenacious D in Docherty..

Wow, that's a bad dad joke

 

[PertRoosOsborne]

Can't help but think we are heading into that psychological window of cognitive dissonance 2 weeks out from the draft where perceptions of draftees go from being exciting commodities to genuine realities who may soon be on your club's list. Pre-emptive buyer's remorse sets in - and as a result, beliefs become challenged and the flaws become magnified.

Kersten is fat and lazy btw.

WTF!

Lately have you been writing political science or human resource essays TBD?

 

[Bucking Beads]

Wow, that's a bad dad joke

I wish I was a Dad..

 

[Hollow Knight]

WTF!

Lately have you been writing political science or human resource essays TBD?

Heh, no, but I do have a degree in political science. Must be exploring some old neural pathways.

 

[Lions1024]

Tomlinson highlight video reminded me a bit of Hendo! Hope his skills are a touch better tho..

Totally agree. Just can't seen him becoming a top line AFL player.

 

[dlanod]

I'm still holding out hope for a Patton/Conglio combo.

Sounds like your only chance of that one is to switch clubs.

 

[whatboutbob]

As it stands, I'd put money on the top 5 being Patton, Coniglio, Tyson, WHE and Buntine.

Wingard should be a monty @ 6.

Thereafter my crystal ball gets a bit murky.

If the media's to be believed, and both GWS and Brissy are interested in Tomlinson, then he'd have to be a 50/50 shot at 7 (ditto Longer).

Any which way, it looks likely we should at least be able to grab one, if not two, of Tomlinson, Longer, Greene, Kavanagh & Sumner et al.

If I had to chance my arm I reckon it'll go:

Patton, Coniglio, Tyson, WHE, Buntine, Wingard, Tomlinson, Greene, Longer, Sumner, Elton

 

[Banana Boots]

I wish I was a Dad..

Oops, sorry mate good luck .

Does anyone think we have a realistic chance of getting either
Ellis or Manson at 30?

 

[PattyKwasagun]

I wonder how close to settled Hadley is on who he wants. With all the talk on here, I've come around to probably wanting Greene the most now, but it will be interesting to see how differently/similar the club is thinking.

The top 10 does seem pretty set in stone, though, bar a few variations. It would seem only 12 or 13 are really possibilities of getting picked up from 1-10. Just wonder if there'll be a surprise on draft day in there. The whole GWS having so many early picks really suggests to me that they may pull out a few shock selections.

But anyway, what about pick 47? We've all discussed 8, 12, and now even 30, but where do you reckon we'll be looking down at 47? Often late in the draft is where Hadley proves his worth, so it should be interesting.

 

[Grimreepah]

The top 10 does seem pretty set in stone, though, bar a few variations.

In 2006 every BigFooty phantom draft had Gourdis in the top 10 and Gaertner in the first round. Gaertner ended up going 30 odd and Gourdis had to wait for the rookie draft.

BigFooty is somewhat insular, with many just echoing the thoughts of a few. This groupthink creates a false impression of certainty and shouldn't be confused as consensus among the people that matter.

Expect the unexpected. There are usually a few surprises, and I think with the draft already being partially raided by GWS (taking their choice of the 17 year olds) there will be more surprises than normal this year.

 

[thoselionslads]

Lots of talk about Hadley's ability to find gem's later on in the draft, but his first round prowess is somewhat of an unknown. Hadley has generally swayed quite significantly from bigfooty groupthink, it will be interesting to see if this is the case with two early picks.

 

[dmac_55]

I cannot see GWS taking Tomlinson before Longer IMO

 

[13Beast]

I'm interested to hear a general consensus in everybody's second-choice position picks. For example; for an inside ball-magnet, everyone here has more or less agreed upon Greene. And for an outside mid, most likely Sumner (or WHE if he's available). And for a KPF, it seems Kersten is the winner at this stage.
So what if these guys are gone, what's the consensus of second-best choices? If we want an inside contested possession player and Greene is gone, who's next in line to fill that capacity and likely available to us at our picks? Grigg? Nelson? Merrett?
And outside mid if Sumner/WHE are gone? Kavanagh?
Next choice KPF after Kersten? Paine? Dobosz?
I'm curious as to people's inklings as to the best likely remaining if all our preferred players are picked by other teams first.

 

[Banana Boots]

I'm interested to hear a general consensus in everybody's second-choice position picks. For example; for an inside ball-magnet, everyone here has more or less agreed upon Greene. And for an outside mid, most likely Sumner (or WHE if he's available). And for a KPF, it seems Kersten is the winner at this stage.
So what if these guys are gone, what's the consensus of second-best choices? If we want an inside contested possession player and Greene is gone, who's next in line to fill that capacity and likely available to us at our picks? Grigg? Nelson? Merrett?
And outside mid if Sumner/WHE are gone? Kavanagh?
Next choice KPF after Kersten? Paine? Dobosz?
I'm curious as to people's inklings as to the best likely remaining if all our preferred players are picked by other teams first.

My second choice's would probally be, behind Greene, Kavanagh although I would be really happy with both.

Outside mid would be in the order of WHE,Sumner and then I don't really know any others.the next best available.Grigg?

Behind kersten I'd pick Manson then Dobosz.

 

[PattyKwasagun]

I cannot see GWS taking Tomlinson before Longer IMO

Unless they believe we wouldn't take Longer, and instead bet on being able to pick him up after us.

 

[pauldrc]

I think given our current ruck position, it would be pretty easy to send a clear signal that we will take Longer if he is there, if that is what we are thinking, to then help get us say, a Tomlinson.

OTOH, we may actually be looking at Longer, and may well be prepared to draft him should he slide....

 

[whatboutbob]

Interesting to read Emma's tweet that we're after competitors (backing up crispy creme's recent musing).

Who fits that bill?

Greene, Smith (x2), Docherty & Haynes spring to my mind.