2011 Draft Discussion #2

[The Flying Belgian]

I think we may be putting too much into a 'needs' selection. I think we all agree that we need a CHB but if that player is rated at either 8 or 12 by our recruiters then I can't see them taking him for the sake of a perceived need - rightly or wrongly. For that reason I see us coming out of 8 & 12 with two mids - one I/S worker and an O/S finisher.

I can see us with one of Wingard, Longer or Greene at 8 and with Wingard being a SA boy I would imagine he would be PA's choice (no rocket science there!) By the time #7 comes into play GWS will have put in place a midfield packed with potential - including Ward and Scully, so I don't think Greene will end up there- leaving Longer to GWS. IMO Buntine will already be gone by then.

I'm a bit of a fan of both Tomlinson and Kavanagh but I think we may overlook both - even if available. Maybe another Jack Redden type smokey could materialise at 12. I agree with most - a ruckman is a must for us and a project player would have to be on the radar at 47. Of course this could be turned on its head if GWS don't take Longer at 7.

Heard anything CC draft-wise? You've been rather quiet of recent times. Good to see you back regardless!

Ah, now I see why you're asking:

I think Jason Phelan is following the Emma Quayle line of thinking. Pretty sure she's mentioned both Greene and Tomlinson WRT us.

 

[Crimso]

Also having a Green and a Greene could get confusing.

Scott & Scott was confusing for most, but it worked well for us!

 

[Bobby Beecroft]

Heard anything CC draft-wise. You've been rather quiet of recent times. Good to see you back regardless!

Was going to ask the same.
Good to see CC back especially in November when he does some of his finest work.
Perhaps we need to be reading between the lines TFB.

 

[crispy creme]

Nothing concrete TFB, just keeping my ear to the ground and trying to put the pieces of the puzzle together. This is what I've come up with so far - but for all I know I may have put 2 and 2 together and come up with 5! The great thing with our current recruiting team is that they seem prepared to stick their neck out and come up with a bit of a surprise(Redden). Speaking to some involved with other clubs that may happen again - but who really knows? Pretty confident on Buntine not being available after pick 5 but again that comes down to the accuracy of the source. (How do you like that for a butt covering statement?)

 

[dmac_55]

8 years of Brennan was enough razzle dazzle for me! Would love another hard edged inside midfielder, still think there will be a gaping hole in their when Blacky hangs them up! Polec seems more outside to me, and Rich will develop more in that manner. We need someone who we can rely on in the trenches, and by the sounds of it Greene possesses good clearance winning ability..

 

[BigCat2]

In terms of 'extractors' coming through, we have Harwood and Green. Harwood probably provides more grunt, while Green is an excellent clearance player plus the burst speed to break free from packs. Polkinghorne will be similar if he develops.

Of course...they are no guarantees, so we may go for someone like Greene.

We do need both inside and outside players. However, ideally we'd like a bunch of midfielders in the Geelong mould, hard at it getting their own ball, while equally proficient running the lines.

 

[Hollow Knight]

8 years of Brennan was enough razzle dazzle for me! Would love another hard edged inside midfielder, still think there will be a gaping hole in their when Blacky hangs them up! Polec seems more outside to me, and Rich will develop more in that manner. We need someone who we can rely on in the trenches, and by the sounds of it Greene possesses good clearance winning ability..

Fair point about Rich. He's been playing predominantly inside out of necessity really. If we can get another more natural inside midfielder to take that load, Rich can play a little more of an outside midfield role where he can unleash that left foot, or even spend some time setting up off half back like Bryce Gibbs.

I rated Greene anyway, but now I realise that he may actually fill a genuine need.

 

[blackpowerlappin]

Fair point about Rich. He's been playing predominantly inside out of necessity really. If we can get another more natural inside midfielder to take that load, Rich can play a little more of an outside midfield role where he can unleash that left foot, or even spend some time setting up off half back like Bryce Gibbs.

I rated Greene anyway, but now I realise that he may actually fill a genuine need.

I still maintain that we need another playmaker. I would love love to see us look at a quality attcking half back with dare and elite kicking skills. I also think that a KPP is required, a back before a forward, but we want someone that posesses height (194+) and traits of the modern day KPP. A tank and marking prowess if KPF, closing speed, reach,height and spoiling ability if KPD IMO.

Now unfortunately, I don't get to see the young talent live or in depth other than the lucky chance I stumble on You Tube or other footage.

It seems to me that this compromised draft is about best available. If that means two KPPs, two mids one outside, one inside or two of each it doesn't matter. What I expect is that Hadders and the crew pick value! Kerr advised us all that we needed pick 12 because the tall talent waned passed 15. Fine, happy with that, pick 1 pick 2 of them as long as they are the best available.

We have plenty of development ahead of us, one to replace Black? One to replace Power? We have some on the list already. Genuine KPPs for Brownie, and the loss of Clark, the obvious needs at CHb and back up for the red head at FB. We have needs that require the best possible match.

From what I know next year is a replica 2001 ND, needs can be met then, this year is about value IMO.

For the record I would go with Buntine and Tomlison as my first two picks if they were available.

 

[LIONHART]

Scott & Scott was confusing for most, but it worked well for us!

we also had clark & clarke last year, you get used to it.

 

[POBT]

While you can overestimate "need", you can also overemphasise "best available". Clearly, recruiters are going to be swayed by their existing list structure. Does it mean that they'll take a certain type of player just because he fits the need? Obviously not. But equally, they aren't going to add someone who is simply going to add a strength, when there could be a player available of roughly the same "draft rating" who fills a need.

The advantage of having both picks inside the top 12 is that we can afford to be strategic. If we rate Greene as a top 5 player, for example, then we can take him at pick 8 knowing that we can be more needs focused with pick 12. However, I don't necessarily think it means that we will go tall with at least one of 8 or 12 because our list needs are many - tall defenders/forwards are just one.

I'm not convinced that Greene is the right choice for us. That said, if the club rates him incredibly highly, then he's hardly going to be superfluous to needs given we've still got a long way to go to build our midfield to elite standards.

 

[POBT]

So he is a Joel Selwood without the injuries leading up to the draft.
Pfft why would we need one of that type?

His TAC stats for the season are phenomenal.

http://www.sportingpulse.com/team_i...pID=192369566&client=1-3020-0-150804-14536848

I think Conoglio is the Joel Selwood without the injuries. Selwood was the best midfielder of his cohort, like Conoglio. Right now, Greene is maybe a top 5 midfielder from his draft year - Conoglio, Wingard, Tyson are all certainly seen as better prospects. Bit hard to compare Greene to Selwood - one was always seen as elite, the other is starting to come into top 10 calculations but is no surefire bet.

Maybe the more accurate comparison from Selwood's draft year is David Armitage - shot up the rankings late on the back of inside ball winning and an OK set of skills. Just saying.....

 

[Quigley]

I have posted my reviews on most of the others so here is Greene.

Toby Greene
DOB 25/9/93 Ht 180 Wt 78

For many Greene has been the surprise packet of the year. He has come from a mile back at the start of the year to win the Metro MVP of the carnival and just have a great all around year. He averaged 24.5 disposals a game at the Champs and is a very good shot at being a top 10 pick in the draft this year.

Greene is a bit of a baby faced assassin. He is a quiet young guy apparently and combine that with him looking about 12 and it’s easy to underestimate him. Despite appearances though he is a tough inside mid who has turned himself into an absolute ball magnet. He may not be an elite reader of the ball off hands but he is always around the pill and when he gets a chance at the ball he attacks and has very clean hands.

Greene has a midrange top speed but he has a great burst with his first couple of steps. He can explode into motion and use it to clear the contest or shut down the opposition ball handler. He uses this burst very well and it is a feature which sets him apart from most inside mids available. In the contest he has exceptional awareness of where everyone is around him he is very good at deciding when to hold the ball and when to get it away. He is very elusive and has great agility which he uses to avoid being tackled and as a consequence he usually seems to have more time than those around him. He has the ability to hang onto the ball a second or two more than most and waits for things to open up for him. The ability to stop on a dime and then go at full pace another way straight after also makes him a very difficult guy to tackle. Even when he is tackled he has good composure and doesn't rush his disposal.

Although he is predominantly an inside player he does cover a lot of ground and links up well. He can be a bit sloppy with his kicking although this has improved out of sight this year. He does not have much in the way of penetration but he usually weights his kicks pretty well. At AFL level there will continue to be a big focus on his kicking and generally getting more velocity into his kicks but there is nothing to suggest it will not continue to improve as it has done this year.

He has worked hard at improving his endurance this year and this is one of the reasons he has been able to step up and dominate as he has done. He ran an elite 15.2 in the beep test at Combine and he brings this kind of running ability to his game. He is a gut runner who gets to every contest no matter where it is on the ground. He will pop up deep in the back line one minute and then be on the end of the chain at the other end the next.

He is not a particularly good shot on goal and realises it and often will look to hand off. When he does take a shot he is prone to missing goals he should get. Overall though he would be close to if not the best inside prospect available this year and if a team needs help in the clearances he is one they should look at. Further not only will he win the ball in the packs he will spread and work hard in open play. He does need to polish his game a bit but what is there at the moment in very much needed in the modern game.

 

[Quigley]

I think Conoglio is the Joel Selwood without the injuries. Selwood was the best midfielder of his cohort, like Conoglio. Right now, Greene is maybe a top 5 midfielder from his draft year - Conoglio, Wingard, Tyson are all certainly seen as better prospects. Bit hard to compare Greene to Selwood - one was always seen as elite, the other is starting to come into top 10 calculations but is no surefire bet.

Maybe the more accurate comparison from Selwood's draft year is David Armitage - shot up the rankings late on the back of inside ball winning and an OK set of skills. Just saying.....

Hopefully Greene is not a chain smoker.

 

[13Beast]

Quigley - nice report on Greene. Sounds like just the kind of player Port needs. If Longer and Wingard are gone, I'd expect Port to take him. I'd even say Port's ruck stocks aren't so bad, and I've heard a few other people on the forums speculate that Port may even pass on Longer if he was available to fulfil other pressing needs. Longer would be a nice little pickup for the Lions at 8!

 

[whatboutbob]

A great write-up on Greene Quigs. Perfectly captures why I rate him. I've said it before, but although we have more pressing needs elsewhere I wouldn't be disappointed to see the Lions pick him. He's just got a bit of class about him.

 

[13Beast]

What about Shane Nelson? Anybody have any thoughts on him?

 

[Ironmonger]

Quigs review makes him sound a lot like Black.

 

[whatboutbob]

Interesting to see Phelan rate Kersten's draft range as 13-25. Seems a little too specific to dismiss as a coincidence.

 

[Hollow Knight]

Interesting to see Phelan rate Kersten's draft range as 13-25. Seems a little too specific to dismiss as a coincidence.

Are you only perceiving it as specific because it is the pick after ours? Would another team's supporters see it as specific?

 

[Quigley]

Interesting to see Phelan rate Kersten's draft range as 13-25. Seems a little too specific to dismiss as a coincidence.

I think he just has us slotted in for Tomlinson and I wouldn't read too much into it.

Big tip that Freo are interested in him though if he gets to them.

 

[whatboutbob]

Are you only perceiving it as specific because it is the pick after ours? Would another team's supporters see it as specific?

You don't read anything into it?

 

[thoselionslads]

Interesting to see Phelan rate Kersten's draft range as 13-25. Seems a little too specific to dismiss as a coincidence.

Nice pick up Bob - very specific isn't it.

The thing I find most intriguing about this draft for us is what will happen if Tomlinson is gone before 12 and Hadley & co. don't rate the other talls.

I guess the only way we will find out is if we don't take a tall with 8 or 12 - the we definately know the talls were low on our list. It's hard to gauge, but how how far are we willing to reach in order to grab a tall?

 

[whatboutbob]

I think he just has us slotted in for Tomlinson...

Aye, that's my take on it.

 

[POBT]

The thing I find most intriguing about this draft for us is what will happen if Tomlinson is gone before 12 and Hadley & co. don't rate the other talls.

I'm a little suspicious of the links with Tomlinson and Greene, to be honest. IMO, it smacks of a red herring. I could be wrong but this is the year to keep your cards close to your chest. GWS are going to try and pre-empt who Port and Brisbane are likely to take so a bit of silly buggers wouldn't go astray.

 

[whatboutbob]

I'm a little suspicious of the links with Tomlinson and Greene, to be honest. IMO, it smacks of a red herring. I could be wrong but this is the year to keep your cards close to your chest. GWS are going to try and pre-empt who Port and Brisbane are likely to take so a bit of silly buggers wouldn't go astray.

Concur.

They're just believable enough to be unbelievable IMO.