Preview 2012 AFL Draft

[Dogs_r_barking]

I like the idea of trading up for a top 4 draft pick. An elite midfielder (Judd, Hodge, Goddard) or a top full forward (Riewoldt, Brown) would set us up for the next decade. (I also like the fact that Macca wants to grow his own).

Stop using Melbourne as an example of high draft picks being duds. It doesn't matter how talented the kids are they still have to be developed, that hasn't happened at Melbourne (along with a poor fitness base).

Think of the Saints top draft picks or the Hawks, or even Collingwoods that is what we are aiming for I hope.

Yes, some clubs have been lucky with their drafting noticeably Geelong, but their handy f/s also had a hand in their premierships.

 

[dogsbody]

I don't think you'll find too many who would disagree with top 4 picks are better than top 10 picks

No doubt at all. Cooney (pre injury) and Griffen are head and shoulders above anyone else in the team. Compare them with the next picks 4, and 6 respectively, in the same drafts, Ray and Williams.

we can get those top top picks, and sure they're fantastic - but at what cost?

We can't, now. The C'wood, St Kilda and Geelong results were terrific, honourable losses. The North win was a pointless win. None of Melbourne or the 2 new clubs are likely to win more than 3 - 4 matches so we can't finish below them. Similarly, it's unlikely that both Brisbane and Port will win more so our lowest finish is likely to be 13th, that's picks 7 & 8. That's Higgins, Power, McMahon.

Even given the imminent retirement of Murphy, Lake, Cross, Giansiracusa, Hargrave, with the improvement of Jones, Grant, Higgins, Wood, Dalhouse and Roughead and the blooding of Wallis, Liberatore, Howard, Austin and more to come from Tutt, perhaps Pearce, the rise will start next year so this year is our last opportunity of getting low picks for, perhaps, 10 years.

At absolutely minimal to no cost, just inject at least one young player/debutant a week.

 

[gangsta deluxe]

Sorry, did you just say that the St Kilda result was a "terrific, honorable loss"?!

On the whole though, I agree. Tanking is a must. We only get one shot at this. We shouldn't **** it up.

 

[Morris Major]

At absolutely minimal to no cost, just inject at least one young player/debutant a week.

I mean if we wanted to, at the start of the season when we activated our GWS compo pick, we can plan to throw the season away and get low picks. And by cost I am referring to the impact on the club and the players after tanking.

Melbourne is the fashionable example right now. Unlike WCE (if they tanked) and Carlton, we don't have premiership players to bring the youngsters on. And we're not genuinely shit enough to justify finishing that low, unlike Richmond.

And surely you can't just use previous drafts as a yardstick of what we can get picks 1-5 compared to 6-10, we could draft the next Joel Selwood at pick 7 or the next Jarrad Oakley Nicholls at pick 8 for all we know

 

[josh the gent]

No doubt at all. Cooney (pre injury) and Griffen are head and shoulders above anyone else in the team. Compare them with the next picks 4, and 6 respectively, in the same drafts, Ray and Williams.

There are examples both ways though - look at 2006. Picks 2 and 3 were Gumbleton and Hansen, picks 4 and 5 are Leuenburger and Boak. Pick 7 was Selwood.

We can't, now. The C'wood, St Kilda and Geelong results were terrific, honourable losses. The North win was a pointless win. None of Melbourne or the 2 new clubs are likely to win more than 3 - 4 matches so we can't finish below them. Similarly, it's unlikely that both Brisbane and Port will win more so our lowest finish is likely to be 13th, that's picks 7 & 8. That's Higgins, Power, McMahon.

Even given the imminent retirement of Murphy, Lake, Cross, Giansiracusa, Hargrave, with the improvement of Jones, Grant, Higgins, Wood, Dalhouse and Roughead and the blooding of Wallis, Liberatore, Howard, Austin and more to come from Tutt, perhaps Pearce, the rise will start next year so this year is our last opportunity of getting low picks for, perhaps, 10 years.

At absolutely minimal to no cost, just inject at least one young player/debutant a week.

It's a possibility this year, that we could swap our second first rounder, pick 8, for the first pick in the mini-draft. Jack Martin, or Jesse Hogan.

We might even be able to downgrade say pick 8 to pick 20, for the second pick in the mini-draft.

Both those players are touted as high-level KPFs.

Looking at the mini-draft from last year, they say that Jaeger O'Meara (taken by Gold Coast for effectively pick 4), would have gone number 1 this year. On that basis, we can still access the very best talent.

I think that the positive experience for 12-14 young players in our team, of winning 7-9 games this year, far outweighs the benefits of losing more games intentionally and getting 2-3 earlier positions in the draft.

 

[stefoid]

There are examples both ways though - look at 2006. Picks 2 and 3 were Gumbleton and Hansen, picks 4 and 5 are Leuenburger and Boak. Pick 7 was Selwood.





It's a possibility this year, that we could swap our second first rounder, pick 8, for the first pick in the mini-draft. Jack Martin, or Jesse Hogan.

We might even be able to downgrade say pick 8 to pick 20, for the second pick in the mini-draft.

Both those players are touted as high-level KPFs.

Looking at the mini-draft from last year, they say that Jaeger O'Meara (taken by Gold Coast for effectively pick 4), would have gone number 1 this year. On that basis, we can still access the very best talent.

I think that the positive experience for 12-14 young players in our team, of winning 7-9 games this year, far outweighs the benefits of losing more games intentionally and getting 2-3 earlier positions in the draft.

The mini-draft has 17yo, doesnt it?

I think our need for midfielders is greater than our need for KPF, so sacrificing a pick which has a pretty good chance of securing us a good 18yo mid, in order to pick up a 17yo KPF doesnt make any sense to me unless the player in question is guarenteed to be the next incarnation of Carey or Ablett Snr.

A 17yo KPF might not have any impact at senior level for 5-6 years!! (age 22+)

 

[Mitcha]

Well, the top 3 key forwards in the draft would be:

1. Mason Shaw (top 3-4);

2. Jake Stringer (top 3-4)

3. Spencer White (1st rounder)


However, I would prefer the Club draft Lachlan Plowman with its first pick.

Sorry Doggy but not sure you are serious, White is in no way a first rounder, in fact in all likelihood may miss out altogether, Hunter probably the only Jet in contention to be drafted in 2012.

 

[wian]

why do some people say that Murphy's retirement is imminent?

with his evasive skills and lack of being tackled compared to most players in the league, he wont be retiring for at least 4 years IMO

He is easily good enough to be like a Dust Bin Fletcher type player, playing well into his mid 30's

 

[Bazza Bulldog]

Hard to argue with you We really do need to keep playing the kids because some tough decisions will need to be made at the end of the year. It's all well and good predicting where we'll finish and who or what we'll get but just as important is who goes??

I stand corrected but Moles, Addison, Hargrave, Gilbee, Skinner, Minson, Higgins, Hooper, Mulligan are all out of contract this season and I'm certain there's others... So who stays and who goes? How manny picks do we need? How many rookies do we elevate?

Get it right and we could get back up the ladder faster than some may think....get it wrong and we're in trouble....BIG TIME

Sorry to be retrospective but line breaking mid = Dangerfield (07), not JGrant. Key forward = Reiwoldt (or Frawley) (06), not Everitt. The lower the pick, does not always increase the odds of getting it right. At least we haven't got Scott Clayton gunning for the left field pick in the hope of another B.Lake.

 

[Dogs_r_barking]

Sorry to be retrospective but line breaking mid = Dangerfield (07), not JGrant. Key forward = Reiwoldt (or Frawley) (06), not Everitt. The lower the pick, does not always increase the odds of getting it right. At least we haven't got Scott Clayton gunning for the left field pick in the hope of another B.Lake.

Clayton always tried to be a little too clever, and never pulled it off. Would have been better going for the conventional draft pick ie Jack Riewoldt etc.

 

[scooter600x]

I would say Minson is the only one of real trade value

Minson has no trade value. As a free agent he could just walk and we would get AFL decided compensation (you can just imagine how pathetic that would be)

 

[tonydean]

Minson has no trade value. As a free agent he could just walk and we would get AFL decided compensation (you can just imagine how pathetic that would be)

I know, this sucks. But if he does go, a pick is still a pick, so you take it I guess!

 

[Dogs_r_barking]

So if we end up 14th or 15th, what picks would that give us? Melbourne has an extra 1st round pick to be taken after their first pick, does GC or GWS (from a trade for the Mini Draft I thought one was exchanged with GWS).

If that was the case we would have picks 5 or 6.

 

[Igloo]

Based on current ladder, it's:

GC
GWS
Melb
Melb
Dogs
Dogs

So picks 5 and 6.

Melbourne not finishing last is massively in our best interests. I believe GC would big on Viney (GWS wouldn't I don't think), and Melbourne will take him with their first pick. I firmly believe they'll take Brodie Grundy with their 2nd (GWS won't take him, they want a more experienced ruck, and GC have enough young rucks). That will leave us with any mid apart from Whitfield and most likely Stringer, and whoever else we want to pick (my stance on that is well known - Shaw But im starting to think about others too, less certain about it).

All based on current ladder anyway. Im hoping we finish higher than this, and think we will.

 

[Dogs_r_barking]

Thanks Igloo, check out the ladder. I think we could finish as high as 12 or as low as 15.

http://www.afl.com.au/Ladder/tabid/74/Default.aspx

 

[stefoid]

Based on current ladder, it's:

GC
GWS
Melb
Melb
Dogs
Dogs

So picks 5 and 6.

Melbourne not finishing last is massively in our best interests. I believe GC would big on Viney (GWS wouldn't I don't think), and Melbourne will take him with their first pick. I firmly believe they'll take Brodie Grundy with their 2nd (GWS won't take him, they want a more experienced ruck, and GC have enough young rucks). That will leave us with any mid apart from Whitfield and most likely Stringer, and whoever else we want to pick (my stance on that is well known - Shaw But im starting to think about others too, less certain about it).

All based on current ladder anyway. Im hoping we finish higher than this, and think we will.

Yes, melbourne possibly screwed themselves over big time there. vieny was their for a second rounder if they managed to finish last. owwwww.

 

[100action]

Based on current ladder, it's:

GC
GWS
Melb
Melb
Dogs
Dogs

So picks 5 and 6.

I now endorse the mid-season draft.

 

[Slattery_20]

Yes, melbourne possibly screwed themselves over big time there. vieny was their for a second rounder if they managed to finish last. owwwww.

They still have 2 other first round picks. They'll live.

 

[King_snow]

Id put our first pick on a FF, the rest on outside mids,

 

[Butane]

You know one thing thats never mentioned when someone talks about dropping down the ladder and getting higher draft picks....

...It's not just the difference between picks 4 and 7 it means getting pick 23 and 26 and then 40 instead of 43(roughly). I know it's not much but we could possibly get 3 of those young guns listed above + Lachlan Hunter.

I'd rather be winning games anyway but I'm just looking for positives in what has been a bleak week.

 

[Dogs_r_barking]

Unbelievable how many people want the club to win as few games as possible.

High draft picks does not equate to quality players. You only need to look at Melbourne as a case in point.

Later (even Rookie) picks could well yield quality / serviceable long term players. This club is an obvious example of that.

Yes, then look at the Saints (Goddard, Riewoldt), Collingwood (Pendlebury, Thomas) and even Carlton (Murphy, Kreuzer) and hell even Port's round 1 draft picks are pure class. Melbourne is a exception not the rule.

 

[Dogs_r_barking]

I think our greatest need is for a power full forward, come on the only one I ever saw play for the Bulldogs was Granty, and he wasn't really a true full forward. That is why we have to do what we have to do (not tanking though) to get a high a pick as possible.
I think you can pick up skilful quick midfielders well outside the top 10, and even in the second and third round.

 

[King_snow]

I think our greatest need is for a power full forward, come on the only one I ever saw play for the Bulldogs was Granty, and he wasn't really a true full forward. That is why we have to do what we have to do (not tanking though) to get a high a pick as possible.
I think you can pick up skilful quick midfielders well outside the top 10, and even in the second and third round.

Thank christ! someone that speaks sense

 

[Libba39]

I think that the common theme these days is that you take the best player available at the time. If it's 50/50 as to which player you pick then perhaps you would look at it from a list point of view.

Personally I think we need speed, and we also seem to lack mobile utility players in that 188-193 cm range that are hard to match up on.

 

[dogzrule]

I think our greatest need is for a power full forward, come on the only one I ever saw play for the Bulldogs was Granty, and he wasn't really a true full forward. .

Beeeaaaassssaaaaaaaa 18