2012 Draft Discussion

[POBT]

Just a thought, do people think the injury to Retzy makes the club more likely to opt for a kpf in the draft, or has no influence.

Not sure it makes a difference HH.

It is actually an interesting dilemma. For all the talk about getting another KPF, we do have 3 under the age of 22. A 4th in roughly same age bracket creates a list imbalance. The issue is that none of the 3 currently on the list have done enough at senior level for us to reliably lock them in for 150+ games in a key forward post. Furthermore, none of the 3 were drafted as elite junior talent and so are somewhat speculative in that regard.

By this stage of the season, I normally have a pretty good idea of what "type" I think we need with our first draft pick but I'm not sure I can pick it this year. So much depends on how highly regarded Retzy and co are.

At the moment, I am leaning towards the safe option of simply taking the best available midfielder and not worrying about mini-drafts or KPPs.

 

[Fatcat08]

You would doubt they would be inclined to give the two new clubs any more concessions, the howling from everywhere would be definite. I would think they would be unlikely to hand Melbourne another one to be honest given the compensation they got for Scully. Was almost a defacto compo pick. It would take a team down the bottom that was struggling both on and off the field and hadn't really had a history of compo picks for them to hand one out. Eg if us or Port somehow found ourselves down there in the near future I think the AFL would be likely to hand one out. Not that I think that's going to happen. You could make a case for seeing Geelong or St Kilda down there in about 3 years time to be honest, and possibly the bulldogs although their father son stable may save them.

 

[jjami15]

The issue is that none of the 3 currently on the list have done enough at senior level for us to reliably lock them in for 150+ games in a key forward post. Furthermore, none of the 3 were drafted as elite junior talent and so are somewhat speculative in that regard.

It's this statement that highlights the real reason that we should draft an elite KPF junior talent. None of the KPF on our list will not even make it to 50+ games and if they do it will be that there is no-one else to push for that spot.

 

[POBT]

None of the KPF on our list will not even make it to 50+ games and if they do it will be that there is no-one else to push for that spot.

I reckon that is way too early a call to be making from the outside looking in.

 

[JasRulz63]

I don't think our players up the field give enough supply to see how good our forwards that have played in seniors can be. I did a quick look at our inside 50's differentials;

v Melbourne (56-48) +8
v Carlton (41-67) -26
v Fremantle (20-52) -32
v Gold Coast (60-47) +13
v Geelong (54-46) +8
v Essendon (44-68) -24
v Collingwood (38-66) -28
v GWS (65-32) +33
v North (46-60) -14
v West Coast (51-52) -1
v Hawthorn (41-71) -30

Average differential of -8.5 inc. the GWS game. If you don't include that game it's -12.6. When we get beaten, we lose the i50 count by a lot, and when we win (except the GWS game) the i50 count is close.

If we keep losing the i50 count by that much, our forwards are going to have a hard time looking good in the seniors if the ball isn't come down there a lot.

 

[Crusha]

Anyone who wants to go and have a look at a few of our academy players run around the Champs are in Brisbane this weekend with Qld playing Tasmania at 11am on Saturday at Yeronga. Looking forward to hearing a few reports.

Just back from the U/18's match vs Tasmania - won by Tassie 9.7.61 to 6.17.53.
Qld had the chances to win, should have won .........and didn't. As you can see from the score line they lacked some finish in front of the sticks, and that was the difference.

From a draft viewpoint (not necessarily BOG but displayed "draftable" qualities - there is a difference), the stand outs for me were:
From Qld
Clay Cameron - played in defence (except for a short stint at CHF early in the third qtr - showed great skills by both hand and foot, was clinical in his distribution from the back, took some strong defensive marks and spoiled effectively - to me he showed he was the most draftable player on the park, and may well be Qld's first top 20 pick since Armitage.
I believe he is eligible to GC as an Academy pick, and if I am correct, pencil him for them now in your mock drafts.
Isaac Conway - continues to impress me - was good again today and clearly a class above the rest of the mids on display in all aspects - skills, smarts, courage, etc.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe we will have access to him via an Academy selection, and I would expect Kerr & co. to consider that option. What that would cost us I am unable to guess, not yet having seen much of the remaining midfield talent available in this draft. I expect though that a 2nd round selection would be our most likely call, given where I expect to finish on the ladder (he would be a steal if we could get him with a later pick).
Andrew Boston - I tend to expect more from him each time I watch him, don't know why. But he got a fair bit of it today, mostly hovering off the fringes and transitioning from half back (lots of uncontested possessions - which suggests he made good position) - was not always accurate with his disposal (most of which was by foot), but that was mostly the long stuff into the forward line, was reasonably effective in short. I have included him in the "draftable qualities" group because he "looks like a good footballer" and I expect he will find himself on a list somewhere at the end of the year.
Jordan Bourke - was well held early by the Tassie defence (I only recall noticing him once or twice in the first half), but came into the game in the 2nd half. Looked a likely match winner in the last qtr when the defence tired, and almost did just that - at least two of his goals came late when the match was up for grabs, but one that he missed (that he should have gotten) proved costly. Geelong would have father/son dibs on him - at 193cm and probably still growing (his old man was a giant of a man) I would expect he will be drafted.

From Tassie
Mitch Van Den Berg - clearly the most impressive draft showing by any of the Taswegians today - great pair of hands (I don't recall him putting anything to ground). His listing at 190cm surprises as he plays as though much taller - provided the perfect centre half forward link for most of Tassies forward thrusts and many of their scores eventuated after an involvement by him - only two goals, but one was the sealer late after a great grab under heavy pressure and an assured shot fro close to 50m out - he impressed me equally as much as Clay Cameron.
Andrew Blight - tallish defender (listed as 191cm) - some of the highest quality disposal under pressure I have seen (AFL Seniors included), including several 50m plus pin point passes to team mates on the run that not only cleared the ball from their defense but set up attacking options - he will feature from me on any Trade/Draft discussions later in the year at Mock time (Quigs - one for you to look at and assess).

Of the rest:
For Qld
Ives got plenty and had an influence - will suffer from the perennial "too small" - would need to see him some more
Grewar showed some glimpses, but let himself down with a couple of clangers - I like his toughness, attack on the ball - looks raw, but maybe there is "something" there to work on - perhaps he may be a rookie chance (???) - - - I also liked his game for Nthn NEAFL u/21 vs Eastern NEAFL a few weeks back
Tickner - put himself about in the forward line and got his hands to the ball quite often, but those hands let him down today - should not give up on him just yet
Wardle - was a surprise for me and one I will be watching more closely going forward - did a few impressive things today, also had a stint or two in the ruck and acquitted himself well for someone listed at 188cm
Wylde - 187cm defender (FBack) did a good job on their deep forward all day - was moved to Van Den Berg late (and this made VDB's late grab all the more impressive)
For Tassie
Tassie midfielders Walsh (x2), Lonergan and Webster (Zac) were your typical tough nuts and they were amongst it all day - nothing flashy with these guys, but plenty of grunt and determination

 

[Sunny_]

From a draft viewpoint (not necessarily BOG but displayed "draftable" qualities - there is a difference), the stand outs for me were:

Clay Cameron - played in defence (except for a short stint at CHF early in the third qtr - showed great skills by both hand and foot, was clinical in his distribution from the back, took some strong defensive marks and spoiled effectively - to me he showed he was the most draftable player on the park, and may well be Qld's first top 20 pick since Armitage.
I believe he is eligible to GC as an Academy pick, and if I am correct, pencil him for them now in your mock drafts.

Andrew Boston - I tend to expect more from him each time I watch him, don't know why. But he got a fair bit of it today, mostly hovering off the fringes and transitioning from half back (lots of uncontested possessions - which suggests he made good position) - was not always accurate with his disposal (most of which was by foot), but that was mostly the long stuff into the forward line, was reasonably effective in short. I have included him in the "draftable qualities" group because he "looks like a good footballer" and I expect he will find himself on a list somewhere at the end of the year.

Jordan Bourke - was well held early by the Tassie defence (I only recall noticing him once or twice in the first half), but came into the game in the 2nd half. Looked a likely match winner in the last qtr when the defence tired, and almost did just that - at least two of his goals came late when the match was up for grabs, but one that he missed (that he should have gotten) proved costly. Geelong would have father/son dibs on him - at 193cm and probably still growing (his old man was a giant of a man) I would expect he will be drafted.

Cheers for this info mate. Hope you don't mind, but I'll quote it in our own draft thread on the GC board.

Cameron we could have as a zone selection. Boston is the Suns Academy player.

 

[Crusha]

Clay Cameron -
I believe he is eligible to GC as an Academy pick

Isaac Conway -
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe we will have access to him via an Academy selection, and I would expect Kerr & co. to consider that option.



Tickner - put himself about in the forward line and got his hands to the ball quite often, but those hands let him down today - should not give up on him just yet

Sorry, corrections required:

As "Sunny" correctly pointed out, Clay Cameron is not eligible in 2012 via Academy, but available as Qld Zone selection.

Also:
Isaac Conway - is an "underager" (and not eligible for this years draft) - potential Academy selection in 2013 Draft.
Cain Tickner - likewise - potential Academy selection in 2013 Draft (has signed a Lions Academy Scholarship)

 

[HereIam86]

In today's Couriemail theres and article saying were keen on Aliir Aliir.

 

[jackess]

In today's Couriemail theres and article saying were keen on Aliir Aliir.

If we do draft him the first thing he needs is a nickname.

 

[mpal6]

our first rounder for mini draft pick no.1.
Package mini draft pick + <fringe player/pick> for one of Tippett/Beams?

 

[mpal6]

Surely Melbourne will take Grundy with an early pick.

That will be an interesting one.
Melbourne has Mitch, Jamar, Stefan Martin. They also have Max Gawn, Fitzpatrick and Spencer coming through. I have a feeling they'll go for mids, in turn Grundy sliding to us.

Ruckman with the first pick ?

 

[POBT]

That will be an interesting one.
Melbourne has Mitch, Jamar, Stefan Martin. They also have Max Gawn, Fitzpatrick and Spencer coming through. I have a feeling they'll go for mids, in turn Grundy sliding to us.

Ruckman with the first pick ?

I think there's a belief that Jamar will walk to a contender club at year's end. Clark is finally thriving as an almost full time full forward - about the only part of Melbourne's footy which is somewhat successful. More time in the ruck will rob Peter to pay Paul. Martin as a number 1 ruck is questionable. The others are yet to really come on.

It wouldn't surprise me to see Melbourne take a ruck early'ish.

 

[jackess]

I think there's a belief that Jamar will walk to a contender club at year's end. Clark is finally thriving as an almost full time full forward - about the only part of Melbourne's footy which is somewhat successful. More time in the ruck will rob Peter to pay Paul. Martin as a number 1 ruck is questionable. The others are yet to really come on.

It wouldn't surprise me to see Melbourne take a ruck early'ish.

Jamar signed a deal a couple of weeks back to stay.

Grundy is twice the ruckman than anyone else on their list.

 

[POBT]

Jamar signed a deal a couple of weeks back to stay.

Right. I just remembered seeing him on the free agent list.

 

[dane000]

our first rounder for mini draft pick no.1.
Package mini draft pick + <fringe player/pick> for one of Tippett/Beams?

worst post in 16 pages

 

[POBT]

worst post in 16 pages

I think we can be a bit more constructive than that.

 

[mpal6]

worst post in 16 pages

I believe we will struggle to land Tippett or Beams (if they are keen on moving) without a mini draft pick. Beams is having a breakout season (30+ disposals in 7/12 games) in the absence of Ball and Pendlebury. Tippett is getting a good run as well, 3+ goals in 5/12 games so far, with Adelaide dominating.

I am reluctant to trade any of our emerging players, they seem to show a lot more variety under Vossy's persistence. Harwood, whom I always thought as in-and-under replacement for Black is suddenly showing his ability in defense. Karnezis, who was a monty for a forward line role this season is playing defense in reserves and doing really well. Lester, a player with KPP build is running through the middle similar to Watson. We appear to be building a prototype of a team where players can swap positions at will and be comfortable with their new role.

Gold coast won't be keen on swapping their first pick this time, with Whitfield as the likely selection. Unless we put up a decent offer, I don't see Adelaide or Collingwood doing us any favors.

I usually don't respond to one line sniping, but there you go, I present my case for trading our first rounder and my reluctance to put any player package.

 

[pauldrc]

Good reasoning.

Will pick one in the Mini draft actually be stronger (or more attractive) though than pick 5-7 in the 2012 N D? Might in part depend on the teams needs and who is nominated for the mini draft....

You are also including another player/pick in this as well....but our N D pick may well be enough to do one of these deals if that is the route we are going down....

 

[Megaman123]

Good reasoning.

Will pick one in the Mini draft actually be stronger (or more attractive) though than pick 5-7 in the 2012 N D? Might in part depend on the teams needs and who is nominated for the mini draft....

You are also including another player/pick in this as well....but our N D pick may well be enough to do one of these deals if that is the route we are going down....

One of the touted picks in the mini draft is a WA lad who can take a fair mark, Jesse Hogan, who is rated almost as highly as Patton was last year as a KPF. He is 194 and athletic with real talent. Might be worthwhile for the Lions I reckon if they could grab him.

 

[The Flying Belgian]

Right. I just remembered seeing him on the free agent list.

Jamar is 28 though. Given rucks generally take at least 3 years to develop, the dees will need to think about replacing him as he nears retirement.

 

[Offsider]

Jamar is 28 though. Given rucks generally take at least 3 years to develop, the dees will need to think about replacing him as he nears retirement.

I would think that Grundy is a chance for Port Adelaide, the Demons and GWS. He is an excellent talent, right up there with Leuenberger and Natanui as pre-draft rating goes, he would be top 4 probably. Port have some decent young ruckman, but no star, Redden, Lobbe and Renouf all look solid types but not star and Grundy could fill this hole for them. GWS lack an elite young ruck prospect its a hole in their list that Sheedy has acknowledged. Grundy is 202cm and over 100kg all ready so he is probably likely to make a decent fist of it in his first year.

 

[Leuy LongerCombo]

Ruckman are always a bit of a lottery, can get a bargain as they can slip down or you can pay over to make sure you secure an elite talent. I dont really see him going past GWS, they seem to have prospect in most areas expect in the ruck.

Either way if he does slip through to us, we should just let him keep slipping. Understand that Ruckman hold value and we could always get something decent in return but we're not in the business of developing players for other team, we need to get elite talent together and let them develop and mature together.

 

[Leuy LongerCombo]

On the mini draft, not a fan of trading our first round for it. As mentioned I think that pick 5-7 is equally as valuable. I see the mini draft as a very sceptical thing.

Phantom drafts for juniors can vary dramatically, injury concern, off field indiscretions poor form in their drafting year can see a slip. Jack Darling is a fine example, first year at the u18 carnival was touted as Top 3 material, a year later dropped through to 26. (would have worked out alright, and worthy of a better pick)

Wonder what it will take to get a pick of GWS this year, last years compromised draft see teams paying extra,
I dont see teams giving up quiet as much???
Not a lot of Compo picks left, only GWS, Geelong, Gold Coast and West Coast (3rd round i think)

 

[mpal6]

Good reasoning.

Will pick one in the Mini draft actually be stronger (or more attractive) though than pick 5-7 in the 2012 N D? Might in part depend on the teams needs and who is nominated for the mini draft....

You are also including another player/pick in this as well....but our N D pick may well be enough to do one of these deals if that is the route we are going down....

I think it comes down to where their list is currently at. Both Collingwood and Adelaide are tracking well at present, a mini draft pick would give them an extra year with the kid well before he's even eligible to be drafted. Getting extra 12 months with the kid and having him part of the system would be a big bonus. It will set the club up really well in terms of list development long term.

Adelaide have already done it with Crouch and Brown, and they can repeat it one more time.

Compared to a 5-7 pick, In my opinion these clubs would definitely opt for a Jesse Hogan or Martin with an extra 12 months club monitored development free kick.

The additional pick I mentioned is how I see the clubs would try to trade (if it ever happens ), for that matter even we tried pick 16+ spare change for Mitch. When Freo tried to bend us over, we opted for pick 12 and walked away. so the expectation would be the pick+ as usual.