2012 Draft Discussion

[SizeMatters]

would be stoked if we manage to snare one of Macrae, Stringer or Toumpas one will slide you will think. I'm damn sure it won't be Toumpas though​

 

[Quigley]

I'd have to disagree, I think Conway is more outside where I've found wines to be a tough nut ball winner that we lack, there is also a massive size difference between the two, yes Wines is a year older but he'd have to be at least 10-15kg bigger than Conway, Conway won't be ready come round 1, 2014. In saying that it's like us talking about Whitfield or Grundy, Wines won't slip to us. Really for us it's MacRae or Mayes for the smalls or if Voss wants a KPD we may go Jaksch. Personally I like Mayes but you could argue a case for many players for that pick, it's a very good draft.

Based on the weights going into the Champs this year Conway is 1kg lighter than Wines. Conway is a nugget and will be heavier than Wines by this time next year and if any kid was going to be ready for round 1 2014 it would be Conway (barring injury). He is also definately an inside player and very much a clearance specialist when playing against his own age group. If anything he is more inside than Wines who at times I thought was outshone inside by Crouch and Whitfield at times for VC this year and got as many receives from clearances as clearance wins.

For those interested the Phantom should kick off today or tomorrow.

 

[spotthedog1]

For those interested the Phantom should kick off today or tomorrow.

Excellent... I could do with some light reading...

I agree with Irish - the top 10 is WIDE open. I'd say it's guaranteed that Grundy, Toumpas (sob) and Whitfield will be gone by our pick. From there, we could get any of Wines, O'Rourke, Stringer, Mayes, Plowman, or Macrae... and even guys like Jaksch, Garlett and Vlastuin have been referenced at our pick (I'm ignoring the ludicrous idea of getting Shaw 10-15 picks early just because he was once referred to as a JB-style player).

 

[dlanod]

An open question:

If it come down to a pick between Plowman and Jaksch at pick 8, who do you think the club will pick? Not who do you prefer.

I've been thinking about this because of our absence of top notch young KPPs. Plowman is obviously rated highly (higher than our pick) and Jaksch a bit below generally, but Jaksch apparently has more versatility in his ability to go back or forward, and versatility is something the club has put a premium on recently. Does anyone think the club is likely to boost him up a bit because of that?

 

[PykeDream]

He's not 13 yrs old, there's a decent chance he'll grow an extra cm before he stops growing but only a very very slim chance he's gonna grow an extra 3-7 cm.

Ok perhaps my estimate was a tad ambitious. Its just that we had our likely future CHB, Luke Thompson, grow from 192cm on draft day to now be listed as 196cm. Perhaps that's unusual and extraordinary, but I think there'd still be potential for an 18 year old to grow a bit.

 

[POBT]

An open question:

If it come down to a pick between Plowman and Jaksch at pick 8, who do you think the club will pick? Not who do you prefer.

I've been thinking about this because of our absence of top notch young KPPs. Plowman is obviously rated highly (higher than our pick) and Jaksch a bit below generally, but Jaksch apparently has more versatility in his ability to go back or forward, and versatility is something the club has put a premium on recently. Does anyone think the club is likely to boost him up a bit because of that?

I reckon Plowman fits the Hadley/Kerr model better. Not necessarily the best physical fit but clearly an exceptional footballer. I get the arguments around the growth in KP talls and the need for monster defenders to stand them but I reckon Plowman is a 200 game CHB/2nd tall who gives you way more than just a defensive contest. I reckon that will appeal to us.

I liked Jaksch at the champs but I think that was "he'd be a great pick up with our end of first round selection" rather than for pick 8. As it turns out, he's probably somewhere in between. If I was looking for someone to play back, I'd take Plowman. If I was looking for someone to play forward, I'd take Stringer or Shaw.

I take your point about Jaksch's versatility being a Hadley/Kerr desired attribute though.

 

[BlairForceOne]

Any reason why Plowman can't be groomed into a forward/midfielder role? I don't know much about him but it seems as if he is talked about only as a defender.

 

[jjami15]

For sometime now i have been rather reluctant towards Plowman, however if we were to grab him at 8 and that is because he not only fits our need but is the best available talent i would understand. Our current KPP who are best 22 are 27-28 and up and not much in between (Sorry Niall). So to have a look at the future and if all players were to make it we would have in about 4 - 5 years time a back line that could look like this. And this is only a snap shot, i would think that it would leave our backline quite healthy and let the club to concentrate on other areas. I wouldn't be adverse to go for Tanner Smith at our next pick as the shutdown backman that most need and could release Tickner to play forward. From all reports Clarke, Docherty and Plowman are also quite attacking backman where alot of attacking drives start.

B: Clarke Plowman Harwood

FB: Docherty Tickner Golby

 

[Grimreepah]

Plowman sounds a bit like Josh Gibson. Would that be a fair assessment?

 

[Bucking Beads]

Surely we don't want to waste pick 8 on a 3rd tall. Would be a poor decision IMO.

 

[jjami15]

Going on height as that what most people who assume that Plowman would play the third tall all i'm going to say is that Scarlett, Fisher and Glass are the same height and i'm not saying that he is going to be like them however someone here tell me that they wouldn't want one of them to have played for the Lions

 

[dlanod]

Surely we don't want to waste pick 8 on a 3rd tall. Would be a poor decision IMO.

I think the height thing is massively overblown. Our current B&F winner is someone who people view as not being a genuine CHB because of his height, but has stopped forwards week in and out for at least two great years. That's in addition to the usual options.

I don't want Plowman because I don't like the lack of romance in taking a first round KPD, but I'm not going to write him off because of his height.

 

[Quigley]

Lachlan Plowman
DOB: 11/9/94 Ht: 191 Wt: 86

Everyone is telling me how Plowman is the best key position defender available this year. My problem is that 191cm guys do not play key defence anymore. People point to the likes of Glass and Scarlett as being about the same height and I will tell you it is the 195cm guys like McKenzie and Lonergan or Taylor who are actually taking the primary targets and these guys are effectively now playing as third talls. A third tall is what I see Plowman playing as for his career and if I am drafting I don't spend a top 10 pick on a third tall unless he is an attacking weapon and that is not really what Plowman is.

Plowman has had a serious elbow injury this year which has kept him out of the Champs and restricted him to only 5 games. In those 5 games he finished in the best on 4 occasions so he certainly made them count. How successful Plowman is at AFL level could well be decided by the style of play of the team that picks him up. If he is allowed to play as the loose man in defence or in a read and react zone like Collingwood had under Malthouse then he could do very well. If he is asked to play an accountable role on key position forwards he will struggle. He is very confident in his own abilities and plays with flair. The extent to which his game will convert to the AFL will remain to be seen.

As a loose forward he judges the ball very well in the air and shows excellent judgement about when to mark the ball and when to spoil. Added to his spoiling repertoire is a very intelligent tap down which he uses if he has a teammate in a position to receive it. In that case he controls those taps very nicely. His hands over his head are pretty good but I would not say they are much more than that. His decision making on when to mark the ball and when to not, does make them seem better than they are and he times his cut-outs well enough to very often avoid contact. Below the knees they are better especially for someone who is nominally a key position.

Going forward he doesn't mind a gallop with the ball in hand but I think he is going to be in for a rude shock when he hits the AFL. He thinks he is quicker and more elusive than he is. Even at junior level he is not able to beat men all that often with those attributes and often has to resort to his fend. AFL defenders are going to drive through that fend and nail him a lot. He is also not going to be used to the chase that AFL forwards put on and at his pace he is going to run down from behind quite a lot early in his career. The other thing he has in his arsenal is a decent baulk. He sells it well enough but again AFL players are generally less prone to bite than junior forwards.

Skills wise he has some potential although he is a little inconsistent in his execution just yet. He is capable of delivering a nice flat kick to his target but more often than not he tends to wobble his kick to the target at 3/4 strength. Clubs will be confident knowing that he has that flat kick is available but he needs some work to make sure he uses it more often otherwise his kicks will be picked off fairly regularly.

Plowman is a capable close defender at junior level able to go stride for stride with his opposition. Similarly he uses his strength well in body on body contests and moves his opponent under the ball nicely. At senior level against much bigger, stronger and quicker key forwards I just struggle to see him being able to do the same. He may be more suited to playing roles on medium forwards if he has the pace. I think he is a pretty decent prospect but I struggle to rate him in the top 10 based on his physical limitations as a key position.

 

[Ruse]

Yeah I agree with Quigley, Scarlett and Glass were great back when the kpfs like riewoldt and pavlich and the like were around the same height, but Plowman will have to go up against monster combinations like franklin+roughead, Patton+Cameron, Hurley+Daniher, Lynch+Day all over 195cm+ even if he gets the 2nd forward he'll still be giving up a lot of height he'd better be a damn great defender and has the physique to be able to put on at least another 12kg of solid muscle to make it especially if we're giving up a pick 8 for him. Surely there's someone else available at a lower pick.

 

[jjami15]

Yep, Smith, 194cm (currently) best shutdown KPP in the draft.

 

[Quigley]

Yep, Smith, 194cm (currently) best shutdown KPP in the draft.

Clurey took the best forward every game for VC and even when he was getting beaten they still didn't move Smith onto Boyd, Flaherty or O'Brien. I think people describe Smith as a shut down defender because he can't kick and so they revert to a stereotype they know and the more people say it on here the more people assume it is correct.

I really don't think there are any really good one of one shut down KPDs this year. There are a few good read and react guys but no-one that I am comfortable assuming will be able to do a job on monster AFL FFs given a year or two to develop. I think a few will end up there but its a bit of a lottery who they will be.

 

[captainrich]

Clurey took the best forward every game for VC and even when he was getting beaten they still didn't move Smith onto Boyd, Flaherty or O'Brien. I think people describe Smith as a shut down defender because he can't kick and so they revert to a stereotype they know and the more people say it on here the more people assume it is correct.

I really don't think there are any really good one of one shut down KPDs this year. There are a few good read and react guys but no-one that I am comfortable assuming will be able to do a job on monster AFL FFs given a year or two to develop. I think a few will end up there but its a bit of a lottery who they will be.

Hey, you seem to be the expert, how would you rate Rodda would he be a better option?

 

[Quigley]

Rodda had an absolute shocker against Daniher and looked undraftable. If you take that game out he wasn't to bad. He reminds me a lot of Matthew Watson from Carlton. He is a great kick of the ball but not very physical despite being a big lad. He needs to learn how to use his body. When he plays in front and leads his man to the ball he is quite good. When he plays behind or gets into body on body contests he is not so good. He has improved over the year though (as has Smith) and you would think there is more improvement in him.

Personally I would take Rodda over Smith only because I think Rodda's deficiencies are more easily fixable and his kicking could be a real weapon. Both are far from finished products though and each has risks.

 

[CallumBartlett]

We can't have 10 kpds on our list just in case 5 get injured its just not viable. If a couple of players get injured then lester, lisle, staker and mckeever can fill in and if necessary clarke will get promoted that's enough talls we're not desperate enough to draft a kpd at pick 8 just yet.

Agree all I'm saying is hypothetically Merrett and Maguire go down before round 1, we are screwed. So then Patfull and Martin have to play Darling and Kennedy, Buddy and Roughead, Walker and Tippett. IMO the KPD's we have are very talented, they all are potentially AA on the right day, the problem is depth and no I'm not asking for 10 of them, but maybe just 1 more monster of a highly rated kid, not someone we find picking potatoes in Northern South Australia or playing Gaelic Football.

 

[jackess]

I think KPD is probably the toughest position to draft. Look at how many are late or rookie picks or used to be forwards.

 

[POBT]

I think KPD is probably the toughest position to draft. Look at how many are late or rookie picks or used to be forwards.

Then again, while KPDs don't get taken early in the draft too often, those that are early draft picks are pretty much always guns. Glass, Frawley, NBrown, Reid (noting he was a seen as a forward at the time of drafting), etc.

 

[irel]

Surely we don't want to waste pick 8 on a 3rd tall. Would be a poor decision IMO.

What would you like to waste it on?

 

[Quigley]

What would you like to waste it on?

Brad Miller or Sean Hampson

 

[Gibbo_88]

Based on what I've read I'm hoping we get Stringer. Happy to take the risk. If not Stringer, then Plowman.

If he's available I really hope we take him, he seems to be one of very few players that is universally rated as a top player and because of that I doubt he will make it to our pick. A compound fracture can take up to 4 years for the bone to fully heal and it sounds like he's playing some quality footy already. Must be a dam good player to do that.

 

[Bucking Beads]

What would you like to waste it on?

A quality young midfielder who could be an A grader.