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2012 Draft Discussion

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TheBrownDog said:
Mindgames. ;)

Still want.

Look at his TAC Cup production on return. He's a freak.

Really want us to back him in. I feel that rebuilding during compromised expansion drafts has robbed us of the opportunity to pick up a couple of genuine elite top 3 draft pick types that teams normally get their hands on in a traditional rebuild.

I see Stringer as a chance to rectify that. I am normally very risk averse but I have a good feeling about Stringer.

I am declaring him "my boy" for this draft, joining such luminaries as Sam Docherty (2011) and Dyson Heppell (2010)...







...and Austin Lucy (2005) :oops:
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Presumably you mean with our pick 8 because chances are he won't be there at 23. For me the big decision is not necessarily who we take with pick 8 but who is likely to be there for pick 23. If you could be reasonably confident that a Stringer or Shaw was going to be available at 23 I would take one of the elite midfielders with pick 8, but otherwise my inclination would be go for Shaw/Stringer at 8 and take best available at 23. Although he isn't rated as highly by some, from the little I've seen and heard I think Shaw could be awesome for us post Brown. It's fun speculating though.
 
Ruse said:
Can you post your write-up of lonergan here? He looked pretty impressive in the afl videos.
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Jesse Lonergan
DOB: 14/11/94 Ht: 182 Wt: 91

Every year I put my best Div 2 prospect in the top 10. This year there is really only one real candidate and that Lonergan and when it is all said and done he really deserves to be considered alongside others who are being considered as possible top 10 picks. Put it this way I would take him ahead of Vlastuin who some are talking up at pick 9. Lonergan has a lot going for him and there is still plenty of development potential with him. It is definitely on the cards that he could have been one of the best inside players to come out of this draft.

Lonergan has been playing senior football since he was 15 and has played in the TSL grand finals the last two years. He was also the Tasmanian Rising Star Winner last year as a 16 year old. He played at the Champs last year as a bottom ager and was impressive against the Div 1 teams and had 19 disposals including 6 clearances against WA and ended up being given and AIS place. This year the first half of his year was decimated by a torn lateral meniscus in his knee which required surgery. He eventually returned for Tasmania’s three Div 2 games at the Champs. Not unsurprisingly he was not at full fitness and only averaged 16 possessions a game. His fitness picked up as the season progressed though and by the end of the year he was back to close to his best.

Lonergan has made a name for himself as an inside midfielder and if you want him play you can see why. Personally I would have him behind only Viney as an inside talent this year although Wines would be in the picture. He is a very solid guy already now particularly through the legs and as he develops further he is going to be a very powerful athlete. He has nice variety of moves to win balls in clearance situations. At clearances he hunts the ball and is very aggressive. He will get in there and harass and hustle in tight relying on his powerful frame but equally he can also run off players and pop free where he thinks the ball will go. He finds dangerous space in ruck situations as well as anyone in this draft. He reads the ball of hands very well and also seems to judge how deep the taps will go. It’s not something I tend to notice much but Lonergan seems to have a knack of being the right distance from the ruck when the ball is tapped his way.

He works well in the phone box, makes good quick decisions and then executes. His hands are fast and he is very strong over the ball with a low centre of gravity. Inside he is a fair bit like his uncle Sam but he has an added weapon of being much more agile and much much more explosive off the mark. He shoots gaps very well and has the strength to break arm tackles and the pace to be gone before the opposition can react.

At the moment he does not have a particularly well developed outside game but I think will more focus on that it will come. He has been such a dominant inside ball winner that I tend to think that has been enough and his injury this year has cruelled the opportunity to develop it. He is a smart player with very good pace, reasonable endurance and tidy skills. Build his tank up a bit more and emphasis the spread more and I think you will find a very nice outside game under that hard inside exterior. If you get a chance to watch his highlights have a look at the TSL stuff toward the end and in particular the great work he does on the wing exchanging handballs and then bolting to follow the ball into forward 50 and receive back for the finish and goal. I think that kind of play is going to occur more often as he develops, improves his endurance base and is required to work outside more by his coaches.

Skills wise he is very good by hand and improved by foot. He is an excellent distributor by hand and is a very good exponent of the long handball being able to rip them out with seemingly very little back lift of his right fist. He has worked hard on his kicking the last couple of years and it is paying off. He is solid by foot now and with his rate of improvement you would think he could end up significantly better than that. He is a right footer who is capable of executing on his left although it is evident that it is not his natural foot.

In addition to his midfield work Longergan is also a pretty dangerous forward. Interestingly he tends not to use his pace a great deal up forward instead he uses his strength and body control most often to get him marks and goal scoring attempt. He is a good finisher whether on the run or from his set shot which whilst lacking a bit in fluidity it is pretty effective. He is a good mark above his head, getting nice height and being difficult to move in the air. On the ground as you might imagine, he is clean and shows a good ability to get it out to a teammate for a shot. I don't think he has the goal sense of a true small forward but like Bartel or Martin he can be dangerous and hard to contend with when he rests up forward.

For a not particularly tall, brick outhouse he was a star at the Combine and I am sure a few of the coaches who might not have watched him as much as their recruiters were asking to have a second look at him. He won goal kicking test, was 2nd in the vertical leap, 2nd in the agility test and 7th in the repeat sprint. He was not particularly quick over the first five metres but once he was up to speed he had elite quickness. So not only is this kid an smart, very physical clearance winning machine he is also a superior athlete. His endurance testing was middle of the pack which was basically what I expected. There is a lot of talent to work with with this kid and if the usual Tasmanian discount applies some team is going to get a bargain.
 

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Sounds like a possible pick 33 option Quigley. But remember Brad Harvey was pretty elite at the combine too.
 
True but Harvey wasn't an AIS player either. I had high hopes for Harvey but he was nowhere near the prospect that Lonergan is. Fair chance he could be there at 23/24 for us. If we pass it would be hard to see him getting past St Kilda.
 
WhiteLionFeva said:
Presumably you mean with our pick 8 because chances are he won't be there at 23. For me the big decision is not necessarily who we take with pick 8 but who is likely to be there for pick 23. If you could be reasonably confident that a Stringer or Shaw was going to be available at 23 I would take one of the elite midfielders with pick 8, but otherwise my inclination would be go for Shaw/Stringer at 8 and take best available at 23. Although he isn't rated as highly by some, from the little I've seen and heard I think Shaw could be awesome for us post Brown. It's fun speculating though.
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I'm coming around to this way of thinking. The more I read the more it seems the top 20 are pretty even, so there's a real good chance that an excellent prospect will slip to us at 23, we just don't know what kind of player that is. And best available at #8 might not be all that much better. So perhaps we should consider our needs at pick 8 and look at someone like Jaksch.
 
WhiteLionFeva said:
Sounds like a possible pick 33 option Quigley. But remember Brad Harvey was pretty elite at the combine too.
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Harvey was an athlete first. Lonergan knows how to play. I think he'll be gone by our 3rd pick. Although I think we've got more pressing needs I wouldn't be disappointed if we grabbed him with our 2nd pick.
 
Speculation on Twitter that Freo may not take Shaw until their second pick, which comes after our third. If he slipped to 33, I'd be surprised if we didn't take him without hesitation. I did think the same with Kersten last year though, and we let him slide past our third pick.

And good to see others are joining the Stringer with 8 bandwagon. Just putting out there that I jumped on in August, so if he becomes a star I'll never shutup about it, and if he fails I hope no one remembers this post. I really liked Greene heading into the draft last year and wanted him with 8, and he turned out alright, so I'm hopeful of going two from two.

And despite the talk, I'd personally be very surprised if Menzel was a top 3 pick.
 
From what I've read on different news sites the top 7 will pan out something like this:

1. GWS - Lachie Whitfield
2. GWS - Jimmy Toumpas
3. GWS - Lachie Plowman
4. DEES - Ollie Wines
5. DOGS - John O'Rourke
6. DOGS - Troy Menzel
7. PORT - Brodie Grundy
 
LionKing said:
From what I've read on different news sites the top 7 will pan out something like this:

1. GWS - Lachie Whitfield
2. GWS - Jimmy Toumpas
3. GWS - Lachie Plowman
4. DEES - Ollie Wines
5. DOGS - John O'Rourke
6. DOGS - Troy Menzel
7. PORT - Brodie Grundy
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That would leave us with Stringer, Macrae or Mayes to select from. Hmm decisions, decisions. I would be taking a risk and selecting the one who the recruiters think will become the best player if they fulfil their potential but I think our recruiters will go best available.
 
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Sunny_ said:
Love you write up of Lonergan, Quigley. I know the Suns are right into him at #13. We love our Tassie products and he certainly fills a hole. Between him or Josh Simpson for us at that pick.
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Lonergan seems the antithesis of a Clayton pick. Simpson OTOH...
 
Sunny_ said:
Love you write up of Lonergan, Quigley. I know the Suns are right into him at #13. We love our Tassie products and he certainly fills a hole. Between him or Josh Simpson for us at that pick.
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I hadn't heard about Lonergan for you guys but he makes a lot of sense. The other bloke I think would be on the Suns radar if available would be Stringer.
 
My take at this stage, there appears to be some late movement in the top 10 the closer to draft day. Josh Simpson is firming as a strong possibility at 7 for Port. Plowman firming as GWS bound with pick 3 and Grundy even a possibility of sliding out of the top 10. Stringer if not taken by Geelong may even be available in the 20's. Garlett will be lucky to be drafted in the fifth round if at all. It appears both Brisbane and Richmond will have some tough choices to make with picks 8 and 9.
 
Quigley said:
I hadn't heard about Lonergan for you guys but he makes a lot of sense. The other bloke I think would be on the Suns radar if available would be Stringer.
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Definitely agree with Stringer. Ideal Caddy replacement. But apparently we won't be after him like a number of clubs.

I know Quayle hates us referencing her on BigFooty, but I asked her over Twitter on who she thinks we'll take at #13. With her knowledge of who we've interviewed and stuff.

She believes it's down to Lonergan or Simpson. Plowman if he slides, and Corr an outside chance.

Simpson definitely the typical Clayton pick, and he's a talent. But since we've picked up Martin, hopefully our love for the Tazzie players lets Lonergan win out.
 

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irel said:
My take at this stage, there appears to be some late movement in the top 10 the closer to draft day. Josh Simpson is firming as a strong possibility at 7 for Port. Plowman firming as GWS bound with pick 3 and Grundy even a possibility of sliding out of the top 10. Stringer if not taken by Geelong may even be available in the 20's. Garlett will be lucky to be drafted in the fifth round if at all. It appears both Brisbane and Richmond will have some tough choices to make with picks 8 and 9.
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Surely your kidding about Simpson and Garlett
 
I doubt that any club will take on a bloke with lingering attitude problems. I think clubs are willing to back themselves on most things but if there is a bloke who is uncommitted, misbehaves and is just a goose in general, clubs won't select him unless there are genuine signs of remorse and redemption. It simply costs too much in time and money to look after a wayward player, regardless of talent.

That's not to say that a couple of mistakes as a young bloke will make you undraftable. But you have to show something that gives clubs confidence that you've grown up and are genuinely committed to footy.

I don't know anything about the Garlett situation other than what has been reported. But the red flag is there in terms of commitment and behaviour. If clubs aren't satisfied that he's grown up and has the right attitude, then they will be very unlikely to take the punt on him, regardless of his talent.

Having said that, if he has his proverbial sorted off field, I reckon he's a top 12 prospect.

Could very well be boom or bust on draft day. Top 20 or not at all.
 
rusty08 said:
All this speculation is making the lead up to thursday so much more exciting.Will be like xmas eve wed night.
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Most of us here have committed considerable emotional investment in our club. So Draft Night is a bit like Christmas, if you're christian certainly.
 
Damn you Quigs, I had reconciled with myself that Lonergan would be over paying for number 8 but too good to be there for pick 23. Your profile now makes me want to grab him at 8 so he doesnt get away!
 

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2012 Draft Discussion

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