2012 Draft Discussion

[PattyKwasagun]

The Mason Wood hype is my bandwagon for the day. Spent the past 30 minutes reading up on him and watching videos, and I'm impressed. Comes across as a very mature young man too. Would be very happy with him at 24.

 

[Triple R]

does anyone know if we have anymore nsw scholrship players coming through or nahh? crows have nabbed a bargain with walker and collingwood seem to have unearthed some gems through that program too, wonder if we have anyone else besides newell

We had Newell and James Brain but we didn't draft Brain who is now playing for the Swans Reserves. We have Brendan Beno on the international rookie list but I think this is all we have. He is not draftable for another year I believe.

Collingwood really exploited the scheme well. But really, they have so much more money than us to spend on these types of things, along with coaches, trips for players etc.

 

[Bobby Beecroft]

Always appreciate your input cc, but just cos Carlton are equally as desperate as us for a KPF doesn't make Jaksch good value IMO.

This is the concept that I struggle to comprehend, after all it is only 3 spots - does this equate 'an overreach of 3 spots'? based on Carltons measurements. Do we pick a highly ranked player (by those on BF) that will only deliver what you already have on your list?

What in your opinion makes Jaksch poor value at 8 then?

Clearly if we pick Jaksch is picked at 8, our experts/full time professionals believe he is worth the selection. If BF mentality believes that we have not selected true value I really don't care.

The warning from Kerr has already been put out their - clubs rankings will vary, expect the unexpected (well at least off beat to the majority of BF thoughts/phantom drafts). I look forward to the overreaction, & BF sheep mentality that we 'reached' & receiving say a 'C' by those expects that complete report cards after the draft.

PS. Not a personal fling at you Bob - just the BF mentality around the draft

 

[Viceregal]

This is the concept that I struggle to comprehend, after all it is only 3 spots - does this equate 'an overreach of 3 spots'? based on Carltons measurements. Do we pick a highly ranked player (by those on BF) that will only deliver what you already have on your list?

What in your opinion makes Jaksch poor value at 8 then?

Clearly if we pick Jaksch is picked at 8, our experts/full time professionals believe he is worth the selection. If BF mentality believes that we have not selected true value I really don't care.

The warning from Kerr has already been put out their - clubs rankings will vary, expect the unexpected (well at least off beat to the majority of BF thoughts/phantom drafts). I look forward to the overreaction, & BF sheep mentality that we 'reached' & receiving say a 'C' by those expects that complete report cards after the draft.

PS. Not a personal fling at you Bob - just the BF mentality around the draft

Theoretically if the guy was 'worth' pick 20 on talent and Carlton were looking at taking him at 11 ... us taking him at 8 is not three steps up, it is 12 ... it reminds me of my dad who would drive at 69 in a 60 zone "'cause the police don't care at <10kmh" then would get done for doing 71 and couldn't understand why they were being evil like that, after all he was only doing 2 kmh over!

 

[jackess]

http://www.afl.com.au/Video/tabid/76/contentid/504521/Default.aspx

Cal Twomey has us taking Macrae at 8 and Graham at 24. A few decent KPPs being picked between 8 and 24 has me thinking using pick 8 on Jaksck, Corr or even Grundy might be the way to go. Although surely we'd take Tanner Smith over Graham at 24 if we already have Macrae.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/151313/default.aspx

 

[spotthedog1]

I thought that the AFL.com.au one was a bit odd actually - I would think that, even if Jaksch, O'Brien & Wood were gone by 24 he'd still have a list of other potential KPFs, and who he ranked out of them. I'd find it hard to believe we wouldn't take a KPP with at least one of our picks.

His Brisbane picks were:
8 - Macrae (Mid)
24 - Graham (Mid)
33 - Thurlow (HBF), Siggins (KPD) or Towers (Mid)

Maybe one KPD. Zero KPFs. I would be astonished.

 

[POBT]

I don't reckon I've changed my mind more on a player than I have with Macrae. I'm now back in the "not sure" camp. If we're talking midfielders that are a remote chance of being available at our pick, I've now got him down the order behind Menzel, Mayes, Wines, Stringer and O'Rourke.

 

[chopperduck]

Kinda agree with that jackess. We need some more midfield class, but I think if we use that at 8, we can then go for some KPP at our other picks. We need a mix of smalls and talls, but it might just depend on sliders. Jaksch is still the favourite for us, but I just think there will be a better option available.

 

[POBT]

I thought that the AFL.com.au one was a bit odd actually - I would think that, even if Jaksch, O'Brien & Wood were gone by 24 he'd still have a list of other potential KPFs, and who he ranked out of them. I'd find it hard to believe we wouldn't take a KPP with at least one of our picks.

His Brisbane picks were:
8 - Macrae (Mid)
24 - Graham (Mid)
33 - Thurlow (HBF), Siggins (KPD) or Towers (Mid)

Maybe one KPD. Zero KPFs. I would be astonished.

I agree. I do note that he links us with Tanner Smith who he has St Kilda taking with pick 25. That makes a bit of sense.

I'm somewhat surprised that he didn't link us with Shaw or White at pick 33. There must be zero rumours that we're interested in either. In fact, he doesn't mention White at all, as far as I can see, which is interesting.

Having said that, I wouldn't be surprised if we only took 1 tall if that's the way the draft pans out. But I don't think we'll take 2 midfielders and a tall back flanker.

 

[chopperduck]

Agree with POBT. If we go a mid, surely we need a replacement for Black/Maloney in a few years. An accumulator of the ball and someone who can win the ball and play right in the guts.

 

[whatboutbob]

This is the concept that I struggle to comprehend, after all it is only 3 spots - does this equate 'an overreach of 3 spots'? based on Carltons measurements. Do we pick a highly ranked player (by those on BF) that will only deliver what you already have on your list?

To use a dodgy analogy, would luring Kurt Tippett to our club by offering him 'only' $1.1m per year be good value?


Another club is prepared to pay him $1m/ year, so $1.1m/year isn't over-reaching much, right?

What in your opinion makes Jaksch poor value at 8 then?

IMO we've still got plenty of gaps on our list. Based on draft whispers and my rating of players (from first-hand observation), there's a strong probability that there will be a player available at 8 who fills one of those gaps but has a higher ceiling than Jaksch (albeit in a different role). That's why I think (and hope) the Club will choose that option over Jaksch.

Jaksch has seemed a bit vanilla when I've seen him play. He does a lot of things pretty well, but I think it is unlikely he will be very, very good. Or put another way, I think his ceiling is mid-level. For pick 8 I'd want a high ceiling.

I think there are other key forwards with higher ceilings later on in the draft. They will come with more risk, but that's a risk I'd prefer to take.

The warning from Kerr has already been put out their - clubs rankings will vary, expect the unexpected (well at least off beat to the majority of BF thoughts/phantom drafts). I look forward to the overreaction, & BF sheep mentality that we 'reached' & receiving say a 'C' by those expects that complete report cards after the draft.

Clearly if we pick Jaksch is picked at 8, our experts/full time professionals believe he is worth the selection. If BF mentality believes that we have not selected true value I really don't care.

I absolutely concede that the Lions recruiters may rate Jaksch higher than I do. And I definitely don't think I'm better at judging talent than they are. Thus I'm not going to throw my toys out of the cot if Jaksch is selected. My point is that I think there will be options that offer better value at pick 8, and KPF's with higher ceilings available at later picks. That's the route I am hoping our club takes in a few days.

 

[whatboutbob]

I thought that the AFL.com.au one was a bit odd actually..

FWIW they turfed their draft guru a few weeks ago, so I suspect Twomey's been thrown in the deep end.

 

[whatboutbob]

I agree. I do note that he links us with Tanner Smith who he has St Kilda taking with pick 25. That makes a bit of sense.

I'm somewhat surprised that he didn't link us with Shaw or White at pick 33. There must be zero rumours that we're interested in either. In fact, he doesn't mention White at all, as far as I can see, which is interesting.

I strongly suspect White is this year's Manson. Doesn't stop me from wanting to have a dig at 33 though.

Agree with POBT. If we go a mid, surely we need a replacement for Black/Maloney in a few years. An accumulator of the ball and someone who can win the ball and play right in the guts.

If Lonergan's available at our 2nd pick I'd take him there. I'm also bullish about Conway developing into an inside beast for us.

 

[Old Den]

I absolutely concede that the Lions recruiters may rate Jaksch higher than I do. And I definitely don't think I'm better at judging talent than they are. Thus I'm not going to throw my toys out of the cot if Jaksch is selected. My point is that I think there will be options that offer better value at pick 8, and KPF's with higher ceilings available at later picks. That's the route I am hoping our club takes in a few days.

This is exactly the position that I have come to in the final hours before D Day...If Jaksch (or another tall) is taken at 8,they really rate him...we can expect Hadley to have a good handle on the WA talls that may be available at 24 and this assessment to be a big part of our draft strategy.

 

[spotthedog1]

I agree. I do note that he links us with Tanner Smith who he has St Kilda taking with pick 25. That makes a bit of sense.

I'm somewhat surprised that he didn't link us with Shaw or White at pick 33. There must be zero rumours that we're interested in either. In fact, he doesn't mention White at all, as far as I can see, which is interesting.

Having said that, I wouldn't be surprised if we only took 1 tall if that's the way the draft pans out. But I don't think we'll take 2 midfielders and a tall back flanker.

Agree on Tanner Smith - would be a good fit for us. Also wouldn't be surprised if we only took one tall... I thought we'd take 2 KPPs last year, and we got a ruck, HBF, Mid, and Weardon, who i guess you'd call a utility.

I was also surprised he didn't call on us for Shaw at 33, but I'm with whatboutbob on White - he seems like the kind who's very rough, very speculative, but is being talked up as a ~30 pick purely on x-factor. I would be surprised if he was picked in the first 50 picks. There are a few others though who may be in with a shot at 33 for us - someone like Brant Colledge may sneak in as a speculative pick.

Whatboutbob - I'm with you on White. I'm very much with you on Lonergan. Nice stuff...

Would love a set of picks like Mayes/Stringer, Lonergan/O'Brien and Shaw/Wood. That would be a great draft for us.

 

[POBT]

Agree with POBT. If we go a mid, surely we need a replacement for Black/Maloney in a few years. An accumulator of the ball and someone who can win the ball and play right in the guts.

That's not quite my thinking. I'd be happy with that type but I also think we need game breaking mids/HFF types too, particularly if they have elite kicking. I'd be really happy with Mayes for that reason and would be ecstatic with Menzel if he happened to be available. I was always keen on Garlett for similar reasons.

But, whilst Macrae fits that need, for some reason he just isn't exciting me. Maybe it is the thought that Mayes/Menzel might be on the table. Maybe it is the lack of 1 truly elite quality (although I reckon the total package is pretty good). He's not unworthy of pick 8 - just that others appeal more.

 

[Fatcat08]

I think our drafting this year will give us a fairly good idea as to how we rate our academy prospects that will come through next year.

I'm in the bandwagon of changing my mind on Macrae. I like the writeups I see but when I watch the highlights there's something I can't put my finger on that just isn't quite exciting me, although it is a small sample. Thinking about it maybe its the actual pick that's making it a bit harder for me. 8 just seems to be a bit in no-mans land. Not quite high enough to get the really top shelf talent but its a bit high to be drafting on needs over best available. Had it been 6 then I think I would be more bullish on at least one of the options available. Of course at 8 you're still banking on getting some really really good talent but I guess its just sitting that bit in the middle for me personally (it probably shouldn't).

Talent wise I quite like Mayes on talent alone but he probably doesn't fill the most pressing need on our list. However I would be pretty happy if we got him as I think he's certainly an upgrade on our HFF options we have currently (although I'm more bullish on them at the end of this year than last with the improvement of Bewick).

I'm actually intrigued by the prospect of Grundy, not as a ruckman but whether he could become a permanent forward or not. Would be interested to hear any thoughts on the traits that would make him successful in this role when compared with Daniher. Wondering how his speed, agility, hands etc match up when comparing the two. Will be an interesting call if he is available at 8.

For the later picks it really does seem like no-one has any idea who any teams will take, just seems so open this year and not a lot of info on who's interested in who outside of the top few. Going to be a few surpises come draft day I think

 

[POBT]

Jaksch has seemed a bit vanilla when I've seen him play. He does a lot of things pretty well, but I think it is unlikely he will be very, very good. Or put another way, I think his ceiling is mid-level. For pick 8 I'd want a high ceiling.

This is my view on Jaksch too. I've got him at about #15 in my estimations (for what they are worth). Drafting is a comparative exercise and I reckon there's about a dozen players that I'd prefer over him. Hence, #8 is a bit too high even though he meets a need.

Not going to burn the club down if they take him though. The difference between pick #8 and #15 isn't so great to make it a complete head scratcher if we do take him.

 

[Cousin Jed]

FWIW they turfed their draft guru a few weeks ago, so I suspect Twomey's been thrown in the deep end.

They had a draft guru since Burgan?

 

[Hollow Knight]

They had a draft guru since Burgan?

They had Daffey but no one took his analysis seriously. His subsequent track record vindicated why.

 

[Haso]

 

[The Flying Belgian]

This is my view on Jaksch too. I've got him at about #15 in my estimations (for what they are worth). Drafting is a comparative exercise and I reckon there's about a dozen players that I'd prefer over him. Hence, #8 is a bit too high even though he meets a need.

Not going to burn the club down if they take him though. The difference between pick #8 and #15 isn't so great to make it a complete head scratcher if we do take him.

Was feeling the same, then re-watched some of his footage on youtube and got a little more excited. Opposite to you, I haven't been excited by the prospect of Mayes, but am getting there now. I think I'm at the stage where I'll be legitimately happy with anyone we pick. Possibly less so on Grundy, although I understand and appreciate his quality.

 

[Voss the boss]

Macrae just didn't do it for me from those highlights - i am hearing you FatCat, Mayes does look classy. Looking at the videos, i don't mind Grundy and if it could work i don't think i would be against going him at 8 if the club thinks they could get him to play forward as well.

 

[POBT]

Be interesting if we take Macrae or Jaksch. Vic Metro lads.

 

[jackess]

Cal Twomey referring to Sam Mayes

In the mix: Brisbane Lions. They really like Mayes and have done a lot of work on him

If Port ruin this I won't be happy.