tigs2010
wowing tiger_muff all day every day
Jackson MacRae would be pushing top 10 selection and I think he could be gone by our pick. Is starting to tear games apart.
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2012 draft
- Thread starter Tomnat Tigers
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- Dec 10, 2011
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Looks like the top 15 at least will have very good players to choose from, if not the top 20. Wondering if we will try and upgrade our 2nd round picks as it seems to drop off a little by 29/30?
Trade them both out, for one late first/early second. Hmm ... I like.
- Mar 1, 2010
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whats seems obvious to me is the better players seem to be rising up the order. The potential gems seem to be separated from straw based non the revise lists over time
So top 10 pick is significantly better than 11-20 which a better than 21-30 again etc...
This is all academic anyway because all depends on how the recruiters rate the players. For example if the recruitment dept thinks Vlastuin is the second coming and will pick him Conca style you would downgrade the pick to 13 as some suggested based on the phantoms and other opinion evidence. However, if recruiting want another player more like to be top 10 you would not to do downgrade if you rated him superior and a big enhancement to the team if selected because a downgrade means you are likely not to get him with similar value options falling away you in effect are potentially accepting 2 inferior for one superior
So top 10 pick is significantly better than 11-20 which a better than 21-30 again etc...
This is all academic anyway because all depends on how the recruiters rate the players. For example if the recruitment dept thinks Vlastuin is the second coming and will pick him Conca style you would downgrade the pick to 13 as some suggested based on the phantoms and other opinion evidence. However, if recruiting want another player more like to be top 10 you would not to do downgrade if you rated him superior and a big enhancement to the team if selected because a downgrade means you are likely not to get him with similar value options falling away you in effect are potentially accepting 2 inferior for one superior
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If it all depends on how recruiters rate the players, I'd suggest you wouldn't be looking for a pick downgrade because of what a few BF Phantom drafters think.
If our recruiting guys think Vlastuin is the second coming, then wouldn't it seem strange to you if not a single other club thought similar? And if they did, there is the chance he could get snapped up before us by another club who isn't simply referring to BF mock drafts to determine who should go where.
Can't see the club taking that punt.
- Mar 1, 2010
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Disagree, you only have to look at the Conca example. The phantom experts, although probably non-professional are not complete idiots, the take a lot of pride in their opinion and reputation regarding accuracy I am sure even if they are amateurs
A guy I like is Andrew Boston from Queensland.
- Mar 1, 2010
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Does anyone know where you can get video vision of most of the potential draftees of 2012 online???
Apart from a few I can't get any and know nothing, it is quiet ridiculous really
Apart from a few I can't get any and know nothing, it is quiet ridiculous really
- Oct 18, 2008
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about a month before draft day expect the AFL website to put vids up
Jackson Thurlow, anyone know much about him?
Not saying they are (idiots). I'm just saying, that it can be both difficult, and dangerous to second guess what clubs will be thinking about certain players. There are always bolters, and sliders, and while many of the mock drafters are well informed, and get things pretty close (particularly early), there are always discrepencies. Last year we took Ellis earlier than expected, but who's to say the club with the pick immediately after ours wasn't also keen on him, despite the phantom experts' predictions.
I can only see the club entertaining this type of pick downgrade trade if they have options B & C that they would be satisfied with if option A got unexpectedly snapped up before our selection.
Did we? I thought we took him around the mark. Apparently Freo were going to take him with pick 16 if we didn't.
We pretty much took him exactly where everyone thought he'd go. Only Kavanagh from memory was tipped to go before him but because of his father making a fuss about wanting to go to Essendon everyone knew he'd slide to them.
Yes and no. Knightmare had him going to the Roos at pick 18 (and Toby Greene @ 16). Around the mark, yes, but we're talking about trading down 3 our 4 places here. Note, a quick google search found another phantom draft which had Ellis @ 36, and Elton @ 9.
Anyway, I think we're going off topic with the semantics, so I'll give it a rest now
- Mar 1, 2010
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It is not really about second guessing clubs because , lets face it , no one knows what they are doing and if we did apart from the top pick they would be negligent in their duty because the competition could use it to their advantage.
It is more about maximising the acquistion of perceived value in the draft crop and part of that perception is the phantoms if only very slight. But because attitudes are hidden it is a handy , open, if not possibly independent source
The point is I am not getting high and mighty about a phantom draft, it is more a wholistic approach regarding the collective, the detail they put on each player etc... It is information analysers can use for their benefit. Some is probably copied , others misleading but the trick is if you can weed out the BS it can be useful as a loose benchmark.
The thing is because the concentration at the club level is higher at the club level the potential for greater discrepancy from the mean is higher as is the benefit/risk factor.
Ellis was a safe option last year and I pretty much expected it given Kavangh's father foolishly determined to go to the Bombers. Nothing wrong with Ellis as he has demonstrated on the field , others players I were looking at were taken before him
At the time I was hoping we would chase the Adelaide ruckman in the mini draft which would have been a longshot grant you but in hindsight it might have been a steal
This thread has taken a turn.
Sorry!
We'll be picking the best player available with our first round, not picking according to needs. So it could be Mayes, Grundy, Wines, Vlastuin Garlett, anyone really.
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Yeah no worries.
He is a Queensland Representative, who plays predominately in the midfield but can go forward and look good. Was the only Queenslander from memory in the All Australian team.
Hard working midfielder with neat skills probably will sum him up. Has great aerobic capacity which I think at the next level once developed will be a very hard running midfielder. He is about 6 foot tall so a small/medium midfielder. His two intangibles that I love about him is his character and in that his leadership potential. A footballer. Knows where to run to get involved.
Probably not a name most would know, but I wouldn't complain if the club take him with our second or third pick in the second round. Probably won't be in many mock drafts that high up, but to me, I can see him being a good player who will add to our midfield department.
I personally think if he played for Vic Metro or a team like that we would be talking about him as a top 20 pick.
Andrew Boston
Kevin Sheehan says: “Medium midfielder who excelled in the NAB AFL Under-18 Championships for QLD, averaging 18.2 disposals at 70% and winning All Australian honours. Clean hands and neat disposal skills are features of his game.”
Fair set!
Kid can play. What was encouraging was his performances against the better kids in division one. Certainly held his own......
I've got more than a feeling he'll slip past the first 20.
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