2012 Emirates Melbourne Cup thread and Formtalk (Merged)

[sethlad]

Well its less than 100 days til the Great Race so its time to get this thread going again.
For those who have been involved over the last few years,please keep posting any info
you have especially on our local hopes.

As you probably know,Im more interested in the overseas visitors & hope to have as much success at keeping the PB regulars up to date with the raiders as weve had over the last few years.

Even though nominations arent out yet theres been markets available for a while with more than 75K traded in the Betfair antepost market already.

First off it seems Dunaden is unlikely to return but Americain is due back for another crack.

The 2 mile Goodwood Cup tomorrow night contains Godolphin's Ascot Gold Cup winner Colour Vision & Lost in the Moment (6th in 2011) along with Sadlers Rock & dual Ascot winner Simenon.

Then in late August is the Ebor which has provided Purple Moon in recent years

seth

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

I can't wait for this race.

Will be great to see Americain targetted at a proper staying race, I think his programming here was terrible with Hayes.

 

[sethlad]

Interesting to see what weight he gets........

The change in the race is massive weight wise,for years trainers did anything to avoid a penalty.
Now with the depth,horses need a penalty with around 52.5kg the likely cut off in 2012

seth

 

[KardiniaPark]

Adroitly! *Rain Dance

 

[Matty_G]

Have had a couple of long range nibbles on:
Zabeelionaire - Has always had the potential, recently looks to be putting it all together, have confidence in the breeding
Norsqui - Probably lacks the class to win a Melbourne Cup, but you know he'll run the distance. Correct me if I'm wrong but I believe he's already passed the 1st ballot with an Adelaide Cup placing

Besides that I like
Lucas Cranach - deserved favourite
Lost in the Moment - had huge raps on him last year personally (haven't really followed him since though)
Ethiopia - Similar to Zabeelionaire, think big things are in store

 

[sethlad]

If the guy who owns Zabeelionaire is still posting here,perhaps he can give us an update?
Personally Im not a fan of that 3yo derby form but good luck with your early bet

Lost In The Moment runs in the Goodwood Cup tonight
Ethiopia's trainer has all but ruled him out of this years race already but Im sure he'll be
in the noms in case he changes his mind

seth

 

[sethlad]

Goodwood Cup goes to Saddler's Rock who turns the tables on Colour Vision from the Gold Cup.
Winner is lightly raced but unlikely to be here.
Lost In The Moment ran on ok from last but was well below his 2nd placing in this race in 2011.
Simenon loomed to challenge but struggled late so cant see him coming either.

seth

 

[sethlad]

OTI have Quest For Peace & new purchase Gatewood in R1 tonight at Goodwood @ 10.30pm
They had big plans for QFP including the Arc but his last few have been disappointing while Gatewood is progressive but would need to win a decent race before getting here to get past the qualifying.
I believe Gatewood is going to Waller while QFP will be here with Luca Cumani

seth

 

[sethlad]

Easy all the way win for Quest For Peace after a brilliant Fallan ride,Gatewood 3rd & had his chance.
QFP is a tough one,looked a worldbeater spanking Lost In The Moment before he came here & ran 6th in 2011
but his form since has been patchy. After this he's a proper stayer & will easily make the MC field.
Expect him to be right in the market now

seth

 

[Saggynuts]

Seth,any chance that you could give a summary on the stayers from over the water that are here now. I have no idea to be honest and I like the early doubles.

 

[sethlad]

Theres quite a few,OTI have 4 or 5 including last nights 2 & Lloyd has his usual 6-10.
Plus a lot that are only rumours at this stage & the the horses which stayed from 2011.

Will wait til nominations which is in a few weeks unless you have a specific horse in mind?

Hearing the Japanese are unlikely due to quarantine & travel costs.

seth

 

[Saggynuts]

Theres quite a few,OTI have 4 or 5 including last nights 2 & Lloyd has his usual 6-10.
Plus a lot that are only rumours at this stage & the the horses which stayed from 2011.

Will wait til nominations which is in a few weeks unless you have a specific horse in mind?

Hearing the Japanese are unlikely due to quarantine & travel costs.

seth

Was interested in Gai's and Wallers mainly,what you think is the best of them?

 

[plays tall 1]

I'll wait till the Sportsman put out their Cups edition before commenting on internationals but the locals that stand out to me so far are Lights of Heaven (although better at the $100 originally offered) and Manighar at $75 for the Melb Cup and Western Symbol at $75 for the Caulfield.

Should at least get the chance to back and lay these as the Cups approach.

 

[sethlad]

DK Weld has been a tad quiet in the last few years but as a dual winner it was interesting to hear his quote after his mare Sapphire won at Cork last night

"That is a nice double. She is the first mare to win both the Noblesse Stakes and the Give Thanks Stakes," said Weld."She was very impressive and very good. She is a lovely big staying mare and there is lots to look forward to with her.
"The Irish St Leger is next up and we will take it from there. She is a stayer with speed and she is a very adaptable mare. She is a big galloping mare and I think she will get the trip at her ease.
"She is only getting going now and she will be kept in training next year."She will be entered in the Melbourne Cup, I'm not saying she will run in it but she will be entered."


seth

 

[sethlad]

So we have some MC possibilities with Caulfield Cup noms taken today.
Lots of internationals in the 222 noms however no Japanese & no Godolphin runners

http://www.racenet.com.au/breeding/pdfs/CaulfieldCupnominations2012.pdf

seth

 

[Whowants2know]

A bit strange that there is no Godolphin runners for Caulfield cup, have actually run better in this race than the Melbourne cup. still living of the 2008 winner... All the Good

 

[Look2Me4Guidance]

I think Moyenne Corniche could be worth a look after last year's run.

 

[sethlad]

Another winner in Ireland for Weld last night,Galileo's Choice

Weld said of Galileo's Choice: "That was a very good renewal-a proper horse race. Galileo's Choice has proved himself very versatile in terms of distance and will probably go back up to 1m 6f in the Irish St Leger next month. He'll be entered for the Melbourne Cup and we'll see how things go."

seth

 

[quiksilva]

This thread gave us Dunaden last year - looking forward to hopefully another special.
Bring on the spring!

 

[sethlad]

Tab market has 4 equal faves @ $21 so lets start to look at a few up the top.

AMERICAIN 21.00
IBICENCO 21.00
DUNADEN 21.00
RED CADEAUX 21.00

We know 3 of them well while Ibicenco is a German bred bought by OTI & transfered to Cumani.
He's lightly raced,has been placed in a German Gp 1 & since going to Cumani has showed good improvement including a placing behind one of Godolphins best stayers Opinion Poll over 2 miles.
For me he lacks the acceleration needed although he is very strong, even at the $50 Betfair he's a pass for me.

seth

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

I believe Dunaden's owners are due to announce this week if he's making the trip. Apparently the Arc is more likely.

 

[Look2Me4Guidance]

I believe Dunaden's owners are due to announce this week if he's making the trip. Apparently the Arc is more likely.

Yeah. I'd take Red Cadeaux of those 4 Seth mentioned at this stage.

 

[KardiniaPark]

I don't think $21 about anyone right now is good shopping.

 

[sethlad]

Agree that $21 is poison this far out,most would be $51 just to get to the race.

Another Aus owned import Jakkalberry is running in the US Saturday.
Well travelled horse who has been to HK the last 2 years & most recently ran 5th
in the Hardwicke to Sea Moon with Dunaden 2nd & R Cadeux 3rd.
Currently $35 Tab & @ $50 betfair

seth

 

[Look2Me4Guidance]

I don't think $21 about anyone right now is good shopping.

I think Red Cadeaux is reasonable. Racing well and proven over the trip. I'm not one for early markets but that's pretty decent value, especially if Dunaden doesn't make the trip.