rideclutch
Norm Smith Medallist
I like it KP, I'll be with you here
Edit: Also, top job as always sethlad. Appreciated your constant updates in the other Melbourne Cup thread, well done.
2012 Emirates Melbourne Cup thread and Formtalk (Merged)
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Edit: Also, top job as always sethlad. Appreciated your constant updates in the other Melbourne Cup thread, well done.
Couldn't make the form talk due to cup eve BBQ but for what it's worth my thoughts are:
Red Cadeaux
Galileo's Choice
Dunaden
Americain
Mount Athos
Cavalryman
...in order ;-)
Thanks Seth for your great work with all the Melbourne Cup chat. Had a different view on Brigantin but all academic anyway with him not getting a run. I hope your trading worked out well.
Red Cadeaux
Galileo's Choice
Dunaden
Americain
Mount Athos
Cavalryman
...in order ;-)
Thanks Seth for your great work with all the Melbourne Cup chat. Had a different view on Brigantin but all academic anyway with him not getting a run. I hope your trading worked out well.
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Ive baically now put it down to 5 with no confidence. Mourayan, RC, Dunaden, Americain and Lights of Heaven.
Ruled out MQFP, GC, Fiorente
basically because 0/61 have won from not running in the leadup in Autralia never happened. I also question what GC ha actually beaten. I still do it with no confidence because Fiorente beat RC convinvily and is meant to be better prepared than its 0.1 length worse of weight loss to Dunaden. Ill probably till nibble if hes at these odds before the race. Ive ruled MQFP out purely because it didnt find the line that well in the CC anywhere near as well as LOH, Americain, Dunaden ect but still a chance because LOH now has a s**t barrier, Dunaden runs heavier. Cant see it finishing ahead of Americain no matter. Will probably run top 8 cert.
Ive watched the CauC run about 8 times and i believe the winner is in that field. Dunaden had a s**t barrier came from no where and ran past alcopop like it was standing still. Not the easiest of runs, it will have to come from far less back with its barrier this time. I really really like LOH more and more every time i watch it actually held onto Dunaden and found the line just about aswell as any, the extra distance looks like it will help.
I still think Mouryan is going under radar. In great form, has gone the distance. Late scratching last year. form is great in last few races and ran around ome good form horses
Ruled out MQFP, GC, Fiorente
basically because 0/61 have won from not running in the leadup in Autralia never happened. I also question what GC ha actually beaten. I still do it with no confidence because Fiorente beat RC convinvily and is meant to be better prepared than its 0.1 length worse of weight loss to Dunaden. Ill probably till nibble if hes at these odds before the race. Ive ruled MQFP out purely because it didnt find the line that well in the CC anywhere near as well as LOH, Americain, Dunaden ect but still a chance because LOH now has a s**t barrier, Dunaden runs heavier. Cant see it finishing ahead of Americain no matter. Will probably run top 8 cert.
Ive watched the CauC run about 8 times and i believe the winner is in that field. Dunaden had a s**t barrier came from no where and ran past alcopop like it was standing still. Not the easiest of runs, it will have to come from far less back with its barrier this time. I really really like LOH more and more every time i watch it actually held onto Dunaden and found the line just about aswell as any, the extra distance looks like it will help.
I still think Mouryan is going under radar. In great form, has gone the distance. Late scratching last year. form is great in last few races and ran around ome good form horses
Dingster
Hall of Famer
Like: Mount Athos, Galileos Choice, Red Cadeaux, Maluckyday, My Quest For Peace
Best: Mount Athos. Winning on good tracks with the right barrier and weight.
Interesting Runner: Ethiopia. Definitely including in my trifecta
Good job Seth with all your lead up information.
Best: Mount Athos. Winning on good tracks with the right barrier and weight.
Interesting Runner: Ethiopia. Definitely including in my trifecta
Good job Seth with all your lead up information.
Galileo's Choice will be there abouts, as to will Maluckyday. I am doubting Dunaden and Americain to win with the weight they have, could be wrong. Green Moon for a place. Americain to run in fourth or fifth. Unusual Supect to finish last.
My Trifecta
Galileo's Choice
Maluckyday
Green Moon
My Trifecta
Galileo's Choice
Maluckyday
Green Moon
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I like:
Americain: Hes the one to beat for me
Red Cadeaux: Has shown he can handle the race, will get distance, nicely weighted. Godd form lines against Dunaden, its last run clearly coming to end of prep trainer has shown before to freshen before after poor performance and come back for 3200 and run well.
Lights of Heaven: If you watch the CauC it looks a stayer even though im sort of agreeing befroe that "i dont see LOH as a stayer". It stayed much better than MQFP in that race. Will need to sit in a 5-8th spot to be a chance to win, can it do that from barrier 17?
Mourayan: A strange prep? I dont think so look at its prep before it didnt run in last years cup. Runs a 2000 (3 week break), 2500 (3.5 week break), 2000 (and couldnt get up for the cup a few days later which isnt really a suprise). This time 1600 (2 week break not as long needed after 1600), 2000 (2 week break), 2000 (4 week break to cup) beat LOH and Dare to Dream in last 2 who both ince than have gone onto perform really well and Mourayan had 59kg on back. It now drops down big. Has ran distance, no doubt the rain would help this horse 12/16 from dead/slow track. Has been improving every run, last year it clearly didnt target the cup it targetted the mackinnon, bart cummings (scratched from metrop as had better chance in BC), and King town. Ran top 3 for all of them. The question is whether it can get distance seems to be sliding under radar for me as this year it seems to be have aimed at the cup.
MQFP
Dont think it stayed aswell as LOH but still tayed on well. The only reason i give it a chance is because i think from the caufield cup. Dunaden adds another kg over 800 more metres. Americain might be reaching at straws but hoofs and extra 800 (although has shown can get the distance so not really). LOH has a s**t barrier draw in comparison. So could be the next best.
Potting
Dunaden: Dont think it can beat Americain from fair to fair runs. Having said that can run 2nd and will be in my calculations/chances. Too much weight.
MT athos, Galileos choice, Calvary Man, Fiorente: Not enough rain, they wouldnt know what its like running against 24 horses, different races to what they race, havnt beat anything that special apart from fiorente, havnt had a prep in australia which is 0/61 happy to take that history and pott.
Maluckyday/Kelinni: Gatewood most overhyped horse ive seen won the GC againt bugger all IMO in a race handed to it with such a slow speed. It was basically an overseas run race with 6-7 horses and didnt urprise to see it win that. Has since struggled and even before that was beaten by MQFP. So jut dont rate the Kellinis, Maluckydays that have raced it as highly.
Top 6
Americain
Dunaden
Lights of Heaven
Mourayan
Red Cadeaux
MQFP (rings of a 5th or 6th finish for some reason)
I keep finding it hard to have anything to say against Americain, wish i got on at 12s. 5-6 is too short might quinella.
Bet: Americain, Dunaden, LOH, RC (quinellas)
Americain: Hes the one to beat for me
Red Cadeaux: Has shown he can handle the race, will get distance, nicely weighted. Godd form lines against Dunaden, its last run clearly coming to end of prep trainer has shown before to freshen before after poor performance and come back for 3200 and run well.
Lights of Heaven: If you watch the CauC it looks a stayer even though im sort of agreeing befroe that "i dont see LOH as a stayer". It stayed much better than MQFP in that race. Will need to sit in a 5-8th spot to be a chance to win, can it do that from barrier 17?
Mourayan: A strange prep? I dont think so look at its prep before it didnt run in last years cup. Runs a 2000 (3 week break), 2500 (3.5 week break), 2000 (and couldnt get up for the cup a few days later which isnt really a suprise). This time 1600 (2 week break not as long needed after 1600), 2000 (2 week break), 2000 (4 week break to cup) beat LOH and Dare to Dream in last 2 who both ince than have gone onto perform really well and Mourayan had 59kg on back. It now drops down big. Has ran distance, no doubt the rain would help this horse 12/16 from dead/slow track. Has been improving every run, last year it clearly didnt target the cup it targetted the mackinnon, bart cummings (scratched from metrop as had better chance in BC), and King town. Ran top 3 for all of them. The question is whether it can get distance seems to be sliding under radar for me as this year it seems to be have aimed at the cup.
MQFP
Dont think it stayed aswell as LOH but still tayed on well. The only reason i give it a chance is because i think from the caufield cup. Dunaden adds another kg over 800 more metres. Americain might be reaching at straws but hoofs and extra 800 (although has shown can get the distance so not really). LOH has a s**t barrier draw in comparison. So could be the next best.
Potting
Dunaden: Dont think it can beat Americain from fair to fair runs. Having said that can run 2nd and will be in my calculations/chances. Too much weight.
MT athos, Galileos choice, Calvary Man, Fiorente: Not enough rain, they wouldnt know what its like running against 24 horses, different races to what they race, havnt beat anything that special apart from fiorente, havnt had a prep in australia which is 0/61 happy to take that history and pott.
Maluckyday/Kelinni: Gatewood most overhyped horse ive seen won the GC againt bugger all IMO in a race handed to it with such a slow speed. It was basically an overseas run race with 6-7 horses and didnt urprise to see it win that. Has since struggled and even before that was beaten by MQFP. So jut dont rate the Kellinis, Maluckydays that have raced it as highly.
Top 6
Americain
Dunaden
Lights of Heaven
Mourayan
Red Cadeaux
MQFP (rings of a 5th or 6th finish for some reason)
I keep finding it hard to have anything to say against Americain, wish i got on at 12s. 5-6 is too short might quinella.
Bet: Americain, Dunaden, LOH, RC (quinellas)
stmookeyj
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Dunaden wins if it can handle the 59, going wide in quaddie legs.
CUP DAY TIPS
RACE 1: FFS why start with a 2YO race with 13 first starters? Bring back the Cup Day Hurdle! Plus it's 9:20AM in Qld.....
RACE 2: 6-7-2-8
RACE 3: 11-5-15-6
RACE 4: 6-4-15-11
RACE 5: 8-5.....then it's anyone's guess.
RACE 6: 7-3-12-8, the 6 is the knockout horse now that the toppie is scratched
CUP: 1-17-20-8
RACE 8: 2-13-1-5
RACE 9: 21-4-23-14 (With 16, 19 and 22 already out, The 21 and 23 will get runs)
RACE 10: 7-2-9-5
CUP DAY QUADDIE (Cup first leg, being race 7): 1-8-15-17-20-23-24/1-2-5-13/4-5-12-14-21-23/2-5-7-9.
CUP DAY TIPS
RACE 1: FFS why start with a 2YO race with 13 first starters? Bring back the Cup Day Hurdle! Plus it's 9:20AM in Qld.....
RACE 2: 6-7-2-8
RACE 3: 11-5-15-6
RACE 4: 6-4-15-11
RACE 5: 8-5.....then it's anyone's guess.
RACE 6: 7-3-12-8, the 6 is the knockout horse now that the toppie is scratched
CUP: 1-17-20-8
RACE 8: 2-13-1-5
RACE 9: 21-4-23-14 (With 16, 19 and 22 already out, The 21 and 23 will get runs)
RACE 10: 7-2-9-5
CUP DAY QUADDIE (Cup first leg, being race 7): 1-8-15-17-20-23-24/1-2-5-13/4-5-12-14-21-23/2-5-7-9.
Dunaden - 1kg penalty for CC win isn't harsh IMO when you consider Northerly got 2kg for winning by a half neck, Let's Elope got 2.5 and won by a length. He'll get back and under the big weight it all needs to go right for him when he unwinds, but if he gets a clear run he can prove himself the best Cup winner in my lifetime. The other query is whether he has another run as good as the CC in him.
Americain - is he better rising 8 than when he was 7 or 6? He'll need to be. One of the chances but significant unders for mine.
Jakkalberry - seems too close in the weights to the top couple (and Voila Ici) to race forward while lumping 55.5
Red Cadeaux - goes against all my instincts to consider a horse which hasn't raced for nearly four months. Will be an immortal training performance if this gets up. I have concerns about it getting trapped wide. A chance, but again, unders in my book.
Winchester - never been beyond a mile and a half. Breeding and racing style suggests he'll grind out the distance, but too slow to figure. Rough place only.
Voila Ici - aged horse with good on-paper form until the CC flop put a dampener on prospects. Would need to rain in order to be re-considered. A lot.
Cavalryman - tends to mix his form somewhat alarmingly. Low key buildup and been going around in modest races of late, but his best form says he's a serious G1 horse. My sixth sense is telling me to have something on it.
Mount Athos - strength of form must overrule all else, so I generally underrate these types and can't bring myself to back them. Has obviously been earmarked for this some time ago and has to be kept safe. This year's Red Cadeaux?
Sanagas - would like to have seen some semblance of form. Can't enthuse, even with the Cummings connection.
Ethiopia - reluctantly potting this. Like the horse, but it's had just the seven runs and covered only 5.6km in lead-ups. Jockey will go forward, but came from last in his only success in the Derby. Will have to be every bit as good as connections think to win.
Fiorente - not raced for seven weeks. Can Gai get this up on an English-style preparation, without the benefit of the facilities at the invaders' disposal? Punting is comprised of decisions and mine is to leave him out.
Galileo's Choice - Vintage Crop reprised? Sometimes-hurdler whose form in weak-ish races is hard to line up. Respect the canny Irishman and keep safe.
Glencadam Gold - was shaping as a world-beater before CC disaster. You either cross him out or forgive him that run. I'm not that forgiving.
Green Moon - would be all over him if I thought he was likely to stay two miles. As it is he's more unlikely than likely. A shame at the weights.
Maluckyday - ignore Geelong run when they outsprinted him and his form looks sound. Is he back to his best? Is he a run short? I want to like him more than I do. Has the Zabeel appeal.
Mourayan - bit of a non-winner and nobody really gives him a hope, but his form is very good. Does he run two miles? One that appeals for the multiples at a bit of odds.
My Quest For Peace - had the run of the race at Caulfield and should get it again here. Couldn't sprint as quickly as some but still found the line OK. Not a bad MC trial IMO. Form is better than Mount Athos' and makes more appeal than that runner.
Niwot - admirable old warhorse but the eight years have taken their toll. Unless he can lift several lengths to his autumn form, no.
Tac De Boistron - He'll at least get the trip, and you shouldn't be put off if you fancied him at Geelong. Potential value.
Lights Of Heaven - though she's a Zabeel, I query her getting the two miles. Has form through the right races and has the toe to take up a position early. One of the better chances if she stays.
Precedence - Bart/Zabeel combo but best appears to be behind him. Not for me.
Unusual Suspect - grinds away but like Niwot has dropped a cog, and 9yo's don't win the Cup.
Zabeelionaire - will be snagged back from the outside gate which is no real inconvenience. Could battle into a place at odds.
Kelinni - been up for a while. Metrop form suspect, but will race forward with a light weight. Place at odds, perhaps.
Americain - is he better rising 8 than when he was 7 or 6? He'll need to be. One of the chances but significant unders for mine.
Jakkalberry - seems too close in the weights to the top couple (and Voila Ici) to race forward while lumping 55.5
Red Cadeaux - goes against all my instincts to consider a horse which hasn't raced for nearly four months. Will be an immortal training performance if this gets up. I have concerns about it getting trapped wide. A chance, but again, unders in my book.
Winchester - never been beyond a mile and a half. Breeding and racing style suggests he'll grind out the distance, but too slow to figure. Rough place only.
Voila Ici - aged horse with good on-paper form until the CC flop put a dampener on prospects. Would need to rain in order to be re-considered. A lot.
Cavalryman - tends to mix his form somewhat alarmingly. Low key buildup and been going around in modest races of late, but his best form says he's a serious G1 horse. My sixth sense is telling me to have something on it.
Mount Athos - strength of form must overrule all else, so I generally underrate these types and can't bring myself to back them. Has obviously been earmarked for this some time ago and has to be kept safe. This year's Red Cadeaux?
Sanagas - would like to have seen some semblance of form. Can't enthuse, even with the Cummings connection.
Ethiopia - reluctantly potting this. Like the horse, but it's had just the seven runs and covered only 5.6km in lead-ups. Jockey will go forward, but came from last in his only success in the Derby. Will have to be every bit as good as connections think to win.
Fiorente - not raced for seven weeks. Can Gai get this up on an English-style preparation, without the benefit of the facilities at the invaders' disposal? Punting is comprised of decisions and mine is to leave him out.
Galileo's Choice - Vintage Crop reprised? Sometimes-hurdler whose form in weak-ish races is hard to line up. Respect the canny Irishman and keep safe.
Glencadam Gold - was shaping as a world-beater before CC disaster. You either cross him out or forgive him that run. I'm not that forgiving.
Green Moon - would be all over him if I thought he was likely to stay two miles. As it is he's more unlikely than likely. A shame at the weights.
Maluckyday - ignore Geelong run when they outsprinted him and his form looks sound. Is he back to his best? Is he a run short? I want to like him more than I do. Has the Zabeel appeal.
Mourayan - bit of a non-winner and nobody really gives him a hope, but his form is very good. Does he run two miles? One that appeals for the multiples at a bit of odds.
My Quest For Peace - had the run of the race at Caulfield and should get it again here. Couldn't sprint as quickly as some but still found the line OK. Not a bad MC trial IMO. Form is better than Mount Athos' and makes more appeal than that runner.
Niwot - admirable old warhorse but the eight years have taken their toll. Unless he can lift several lengths to his autumn form, no.
Tac De Boistron - He'll at least get the trip, and you shouldn't be put off if you fancied him at Geelong. Potential value.
Lights Of Heaven - though she's a Zabeel, I query her getting the two miles. Has form through the right races and has the toe to take up a position early. One of the better chances if she stays.
Precedence - Bart/Zabeel combo but best appears to be behind him. Not for me.
Unusual Suspect - grinds away but like Niwot has dropped a cog, and 9yo's don't win the Cup.
Zabeelionaire - will be snagged back from the outside gate which is no real inconvenience. Could battle into a place at odds.
Kelinni - been up for a while. Metrop form suspect, but will race forward with a light weight. Place at odds, perhaps.
I am liking Ethiopia. Not sure it can win, but i expect it to finish around the mark.
Have taken it at $1.75 to finish top 10, and $2.30 to beat home Kelinni and Cavalryman
Have taken it at $1.75 to finish top 10, and $2.30 to beat home Kelinni and Cavalryman
That's what I'd prefer to see if backing him but McLeod says he'll be "a little better than midfield". I lack absolute faith in him obtaining the best running.
Basically starting with the theory that Americain's was clearly the best Melb Cup run in the Caulf Cup and I can't see anything else that ran in that race winning. So lines through 1,3,5,6,9,13,17,18,20,23.
Then the 0/61 stat is good enough for me... lines through 7,8,11,12
Also, lines through 21,22 because they couldnt even place in the Moonee Valley Cup.
So in racebook order ive got the chances as:
2. Americian: top pick, based mainly on the last two races Dunaden won here
4. Red Cadeaux: third pick, love the weight swing with Dunaden and is "travelling better" this year
10. Ethiopia: question marks on Cox Plate as a form race for this, but from that race have it ahead of Green Moon
14. Green Moon: Would have to be a complete forget run in the Cox Plate, but was ~3rd favourite before that race for a reason.
15. Maluckyday: 2nd pick, best run in the best formline race of the last few years (although obviously this years edition was quite different)
16. Mourayan: Hardest to place for mine. Could win or run bottom four as far as I can tell. Don't particularly like it but cant put a line through it.
19. Tac De Boistron: Probably no hope on this track, which the odds seem to suggest, but think it has to be overs at the moment.
Thanks Seth for running this. Ive lurked this thread the last few years and its always a huge help. Massive props!
Good luck all.
EDIT: 24. Kelinni: Hard to have it after the way GCG smashed it in the Metrop, but it seemed a different horse in the Lexus (I gave it no chance in that going in) and it obviously has the tiny weight. Similar thoughts to Mourayan, hard to have but not prepared to rule out.
Then the 0/61 stat is good enough for me... lines through 7,8,11,12
Also, lines through 21,22 because they couldnt even place in the Moonee Valley Cup.
So in racebook order ive got the chances as:
2. Americian: top pick, based mainly on the last two races Dunaden won here
4. Red Cadeaux: third pick, love the weight swing with Dunaden and is "travelling better" this year
10. Ethiopia: question marks on Cox Plate as a form race for this, but from that race have it ahead of Green Moon
14. Green Moon: Would have to be a complete forget run in the Cox Plate, but was ~3rd favourite before that race for a reason.
15. Maluckyday: 2nd pick, best run in the best formline race of the last few years (although obviously this years edition was quite different)
16. Mourayan: Hardest to place for mine. Could win or run bottom four as far as I can tell. Don't particularly like it but cant put a line through it.
19. Tac De Boistron: Probably no hope on this track, which the odds seem to suggest, but think it has to be overs at the moment.
Thanks Seth for running this. Ive lurked this thread the last few years and its always a huge help. Massive props!
Good luck all.
EDIT: 24. Kelinni: Hard to have it after the way GCG smashed it in the Metrop, but it seemed a different horse in the Lexus (I gave it no chance in that going in) and it obviously has the tiny weight. Similar thoughts to Mourayan, hard to have but not prepared to rule out.
HurlsMeister18
Club Legend
It's finally here 
I'm sticking with ETHIOPIA in the big one, am on him at 51's and I think he will be charging home down the outside and grab KELLINI/ MOUNT ATHOS/ MALUCKYDAY on the line. Boxed Tri for the cup is 8,10,12,15,17,24 for 25%. Going to risk DUNADEN and AMERICAIN with the big weights.
For the rest of the card
R1 VILLA VERDE ftw
R2 SPIN THE BOTTLE e/w
R3 GARUD will also throw MR LOWNDES in for some value
R4 CLASSY CHLOE e/w way over the odds at $18, only bad race she has ever ran was two starts ago at caulfield where she drew barrier 1 and never got any room to do anything.
R5 SISTINE DEMON after a good first up run should improve heaps here today.
R6 ANGELIC LIGHT
R7 ETHIOPIA
R8 Hard to go past LIGHTINTHENIGHT but I reckon ECLAIR SUPRISE is great each way value at around the $10 mark.
R9 DEUCE BIGELOW e/w ran a corker of a race first up behind FREERETURN at the valley over 1000 and steps up to 1200 today and with only 54 kegs should be finishing like a rocket.
R10 SNITSKY sydney horse that is flying and I will also have the Queensland horse BESEECH each way for some value who is absolutely flying at the moment.
I'm sticking with ETHIOPIA in the big one, am on him at 51's and I think he will be charging home down the outside and grab KELLINI/ MOUNT ATHOS/ MALUCKYDAY on the line. Boxed Tri for the cup is 8,10,12,15,17,24 for 25%. Going to risk DUNADEN and AMERICAIN with the big weights.
For the rest of the card
R1 VILLA VERDE ftw
R2 SPIN THE BOTTLE e/w
R3 GARUD will also throw MR LOWNDES in for some value
R4 CLASSY CHLOE e/w way over the odds at $18, only bad race she has ever ran was two starts ago at caulfield where she drew barrier 1 and never got any room to do anything.
R5 SISTINE DEMON after a good first up run should improve heaps here today.
R6 ANGELIC LIGHT
R7 ETHIOPIA
R8 Hard to go past LIGHTINTHENIGHT but I reckon ECLAIR SUPRISE is great each way value at around the $10 mark.
R9 DEUCE BIGELOW e/w ran a corker of a race first up behind FREERETURN at the valley over 1000 and steps up to 1200 today and with only 54 kegs should be finishing like a rocket.
R10 SNITSKY sydney horse that is flying and I will also have the Queensland horse BESEECH each way for some value who is absolutely flying at the moment.
PieBeast
Brownlow Medallist
Having a big crack at the quaddie with a mate 25%
1,2,4,8,10,12,15,17,20,23
1,2,11,12,13
6,7,8,9,14,15,18,21,23
2,3,6,7,9,12,13,16
Good luck all.
1,2,4,8,10,12,15,17,20,23
1,2,11,12,13
6,7,8,9,14,15,18,21,23
2,3,6,7,9,12,13,16
Good luck all.
Rooster Cogburn
Premiership Player
- Dec 16, 2010
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Ha ha great comment but very accurate.
the old school campaign - sneaky run in Caulfield Cup an then a tune up in the Mackinnon.
i like the horse but think it might be a rung or two below them.
If there was a market about your horse running top 10 (as they do with prizemoney) I'd be slamming Zabby
Rooster you laughing at the idea of someone even attempting a S6 on a day like today or something else?
Assertive Eagle...
Rooster Cogburn
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Yep, exactly that.
Though I will be hitting him up for a house deposit if it wins.
The_Doctor
Club Legend
- Jul 23, 2009
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There is. He is paying $2.35 at Sportingbet
Backed Mt.Athos months ago and have kept at it.
r2 tri 1,2/1,2,3,6,7,8,9,10,11,16 for 25%
r2 tri 1,2/1,2,3,6,7,8,9,10,11,16 for 25%
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Lol good luck...if you're right your a master, but i suspect that none of those will run a place.
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