GC could well prefer to take the compo pick, as it will help them achieve the goal of reducing their list numbers.
After another season it may be clearer to them who will stay and who will go.
How long do they have to keep Cambell (spud) Brown for.
Well, that's what I'm hoping. The compo allows them to keep a player such as Mav Weller etc for another year to see if they develop. However if you believe the latest, Caddy is all but secured to Collingwood. the most common trade agreements seem to involve Wellingham.
So GC essentially have the choice of three different scenarios each with their advantages and disadvantages:
Caddy to St. Kilda = first round pick (approx pick 13?)
Simple swap, clean and easy. Saints might be able to finagle Toy as well. The advantage to GC is the immediate use of a quality draft pick in what is said to be a strong draft.
Caddy to Geelong = compo pick
Once again, quick and painless. Directly addresses GC's list squeeze with a pick that could be as good as pick 5-7 (most likely pick 8-10, I hope that as low as it goes!)
Caddy to Collingwood = Wellingham + second round pick
Wellingham is young and hasnt hit his ceiling yet. The second round pick can be bundled with another player for a higher draft pick. Doesn't make their list any smaller, but if that's his preference he'll end up there.